With the market gyrating like they were dangling from a bungee rope, now might be a good time to get serious about reviewing your charts. Today's letter is loaded with charts along with opinions.
- The document discusses the impact of lower oil prices on consumer spending and the US economy, noting that lower gas prices act as a tax break that will likely boost consumer spending, especially during the holiday season.
- It also discusses recent gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes, noting that indicators are overbought but the upward trend may continue. Volume has been average.
- Gold prices are discussed as well, noting the chart looks "truly awful" and further declines are possible based on technical indicators.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets. It discusses the following key points:
- Equities were flat with the S&P 500 rising 0.1% and developed markets down 0.5%. The US PMI came in at 48.6 indicating contraction and weakness in the machinery and metals sectors due to a weak Eurozone and slowing China.
- Bonds were flat with US Treasury yields falling 4 basis points. The Japanese government bond yield sits at 0.3% with its 2-year yield in negative territory, prompting the shift to equities.
- The US dollar strengthened on expected rate hikes while the Euro faces
The document discusses the Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and the impact on investments. It states that higher rates would signal economic strength and a return to normal rates after the Great Recession. While rates rising may cause initial volatility, historically the stock market has continued to perform well over longer periods as the economy strengthens. The document recommends staying invested in equities, as rates rising from very low levels are unlikely to significantly slow economic growth. Large cap stocks, international equities, and sectors like technology, finance and healthcare tend to perform well when rates rise.
US dollar strengthening once more as focus remains on the data this weekHantec Markets
Are we set for another improvement in the dollar? There continue to be market reactions to the negative surprises, but there now seems to be a different mind-set to positive data surprises and this is showing in a turn around in sentiment on the greenback. Last week there was a sharp pick up in the Home Starts and Building permits which...
The document provides an overview of global economic conditions and financial markets in the first quarter of 2013 from the perspective of an investment counselling firm. It discusses continued signs of economic healing globally, with the largest risks diminished. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. Public debt levels remain high in developed nations. Financial markets have seen positive returns and equity inflows, despite mixed economic data. Specific economic forecasts are provided for various countries and regions.
With the market gyrating like they were dangling from a bungee rope, now might be a good time to get serious about reviewing your charts. Today's letter is loaded with charts along with opinions.
- The document discusses the impact of lower oil prices on consumer spending and the US economy, noting that lower gas prices act as a tax break that will likely boost consumer spending, especially during the holiday season.
- It also discusses recent gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes, noting that indicators are overbought but the upward trend may continue. Volume has been average.
- Gold prices are discussed as well, noting the chart looks "truly awful" and further declines are possible based on technical indicators.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent developments in equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets. It discusses the following key points:
- Equities were flat with the S&P 500 rising 0.1% and developed markets down 0.5%. The US PMI came in at 48.6 indicating contraction and weakness in the machinery and metals sectors due to a weak Eurozone and slowing China.
- Bonds were flat with US Treasury yields falling 4 basis points. The Japanese government bond yield sits at 0.3% with its 2-year yield in negative territory, prompting the shift to equities.
- The US dollar strengthened on expected rate hikes while the Euro faces
The document discusses the Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and the impact on investments. It states that higher rates would signal economic strength and a return to normal rates after the Great Recession. While rates rising may cause initial volatility, historically the stock market has continued to perform well over longer periods as the economy strengthens. The document recommends staying invested in equities, as rates rising from very low levels are unlikely to significantly slow economic growth. Large cap stocks, international equities, and sectors like technology, finance and healthcare tend to perform well when rates rise.
US dollar strengthening once more as focus remains on the data this weekHantec Markets
Are we set for another improvement in the dollar? There continue to be market reactions to the negative surprises, but there now seems to be a different mind-set to positive data surprises and this is showing in a turn around in sentiment on the greenback. Last week there was a sharp pick up in the Home Starts and Building permits which...
The document provides an overview of global economic conditions and financial markets in the first quarter of 2013 from the perspective of an investment counselling firm. It discusses continued signs of economic healing globally, with the largest risks diminished. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. Public debt levels remain high in developed nations. Financial markets have seen positive returns and equity inflows, despite mixed economic data. Specific economic forecasts are provided for various countries and regions.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
The document provides commentary on various financial markets and economic indicators. It discusses:
1. Employer tactics like making all employees part-time or using automation to avoid paying $15 minimum wage and benefits.
