Presentation on the benefits of Kalabagh Dam and addressing concerns

PRESENTATION TO OFFICERS OF KHARIAN GARRISONPRESENTATION TO OFFICERS OF KHARIAN GARRISON
June 25, 2005June 25, 2005
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
WATER RESOURCES AND ISSUES

2
PAKISTAN’S NEED FOR LARGE DAMS
• WATER SCARCE COUNTRY AS PER GLOBAL
CRITERIA
• RAPIDLY INCREASING POPULATION
• DEPLETING ON-LINE STORAGES
• LARGE ESCAPAGES OF UNCONTROLLED FLOOD
FLOWS IN SEA
• EFFECTIVE RIVER REGULATION AND INTEGRATION
OF EXISTING IRRIGATION SYSTEM

3
WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991
PARA-6
THE NEED FOR STORAGES, WHEREEVER
FEASIBLE ON THE INDUS AND OTHER
RIVERS WAS ADMITTED AND RECOGNIZED
BY THE PARTICIPANTS FOR PLANNED
FUTURE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

4
WATER DEMAND
• POPULATION 2005 141 million
2025 220 million
• URBAN POPULATION Currently 35%
2025 60%
• TOTAL AREA 196 M ACRES
CULTIVABLE 77 MA
CULTIVATED 54.5 MA
REMAINING 22.5 MA Needs Add. Water
• To increase the crop yield requires additional water.
• Net Crop Water Requirement 2003-4 77.4 MAF
2010-11 89 MAF
2024-25 114.64 MAF
• Domestic Demand Currently≈ 4.0 MAF
2025 ≈ 10.5MAF

5
WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH
5260
3888
2751
2129
1555
1282
1066
915
858
34
46
65
84
115
139.5
195.5
167.72
208.4
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2010 2020 2025
YEAR
PERCAPITAAVAILABILITY(M)3
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
PER CAPITA
AVAILIBILITY
POPULATION
GROWTH
WATERAVAILABILITY(MAF)
POPULATION(Million)
1234 m3
2004
151.11 Million
(2004)

6
ARABIAN SEA
Chenab
River
DISPUTED
TERRITORY
IN
D
U
S
RIVER
KABUL RIVER
Ravi River
JhelumRiver
Sutlej River
LEGEND
MOUNTAINS
DESERTS
AREA UNDER
IRRIGATION
AREA THAT
CAN BE BROUGHT
UNDER IRRIGATION
CATEGORY AREA (MA)
GEOGRAPHICAL AREA 196.0
AREA SUITABLE FOR AGRICULTURE 77.1
CULTIVATED AREA
(IRRIGATED + BARANI)
54.5
AREA UNDER IRRIGATION
(BY ALL SOURCES)
44.4
ADDITIONAL AREA THAT CAN BE
BROUGHT UNDER IRRIGATED
AGRICULTURE
22.5
SOURCE: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS OF PAKISTAN 1998-99
LAND USE IN PAKISTAN
IndusRiver
Sindh 3.6 MA
Punjab 4.3 MA
NWFP 3.0 MA
Baloch. 11.6 MA
TOTAL 22.5 MA

7
AVAILABILITY
 From Western Rivers at RIM Stations 141 MAF
 Above Rim Stations 5 MAF
TOTAL 146 MAF
USES
 Above RIM Stations 5 MAF
 Canal Diversion 106 MAF
TOTAL 111 MAF
BALANCE AVAILABLE 35 MAF
WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN

8
ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRI
HYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH
30.39 29.81
9.68
45.91
29.55
26.90
17.53
52.86
17.22
42.34
53.29
81.49
29.11
91.83
62.76
45.40
0.77 1.93
20.18
69.08
33.79 35.15
2.37
8.83
20.79
80.59
20.10
10.98
0
20
40
60
80
100
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
YEARS
ANNUALDISCHARGE(MAF)
AVG. (34.7)
Source: WRMD WAPDA
Source: WRMD WAPDA based on data supplied by Govt. of Sindh
April 2005 1.6 MAF
May 2005 0.74 MAF
2.34 MAF

