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EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




           CAPE
ECONOMICS
                         th
May 27 2004
           Unit 2
        Paper 2

 EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




June 2004 – Unit 2 – Paper 2

1 a i) Percentage increase in Nominal Gross Domestic Product (1990 – 2002)

             5672.6 - 2708.0 100
         =                  ×    = 109.5%
                2708.0        1

1 a ii) Percentage increase in Real Gross Domestic Product (1990 – 2002)

             4848.8 - 3776.3 100
         =                  ×    = 28.4%
                3776.3        1

                                                                       1 b i)      1 b ii)
                          Real GDP    Real Potential
              Nominal      (1997       GDP (1997                     Growth in    Growth in
  Year         GDP         Price)        Price)        Output Gap   Nominal GDP   Real GDP
  1990         2708        3776.3        3912.9          -136.6
  1992        3149.6       3760.5        4090.9          -330.4       16.3%        -0.4%
  1994        3777.2       4148.3        4267.9          -119.6       19.9%        10.3%
  1996        4268.6       4404.5        4499.8           -95.3       13.0%         6.2%
  1998        4900.4       4718.6        4658.4            60.2       14.8%         7.1%
  2000        5513.8       4884.9         4966            -81.1       12.5%         3.5%
  2002        5672.6       4848.8        5092.7          -243.9       2.9%         -0.7%



                          1 c i)                       1 c ii)

    Year                Output Gap       Recessionary Gap/Inflationary Gap
    1990                  -136.6                Recessionary Gap
    1992                  -330.4                Recessionary Gap
    1994                  -119.6                Recessionary Gap
    1996                   -95.3                Recessionary Gap
    1998                   60.2                  Inflationary Gap
    2000                   -81.1                Recessionary Gap
    2002                  -243.9                Recessionary Gap

1 c iii) Inflationary Gap
An inflationary gap existed in the year 1998.

1 d) Given the decline in real GDP between 2000 and 2002, the economy is in the
recession stage of the business cycle.




              EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




                                   2 a i)
      Real Income               Consumption            Savings
            0                       800                 -800
         2500                      2800                 -300
         5000                      4800                 200
         7500                      6800                 700
        10000                      8800                 1200

2 a ii) Marginal Propensity to consume (MPC)

MPC = ∆C/∆Y = 2000/2500 = 0.8

2 a iii) The Multiplier (K)

K = 1 /(1 − MPC ) = 1 /(1 − 08) = 1 / 0.2 = 5

2 a iv) Equilibrium Level of Income

AE = C + I + G + X - M

C = 800 + 0.8Y
I = 500
G = 200
X=0
M=0

∴ AE = 800 + 0.8Y + 500+ 200
AE = 1500 + 0.8Y

At Equilibrium: Y = AE

∴ Y = 1500 + 0.8Y

Y - 0.8Y = 1500
0.2Y = 1500
Y = 1500/0.2 = 7500

The equilibrium level of national income is $7,500 million.

2 a v) Closed economy. This is because exports and imports are zero meaning that the
country does not take part in international trade.


2 b i) Inverse relationship between aggregate demand (AD) and the average price level.
As the average price level increase or decreases, there is a movement along the
downward sloping AD curve. Changes in the price level typically affect aggregate

              EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


demand indirectly via its influence over intermediary variables. There are basically three
main intermediary variables and their effects on each of the components of aggregate
demand are now outlined.
1. Interest rate: If the price level rises, then the demand for money increases and as a
   consequence the rate of interest rises. As a result consumers are faced with higher
   expenses. In particular higher interest rates would make consumers’ loan more costly
   and it would therefore make it more expensive for consumers to buy ‘big ticket’ items
   such as consumer durables e.g., new cars, which are typically bought by consumer
   loans or through hire purchase. Similarly, increased interest rates would make it more
   expensive for firms to borrow funds and thus private investments are likely to
   decrease as well.
2. Relative prices between domestic and foreign goods and services: As the domestic
   price level rises, home produced goods become more expensive relative to goods
   produced in foreign countries. This has the effect of lowering export competitiveness
   which leads to a fall in exports. Furthermore, higher prices in the domestic economy,
   with foreign prices unchanged, would encourage consumers to purchase more
   imported goods and services. Conclusively, higher prices would cause exports to fall
   and imports to rise thus casing the level of aggregate demand to decrease.
3. Changes in real wealth: As the average price level increases, the real value of a
   person’s wealth may fall. As a result, people may feel less well off, and this may
   prompt them to consume fewer goods and services which reduce aggregate demand.

2 b ii) Three Other factors which affect aggregate demand
1. Taxation
2. Government spending
3. Business confidence or expectations

2 b iii) Three Other factors which affect aggregate demand
1. Taxation – A decrease in the rate of taxation, whether direct or indirect will have the
    effect of increasing AD whatever the price level, as consumers would have more
    disposable income to spend. Reduced corporation taxes or businesses taxes may make
    previously unfeasible investments profitable and thus result in higher investment.
2. Government spending – An increase in Government expenditure, one of the
    components of aggregate expenditure in the economy at unchanged prices would
    certainly increase aggregate demand causing it to shift to the right.
3. Business confidence or expectations – A major determinant of investments is
    expectations on the part of entrepreneurs. Expectations about the future can have a
    significant bearing on the overall level of business confidence. Regardless of the price
    level or rate of interest, firms will invest if they are optimistic about the future and
    will not invest if they have a pessimistic outlook. Thus, if firms are very confident
    about the future, then investments would rise and the aggregate demand would shift
    to the right.




             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




2 b iv) Difference between Keynesian and Classical Aggregate Supply Curve
The classical aggregate supply (AS) curve makes a distinction between the short run and
the long run while the Keynesian does not.

Short Run Classical Aggregate Supply Curve
According to the Classical AS curve in the short run, firms suffer from diminishing
returns from their fixed factor, which contributes towards rising costs of production.
These higher costs of production would induce firms to increase prices as output expands
in order to pass on cost increases to consumers. This means the short run aggregate
supply curve (SRAS) would be upward sloping in the short run.

Classical Short Run Aggregate Supply
Price Level
    (P)                           SRA
                                  S
       P2




       P1




                Y1         Y2       Y = Real Output



Long Run Classical AS Curve
According to Classical economic theory, in the long run the economy would be at a point
on its production possibility frontier producing at its potential or full employment output
level with its given resources. Classical economists therefore contend that the long run
aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is vertical at the full employment level of output (YF). In
these circumstances there is absolutely no spare capacity in the economy and any
increase in aggregate demand leads to increased prices with no increase in output.