2. The impact of a strong US dollar on multinational company earnings and exports. The dollar is at a support level and could impact future earnings if it gains strength.
3. Commentary on movements in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, and gold. Technical indicators are discussed for each market.
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
7 wells fargo 2015 mid-year outlook - turning points123jumpad
The document provides guidance from investment strategists on the global economic and market outlook. It discusses three key themes: 1) reasons for an expected turnaround in global growth, particularly in Europe, 2) factors to watch in stock and bond markets as earnings expectations and interest rates rise, and 3) where to allocate as rates rise. The strategists recommend staying invested in the US stock market but also looking overseas for growth, emphasizing income-producing fixed income, and being patient as the Fed gradually raises rates.
“Sell in May and go away!” Well maybe, our suggestion is to use trailing stops or hard stops on your positions. We suggest that approach because the truth is that we do not know when the correction or plunge will occur, we only know that it will occur. Remember bull markets can last longer that you might ever have believed. The US market is a bit long in the tooth as a bull market and lasting advances might be harder to achieve thus we advise caution. We are not telling you to sell just to make sure that any long positions have stops in place. The rally that began in March of 2009 has proceeded higher with nothing more than a couple of hiccups along the way. The rally has been strong and predictable. The longer a trend lasts the stronger the reversal will be so with that in mind, don’t try to predict the end of the bull just keep your protection in place.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
The document recommends increasing the federal funds rate by 0.25% beginning in 2016 to push towards monetary policy normalization and a stronger economy. It argues that economic activity has been expanding moderately across several sectors including household spending, business investments, housing, and the labor market. Inflation remains below targets but unemployment has held steady. A gradual quarterly increase of 0.25% would allow the markets to adjust without being too aggressive as the economy improves and strengthens.
The document provides an overview and analysis of global investment markets in 2014 and perspectives on 2015.
The key points are:
- In 2014, the US stock market performed strongly while European and UK markets lagged. Emerging markets struggled overall but India and China saw gains. Commodity prices fell, hurting mining and energy stocks.
- Interest rates remained low globally due to ongoing disinflationary pressures. The author expects rates to stay low for longer than markets anticipate, particularly in the UK and Europe.
- Bond markets performed well in 2014 contrary to expectations of rising rates and underperforming bonds. The author's cautious macro outlook and expectation of low rates proved correct.
- The ECB has begun quantitative easing which will depress the euro relative to the US dollar. This will make US exports more expensive abroad while increasing imports to the US. It could lead to layoffs in US industries like oil as demand declines for domestic goods.
- The authors believe the FOMC will not raise rates this year due to a weak economy and job growth. Higher rates could appreciate the dollar further and negatively impact US exports and multinational corporate earnings.
- Most stock indices declined slightly on Friday but indicators are pointing lower. Crude oil continued declining on oversupply concerns while the strong dollar pushed gold lower intraday. The US dollar index reached new highs not seen since 2003.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
- Markets rallied on news of a US debt deal and strong earnings from Google. Stocks like Google and Priceline rose to new highs.
- With the debt deal delaying any tapering of QE by the Fed until next year, and a weaker dollar, stocks are positioned to continue moving higher in the near future.
- Various economic indicators like industrial metals and emerging markets have also shown signs of strength, further supporting an upward trajectory for stocks.
Will the recovery bulls wilt quickly this week?Hantec Markets
There is an air of fear and concern that is sweeping through markets now. It is almost as though traders and investors have lost faith in the ability of central banks to control global markets. In the two weeks following the Bank of Japan moving to negative interest rates, the Japanese yen perversely strengthened by over 1000 pips against the dollar.
1) The document outlines an investment strategy report called Animal Spirits that analyzes macroeconomic, fundamental, and quantitative factors to provide investment context and tactical recommendations over 3-6 months.
2) It discusses the current macroeconomic backdrop of deflation fueled by shocks like falling oil prices and discusses how this has led to underperformance of emerging markets and commodities.
3) It argues that a paradigm shift away from deflation may be underway, consisting of emerging markets outperforming in late 2016 as commodities rebound, followed by the Fed raising rates in early 2017 if falling oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations.
This is a short week for the US markets. Thursday is Thanksgiving and Friday, well you are supposed to shop until you drop so the US markets close early to help you achieve that goal. Gold anybody? Russia has been acquiring lots of gold. Are they really that smart or is this in their grand plan? Swiss are voting on repatriating their gold and pegging it to their currency.