9
RESERVOIR
GROSS STORAGE
CAPACITY
(MAF)
GROSS STORAGE LOSS
ORIGINAL YEAR 2004
YEAR 2004
(MAF)
YEAR 2010
(MAF)
YEAR 2025
(MAF)
TARBELA
11.62
(1974)
8.36 (72%) 3.26 (28%) 3.95 (34%) 5.51 (47%)
MANGLA 5.88 (1967) 4.64 (78%) 1.24 (22%) 1.60 (27%) 1.97 (34%)
CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.48 (55%) 0.39 (45%) 0.58 (55%) 0.50 (57%)
TOTAL 18.37 13.48 (73%) 4.89 (27%) 6.03 (33%) 7.98 (43%)
RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF)

10
KALABAGH DAM PROJECT
NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
IN SOME COUNTRIES
Country
Total No. of Dams
Above 50 Ft. Above 200 Ft.
CHINA 253 59
TURKEY 113 22
INDIA 28 6
IRAN 52 28
JAPAN 97 35
PAKISTAN 4 1 (Gomal Dam)
Source: ICOLD register of Dams

11
WARSAK DAMWARSAK DAM
NowsherNowsher
aa
LahoreLahore
A
F
G
H
A
N
IS
T
A
N
A
F
G
H
A
N
IS
T
A
N
Rivi
Rivi
CHASHMA
BARRAGE
MANGLA DAM
JAMMU AND KASHMIR
(DISPUTED TERRITORY)
Sringar
Jammu
ISLAMABAD
Skardu
Gilgit
Chitral
AttockPeshawar
Rawalpindi
Kalabagh
Dera Ismail Khan
Gujranwala
Faisalabad
IN
D
IA
IN
D
IA
Jheium
River
River
Chenab
River
Soan River
Indus River
IndusRiver
LOCATION MAP DAMS
TARBELA DAM
BASHA
DAM
BASHA
DAM
KALABAGH
DAM
KALABAGH
DAM
TARBELA DAM
TARBELA DAM

13
KALABAGH DAM PROJECT LAYOUT

14
SALIENT FEATURES
• Dam Type Earth Core Rock Fill
• Gross Storage 7.9 MAF
• Live Storage 6.1 MAF
• Dam Height 260 ft.
• Power 3600 MW
• Cost $ 6.0 Billion
• No Canal Outlets from Dam
• It Will Function As Seasonal Carry Over Dam

15
(Current Status)
• Feasibility Report 1984
• PC-I submitted (1989) Approval pending
• Project Planning Studies Completed
• Completion Time 6 Years

16
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
PROVINCE
POPULATION *
TO BE
RESETTLED
LAND AFFECTED (ACRES)
BARANI IRRIGATED TOTAL
PUNJAB 78,000 21,600 2,900 24,500
N.W.F.P 42,000 2,900 100 3,000
TOTAL 120,000 24,500 3,000 27,500
* December 1999 (Being updated)

COST ESTIMATES (US $ Million)
Sr
No
Description July 1987 Prices
Escalated to
Dec. 2004 Prices
1 Diversions & Embankment/Dam 554.1 850
2 Spillways & Outlet Works 476.9 750
3 Power Features 684.7 750
4 Transmission/Collector Station 111.7 125
5 Resettlement 225.7 700
6 Preliminary Works 289.7 250
Sub Total 2342.8 3,420
7 Contingencies @ 10% 234.3 342
Sub Total 2577.1 3,762
8 Engg. & Admin.@ 10% 257.7 376.2
Total 2834.8 4,138.2
9 Financial Costs @ 40% 1133.9 1653.3
10 Excise & Custom Duties @ 5% 141.7 206.9
GRAND TOTAL 4110.4 5998.4
Say 6.0 Billion

19
APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP
APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION
• POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF
NOWSHERA TOWN AND
PESHAWAR VALLEY IN CASE OF
UNPRECEDENTED FLOOD
• MODERN FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM
WOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WARNING
AGAINST FLOODS
• TARBELA IS ALSO ON LINE NOW
• DRAINAGE OF MARDAN, PABBI
AND SWABI WILL BE
ADVERSELY AFFECTED
• CONSERVATION LEVEL OF KALABAGH
DAM IS 915 FT WHICH IS LOWER THAN
THE LOWEST GROUND LEVEL OF
MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI SCARP
AREAS
• FERTILE CULTIVATED LAND
WOULD BE SUBMERGED
• 2,900 ACRES OF BARANI LAND AND
ONLY 100 ACRES OF IRRIGATED LAND
WOULD BE SUBMERGED IN THE
RESERVOIR
• LARGE POPULATION WOULD BE
DISPLACED
• RESETTLEMENT PLAN WOULD ENSURE
PROPER COMPENSATION TO THE
AFFECTEES
PUNJAB NWFP TOTAL
NO. OF AFFECTEES 78,000 42,000 120,000
LAND AFFECTED (Acres) 24,500 3,000 27,500

