The investment duo of Mark and Michele bravely tackle the popular Investment Myths head on.
Need to know if a trading myth is true or false? Call the Investment Mythbusters! Inspired by the popular TV series with a surprisingly similar name, Vunani Private Clients' Investment Managers Mark Weetman and Michele Santangelo have devoted themselves to combining elements of science, statistics, investment theory and some good old-fashioned luck to determine if popular investment beliefs are true or false.
Join the Vunani Private Clients’ team on the 21st May 2014 when they expose financial myths to their intensive analysis. No financial scuttle bug is safe when these professionals are around. Any bar room stock tips, trading strategy or Investment advice that you need testing, give these guys a call – or at least drop an email!
So join our trading team, who will be either busting or confirming some popular investment myths, including:
• Sell in May - like the soothsayer famously warned Julius Caesar, you need to “beware the Ides of March”, sorry that should have been the Ides of “May” with the sell in May myth.
• As Goes January, So Goes The Year!
• What has happened to Doctor Copper?
• Whether the Santa Clause rally will bring you the financial present you want, or will the Grinch will once again steal Xmas
And then they will show you how to trade them!
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Tier one data key with dollar strength setting up again Hantec Markets
A clutch of tier one data will enable traders to take a view on the path of US rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The US dollar remains a key outperformer of the major currencies and we consider the impact across forex, equities and commodities. We also look into key Brexit developments.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Join the Vunani Private Clients’ team on the 21st May 2014 when they expose financial myths to their intensive analysis. No financial scuttle bug is safe when these professionals are around. Any bar room stock tips, trading strategy or Investment advice that you need testing, give these guys a call – or at least drop an email!
So join our trading team, who will be either busting or confirming some popular investment myths, including:
• Sell in May - like the soothsayer famously warned Julius Caesar, you need to “beware the Ides of March”, sorry that should have been the Ides of “May” with the sell in May myth.
• As Goes January, So Goes The Year!
• What has happened to Doctor Copper?
• Whether the Santa Clause rally will bring you the financial present you want, or will the Grinch will once again steal Xmas
And then they will show you how to trade them!
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for May. This month we explore the reality behind market anomalies such as “sell in May and go away.”
Tier one data key with dollar strength setting up again Hantec Markets
A clutch of tier one data will enable traders to take a view on the path of US rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The US dollar remains a key outperformer of the major currencies and we consider the impact across forex, equities and commodities. We also look into key Brexit developments.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Brexit risks subside, with flash PMIs key data this weekHantec Markets
With Brexit being kicked into the long grass we look at the implications for sterling. What are the key factors to consider when looking at forex, equities and commodities this week? The flash PMIs are key on the economic calendar in the coming days.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
With the market gyrating like they were dangling from a bungee rope, now might be a good time to get serious about reviewing your charts. Today's letter is loaded with charts along with opinions.
The basic message from the study is that when the market has declined in the months of January and February, the rest of the year has been choppy and volatile.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
US dollar strengthening once more as focus remains on the data this weekHantec Markets
Are we set for another improvement in the dollar? There continue to be market reactions to the negative surprises, but there now seems to be a different mind-set to positive data surprises and this is showing in a turn around in sentiment on the greenback. Last week there was a sharp pick up in the Home Starts and Building permits which...
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
Are markets about to buy back into the dollar again? The outlook for the embattled greenback has been a major driver recently but is it looking stretched this week? We consider the outlook for forex markets, equity indices and commodities and at what the key drivers of markets are this week.
US inflation key to a potential dollar recovery this weekRichard Perry
The dollar has jumped in the wake of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report. However what has really changed, and is this a move that can be sustained by the dollar? We look at what the key factors to watch out for this week and the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets with a technical analysis of the major instruments.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Brexit risks subside, with flash PMIs key data this weekHantec Markets
With Brexit being kicked into the long grass we look at the implications for sterling. What are the key factors to consider when looking at forex, equities and commodities this week? The flash PMIs are key on the economic calendar in the coming days.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
With the market gyrating like they were dangling from a bungee rope, now might be a good time to get serious about reviewing your charts. Today's letter is loaded with charts along with opinions.
The basic message from the study is that when the market has declined in the months of January and February, the rest of the year has been choppy and volatile.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
US dollar strengthening once more as focus remains on the data this weekHantec Markets
Are we set for another improvement in the dollar? There continue to be market reactions to the negative surprises, but there now seems to be a different mind-set to positive data surprises and this is showing in a turn around in sentiment on the greenback. Last week there was a sharp pick up in the Home Starts and Building permits which...