1) Global HNWI wealth totaled $40.7 trillion in 2007, a 9.4% increase from 2006. The number of HNWIs grew to over 10 million, a 6% rise.
2) Emerging markets like the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Latin America saw the largest increases in both HNWI populations and wealth. However, mature economies like the US and parts of Europe slowed significantly in the second half of 2007.
3) Real GDP growth decelerated slightly worldwide in 2007 to 5.1%, with the US slowing to 2.1% growth. However, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia experienced stronger growth than in previous years, led by emerging
Trade dispute and the US consumer are key this weekHantec Markets
The outlook for Fed rate hikes has shifted as the trade dispute has begun to bite. However, is this a move that has gone too far as the US pulls back from tariffs on Mexico. The US consumer indicators could be key. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
The market continues is trek higher even with, a not so stellar, “jobs report.” There is too much sideline money waiting for a pull backs to jump on board, therefore any retreat will likely be
shallow. One of these days, the bounce will die like a beach ball that has been deflated. Until that time, up up and away we go. The S&P 500 looks as though it is forming a rounding top which could either launch a retreat or become a spring board for the next assault to the upper stratosphere. So far, we have been correct in keeping our stops tight and behaving defensively. The world is chaotic with hot spots all over. There will come a time when one of these hot spots will become an erupting volcano. The good news is that here in the USA we are not involved on our own soil.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
The document provides commentary on various financial markets and economic indicators. It discusses:
1. Employer tactics like making all employees part-time or using automation to avoid paying $15 minimum wage and benefits.
2. The impact of a strong US dollar on multinational company earnings and exports. The dollar is at a support level and could impact future earnings if it gains strength.
3. Commentary on movements in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, and gold. Technical indicators are discussed for each market.
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
7 wells fargo 2015 mid-year outlook - turning points123jumpad
The document provides guidance from investment strategists on the global economic and market outlook. It discusses three key themes: 1) reasons for an expected turnaround in global growth, particularly in Europe, 2) factors to watch in stock and bond markets as earnings expectations and interest rates rise, and 3) where to allocate as rates rise. The strategists recommend staying invested in the US stock market but also looking overseas for growth, emphasizing income-producing fixed income, and being patient as the Fed gradually raises rates.
“Sell in May and go away!” Well maybe, our suggestion is to use trailing stops or hard stops on your positions. We suggest that approach because the truth is that we do not know when the correction or plunge will occur, we only know that it will occur. Remember bull markets can last longer that you might ever have believed. The US market is a bit long in the tooth as a bull market and lasting advances might be harder to achieve thus we advise caution. We are not telling you to sell just to make sure that any long positions have stops in place. The rally that began in March of 2009 has proceeded higher with nothing more than a couple of hiccups along the way. The rally has been strong and predictable. The longer a trend lasts the stronger the reversal will be so with that in mind, don’t try to predict the end of the bull just keep your protection in place.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
The document recommends increasing the federal funds rate by 0.25% beginning in 2016 to push towards monetary policy normalization and a stronger economy. It argues that economic activity has been expanding moderately across several sectors including household spending, business investments, housing, and the labor market. Inflation remains below targets but unemployment has held steady. A gradual quarterly increase of 0.25% would allow the markets to adjust without being too aggressive as the economy improves and strengthens.
The document provides an overview and analysis of global investment markets in 2014 and perspectives on 2015.
The key points are:
- In 2014, the US stock market performed strongly while European and UK markets lagged. Emerging markets struggled overall but India and China saw gains. Commodity prices fell, hurting mining and energy stocks.
- Interest rates remained low globally due to ongoing disinflationary pressures. The author expects rates to stay low for longer than markets anticipate, particularly in the UK and Europe.
- Bond markets performed well in 2014 contrary to expectations of rising rates and underperforming bonds. The author's cautious macro outlook and expectation of low rates proved correct.
- The ECB has begun quantitative easing which will depress the euro relative to the US dollar. This will make US exports more expensive abroad while increasing imports to the US. It could lead to layoffs in US industries like oil as demand declines for domestic goods.
- The authors believe the FOMC will not raise rates this year due to a weak economy and job growth. Higher rates could appreciate the dollar further and negatively impact US exports and multinational corporate earnings.