20
3 – D VIEW OF NOWSHERA VALLEY

21
L-SECTION OF KABUL RIVER
MAX. CONS. LEVEL:
915

22
DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH
910
930
950
970
990
1010
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
SWABI
CHARSADDA
PABBI
NOWSHERA
MARDAN
RESERVOIR RETENATION
EL. 915
DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES
LEVELINFEET
955 960
940
970
1000

23
MODIFICATIONS
MODIFICATION IMPACT
Maximum Conservation Level • Effective Drainage Outlet of:
Original 925 Ft. Charsada 955 Ft.
Reduced 915 Ft. Pabbi 960 Ft.
Nowshera 940 Ft.
Mardan 970 Ft.
Swabi 1000 Ft.
• Reduction in Storage Capacity from 7
MAF to 6.1 MAF
No Canal outlets from Dam It will function as seasonal Carry over Dam

24
KABUL RIVER SECTION KM-4
(7420 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

25
(9270 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

26
(4270 FT UPSTREAM OF ZARA MIANA)

27
(6230 FT DOWNSTREAM OF ZARA MIANA)

28
(7860 FT UPSTREAM OF MIAN ISA)

29
(1640 FT DOWNSTREAM OF MIAN ISA)

31
APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH
•NO WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR
FILLING KALABAGH RESERVOIR
• AVERAGE ANNUAL OUTFLOW BELOW
KOTRI IS 34.7 MAF
• MOST CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE SHOWS
15 MAF FOR STORAGE / DEVELOPMENT
• ABOUT 6 MAF IS JUST REPLACEMENT
FOR TARBELA, MANGLA AND CHASHMA
DUE TO SEDIMENTATION
•SINDH WOULD BE CONVERTED INTO
A DESERT
• AFTER MANGLA & TARBELA DAMS,
SINDH CANAL WITHDRAWALS
INCREASED FROM 37.20 MAF TO 44.47
MAF
• CANAL WITHDRAWALS FOR SINDH
WOULD FURTHER INCREASE BY 2 MAF
AFTER KALABAGH

32
• RIVERINE AREA WOULD GO OUT OF
PRODUCTION DUE TO CONTROL OVER
RIVER
• FLOOD PEAKS IN EXCESS OF 300,000
CUSECS WOULD STILL BE COMING
• ASSURED WATER SUPPLY THROUGH
PROPOSED TUBEWELLS WILL BE MADE
ROUND THE YEAR
• INDUS DELTA MANGROVE FOREST
WOULD VANISH
• ONLY 7,000 ACRES OUT OF 294,000
ACRES MANGROVE FOREST ARE IN
INDUS ACTIVE DELTA ESTABLISHED
THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
• NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AS REQUIRED MINIMUM WATER (AS PER
LATEST STUDIES) WILL STILL BE
FLOWING BELOW KOTRI

33
• FISH PRODUCTION BELOW KOTRI
WOULD BE AFFECTED
• No EVIDENCE ESTABLISHES THIS
APPREHENSION AS FISH PRODUCTION
INCREASED
• MARINE FISH (THOUSAND TONS)
- 1995 283 - 1999 351
- 1996 270 - 2000 308
- 1997 292 - 2001 315
- 1998 303
• STUDY REQUIRED TO DETERMINE
ESCAPAGE DOWNSTREAM KOTRI
• TWO STUDIES: (I) TO DETERMINE THE
MINIMUM ESCAPAGES REQUIRED BELOW
KOTRI TO CHECK SEA INTRUSION
• (II) TO ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONCERNS BELOW KOTRI ARE
UNDERWAY
• THE THIRD STUDY ON ENVIRONMENTAL
CONCERNS OF ALL THE FOUR
PROVINCES IS ALSO TAKEN UP

34
• Royalty from Kalabagh would go to
Punjab although the Project would be
Federally Funded
• It is a Constitutional Matter.
• Desilt Tarbela Instead of Building
Kalabagh Dam
• Desilting Tarbela Reservoir not a
practical option
• Save 40-50 MAF lost in seepage through
Canal System Lining
• Lining is Complementary to Storage
• Lining is expensive and time taking. It
is not completely effective.
• Seepage from Canals in fresh ground
water areas is not a loss as it is being
pumped out.
• It would not be a carry over storage
and no additional water. It would
improve availability at tails.