Classical Long Run Aggregate Supply
P              LRAS




                      B
P2


                      A
P1




                 YF
                                Y=Real Output




              EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




Keynesian Aggregate Supply
Along the Keynesian aggregate supply curve there is a horizontal portion which signifies
that there is excess capacity in the economy and idle resources exist. Over this section of
the aggregate supply curve shown in red, output can be expanded without the average
level of prices increasing.

In the blue section, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping which implies that the
economy as a whole is approaching maximum capacity. In this situation there would be
increased pressure on the labour market, as nearly everyone has a job, and wages will
begin to rise as firms have to offer more to attract workers. This in turn will cause cost of
production to increase which leads to an increase in the prices of final output.

The aggregate supply curve then becomes vertical as shown in green which depicts the
attainment of full capacity by all firms. This is where output has reached its maximum
and cannot be increased any further. This evidently occurs when the full employment
level of income (YF) exists in the economy.
Keynesian Aggregate Supply




              P                                  AS




               P4                                 E


               P3                                 D
                                             C
               P2
                                 A      B
               P1




                                Y1     Y2    Y3 YF
                                                           Y


3 a i) Money can be defined as anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods
and services and in repayment of debts.

3 a ii) Two Types of Money
     Commodity money. This is any money which has intrinsic value. That is the
         money is made from a commodity itself which has value. Examples of


             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


      commodities that have been used as mediums of exchange include gold, silver,
      copper, salt, peppercorns, large stones, decorated belts, shells, cigarettes etc.
     Representative money. Instead of money being made from a commodity, a token
      such as a paper note can be used as a symbol of the commodity. Such money is
      referred to as representative money is. Representative money is therefore backed
      by an underlying commodity which is where it derives its value. The name of the
      commodity which the token represents is usually stated on it. Representative
      money replaced commodity money as the later presented challenges mainly in
      terms of portability.

3 a iii) Motives for demanding Money
1. Transactionary motive – this refers to amount of money held for daily use to carry out
    routine transactions.
2. Precautionary motive – this accounts for money held for unforeseen expenditures or
    unforeseen contingencies.
3. Speculative motive – this is any money held in excess of the transactionary and
    precautionary motive and accounts for any money held in the hope of either making a
    speculative gain, or avoiding a possible loss as a result of a change in the interest rate
    and hence the price of financial assets.

3 a iv) Transactionary motive – As an individual receives his monthly income, say at the
end of January, he would spend some immediately and hold a portion of it throughout the
month of February in order to carry out daily expenditure over that period. In economic
jargon, the timing of the receipt of income and daily expenditure are not perfectly
synchronized. As a result individuals must hold a proportion of their income throughout
the month in order to fulfil daily transactions. In general, money held for the
transactionary motive tends to increase with income. It is however, not affected by
changes in the interest rate which means that the transactionary demand for money is
perfectly interest inelastic. These characteristics are shown in panel A and B of the figure.

      Panel A: Positively related to             Pane B: Not affected by the
                Income                                 Interest Rate
M                                           IR
                                       TB                    TB




                                       Y
                                                                               M


Speculative motive – this is any money held in excess of the transactionary and
precautionary motive. For example, if the total amount of money held by an individual is
$1,100 and his transactionary and precautionary balances are $500 and $200 respectively,

               EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


then his speculative balance is $400. The speculative motive for holding money, is
distinct from the other two, in that it accounts for any money held in the hope of either
making a speculative gain, or avoiding a possible loss as a result of an expected change in
the interest rate and hence the price of financial assets. There is an inverse relationship
between the demand for money for speculative purposes and the rate of interest as shown
in the figure.

 IR
 (%
   1
   0



   5
                                     SB



                                          M
                400         600



3 b i a) Commercial banks, accepts deposits from savers and uses these funds to make
loans to borrowers. In the banking system though as money is lent to a borrower it is
subsequently used to purchase a good or a service. As it changes hands from the
borrower/buyer to the seller, it might subsequently be deposited back into the bank by
this person. In other words the initial deposit of money is lent out, spend and is
subsequently re-deposited by another party. This means the initial deposit of money has
created a secondary or derivative deposit of money. Each time money is lent and re-
deposited in the form of a derivative deposit a smaller and smaller amount is available for
lending.

Given an initial deposit of $100 and cash reserve ratio of 10 percent the credit creation
process can be shown by the following table. The commercial bank would lend out $90 to
a borrower then subsequently the $90 would be returned to the bank by another party in
the form of a derivative. As this is collected, 10 percent is kept as reserves at the
commercial bank and the remaining $81 is lent out. Eventually $81 would be re-
deposited into the bank and $72.90 is lent out. This process continues until the
commercial bank has no more funds available for lending.

Deposit/Money Creation by Commercial Banks
                              Depositor       Deposits          Loans          Reserves
         Initial Deposit         1st             $100.00           $90.00           $10.00
       Derivative Deposit        2nd              $90.00           $81.00            $9.00
       Derivative Deposit        3rd              $81.00           $72.90            $8.10
       Derivative Deposit        4th              $72.90           $65.61            $7.29
       Derivative Deposit                               .                .                .

               EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


     Derivative Deposit                                    .                .                 .
     Derivative Deposit            ∞                       .                .                 .
      Total Deposits                              $1,000.00          $900.00           $100.00



3 b i b) The total deposits would comprise of the sum of the initial deposit and all
derivative deposits. From the table this would be $100 + $90 + $81 + $72.90 + … The
table shows that this adds up to $1,000. To determine this amount the money multiplier is
used.

The money multiplier refers to ratio of the total deposits at a commercial bank to the
initial deposit and is calculated by the following formula.

Money Multiplier      =       1 / (Cash Reserve Ratio)
                      =       1/10%
                      =       10
This means that if the initial deposit is $100 then total deposits created by the credit
creation process would be 10 times or $1,000.

3 b ii) Inverse relationship between the rate of interest and the demand for money.
Both the transactionary and precautionary demand for money are perfectly interest
inelastic. The inverse relationship between the rate of interest and the demand for money
arises entirely from the speculative motive. If, for some reason, the actual rate of interest
in the economy was say 5 percent but speculators anticipated that is would rise to 8
percent then individuals would prefer to hold their wealth in the form of money since as
the interest rate rises, the price of financial assets fall. This is because if wealth was held
in the form of financial assets are then a capital loss would be incurred

On the converse side, if the actual rate of interest in the economy was say 10 percent,
speculators contended that it would fall to 8 percent then individuals would hold less of
their wealth in the form of money and thus more in the form of financial assets. This is
because if the rate of interest falls, the price of financial assets would rise and the holders
of such assets would earn a capital gain.

