jwb_cv_Mar15

Joe Bull Consultant
Joe.Bull@sdgworld.net | CV | 1 of 6
I have been at Steer Davies Gleave 2 years sincejoiningon the graduate
scheme. In this time I have worked on a number of projects across sectors,
but particularly focused on aviation,rail and infrastructure. The majority of
this experience has been in demand forecastingthrough a variety of
approaches acrossmodes and geographies. Prior to this,I completed a
Masters in Mathematics at the University of Nottingham where my studies
included a wide range of subjectareas to enhance a variety of skills,but
focused especially on areas within applied mathematics. This mathematical
background means I am well suited to analytical and computational work,
however, I am equally comfortablewith more creative and communicative
roles.
Qualifications
MMath Mathematics (2012)
University ofNottingham
Languages
English (Native)
Background
A Master’s Degree in maths has given Joe the assuranceand ability to work
analytically and logically with unfamiliar concepts. This study included a wide
range of subjectareas to enhance a variety of skills,butparticularly focused
on areas within applied maths.Simulation work and modelling that was
performed previously in his university dissertation has enabled Joeto create
complex models and to interpret and translatethe results of such models.
Relevant Skills
Demand & Revenue Forecasting
Joe has designed and created demand and revenue forecasting models across
modes for aviation,rail and infrastructureprojects. For aviation this has
included elasticity based forecasts of passengers and air transportmovements
for Stansted and BirminghamAirports.Within rail forecastingJoehas
developed revenue and the supportingmodels in work for the DfT on the East
Coastfranchiseprocurement. This suitehas additionally looked in model
specific detail atcrowding,timetable change benefits and forecastloads,
drawingon a wide range of rail specificprograms and datasets.
Scheduling and Air Traffic Forecasts
Joe has generated a number of air traffic forecasts and detailed average-day
and busy-day schedules for a range of potential scenarios acrossManchester
and Stansted Airports in supportingthe MAG submission for the Davies
Commission.He has created similar forecasts and schedules for a number of
regional UK airports includingEastMidlandsand Birmingham.This required
comprehensive analysis of the OAG database,historical fleetreplacements,
market trends and flightpatterns at a range of similarly sized international
airports across Europe.
Appraisal
Joe has also gained experienceat Steer Davies Gleave in a number of pieces of
further appraisal work. He has developed demand and revenue forecasts for a
number of appraisals for rail electrification schemes in the North West of
England, focusingparticularly on benefits to crowdingand potential timetable
improvements as a result. Joe has builta mode choice demand forecasting

Joe Bull Consultant
model for a proposed High Speed Rail linein the US to produce R&R
Investment Grade Central and Equity Cases for the scheme. Additionally Joe
has worked with operatingcosts for Greenford branch options and led the
correspondingappraisals.
Regulations and Reporting
Within aviation,Joehas experience of supportingthe European Commission
on the mid-term Evaluation of the Airport Charges Regulation and
Regulations relatingto Aviation and MaritimeSecurity Inspections.His
primary rolewas in European stakeholder consultations involvingairports,
airlineorganisations and Member States, assessingprogress madein attaining
the objectives of the Directive, Joe has demonstrated further reporting in
providingevaluation reports for bidder performance models used in the
Crossrail Concession award.