35
ANNUAL BENEFITS
1.
Irrigation Water
Supplies
@ Rs. 2054/AF
6.1 x 2054 = Rs. 12.53 Billion
2
Power Benefits @
Rs. 4.00/Unit
11.736 x 4 = Rs. 46.944 Billion
3 Flood Control 1.50 Billion
Total Rs. 60.97 Billion

36
THE INDUS DELTA
MANGROVES AND LANDFORMS

37
SEASON-WISE AND ANNUAL CANAL HEAD
WITHDRAWALS OF SINDH (1962-63 TO 1999-2000)
SEASON
PRE-
MANGLA
(1962-67)
AVERAGE
PRE-
TARBELA
(1967-76)
AVERAGE
POST-
TARBELA
(1976-2000)
AVERAGE
ADDITIONAL
WATER FOR
SINDH AFTER
MANGLA AND
TARBELA
KHARIF 26.16 28.66 29.45 3.29 12.6%
RABI 11.04 12.19 15.02 3.98 36.1%
TOTAL 37.20 40.85 44.47 7.27 19.5%

38
HOW SOON CONSTRUCTION CAN START ?
• All designs & Tender Documents ready –
Need Updating
• Revised Environmental/Resettlement Studies
Underway.
• Preliminary Works i.e. Access Roads,
Colonies etc. can start right away.
• Actual Construction can start in early 2006.

OTHER PLANNED PROJECTS
• BASHA DAM
• AKHORI DAM
• SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM

40
BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT
LAYOUT PLAN/CONFIGURATION

41
SALIENT FEATURES
• Concrete Gravity Dam (Roller Compacted)
Endorsed by Panel of Experts
• Gross Storage 9.04 MAF
• Live Storage 7.34 MAF
• Dam Height 281 Meters (922
ft)
• Power 4500 MW
• Cost (Approx.) $ 6.721 Billion
• Construction Period 7 Years

42
(CURRENT STATUS)
• Feasibility Report Submitted Aug 2004
• Detailed Design Dec. 2007
• Prepare Tenders, Advertise Jun 2007 to
Mar 2008
Evaluate & Award
• Up-gradation of KKH June 2008
• Commencement of Construction 2008
• Completion 2015

43
UPGRADATION / RELOCATION OF KKH FOR
BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT
Hasanabdal
Lengthof Section
40km
281
km
94 km

44
KKH UPGRADATION & RELOCATION
325 KM KKH TO UPGRADED RS 9423 M.
140 KM KKH TO BE REPLACED
RS 14333 M.
 7 CONTRACT PACKAGES FOR
UPGRADATION WOULD REQUIRE AT
LEAST THREE YEARS .
.

45
S.
No
CALENDER YEAR (JAN-DEC)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1 Feasibility Study Stage-I
2 Pre-qualification, Evaluation &
Award of Contract for Stage-II
3 Preparation of Tender Documents
and Detail Engineering
4 Additional Investigation Studies
and Model Testing
5 Pre-construction Activities
Land Acquisition, Up-gradation of
KKH
6 Tendering Process Up to Award
7 Mobilization of Contractor
8 Construction Activities
9 Rehabilitation/ Resettlement
including Relocation of KKH
BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTBASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT
OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULEOVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

47
AKHORI DAM PROJECT
SALIENT FEATURES*
RESERVOIR
GROSS STORAGE 7 MAF
LIVE STORAGE 6 MAF
POND AREA 56,500 ACRES
MAIN DAM
CREST LEVEL 1470 FT
MAXIMUM HEIGHT 420 FT
LENGTH 17,000 FT
CONVEYANCE SYSTEM
CHANNEL CAPACITY 60,000 CUSECS
LENGTH 20 MILES
POWER POTENTIAL 600 MW
(2100 GWh Per
Year)
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
LAND SUMBERGED 59,217 ACRES
POPULATION 49,320
ESTIMATED COST (Updated) US $ 3.31
BILLION* As per Appraisal Study Report 2002