In short, the analysis simply suggests that if the interest rate is low and expected to rise
then individuals would hold more money in speculative balances. On the other hand if the
interest rate is high and expected to fall then the speculative demand for money would be
low. This is shown in the figure which demonstrates an inverse relationship between the
rate of interest and the speculative demand for money.




             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




The Speculation Demand for Money

  IR

   10




    5
                                               SB



                                                         M
                 $4B               $10B


3 b iii) An increase in the supply of money.
As the money supply increases a surplus of money is created in the money market. In
order for the money market to clear, the rate of interest must fall to entice individuals to
hold larger money balances. As the figure shows an increase in the money supply results
in the establishment of a new equilibrium in the money market at a lower rate of interest.
This represents expansionary monetary policy as the lower interest rate would lead to an
increase in the level of output and employment in an economy.

   IR
                           SM1        SM2




                              E1
  IR1

                                          E2
  IR2

                                                LP= DM


                                                         M

4 a i) National Debt and the Budget Deficit
The National Debt also known as the public sector debt is the accumulated debt built up
by the Government over a number of years that has not yet been repaid. It represents the
total amount owed by the Government to its citizens, which is domestic debt as well as
the amount owed to foreigners which is external debt.


             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




The budget deficit refers to the difference between government spending and taxation
revenue. This short fall can be met by printing money or by borrowing. If the government
chooses to borrow, then the national debt increases.

4 a ii) Three Fiscal Measures to increase employment
       1. Increased government spending on projects which create direct employment
       2. Increased government spending on education
       3. Decreases taxation.

4 a iii) Three Fiscal Measures to increase employment
       1. Increased government spending on projects which create direct employment.
           The government can increase its expenditure on projects such as infrastructure
           which directly creates employment opportunities. Such expenditure would also
           result in an increase in the productive capacity of the economy. Furthermore
           given the multiplier effects, aggregate expenditure throughout the economy
           would expand as income rises. Such increases in the demand for goods and
           services would also encourage entrepreneurs to produce greater output and more
           labour is employed. This means the increase in government spending also
           creates indirect employment. This type of measure would be suitable in
           reducing cyclical unemployment.
       2. Increased government spending on education. As the government spends more
           on education whether in terms of facilities or financial aid, the level of human
           capital in the economy would rise. This means the productivity of labour would
           be boosted and those who were previous unemployed would be able to obtain
           jobs. New industries would develop and a greater proportion of the labour force
           would be absorbed by employment opportunities. This type of fiscal measure
           would be applicable to solving structural and technological unemployment.
       3. Decreases taxation. Sometimes if direct taxation is too high it may be a major
           discouragement to economic activity. A reduction in taxation would enable
           workers to take home more disposable income and companies to earn greater
           after tax profits. Both of these factors would increase the incentives to
           productive activities and encourage more individuals to seek employment as
           well as firms to hire more workers. This can be a very effective measure to
           reduce cyclical unemployment as well as voluntary unemployment.


4 b i) Effect of an increase in lump sup taxes
All other variables held constant an increase in taxation which is withdrawal from the
circular flow of income would result in a fall in aggregate expenditure. As a result
national income would fall via the multiplier principle resulting in a fall in the
equilibrium level of output.

4 b ii) Effect of an Increase in Government Spending
All other variables held constant an increase in government spending which is an
injection into the circular flow if income would result in an increase in aggregate


             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


expenditure. As such, the production would expand and national income would rise via
the multiplier principle. The end result is an increase in the equilibrium level of output.

4 b iii) Effect of an Increase in Government Spending and Lump sum taxes.
An increase in government spending and taxation of equal magnitude all other variables
held constant would affect the level of national income via the balanced budget
multiplier. This principle asserts that the equilibrium level of output would increase in
equal magnitude to the increase in government spending.

4 c) Burden of Public Debt on Future Generations
1. Recurrent vs Capital Expenditure - The money borrowed may be used for recurrent
    expenditure by the government which benefits only the current populations and the
    not the future generation. If however the borrowed funds is used for capital
    expenditure in the form of improvements to infrastructure which last several decades
    then this can benefit future generations.
2. Interest Payments - interest payments and the repayment of principal on debt reduces
    the amount of money which the government has to devote towards other uses such as
    spending on educational facilities for instance. This may also result in an increase in
    taxes which may not be favoured by tax payers.
3. Foreign exchange drain - The repayment of interest and principal on external has to
    be made using foreign currency. This causes a significant drain of foreign exchange
    which negatively affects the balance of payments.


5 a i) Two Difference between Economic Growth and Development
The term "economic growth" refers to the increases in the level of national income
usually expressed in constant prices. The term "economic development," refers to a
sustainable improvement in the standard of living of a country. As such in addition to
national income economic development takes other factors into consideration. Two of
these factors are literacy rates and life expectancy.

5 a ii) Three factors which Allow Economic Growth
       1. Increases in Capital Resources- investments in infrastructure such as a rapid rail
          transportation network in Trinidad and Tobago.
       2. Increases in Natural Resources – the discovery of new unscathed hydrocarbon
          fields on the offshore territories in the Trinidad and Tobago.
       3. Increases of Labour Resources – an increase in the productivity of the labour
          force through expenditure on human capital formation. In Trinidad and Tobago
          for instance spending on tertiary level education by the government has seen a
          significant increase.

5 a iii) Two Benefits of Economic Growth
       1. An Increase in Income – economic growth is defined as an increase in the level
          of real national income. This is beneficial as individuals are able to consume
          more goods and services which increases their standard of living.


             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


     2. Poverty reduction – economic growth also enable an increase proportion of the
        labour force to be employed which also assists in reducing poverty within the
        society.

5 a iii) Two Cost of Economic Growth
       1. Increased inequality – as national income increases only the high income
          earners may benefit while the low income earners may enjoy an improvement in
          the standard of living. This means that the distribution of income might worsen
          as inequality widens.
       2. Negative externalities –economic growth means more output is being
          production but this may be achieved at the expense of increased noise,
          congestion, pollution and other negative externalities which undermine
          economic welfare.


5 b i) Unequal distribution of World Income
Column 6 and 7.