Joe Bull Consultant
Projects Summary
Project Client Year/Location Role
Aviation
Transactionsand
Regulatory Policy
Aviation and MaritimeSecurity
Inspections
European Commission (DG MOVE) 2015/ UK Analyst
Sendai AirportSecondary
Forecasts
Confidential 2015/ UK Analyst
KastelliAirportAir Traffic
Forecasts
Confidential 2014/ UK Analyst
SantiagoAirport Concession Confidential 2014/ UK Analyst
Manchester AirportGroup
Davies Commission Advice
Manchester AirportGroup (MAG) 2013-14/ UK
Analyst/Project
Manager
Birmingham AirportAir Traffic
Forecasts
Birmingham AirportLtd 2013/ UK Analyst
Mid-term Evaluation of
Regulation 2009/12/EC on
airport charges
European Commission (DG MOVE) 2013/UK Analyst
Rail
2015 Fares Changes Department for Transport 2015/UK Analyst
Greenford Branch Options Department for Transport 2015/UK Analyst
NW England Rail Electrification
Appraisals
Department for Transport 2014-15/ UK Analyst
Open Access Entry Impact
Assessment
Department for Transport 2014-15/ UK Analyst
Southern Access to Heathrow
Conditional Output
Heathrow(AH) Ltd 2014/ UK Project Manager
CrossrailConcessionTechnical
Advisory Services
Transportfor London 2014/ UK Technical Assessor
ICEC TechnicalAdvisorSupport Department for Transport 2013-14/ UK Modeller/Assessor
Thameslink FranchiseBid MTR Corporation 2013/ UK Analyst
HS2 CommercialAnalysis:
Market Analysis (WP5)
HS2 Ltd 2013/ UK Analyst
Northern LineExtension
Business CaseSupport
Transportfor London 2013/ UK Analyst
Transport
Infrastructure
R&R Audit for Texas CentralHSL
– Phase2
Rubicon Infrastructure Advisors 2014/ UK Analyst
Indiana TollRoad Operating
Concession
Goldman Sachs 2013/ UK Analyst
Research and
Innovation
Market andDemand Research National Express Group PLC 2015/UK Analyst
Response oftraveldemandto
the recession and recovery
Internal 2013/UK Analyst

Joe Bull Consultant
Selected Projects
ICEC Technical Advisor Support
Client Department for Transport (DfT)
Year/Location 2013-14/UK
PositionHeld Analyst/Modeller
In the East Coast franchise procurement, Steer Davies Gleave was appointedas technicaladvisor to
the DfT entailing creationof the comparator suite for phase 1 andanalysis of the bids usedto award
the franchise in phase 2. Joe’s role onphase 1 lasted approximately9 months and consisted ofthe
creation andoperationof the revenue andcrowding models for the comparator suite, alongwith the
necessarysub-models. This focusedlargelyonanalysisof large data sets inLENNON andMOIRA and
was subject to a successful and rigorous external audit. During the bidevaluationphase whichlasted
for a further 5 months, Joe took a leadingrole on demand and revenue analysis and the
consequential riskadjustments for the bid evaluation phase across all bidders, involving the creation
of a number of bespoke models. Joe contributedthisanalysisto reports and provideda modelling
suite handover to the Department for the winning bidder. He also generated the financialbusiness
case outputs for a number of sensitivitiesbetweenthe bidder and comparator modelling suites.
MAG Davies CommissionAdvice
Client Manchester Airport Group(MAG)
PositionHeld Analyst
Steer DaviesGleave wasinvited to provide air traffic forecasting support to MAG inrelationto its
submissionto the DaviesCommissionfor Stansted and Manchester airports. Joe built the long-term
forecastingmodel, able to drawon experience of modelling similar forecasts for BirminghamAirport.
This modelcombined bottom-upandtop-downforecasts. As pieces of follow-onwork, Steer Davies
Gleave was commissionedbyMAG to developcurrent andfuture average-dayandbusy-day
schedules for Stansted, Manchester, East Midlands and Bournemouthairports basedon the traffic
forecasts for a range of possible scenarios involvingreactions to changes at other UKairports and
next-generationaircraft noise. Joe gained experience of project managing ona piece of follow-on
work for East Midlands andBournemouthaverage weekschedulesas a result ofthis project.
NW England Rail ElectrificationAppraisals
Steer DaviesGleave were commissionedto provide appraisals of a number of electrification schemes
in the NorthWest of England. The work includedthe development of train service specifications,
demandandrevenue forecasts, operatingcosts andWebTAG compliant appraisals. Joe’s role onthis
was to assessthe revenue and benefits ofeachscheme for timetable andcrowdingimprovements as
a result of individual demandforecasts for eachproposedoption. He provided internal data relating
to the operatingcosts of expectednew stock.
R&R Audit for Texas Central HSL – Phase 2
Client Texas Central High-SpeedRailwayLLC, RubiconInfrastructure Advisors
Year/Location 2014/UK
Steer DaviesGleave were advisors for ridershipandrevenue in support of the TexasCentral High-
SpeedRailwayProject whichincludedproduction ofanCentral andEquityCase investment forecasts.
Joe constructedthe mode choice demandmodel usedto produce these forecasts andprovided