- Most stock indices declined slightly on Friday but indicators are pointing lower. Crude oil continued declining on oversupply concerns while the strong dollar pushed gold lower intraday. The US dollar index reached new highs not seen since 2003.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
- Markets rallied on news of a US debt deal and strong earnings from Google. Stocks like Google and Priceline rose to new highs.
- With the debt deal delaying any tapering of QE by the Fed until next year, and a weaker dollar, stocks are positioned to continue moving higher in the near future.
- Various economic indicators like industrial metals and emerging markets have also shown signs of strength, further supporting an upward trajectory for stocks.
Will the recovery bulls wilt quickly this week?Hantec Markets
There is an air of fear and concern that is sweeping through markets now. It is almost as though traders and investors have lost faith in the ability of central banks to control global markets. In the two weeks following the Bank of Japan moving to negative interest rates, the Japanese yen perversely strengthened by over 1000 pips against the dollar.
1) The document outlines an investment strategy report called Animal Spirits that analyzes macroeconomic, fundamental, and quantitative factors to provide investment context and tactical recommendations over 3-6 months.
2) It discusses the current macroeconomic backdrop of deflation fueled by shocks like falling oil prices and discusses how this has led to underperformance of emerging markets and commodities.
3) It argues that a paradigm shift away from deflation may be underway, consisting of emerging markets outperforming in late 2016 as commodities rebound, followed by the Fed raising rates in early 2017 if falling oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations.
This is a short week for the US markets. Thursday is Thanksgiving and Friday, well you are supposed to shop until you drop so the US markets close early to help you achieve that goal. Gold anybody? Russia has been acquiring lots of gold. Are they really that smart or is this in their grand plan? Swiss are voting on repatriating their gold and pegging it to their currency.
1) Global HNWI wealth totaled $40.7 trillion in 2007, a 9.4% increase from 2006. The number of HNWIs grew to over 10 million, a 6% rise.
2) Emerging markets like the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Latin America saw the largest increases in both HNWI populations and wealth. However, mature economies like the US and parts of Europe slowed significantly in the second half of 2007.
3) Real GDP growth decelerated slightly worldwide in 2007 to 5.1%, with the US slowing to 2.1% growth. However, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia experienced stronger growth than in previous years, led by emerging
Trade dispute and the US consumer are key this weekHantec Markets
The outlook for Fed rate hikes has shifted as the trade dispute has begun to bite. However, is this a move that has gone too far as the US pulls back from tariffs on Mexico. The US consumer indicators could be key. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
The market continues is trek higher even with, a not so stellar, “jobs report.” There is too much sideline money waiting for a pull backs to jump on board, therefore any retreat will likely be
shallow. One of these days, the bounce will die like a beach ball that has been deflated. Until that time, up up and away we go. The S&P 500 looks as though it is forming a rounding top which could either launch a retreat or become a spring board for the next assault to the upper stratosphere. So far, we have been correct in keeping our stops tight and behaving defensively. The world is chaotic with hot spots all over. There will come a time when one of these hot spots will become an erupting volcano. The good news is that here in the USA we are not involved on our own soil.
The document provides an analysis and outlook for various financial markets including stocks, crude oil, gold, and the US Dollar index based on technical indicators. It notes bullish patterns forming in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes and predicts potential short-term rallies. It also comments on recent moves higher in crude oil prices which it attributes partly to US dollar weakness. The analysis finds gold and the US dollar in sideways trading ranges for the near future. It closes with standard risk disclosure language.
This past week the US markets rallied in the Monday session, retreated in the Tuesday and Wednesday sessions, rallied in Thursday session and then on Friday the "Jobs Report" was release in the morning and the market gave back all the weeks gains on Good Friday. What is going to happen on Monday? How will this effect the US Dollar, crude oil and gold?
We are entering a very strange economic condition where most of the central banks in the globe,
except the US of course, are making extreme efforts to deflate their currencies and increase
liquidity in their markets by printing money
We are getting fairly close to a short-term top. There are too many analysts looking for a correction. Stay long keep your stops tight and if elected keep the proceeds in cash.
This document provides commentary and analysis on various financial markets and indexes from July 31, 2016. It includes quotes from The Wonderful Wizard of Oz relevant to the upcoming US presidential election. Market summaries are given for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, gold, and currencies like the British Pound in the context of Brexit. Charts and technical indicators are referenced to describe recent trends and levels of support and resistance. Potential risks for traders are also noted.
Are we all ready for the "Year of the Monkey?" It has been interesting! We see some trading opportunities but remember to just visit the trade and not marry it!