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
Are markets about to buy back into the dollar again? The outlook for the embattled greenback has been a major driver recently but is it looking stretched this week? We consider the outlook for forex markets, equity indices and commodities and at what the key drivers of markets are this week.
US inflation key to a potential dollar recovery this weekRichard Perry
The dollar has jumped in the wake of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report. However what has really changed, and is this a move that can be sustained by the dollar? We look at what the key factors to watch out for this week and the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets with a technical analysis of the major instruments.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Is the medium term dollar rally about to break down?Hantec Markets
In today's Weekly Outlook we consider the progress of the dollar rally. What are the key factors impacting on forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming days.
China and expectations over a Fed rate hike continue to dominate trading sent...Hantec Markets
The build up to Non-farm Payrolls is always much hyped and as we get ever closer to the point of which a rate hike could be announced, the focus on tier one US economic data is magnified even more. On the headline figure 215,000 jobs added with an upward revision of last month to 231,000 is solid if a little unspectacular. Unemployment remains at 5.3% just above the 5.0%/5.2% that the Fed deems to be “full employment”. All fine so far. However, the average hourly earnings fell to 2.1% on the yearly data which remains stubbornly low.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
Everyone enjoys a nice surprise - especially the ones that cause you to grin ear to ear, smile non-stop and wish the moment will never end.
There can also be bad surprises - and these are not the least bit enjoyable.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we explain how governments are about to experience a bad surprise. And their reaction to these surprises will be significantly higher taxes for everyone.
There will also be a good surprise - adjusting your portfolios in anticipation of the bad surprise will allow you to not only preserve your capital, but also have you grinning ear to ear.
We invite you to read more.
Looks like Santa has left crude oil a lump of coal. The markets are deep into tax selling season here in the USA. The S&P 500 with 9% oil declined in Friday session.
This Invast report covered the October 2013 Portfolio Performance Review with emphasis on portfolio changes. We also mentioned trends in AGM sessions from reporting trading and earning numbers to growth plans like acquisitions and mergers. Lastly, we shared our book review of Tim Ferriss' The Four Hour Work Week with goal setting insights for traders and investors.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
1. Investment Mythbuster July 2104
Mark Weetman & Michele Santangelo
Vunani Private Clients
Why do we watch out for myths?
Seasonality of markets
Bit of fun, but tested with actual data!
Is there an actual trading strategy?
Past performance is no guarantee of future
returns but it still makes sense to look at
historical data to guide your trading and
investing.
It’s to create debate/encourage further
analysis
2. As Goes January, So Goes The Year!
Will the Santa Clause rally bring you the financial present you deserve
Turbo Tuesdays on the S&P.
What has happened to Doctor Copper?
Sell in May strategy
4. The January Effect – The Myth
If the market rises in January, the rest of the year will be positive as well. Some
optimists also predict that if the first week of the year is positive, then January itself
will show an increase.
The experiment is taking January returns and comparing them the average/total
returns return of the following 11 months.
The January effect has only been able to correctly predict the rest of the years
performance 55.6% of the time.
The correlation between the two is only 0.19.
Not the kind of accurate predictor we would have expected.
7. The Santa Claus Rally – The Myth
Also known as the “December Effect”
A Santa Claus rally is a rise in share prices in the month of December, generally seen
over the final week of trading prior to the new year.
Black Friday 18 December 2013 – 3 January 2014
8. Reasons for The Santa Claus Rally
Upbeat forecasts from retailers around the holiday season
Positive holiday cheer turns even the most bearish and pessimistic investors positive.
U.S. investors tend to fund retirement accounts at the start of the year. – Traders
buying in anticipation of the market inflows.
Window dressing – Large investors propping up their positions in order to make their
performance look better and possibly increase their performance fees (illegal!).
9. Average return for all non-December
months since 1896 is 0.5%.
For Decembers average return is 1.2%.
Since 1950, 18th Dec – Jan 3rd avg. 1.5%
Last 20 years, the S&P 500 on average gained 1.79% during the month of
December.
The S&P 500 has posted negative performance only 4 times
December ranks as the 3rd BEST performing month for the US stock market.
10. Here are the numbers – TOP40 18 Year
December is the best performing month
on the JSE, averaging 2.6%
13. So here’s what you need to do
By the 1st December, If we believe that the Santa Clause rally is on the cards
we promise to supply you at least four trading ideas.