5 b ii) Columns 1, columns 6 and columns 7.
Column 1 shows that there are 4 categories of countries based on GDP per capita.
Column 6 shows that the bulk of the world population resides in low income countries.
Column 7 indicates that high income countries earn 79.9 percent of world GDP.

5 b iii) Income grouping of Most CARICOM Countries
Most Caribbean countries would fall in the upper middle income category since although
many challenges are faced in the region living standards and GDP per capita is much
higher compared to the poorer countries across the world but still les than that in the
developed economies.


5 b iv) Two Consequences of low income
    1. Low consumption – A low level of income means that households would not be
        able to afford a lot of goods and services which they desire. If income is so low
        that basic goods such as food, clothing and shelter cannot be afforded then a life
        of poverty would be experienced.
    2. Low savings – low income also means that households would have limited funds
        available for savings. With low savings, there will not be enough funds available
        for investments. Consequently, there will be less economic growth and the
        country remains poor. The cycle of poverty therefore continues.

5 b v) Three Constraints to development
      1. Lack of natural resources – in some developing countries natural resources may
         be scare as a lot of land may be desert and non arable. Furthermore, other
         natural resources such as minerals and fisheries may be non existent or
         extremely limited and this places a major constraint on economic development
         as basic inputs for the production process would be lacking.


             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


     2. Lack of human capital – in addition to natural resources, developing countries
        may face constraints in terms of the skills possess by the workforce. Spending
        on human capital formation may be minimal and the productivity of labour
        would be low as a consequence. This effectively prevents such countries from
        reaching efficiency levels sufficient for international competition in export
        market.
     3. Lack of physical capital or infrastructure – investments in infrastructure may
        also be inhibited due to lack of savings to finance such expenditure. As a result
        the productive capacity of such economies remains backward and the
        achievement of economic development is impeded.


6 a i) Definition of the Exchange Rate
An exchange rate is simply the price at which one currency can be traded for another.
This is sometimes referred to as the external value of a country’s currency.

In 1996, the nominal exchange rate between the Trinidad and Tobago dollar and the
United States dollar was:

TT$6.00        =      US$1.00        or      TT$1.00        =       US$0.17

6 a ii) Two Types of Exchange Rate Systems
1. Fixed Exchange Rate
2. Floating Exchange Rate

6 a iii) The Fixed Exchange Rate
The fixed exchange rate or pegged exchange rate is one means by which an exchange rate
can be determined. Under the fixed exchange rate system, the exchange rate is set by the
Government and maintained by Government intervention in the foreign exchange
markets. In Barbados for instance, a fixed exchange rate is adopted with the United States
dollar where Bds$2 = US$1.

If the official rate coincides with the equilibrium rate in the foreign exchange market,
then there is no need for Government intervention. This is shown in the figure which
presents a hypothetical illustration of the official exchange rate set by the Government of
Barbados coinciding with the rate at which the demand for foreign exchange in Barbados
is equal to its supply.




             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




The Fixed Exchange Rate

   Bds$/US$
                 D                            S




Bds$2 = US$1                                      Official
                                                   Rate




                 S                                 D

                                                       QUS$
If, however, the official rate differs from the equilibrium rate, then Government
intervention is necessary through the manipulation of the foreign exchange reserves of
foreign currency or even foreign exchange control measures.

If at the official rate is higher then the equilibrium, then the demand for foreign exchange
would be lower then the supply of foreign exchange. Given market forces, such a surplus
would result in a decrease in the exchange rate. This however does not occur, as the rate
is fixed. Instead, the Government intervenes in the market and gets rid of the surplus by
purchasing the excess foreign exchange from the market.

In the reverse instance, where the official rate is below the market equilibrium, a shortage
is created in the foreign exchange market. Normally this would lead to upward pressure
on the exchange rate. However, since the rate is fixed, the Barbados authorities would
have to intervene in the foreign exchange market by increasing the supply of foreign
exchange. This is done by the release of foreign exchange reserves held at the Central
Bank of Barbados to the foreign exchange market.

There is however a limit on the amount of official foreign exchange reserves which a
country possesses and thus the use of reserves to defend the currency in this way cannot
be sustained indefinitely. Another solution to the shortage of foreign exchange under a
fixed rate system is the use of exchange controls. Exchange control refers to restrictions
placed upon the ability of domestic households to purchase foreign currencies which
effectively decreases the demand for foreign exchange.

6 a iii) The Floating Exchange Rate
Under the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate between the domestic
currency and the foreign currency is determined by the demand and supply in the foreign
exchange market. The demand for foreign currency arises whenever there is need to
exchange domestic currency in return for foreign currency. The supply of foreign
currency arises from all inflows of foreign exchange in the balance of payments.

               EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS




Floating Exchange Rate in Jamaica

    Jam$/US$
                         D                                S


                                          E
Jam$40 = US$1




                         S
                                                          D

                                          QE                  QUS$

The figure shows the demand and supply for US dollars in Jamaica which has a floating
exchange rate. This shows that equilibrium in the foreign exchange market occurs at
point E, where the overall demand for US dollars is equal to the supply of US dollars. In
2000, the exchange rate in Jamaica was J$40 = US$1 which implied that the external
value of a Jamaican dollar was about US$0.025 which is about 2.5 US cents.


6 b i) An increase in price of US videos with elastic demand
As the price of US videos increases, the demand for such by the British would fall. Since
the demand is elastic there would be a decrease in the value imported videos from USA
to Britain. As a result there would be a decrease in the demand for US dollars. This is
shown in the figure.

           £/US$
                         D1



                                               S
                    D2               E1
   £1.00 = US$1

   £0.80 = US$1                E2
                    S

                                         D2        D1

                              Q2    Q1             QUS$




             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £0.80 = US$1. This means
the value of the British pound has increased relative to the US dollar.

6 b ii) An increase in price of US videos with inelastic demand
As the price of US videos increases, the demand for such by the British would fall. Since
the demand is inelastic there would be an increase in the value imported videos from
USA to Britain. As a result there would be an increase in the demand for US dollars. This
is shown in the figure.
          £/US$                      D2

                                                               S
                           D1

   £1.50 = US$1                                      E2

   £1.00 = US$1
                                           E1
                       S
                                                               D2

                                                      D1

                                     Q1         Q2             QUS$

As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £1.50 = US$1. That is the
value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar.