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent market movements in response to the Swiss National Bank allowing the Swiss franc to float freely. It discusses the rally in the franc and fallout for some firms. It also analyzes price movements and indicators for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, crude oil, gold, and US Dollar Index from the prior week. Recommendations are given to remain alert and watch for effects of Swiss franc funds moving into US and European markets.
Looks like Santa has left crude oil a lump of coal. The markets are deep into tax selling season here in the USA. The S&P 500 with 9% oil declined in Friday session.
Mr Market wants to go higher but it needs to settle back and absorb some of its recent gains. Crude oil and gold look awful, while the US Dollar Index is on its way to a "moon shot."
Option Queen Newsletter July 20, 2014 with chartsScutify
- Old vintage clothing and selling homes as a "for sale by owner" are ways for people to make extra cash when money gets tight. Listing a home as FSBO can save the 6% realtor commission, and MLS services allow FSBO listings for about $295. Basic photography for online listings costs $100-350.
- The stock markets were up last week despite global chaos, as the conflicts have not impacted the US economy. Interest rates remain low, benefiting the stock market, though rates will likely rise eventually.
- Most market indexes rallied or traded range-bound last week. Indicators show mixed signals across indexes, with some pointing higher and others lower or neutral. The document analy
Americans feel financially strained due to stagnant wages and rising costs of living over the past 40 years. While automation has eliminated some jobs, a larger issue is a skills gap as the culture pushes more people into white-collar jobs instead of trades with strong demand. Technology will likely continue disrupting jobs but widespread social problems from unemployment are decades away.
This shortened week has been very exciting for the bulls with three of the four days bragging of robust rallies. Even the retreat in the shortened Christmas Eve session was positive for the market insomuch as not much ground was lost.
Gold is the rally for real? Crude oil how low can it go? The S&P 500 looks like a roller coaster ride. What to do next? Get one professional's opinion!
The document provides an overview and analysis of various financial markets including stocks, commodities, currencies, and precious metals from March 15, 2015. It notes recent declines in stocks while small-cap stocks and the Russell 2000 have remained stronger. Commodities like oil declined further while gold and currencies like the US dollar increased. Overall the markets seem overextended on the upside or downside depending on the asset, and volatility is expected around upcoming futures and options expirations.
- The S&P 500 hit a resistance level twice last week according to a horizontal line drawn based on past behavior, but volume is declining in the recent four-day rally, which is typical of the wishy-washy market.
- Earnings season has had some positive and negative surprises, and mergers are beginning to appear as companies take advantage of cheap borrowing costs.
- Most indexes gained on Friday but volume was low on some new highs, a sign the market may need rest before further gains, though indicators still point higher overall. Gold and oil retreated as the dollar rallied.
The sentiment levels show that there are lots of bulls waiting for a correction and lots of bulls
still out there. Meanwhile the bears have dwindled to a few scared animals. This week we have
the Scottish vote for independence on Thursday. While it really doesn’t impact the US markets
it will have a huge effect on the UK banks and debt market. After all if Scotland can declare
independence why not other locals such as areas of Spain and Italy….Catalonia anybody?
Lots of strange things happening this past week. Did the market turn the corner or was this just a one-day-wonder bounce. The US Dollar and crude oil have disconnect, well for now. Read more to solve these mysteries.
he world is changing and we have to learn to adjust to new technologies. The markets have been viewed as volatile.....where were you during the highly volatile tech rally at the turn of the century. Let us remind you that during those years,trading haults were triggered frequently. Today, we have nothing like that to deal with. Hummm guess volatile is a relative term.
China and expectations over a Fed rate hike continue to dominate trading sent...Hantec Markets
The build up to Non-farm Payrolls is always much hyped and as we get ever closer to the point of which a rate hike could be announced, the focus on tier one US economic data is magnified even more. On the headline figure 215,000 jobs added with an upward revision of last month to 231,000 is solid if a little unspectacular. Unemployment remains at 5.3% just above the 5.0%/5.2% that the Fed deems to be “full employment”. All fine so far. However, the average hourly earnings fell to 2.1% on the yearly data which remains stubbornly low.
Surprise! Freight rail traffic is down 16.1% for the month of April. In case you believe that this
is a fluke number, it is not. The freight rail traffic has been down every month since November.
Okay so not everything was down, vehicle part were up as well as coke and chemicals.