48
AKHORI DAM PROJECT
IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
AWARD OF CONSULTANCY FOR FEASIBILITY STUDY TO
M/S TECHNO CONSULTANTS & HPE JOINT VENTURE - AUGUST 2003
Duration
(Years) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
KEY ACTIVITIES
2008 2009 2015
D.
FEASIBILITY
STUDIES AND PC-I
DETAILED ENGG.
DESIGN &
TENDER
DOCUMENTS
TENDERING,
EVALUATION &
AWARD
0.75
2
2011
2
2012
E. MOBILIZATION BY
CONTRACTORS 0.5
F. CONSTRUCTION 6
C. ADDITIONAL
EXPLORATIONS,
STUDIES &
MODEL TESTING
2
2014
A.
B.
20132010

49
SKARDU DAM
Skardu
Shigar
Airport
SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM PROJECT
SKARDU DAM SITE

50
Airport
Right Bank
KILOMETER
METER
(Through Air-Port)
X-SECTION A-A
RESERVOIR AREA
SKARDU DAM PROJECT
Width = 47 m
Length = 3658 m
Elevation = 2232 m
Left Bank
Road
River Surface
2258 Meters (Capacity=8.0 MAF)
Normal Res. Level

51
PROJECT
Water
Availability
(MAF) /Year
Live
Storage
(MAF )
Power
Potential
(MW)
Logistic
Problem
Power
Dispersal
KALABAGH 90 6.10 3600 LEAST NEAREST
BASHA
50 7.34 4500 MORE
VERY
DIFFICULT
AKHORI 14 6.00 600 LESS NEAREST
SKARDU/
KATZARA
27 5.2 PF - MAX.
MOST
DIFFICULT
COMPARISON OF PROPOSED DAMS 1 of 3

52
PROJECT
Construct-
ability
Start of
construction
Water
availability
for irrigation
Seismicity
KALABAGH
ECRD
EASY
IMMEDIATELY
DESIGN &
TENDER DOC.
READY
EARLY LESS
BASHA RCC
DIFFICULT
2008 LATE MORE
AKHORI
ECRD
EASY
2010 EARLY LESS
SKARDU/
KATZARA
NOT
DECIDED
YET
2015
(UNCERTAIN)
VERY LATE MORE

53
Projects
ENVIRONMENTAL
Project
Cost
$ Billion
Persons
Displaced
Approx.
Roads Affected
Land
Submergence
(Acres)
KALABAGH 120,000 Minor 110,200 6.0
BASHA
24,000
KKH –
Submerges 110 Km
Upgradation 320 Km
32,000 6.721
AKHORI 49,300 97 Km 59,200 3.31
SKARDU/
KATZARA
100,000
Submergence 40 Km
Upgradation 680 Km
55,000
P.F. Sept
2005

54
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT
• AT 8% GROWTH RATE POWER
SHORTAGE LIKELY FROM 2006
• IN PAST 20 YEARS HYDROPOWER
SHARE REDUCED FROM 60% TO 34%
• THERMAL POWER GENERATION BEING
SEVERAL TIMES AS EXPENSIVE, THE
ELECTRICITY TARIFF HAS GONE UP
• HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IS ABOUT
40,000 MW

55
INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Pre-WAPDA
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Fiscal Year
MegaWatts
WAPDA Hydel WAPDA Thermal IPPs Total
119 MW
17312 MW
6459 MW(37.33%) 4779 MW(27.61%) 6070 MW(35.06%) 17312 MW

56
EXISTING HYDROPOWER PROJECTS
Project
Capacity
(MW)
River
Capability (MW)
Summer Winter
Warsak 240 Kabul 195 145
Mangla 1000 Jhelum 1020 120
Tarbela 3478 Indus 3691 560
Ghazi Brotha 1450 Indus 1450 580
Chashma 184 Indus 184 65
Small Hydropower 108 68 30
Total 6463 6608 1500

57
PROPOSED HYDROPOWER PROJECT
MAIN (INDUS RIVER)
Kalabagh
Feasibility, Design Ready
3600 (MW)
Basha
Feasibility Ready
4500 (MW)
Skardu
Pre-Feasibility Under Study
-

58
RANKING OF HYDRO POWR SCHEME
ADDED AFTER BASHA
RANK PROJECT RIVER
POWER
(MW)
1 DASU INDUS 3700
2 BUNJI INDUS 5400
3 THAKOT INDUS 1043
4 PATAN INDUS 1172
5 RAKHIOT INDUS 670
6 YULBO INDUS 710
7 KALANGAI SWAT 256
8 KOHALA JHELUM 740
9 MUNDA SWAT 740
10 KAROT JHELUM 240

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