6 b iii) Inflation in Britain.
If there is inflation in Britain, then there would be an increase in imports from USA to
Britain which increases the demand for US dollars. In addition there would also be a
decrease in exports from Britain to USA which decreases the supply of US dollars. These
two effects are shown in the figure.

      £/US$                                               S2
                                D2                             S1

                  D1                      E2
  £3.00 = US$1

                                     E1
  £1.00 = US$1

                  S1
                            S2                   D1            D2

                                     Q2 Q1                            QUS$




              EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS


As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £3..00 = US$1. This implies
that the value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar.


6 b iv) Increase financial investments from Britain to USA
An increase in investments from Britain to USA increases the demand for US dollars.
This is shown in the figure.
         £/US$                D2

                                                   S
                         D1

   £1.50 = US$1                              E2

   £1.00 = US$1
                                   E1
                     S
                                                   D2

                                              D1

                              Q1        Q2         QUS$

As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £1..50 = US$1. As such the
value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar.




             EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS

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CAPE Economics, June 2004, Unit 2, Paper 2 suggested answer by Edward Bahaw

  • 1. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS CAPE ECONOMICS th May 27 2004 Unit 2 Paper 2 EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 2. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS June 2004 – Unit 2 – Paper 2 1 a i) Percentage increase in Nominal Gross Domestic Product (1990 – 2002) 5672.6 - 2708.0 100 = × = 109.5% 2708.0 1 1 a ii) Percentage increase in Real Gross Domestic Product (1990 – 2002) 4848.8 - 3776.3 100 = × = 28.4% 3776.3 1 1 b i) 1 b ii) Real GDP Real Potential Nominal (1997 GDP (1997 Growth in Growth in Year GDP Price) Price) Output Gap Nominal GDP Real GDP 1990 2708 3776.3 3912.9 -136.6 1992 3149.6 3760.5 4090.9 -330.4 16.3% -0.4% 1994 3777.2 4148.3 4267.9 -119.6 19.9% 10.3% 1996 4268.6 4404.5 4499.8 -95.3 13.0% 6.2% 1998 4900.4 4718.6 4658.4 60.2 14.8% 7.1% 2000 5513.8 4884.9 4966 -81.1 12.5% 3.5% 2002 5672.6 4848.8 5092.7 -243.9 2.9% -0.7% 1 c i) 1 c ii) Year Output Gap Recessionary Gap/Inflationary Gap 1990 -136.6 Recessionary Gap 1992 -330.4 Recessionary Gap 1994 -119.6 Recessionary Gap 1996 -95.3 Recessionary Gap 1998 60.2 Inflationary Gap 2000 -81.1 Recessionary Gap 2002 -243.9 Recessionary Gap 1 c iii) Inflationary Gap An inflationary gap existed in the year 1998. 1 d) Given the decline in real GDP between 2000 and 2002, the economy is in the recession stage of the business cycle. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 3. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS 2 a i) Real Income Consumption Savings 0 800 -800 2500 2800 -300 5000 4800 200 7500 6800 700 10000 8800 1200 2 a ii) Marginal Propensity to consume (MPC) MPC = ∆C/∆Y = 2000/2500 = 0.8 2 a iii) The Multiplier (K) K = 1 /(1 − MPC ) = 1 /(1 − 08) = 1 / 0.2 = 5 2 a iv) Equilibrium Level of Income AE = C + I + G + X - M C = 800 + 0.8Y I = 500 G = 200 X=0 M=0 ∴ AE = 800 + 0.8Y + 500+ 200 AE = 1500 + 0.8Y At Equilibrium: Y = AE ∴ Y = 1500 + 0.8Y Y - 0.8Y = 1500 0.2Y = 1500 Y = 1500/0.2 = 7500 The equilibrium level of national income is $7,500 million. 2 a v) Closed economy. This is because exports and imports are zero meaning that the country does not take part in international trade. 2 b i) Inverse relationship between aggregate demand (AD) and the average price level. As the average price level increase or decreases, there is a movement along the downward sloping AD curve. Changes in the price level typically affect aggregate EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 4. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS demand indirectly via its influence over intermediary variables. There are basically three main intermediary variables and their effects on each of the components of aggregate demand are now outlined. 1. Interest rate: If the price level rises, then the demand for money increases and as a consequence the rate of interest rises. As a result consumers are faced with higher expenses. In particular higher interest rates would make consumers’ loan more costly and it would therefore make it more expensive for consumers to buy ‘big ticket’ items such as consumer durables e.g., new cars, which are typically bought by consumer loans or through hire purchase. Similarly, increased interest rates would make it more expensive for firms to borrow funds and thus private investments are likely to decrease as well. 2. Relative prices between domestic and foreign goods and services: As the domestic price level rises, home produced goods become more expensive relative to goods produced in foreign countries. This has the effect of lowering export competitiveness which leads to a fall in exports. Furthermore, higher prices in the domestic economy, with foreign prices unchanged, would encourage consumers to purchase more imported goods and services. Conclusively, higher prices would cause exports to fall and imports to rise thus casing the level of aggregate demand to decrease. 3. Changes in real wealth: As the average price level increases, the real value of a person’s wealth may fall. As a result, people may feel less well off, and this may prompt them to consume fewer goods and services which reduce aggregate demand. 2 b ii) Three Other factors which affect aggregate demand 1. Taxation 2. Government spending 3. Business confidence or expectations 2 b iii) Three Other factors which affect aggregate demand 1. Taxation – A decrease in the rate of taxation, whether direct or indirect will have the effect of increasing AD whatever the price level, as consumers would have more disposable income to spend. Reduced corporation taxes or businesses taxes may make previously unfeasible investments profitable and thus result in higher investment. 2. Government spending – An increase in Government expenditure, one of the components of aggregate expenditure in the economy at unchanged prices would certainly increase aggregate demand causing it to shift to the right. 3. Business confidence or expectations – A major determinant of investments is expectations on the part of entrepreneurs. Expectations about the future can have a significant bearing on the overall level of business confidence. Regardless of the price level or rate of interest, firms will invest if they are optimistic about the future and will not invest if they have a pessimistic outlook. Thus, if firms are very confident about the future, then investments would rise and the aggregate demand would shift to the right. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 5. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS 2 b iv) Difference between Keynesian and Classical Aggregate Supply Curve The classical aggregate supply (AS) curve makes a distinction between the short run and the long run while the Keynesian does not. Short Run Classical Aggregate Supply Curve According to the Classical AS curve in the short run, firms suffer from diminishing returns from their fixed factor, which contributes towards rising costs of production. These higher costs of production would induce firms to increase prices as output expands in order to pass on cost increases to consumers. This means the short run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) would be upward sloping in the short run. Classical Short Run Aggregate Supply Price Level (P) SRA S P2 P1 Y1 Y2 Y = Real Output Long Run Classical AS Curve According to Classical economic theory, in the long run the economy would be at a point on its production possibility frontier producing at its potential or full employment output level with its given resources. Classical economists therefore contend that the long run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is vertical at the full employment level of output (YF). In these circumstances there is absolutely no spare capacity in the economy and any increase in aggregate demand leads to increased prices with no increase in output. Classical Long Run Aggregate Supply P LRAS B P2 A P1 YF Y=Real Output EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 6. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS Keynesian Aggregate Supply Along the Keynesian aggregate supply curve there is a horizontal portion which signifies that there is excess capacity in the economy and idle resources exist. Over this section of the aggregate supply curve shown in red, output can be expanded without the average level of prices increasing. In the blue section, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping which implies that the economy as a whole is approaching maximum capacity. In this situation there would be increased pressure on the labour market, as nearly everyone has a job, and wages will begin to rise as firms have to offer more to attract workers. This in turn will cause cost of production to increase which leads to an increase in the prices of final output. The aggregate supply curve then becomes vertical as shown in green which depicts the attainment of full capacity by all firms. This is where output has reached its maximum and cannot be increased any further. This evidently occurs when the full employment level of income (YF) exists in the economy. Keynesian Aggregate Supply P AS P4 E P3 D C P2 A B P1 Y1 Y2 Y3 YF Y 3 a i) Money can be defined as anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods and services and in repayment of debts. 3 a ii) Two Types of Money  Commodity money. This is any money which has intrinsic value. That is the money is made from a commodity itself which has value. Examples of EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 7. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS commodities that have been used as mediums of exchange include gold, silver, copper, salt, peppercorns, large stones, decorated belts, shells, cigarettes etc.  Representative money. Instead of money being made from a commodity, a token such as a paper note can be used as a symbol of the commodity. Such money is referred to as representative money is. Representative money is therefore backed by an underlying commodity which is where it derives its value. The name of the commodity which the token represents is usually stated on it. Representative money replaced commodity money as the later presented challenges mainly in terms of portability. 3 a iii) Motives for demanding Money 1. Transactionary motive – this refers to amount of money held for daily use to carry out routine transactions. 2. Precautionary motive – this accounts for money held for unforeseen expenditures or unforeseen contingencies. 3. Speculative motive – this is any money held in excess of the transactionary and precautionary motive and accounts for any money held in the hope of either making a speculative gain, or avoiding a possible loss as a result of a change in the interest rate and hence the price of financial assets. 3 a iv) Transactionary motive – As an individual receives his monthly income, say at the end of January, he would spend some immediately and hold a portion of it throughout the month of February in order to carry out daily expenditure over that period. In economic jargon, the timing of the receipt of income and daily expenditure are not perfectly synchronized. As a result individuals must hold a proportion of their income throughout the month in order to fulfil daily transactions. In general, money held for the transactionary motive tends to increase with income. It is however, not affected by changes in the interest rate which means that the transactionary demand for money is perfectly interest inelastic. These characteristics are shown in panel A and B of the figure. Panel A: Positively related to Pane B: Not affected by the Income Interest Rate M IR TB TB Y M Speculative motive – this is any money held in excess of the transactionary and precautionary motive. For example, if the total amount of money held by an individual is $1,100 and his transactionary and precautionary balances are $500 and $200 respectively, EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 8. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS then his speculative balance is $400. The speculative motive for holding money, is distinct from the other two, in that it accounts for any money held in the hope of either making a speculative gain, or avoiding a possible loss as a result of an expected change in the interest rate and hence the price of financial assets. There is an inverse relationship between the demand for money for speculative purposes and the rate of interest as shown in the figure. IR (% 1 0 5 SB M 400 600 3 b i a) Commercial banks, accepts deposits from savers and uses these funds to make loans to borrowers. In the banking system though as money is lent to a borrower it is subsequently used to purchase a good or a service. As it changes hands from the borrower/buyer to the seller, it might subsequently be deposited back into the bank by this person. In other words the initial deposit of money is lent out, spend and is subsequently re-deposited by another party. This means the initial deposit of money has created a secondary or derivative deposit of money. Each time money is lent and re- deposited in the form of a derivative deposit a smaller and smaller amount is available for lending. Given an initial deposit of $100 and cash reserve ratio of 10 percent the credit creation process can be shown by the following table. The commercial bank would lend out $90 to a borrower then subsequently the $90 would be returned to the bank by another party in the form of a derivative. As this is collected, 10 percent is kept as reserves at the commercial bank and the remaining $81 is lent out. Eventually $81 would be re- deposited into the bank and $72.90 is lent out. This process continues until the commercial bank has no more funds available for lending. Deposit/Money Creation by Commercial Banks Depositor Deposits Loans Reserves Initial Deposit 1st $100.00 $90.00 $10.00 Derivative Deposit 2nd $90.00 $81.00 $9.00 Derivative Deposit 3rd $81.00 $72.90 $8.10 Derivative Deposit 4th $72.90 $65.61 $7.29 Derivative Deposit . . . EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 9. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS Derivative Deposit . . . Derivative Deposit ∞ . . . Total Deposits $1,000.00 $900.00 $100.00 3 b i b) The total deposits would comprise of the sum of the initial deposit and all derivative deposits. From the table this would be $100 + $90 + $81 + $72.90 + … The table shows that this adds up to $1,000. To determine this amount the money multiplier is used. The money multiplier refers to ratio of the total deposits at a commercial bank to the initial deposit and is calculated by the following formula. Money Multiplier = 1 / (Cash Reserve Ratio) = 1/10% = 10 This means that if the initial deposit is $100 then total deposits created by the credit creation process would be 10 times or $1,000. 3 b ii) Inverse relationship between the rate of interest and the demand for money. Both the transactionary and precautionary demand for money are perfectly interest inelastic. The inverse relationship between the rate of interest and the demand for money arises entirely from the speculative motive. If, for some reason, the actual rate of interest in the economy was say 5 percent but speculators anticipated that is would rise to 8 percent then individuals would prefer to hold their wealth in the form of money since as the interest rate rises, the price of financial assets fall. This is because if wealth was held in the form of financial assets are then a capital loss would be incurred On the converse side, if the actual rate of interest in the economy was say 10 percent, speculators contended that it would fall to 8 percent then individuals would hold less of their wealth in the form of money and thus more in the form of financial assets. This is because if the rate of interest falls, the price of financial assets would rise and the holders of such assets would earn a capital gain. In short, the analysis simply suggests that if the interest rate is low and expected to rise then individuals would hold more money in speculative balances. On the other hand if the interest rate is high and expected to fall then the speculative demand for money would be low. This is shown in the figure which demonstrates an inverse relationship between the rate of interest and the speculative demand for money. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 10. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS The Speculation Demand for Money IR 10 5 SB M $4B $10B 3 b iii) An increase in the supply of money. As the money supply increases a surplus of money is created in the money market. In order for the money market to clear, the rate of interest must fall to entice individuals to hold larger money balances. As the figure shows an increase in the money supply results in the establishment of a new equilibrium in the money market at a lower rate of interest. This represents expansionary monetary policy as the lower interest rate would lead to an increase in the level of output and employment in an economy. IR SM1 SM2 E1 IR1 E2 IR2 LP= DM M 4 a i) National Debt and the Budget Deficit The National Debt also known as the public sector debt is the accumulated debt built up by the Government over a number of years that has not yet been repaid. It represents the total amount owed by the Government to its citizens, which is domestic debt as well as the amount owed to foreigners which is external debt. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 11. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS The budget deficit refers to the difference between government spending and taxation revenue. This short fall can be met by printing money or by borrowing. If the government chooses to borrow, then the national debt increases. 4 a ii) Three Fiscal Measures to increase employment 1. Increased government spending on projects which create direct employment 2. Increased government spending on education 3. Decreases taxation. 4 a iii) Three Fiscal Measures to increase employment 1. Increased government spending on projects which create direct employment. The government can increase its expenditure on projects such as infrastructure which directly creates employment opportunities. Such expenditure would also result in an increase in the productive capacity of the economy. Furthermore given the multiplier effects, aggregate expenditure throughout the economy would expand as income rises. Such increases in the demand for goods and services would also encourage entrepreneurs to produce greater output and more labour is employed. This means the increase in government spending also creates indirect employment. This type of measure would be suitable in reducing cyclical unemployment. 2. Increased government spending on education. As the government spends more on education whether in terms of facilities or financial aid, the level of human capital in the economy would rise. This means the productivity of labour would be boosted and those who were previous unemployed would be able to obtain jobs. New industries would develop and a greater proportion of the labour force would be absorbed by employment opportunities. This type of fiscal measure would be applicable to solving structural and technological unemployment. 3. Decreases taxation. Sometimes if direct taxation is too high it may be a major discouragement to economic activity. A reduction in taxation would enable workers to take home more disposable income and companies to earn greater after tax profits. Both of these factors would increase the incentives to productive activities and encourage more individuals to seek employment as well as firms to hire more workers. This can be a very effective measure to reduce cyclical unemployment as well as voluntary unemployment. 4 b i) Effect of an increase in lump sup taxes All other variables held constant an increase in taxation which is withdrawal from the circular flow of income would result in a fall in aggregate expenditure. As a result national income would fall via the multiplier principle resulting in a fall in the equilibrium level of output. 4 b ii) Effect of an Increase in Government Spending All other variables held constant an increase in government spending which is an injection into the circular flow if income would result in an increase in aggregate EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 12. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS expenditure. As such, the production would expand and national income would rise via the multiplier principle. The end result is an increase in the equilibrium level of output. 4 b iii) Effect of an Increase in Government Spending and Lump sum taxes. An increase in government spending and taxation of equal magnitude all other variables held constant would affect the level of national income via the balanced budget multiplier. This principle asserts that the equilibrium level of output would increase in equal magnitude to the increase in government spending. 4 c) Burden of Public Debt on Future Generations 1. Recurrent vs Capital Expenditure - The money borrowed may be used for recurrent expenditure by the government which benefits only the current populations and the not the future generation. If however the borrowed funds is used for capital expenditure in the form of improvements to infrastructure which last several decades then this can benefit future generations. 2. Interest Payments - interest payments and the repayment of principal on debt reduces the amount of money which the government has to devote towards other uses such as spending on educational facilities for instance. This may also result in an increase in taxes which may not be favoured by tax payers. 3. Foreign exchange drain - The repayment of interest and principal on external has to be made using foreign currency. This causes a significant drain of foreign exchange which negatively affects the balance of payments. 5 a i) Two Difference between Economic Growth and Development The term "economic growth" refers to the increases in the level of national income usually expressed in constant prices. The term "economic development," refers to a sustainable improvement in the standard of living of a country. As such in addition to national income economic development takes other factors into consideration. Two of these factors are literacy rates and life expectancy. 5 a ii) Three factors which Allow Economic Growth 1. Increases in Capital Resources- investments in infrastructure such as a rapid rail transportation network in Trinidad and Tobago. 2. Increases in Natural Resources – the discovery of new unscathed hydrocarbon fields on the offshore territories in the Trinidad and Tobago. 3. Increases of Labour Resources – an increase in the productivity of the labour force through expenditure on human capital formation. In Trinidad and Tobago for instance spending on tertiary level education by the government has seen a significant increase. 5 a iii) Two Benefits of Economic Growth 1. An Increase in Income – economic growth is defined as an increase in the level of real national income. This is beneficial as individuals are able to consume more goods and services which increases their standard of living. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 13. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS 2. Poverty reduction – economic growth also enable an increase proportion of the labour force to be employed which also assists in reducing poverty within the society. 5 a iii) Two Cost of Economic Growth 1. Increased inequality – as national income increases only the high income earners may benefit while the low income earners may enjoy an improvement in the standard of living. This means that the distribution of income might worsen as inequality widens. 2. Negative externalities –economic growth means more output is being production but this may be achieved at the expense of increased noise, congestion, pollution and other negative externalities which undermine economic welfare. 5 b i) Unequal distribution of World Income Column 6 and 7. 