Petroleum products were down 25.1% and even grain mill products, grains, and pulp and paper
were down. Coal, is a disaster, down big every month.
Tax reform remains key with US CPI in focus this weekRichard Perry
The perception of progress in US tax reform remains a key driver of financial markets with CPI inflation in focus. Treasury yields are still a key factor in how the US dollar trades and for this tax reform plays a key role. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week
Get your popcorn here for the big debate on television tomorrow. The market is not doing much, maybe the debating wizards will give it a reason to move, one way or the other.
This document provides an economic outlook and key financial indicators for 2015. It summarizes that global and US economic growth is expected to improve slightly in 2015, while the transition in China continues. Australia's growth is forecast in the 2.75-3.25% range. Interest rates are expected to remain low in the first half of 2015. The sharemarket is tipped to end 2015 higher, supported by valuations and balance sheets. Housing price growth is projected to moderate to 4-7% due to increased supply. Risks include oil-producing economies and deflation in developed nations.
The document discusses the impacts of lower crude oil prices on the economy. While lower prices provide initial benefits to consumers through cost savings, the declines could negatively impact industries and jobs. As crude oil prices fall below $65, large job cuts are expected in the recovery industry. Entire towns have grown due to the shale industry boom, but this growth may now halt. Exports are also declining which could reduce production and employment as demand drops both domestically and abroad. The financial markets are nearing record highs but crude oil remains weak, and weakness in the energy sector could warn of a short-lived economic recovery in the US.
Silver broke long-term support at $18.50 per ounce, offering a target of $15.50/ounce*. First, expect retracement to respect the new resistance level. Gold is likely to follow Silver to a new four-year low.
Features of trading stocks on Scutify using the Tradier Brokerage platform. Get access to real time Tweets, Scuttles and charts on your favorite stocks before placing a trade. Get up to the minute information on your Open Positions and more. www.scutify.com/trade
The document provides a weekly market summary and outlook for various indexes and commodities. It notes that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 ended the week lower after reaching new highs earlier. The Russell 2000 and crude oil performed poorly, with indicators pointing lower. Gold also looks weak with support at $1182. The US dollar index remains strong with indicators pointing higher still. In closing, the author advises caution given mixed signals in markets and recommends tight stops if positions are held.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
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STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
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In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
1. Jeanette Schwarz Young, CFP®
, CMT, M.S.
Jordan Young, CMT
83 Highwood Terrace
Weehawken, New Jersey 07086
www.OptnQueen.com
December 29, 2014
The Option Queen Letter
By the Option Royals
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!
There will be no letter next week.
Does the Fed’s action or verbiage indicating that it will normalize its policy tell us that its policy
is abnormal? Perhaps, it tells us that this was a failed policy that they need to retract without
admission of failure. Yes, we believe that the Fed’s policy failed the middle class and that the
beneficiaries of these policies were the banks, corporations and the wealthy omitting the average
wage earner. Simply put, the Fed greased the wrong gears leaving the average person with little
cash in their pockets to spend on discretionary items.
We clearly see the benefit of lower crude oil prices as a middle income tax cut which allowed
workers finally believe that the reduction in fuel costs will last. This confidence helped
encourage them to spend their extra cash on items for the holiday season. It would appear that
initially the drop in fuel cost was viewed as possibly temporary and thus wasn’t accepted as a
lasting trend this might account for the delay in spending. After a while the drop in crude oil’s
price became believable and the extra cash was spent. This is an important lesson for the Fed to
learn. The average worker can stimulate this economy but to do so there needs to be a
mechanism of getting the workers more spendable cash, or, a tax break of sorts. Giving money to
the ultra-wealthy will not grease the economic wheels. This is a lesson we should have learned
by now.
At this point in the economic expansion we, here in the USA, have not felt the side effects of
cheaper crude oil in our energy markets. Once this effect is felt, we will see a sharp reduction in
exploration and development permits and as a result of that, reductions in the work force. You
may say, so what but it isn’t a so what. This industry helped the USA emerge from the financial
crisis and was a leader in stimulating jobs and growth. Now with the reduction in the price of
crude oil, it has become cost ineffective to continue recovering crude. We haven’t even touched
on the huge debt load these companies have taken in their exploration and recovery of crude.
This has a wide effect on towns that have been revived to supply goods and services for these
energy companies and, oh by the way, rail transportation which has enjoyed tremendous growth
attributable to the movement of crude products.