Joe Bull Consultant
critical analysisof the previous Investment Grade Studyundertakenbyanalternative consultancy.
Joe alsocontributed this analysis to the report onthe potential for the proposedHighSpeedLine in
Texas.
Kastelli Airport Air Traffic Forecasts
Client Confidential
For the proposedconstructionandoperationof KastelliAirport onCrete as analternative to Iraklion,
Steer DaviesGleave were appointed to informmaster planning advice throughthe generationof
detailedshort-term annualforecasts, longterm forecasts andpeakrequirements for passengers,
movements andstands. Joe played a role in each ofthese forecasts, contributing particularlyto the
overall modellingand generationandevolutionof the peakrequirements.
Crossrail ConcessionTechnical AdvisoryService
Steer DaviesGleave were appointed as performance evaluators in the Crossrail Concession bid
evaluationphase, where the operating performance modelssubmittedbyeachbidder were subject
to technical assessment reports to inform the evaluators for award. Joe’s role was thorough
assessment of a bidder’s performance model against their record of assumptions anddeliveryplan,
and investigationintothe suitabilityof the modelling process. Joe alsoreportedandconcisely
summarisedthe keyperformance indicators across the bidders.
OpenAccess Entry Impact Assessment
In relationto workon the IntercityEast Coast Franchise, Steer Davies Gleave were askedto estimate
the impact of anadditional open accessoperator being granted paths onthe East Coast Mainline
during the subsequent Franchise periodas well as the impact on letting the Franchise inthe future.
Joe analysedandreportedthe revenue andcrowding impacts ofthis for the affectedTOCs for several
likelyscenarios.
Reviewof the Airport Charges Directive
Client EuropeanCommission(DG MOVE)
Steer DaviesGleave wasawardeda contract withthe EuropeanCommissionto conduct analysis of
the applicationof Directive 2009/12/ECon airport charges, assessing progress made in attaining the
objectives of the Directive to support the Commission. A large component of thisinvolvedeffective
consultation ofMember States andkeystakeholders. Joe took a leadingrole inthis stakeholder
consultation, whichcomprised more than80 contacts from EU States. Joe also created the
framework for analysing stakeholder responses. Inadditionto the consultation, Joe undertook
analysis of the difference ina number of airport chargesfrom before andafter the introductionof
the Directive, contributingthese findings to the ECreport.
Birmingham Airport Air Traffic Forecasts

Joe Bull Consultant
Client BirminghamAirport Ltd
Steer DaviesGleave wascommissionedto developindependent long-term air traffic forecasts for
internal business planning, to inform shareholders andto support the external Davies Commission
submissions. Joe’s role wasto developanduse a top-downforecastingmodel for thispurpose. He
was able to produce forecasts for a range of potential long-term scenarios.
Indiana Toll Road Operating Concession
Client Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs requireda report on the present andpotential future traffic andrevenue positionof
Indiana Toll Road. The vast majorityof the worktherefore wasto build a demandforecastingmodel
which calculated passenger demand andfare revenue as far as 2063. Joe wasthe principal model
builder and created the architecture for thismodel, while alsosourcingthe inputs, and defining
options for the modeloutputs. Since this was a cross office project witha small team, Joe had to
communicate efficientlywiththe Bostonoffice throughout.
Response of travel demand to the recessionand recovery
Client Internal
In a reintroductionof research projects, Joe was anintegral part of aninternal research project
focusing onhow roadtravel has changed over the past 40 years inorder to see the effects of the
recent economic recessionon roadtravel. Joe’s role was to collect andcompile relevant data on
historical traffic demandand econometric data across five Europeancountriesthat allexperienced
the recessiondifferently. Since this wasaninternal project, the scope wassubject to change andJoe
usedinitiative inselectinguseful data andadapting the approach.

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