5 b ii) Columns 1, columns 6 and columns 7. Column 1 shows that there are 4 categories of countries based on GDP per capita. Column 6 shows that the bulk of the world population resides in low income countries. Column 7 indicates that high income countries earn 79.9 percent of world GDP. 5 b iii) Income grouping of Most CARICOM Countries Most Caribbean countries would fall in the upper middle income category since although many challenges are faced in the region living standards and GDP per capita is much higher compared to the poorer countries across the world but still les than that in the developed economies. 5 b iv) Two Consequences of low income 1. Low consumption – A low level of income means that households would not be able to afford a lot of goods and services which they desire. If income is so low that basic goods such as food, clothing and shelter cannot be afforded then a life of poverty would be experienced. 2. Low savings – low income also means that households would have limited funds available for savings. With low savings, there will not be enough funds available for investments. Consequently, there will be less economic growth and the country remains poor. The cycle of poverty therefore continues. 5 b v) Three Constraints to development 1. Lack of natural resources – in some developing countries natural resources may be scare as a lot of land may be desert and non arable. Furthermore, other natural resources such as minerals and fisheries may be non existent or extremely limited and this places a major constraint on economic development as basic inputs for the production process would be lacking. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 14. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS 2. Lack of human capital – in addition to natural resources, developing countries may face constraints in terms of the skills possess by the workforce. Spending on human capital formation may be minimal and the productivity of labour would be low as a consequence. This effectively prevents such countries from reaching efficiency levels sufficient for international competition in export market. 3. Lack of physical capital or infrastructure – investments in infrastructure may also be inhibited due to lack of savings to finance such expenditure. As a result the productive capacity of such economies remains backward and the achievement of economic development is impeded. 6 a i) Definition of the Exchange Rate An exchange rate is simply the price at which one currency can be traded for another. This is sometimes referred to as the external value of a country’s currency. In 1996, the nominal exchange rate between the Trinidad and Tobago dollar and the United States dollar was: TT$6.00 = US$1.00 or TT$1.00 = US$0.17 6 a ii) Two Types of Exchange Rate Systems 1. Fixed Exchange Rate 2. Floating Exchange Rate 6 a iii) The Fixed Exchange Rate The fixed exchange rate or pegged exchange rate is one means by which an exchange rate can be determined. Under the fixed exchange rate system, the exchange rate is set by the Government and maintained by Government intervention in the foreign exchange markets. In Barbados for instance, a fixed exchange rate is adopted with the United States dollar where Bds$2 = US$1. If the official rate coincides with the equilibrium rate in the foreign exchange market, then there is no need for Government intervention. This is shown in the figure which presents a hypothetical illustration of the official exchange rate set by the Government of Barbados coinciding with the rate at which the demand for foreign exchange in Barbados is equal to its supply. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 15. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS The Fixed Exchange Rate Bds$/US$ D S Bds$2 = US$1 Official Rate S D QUS$ If, however, the official rate differs from the equilibrium rate, then Government intervention is necessary through the manipulation of the foreign exchange reserves of foreign currency or even foreign exchange control measures. If at the official rate is higher then the equilibrium, then the demand for foreign exchange would be lower then the supply of foreign exchange. Given market forces, such a surplus would result in a decrease in the exchange rate. This however does not occur, as the rate is fixed. Instead, the Government intervenes in the market and gets rid of the surplus by purchasing the excess foreign exchange from the market. In the reverse instance, where the official rate is below the market equilibrium, a shortage is created in the foreign exchange market. Normally this would lead to upward pressure on the exchange rate. However, since the rate is fixed, the Barbados authorities would have to intervene in the foreign exchange market by increasing the supply of foreign exchange. This is done by the release of foreign exchange reserves held at the Central Bank of Barbados to the foreign exchange market. There is however a limit on the amount of official foreign exchange reserves which a country possesses and thus the use of reserves to defend the currency in this way cannot be sustained indefinitely. Another solution to the shortage of foreign exchange under a fixed rate system is the use of exchange controls. Exchange control refers to restrictions placed upon the ability of domestic households to purchase foreign currencies which effectively decreases the demand for foreign exchange. 6 a iii) The Floating Exchange Rate Under the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate between the domestic currency and the foreign currency is determined by the demand and supply in the foreign exchange market. The demand for foreign currency arises whenever there is need to exchange domestic currency in return for foreign currency. The supply of foreign currency arises from all inflows of foreign exchange in the balance of payments. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 16. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS Floating Exchange Rate in Jamaica Jam$/US$ D S E Jam$40 = US$1 S D QE QUS$ The figure shows the demand and supply for US dollars in Jamaica which has a floating exchange rate. This shows that equilibrium in the foreign exchange market occurs at point E, where the overall demand for US dollars is equal to the supply of US dollars. In 2000, the exchange rate in Jamaica was J$40 = US$1 which implied that the external value of a Jamaican dollar was about US$0.025 which is about 2.5 US cents. 6 b i) An increase in price of US videos with elastic demand As the price of US videos increases, the demand for such by the British would fall. Since the demand is elastic there would be a decrease in the value imported videos from USA to Britain. As a result there would be a decrease in the demand for US dollars. This is shown in the figure. £/US$ D1 S D2 E1 £1.00 = US$1 £0.80 = US$1 E2 S D2 D1 Q2 Q1 QUS$ EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 17. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £0.80 = US$1. This means the value of the British pound has increased relative to the US dollar. 6 b ii) An increase in price of US videos with inelastic demand As the price of US videos increases, the demand for such by the British would fall. Since the demand is inelastic there would be an increase in the value imported videos from USA to Britain. As a result there would be an increase in the demand for US dollars. This is shown in the figure. £/US$ D2 S D1 £1.50 = US$1 E2 £1.00 = US$1 E1 S D2 D1 Q1 Q2 QUS$ As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £1.50 = US$1. That is the value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar. 6 b iii) Inflation in Britain. If there is inflation in Britain, then there would be an increase in imports from USA to Britain which increases the demand for US dollars. In addition there would also be a decrease in exports from Britain to USA which decreases the supply of US dollars. These two effects are shown in the figure. £/US$ S2 D2 S1 D1 E2 £3.00 = US$1 E1 £1.00 = US$1 S1 S2 D1 D2 Q2 Q1 QUS$ EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS
  • 18. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £3..00 = US$1. This implies that the value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar. 6 b iv) Increase financial investments from Britain to USA An increase in investments from Britain to USA increases the demand for US dollars. This is shown in the figure. £/US$ D2 S D1 £1.50 = US$1 E2 £1.00 = US$1 E1 S D2 D1 Q1 Q2 QUS$ As shown the exchange rate changes from £1.00 = US$1 to £1..50 = US$1. As such the value of the British pound has decreased relative to the US dollar. EDWARD BAHAW CAPE ECONOMICS PAST PAPER SOLUTIONS