We haven’t even opened Pandora’s Box with regard to the very strong US Dollar and its effects
on the USA exports whose products have become expensive to the rest of the globe as our dollar
becomes stronger. This will again disrupt our balance of trade which will also be impacted by
increases in importation of foreign cheap oil. Yes this is a well-orchestrated event by the Saudi’s
that have allowed, by fueling supply, the price of oil to drop. Their purpose is to bankrupt
2. Russia and put the US shale market out of business. So they make less money but they recapture
the markets.
The positive side of the strong US Dollar is that it is a benefit for those countries with weaker
currencies to sell their stuff to the US consumers. This will provide some much needed stimulus
for that sale and a demand for their products that are cheaper than the US products. By this
action we could actually help the rest of the globe by increasing imports and demands for their
products. This will help move them into a more financially favorable light.
While the USA is the strongest and the best of the bad now, this could easily change in the near
future. Maybe Europe is poised to stabilize and grow. Maybe emerging markets will benefit by
exporting their goods to the US. These are possibilities for 2015 and something to look for. It
might be a good time to start nibbling on some possible growth stories away from the US shores.
The S&P 500 enjoyed a low volume rally in the Friday session scoring yet another new high for
the contract. The market was up 0.37% or 6.75 handles (points) on the day. The stochastic
indicator is overbought yet as you know, this condition can persist for a very long time. The
lines short and long lines are together at the moment. Our own indicator is still positive although
the lines look as though they will cross in the next session. The RSI shows a muted slow upward
drift approaching the overbought area with some room on the upside. We will forgive the
volume in this past week as investors were involved in parties and not trading. We do not expect
to see anything different in the coming shortened last week of the trading year. Maybe some tax
loss candidates will appear from the energy and commodity sectors but we do not expect to see
much action this week. The 5-day exponential moving average is 2071.45. The top of the
Bollinger Band is 2111.95 and the lower edge is seen at 1977.92. The chart shows a slow
upside trending market. The wonderful thing about Market Profile charts is that you see when
the trades occurred; additionally you can add volume profiles to see where the high volume area
was. Clearly 2086.00 was a high volume area representing 12.7% of the day’s meager volume.
The most frequently traded price was 2081.52 but this price only had 0.6% of the day’s volume.
The 30 minute Market Profile chart shows us that the lion’s share of the trading in the Friday
session was positive. We are left with a bimodal profile heavily skewed to the upside. Yes, we
are using full day charts not just day-session and our charts include the overnight sessions. The
daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart has a stunning upside target of 2619.43. There is
absolutely nothing negative on this chart save the lack of volume. The 60 minute 0.1% by 3-box
chart is also positive but without the more aggressive upside target. Still you see a lack of
volume on the most recent rally which, again is of concern. Here is the take-away from all this
information: the market is getting tired and beginning to lose momentum on the upside. The
easiest direct for the market to take is to the upside insomuch as there is no overhead supply.
Currently the buy-the-dips crowd is sitting and waiting to put a toe in the market waters and this
will support the market on any downdrafts. There is no reason to believe that the Fed is going to
raise interest rates anytime soon. The euphoria in the market is beginning to become worrisome.
We continue to advise to keep stops tight and make use of trailing stops of very profitable
positions.
3.
4.
5. The NASDAQ 100 rallied 30 handles (points) in the Friday session but failed to make a new
high for the year. We expect to the new high printed shortly. The session on Friday added 0.7%
on the day and was the best performing financial index. All of the indicators that we follow
herein are issuing a buy-signal. The 5-period exponential moving average is 4281.64. The top
6. of the Bollinger Band is 4384.09 and the lower edge is seen at 4133.03. Unfortunately, the
volume in the Friday session was extremely light. That said, the volume during this holiday
week in all the indices was light. We will need to see more volume come into this market. We
do not expect to see that in this coming holiday shortened week so; we will have to wait for the
return of regular trading beginning on January 5th
to see if we will get volume confirmation of
the rally and a breakout to the upside. Another point of interest is that we are losing momentum
at the moment. The daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart has an upside target of 5806.53.
There is an internal downside line but that was overcome. The 60 minute 0.1% by 3 box point
and figure chart is extremely positive with an old upside target of 4340.80. The 30 minute
Market Profile chart is a strange looking curve with the bulk of the trading, 0.9% of the volume
at 4291.74, also an important area on the daily Market Profile chart.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11. The Russell 2000 has enjoyed advances in seven of the past eight trading session and did print a
life-of-contract high in the Friday session. All of the indicators that we follow herein are
pointing higher. Unfortunately, the volume during this holiday shortened week was dreadful.