Last years stock picks …
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21. Turbo Tuesdays on the S&P500
Always be long the S&P500 on a Tuesday – The Myth
24. Over the last 10 years S&P rallied the most on Tuesdays.
Tuesday is 3 times more profitable than any other day.
10 Year History
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday
SPX -0.010% 0.105% 0.018% 0.026% 0.008%
TOP40 0.093% 0.046% 0.075% 0.130% 0.004%
25. Turbo Tuesdays is plausible on the S&P but what about the JSE
10 Year History
Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday
SPX -0.010% 0.105% 0.018% 0.026% 0.008%
TOP40 0.093% 0.046% 0.075% 0.130% 0.004%
32 times more profitable than Friday the worst
performing day.
1.4 times more profitable than Monday the
second best trading day.
27. Doctor Copper – The Myth
Market lingo for the base metal that is “reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics” because of
its ability to predict turning points in the global economy.
Because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy - from
homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission - demand for
copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is
reflected in the market price of copper.
Generally, rising copper prices suggest strong copper demand and hence a growing global
economy, while declining copper prices may indicate sluggish demand and an imminent
economic slowdown.
28. Rising copper price → Rising copper demand → Growing global economy
Investors are cautioned that Doctor Copper is not infallible:
Temporary shortage of copper may lead to rising prices even as the global economy is
slowing down.
A copper glut may cause lower prices despite robust economic growth.
Doctor Copper – The Myth
29. Turns out when Copper makes a new
2-year low, the S&P 500 doesn’t do too
bad.
Three months later it is about flat, but a
year out it jumps 17%.
30. We found no real statistical relationship between copper and the returns on the JSE.
Analysis shows only a 0.45 correlation and virtually no short term predictive properties.
Note the significant disconnect overt the last 3 years.
Doctor Copper – Effect on the JSE
33. Sell in May – The Myth
Much is made each year of the old City adage that it pays to avoid the markets over
summer: "Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St. Leger Day".
The idea was that with so many sports-related social events in the summer months -
Royal Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley Royal Regatta, Cowes Week, and ending with St.
Leger flat race, on September 13 this year - that trading volumes plummet and stock
market fortunes wane.
Summer holidays – no one at the office
Of course in today's globalised markets, this seems at best far-fetched. The actual
figures also cast considerable doubt on the theory.
34. Sell in May – The Facts on the JSE
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rank ( 1is best performing month) 3 9 6 4 5 12 10 8 11 2 7 1
Return (18Year average) 2.19 0.62 1.30 1.85 1.36 -0.99 0.54 0.65 0.14 2.39 1.00 2.60
May in fact the 5th best performing month up on average 1.36%.
May is negative 42.1% of the time. Including 2014.
June is negative 63.15% of the time.
Had an investor sold every May and bought back during Sep, would have missed out on
1.7% annualized return.
Even selling at the end of May and reinvesting in September would have resulted in an
investor being 0.09% worse off and even more if you take costs into account.
35. Sell in May
June to September is the softest period on
the JSE. Averaging 0.09% return.
The Myth should be sell at the beginning of
June and buy back at the end of June.
36. Blowing things up – Mythbuster style
Blowing things up – Market Crash every 5-7 years
37. Blowing things up – Mythbuster style
Much talk about market bubbles & potential
crashes.
The financial system experiences a crisis
“every five to seven years,”
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon,
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Despite concerns about high prices (from
people like me), stocks have meandered higher
over the past 6 months. And they are now,
once again, setting new all-time highs.
38. The Fed is now tightening
Stocks are expensive
39. While researching the views of analysts and market gurus over the last few weeks in
preparation for this myth we noticed numerous reports spanning over the last 3 years
all saying a crash is immanent. Many of those analysts just re published their research
just changing the dates.
The potential for a crash or a market correction is certainly possible.
Exactly when we don’t know.
40. Hedge your equity portfolio using:
• Futures
• Options
Profit from the collapse by shorting shares or Single Stock Futures or eCFDs
Buy the dips! The market is the best generator of wealth over the long term
Blowing things up – Market Crash every 5-7 years
41. As Goes January, So Goes The Year!
Will the Santa Clause rally
Turbo Tuesdays on the S&P.
What has happened to Doctor Copper?
Sell in May strategy
42. Mark Weetman and Michele Santangelo
Vunani Private Clients
Mark@vunaniprivateclients.co.za
Michele@vunaniprivateclients.co.za
011 384 2914
Questions?