15.9% of the Friday volume was seen at 1211.50. The most frequently traded price, per bracket
was 1207 but that includes the overnight session and only represented 1% of the day’s volume.
The daily Market Profile chart tells a different story. We will have to wait until after the holiday
season to understand this action better. Just a thought, we could be forming a bear flag, not sure
yet, but that isn’t exactly positive and goes against seasonality. The January effect is usually
seen in this index. The up trending channel lines are 1203.46 and 1219.63. We continue to
advise a tight trailing stop for this market. We would also encourage the use of options to hedge
any position you might take in this index.
12.
13. The US Dollar Index gained in the Friday session but seems to be losing momentum to the
upside. The 5-period exponential moving average is 90.05. The top of the Bollinger Band is
90.511 and the lower edge is seen at 87.898. The Bollinger Band on the daily chart continues to
expand. Our own indicator is losing steam and has issued a sell-signal. The stochastic
14. indicator is overbought and has again issued a buy-signal. The RSI is not telling us much and is
near overbought levels. The volume see in the Friday session was exceedingly low. Remember
all the indices had low volume this past week so that this fact has little weight in this analysis.
The weekly and the monthly charts clearly show the US Dollar index breaking out to the upside.
The daily 0.3% by 3-box point and figure chart has a very positive look and an upside target of
90.49. The RSI on this chart continues to point higher but is overbought. The Bollinger Band on
the point and figure chart is contracting. The 60 minute 0.1% by 3-box point and figure chart
has a downside target of 88.56 and an internal down trend line, of course this bears watching.
The heaviest volume for this index occurred at the price of 90.32. The most frequently traded
price was 90.314. The profile is that of a triple bump curve. Remember the intermarket
relationships between the US Dollar index and commodities.
15.
16.
17.
18. Crude Oil retreated in the lightly traded Friday session. It looks as though this market is trying
to defend this level. The operative word is “trying,” who knows if it will be successful. It is
important for this market to say above 53.93. That said, the market probably will test that level
and try to break it. The action on that broken level will be very important to watch. Should
volume come in and the market free-fall, well it is possible, would be important to judge if this is
a flush-out. If so, it could be a point to consider a position for a quick snappy bounce. Keep
your eyes on the US Dollar. If the 53.93 level is breached and little action is seen, them it could
be a seller’s strike. That doesn’t mean that it is a buy but rather that most of the current selling is
over. We believe that crude oil could rally as part of the January effect. The 5-period
exponential moving average is 55.94. The top of the Bollinger Band is 70.86 and the lower edge
is seen at 50.57. As to the indicators, there is nothing really positive. The stochastic indicator
has been oversold for more than a month, the RSI is flat lining and our own indicator is flipping
between a buy and a sell. The weekly chart looks like crude oil is emulating Niagara Falls and
is oversold, but has been oversold for months and months. Both the RSI and stochastic indicator
are in single digits. The 60 minute 0.2% by 3-box chart has a downside target of 51.01. The
chart looks awful. The daily 1% by 3-box chart has an upside target of 64.02, but this chart does
not have a single uptrend line on it. The most frequently traded price in the Friday session was
56.10. Extreme caution is warranted in trading this product.
19.
20.
21.
22. Gold rallied in the Friday session on light volume. The market traded just above the downtrend
line and retreated from that level. The downtrend line is 1198.65. The uptrend line is 1154.70.
23. The 5-period exponential moving average is 1187.15. The top of the Bollinger Band is 1235.05
and the lower edge is seen at 1163.97. The downward trending channel lines are 1198.65 and
1158.70. The shorts will not become nervous and upset until this market closes above the
downtrend line and above 1203, 1214 and 1221 with volume and for more than two trading days.
Our own indicator has just issued a buy-signal. Both the stochastic indicator and the RSI are
pointing higher. The most frequently traded price in the Friday session was 1194.90 where
10.7% of the volume for the day was seen. The daily 1% by 3-box chart has an upside target of
1358.30. This chart has both internal uptrend and downtrend lines. The 60 minute 0.2% by 3-
box chart has a better more positive look. Again, we advise caution especially if trading from
the long side in a badly beaten up market.
27. Risk
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully
consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and
financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.