With the market gyrating like they were dangling from a bungee rope, now might be a good time to get serious about reviewing your charts. Today's letter is loaded with charts along with opinions.
This shortened week has been very exciting for the bulls with three of the four days bragging of robust rallies. Even the retreat in the shortened Christmas Eve session was positive for the market insomuch as not much ground was lost.
The document provides an analysis and outlook for various financial markets including stocks, crude oil, gold, and the US Dollar index based on technical indicators. It notes bullish patterns forming in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes and predicts potential short-term rallies. It also comments on recent moves higher in crude oil prices which it attributes partly to US dollar weakness. The analysis finds gold and the US dollar in sideways trading ranges for the near future. It closes with standard risk disclosure language.
The document provides an overview and analysis of various financial markets including stocks, commodities, currencies, and precious metals from March 15, 2015. It notes recent declines in stocks while small-cap stocks and the Russell 2000 have remained stronger. Commodities like oil declined further while gold and currencies like the US dollar increased. Overall the markets seem overextended on the upside or downside depending on the asset, and volatility is expected around upcoming futures and options expirations.
“Sell in May and go away!” Well maybe, our suggestion is to use trailing stops or hard stops on your positions. We suggest that approach because the truth is that we do not know when the correction or plunge will occur, we only know that it will occur. Remember bull markets can last longer that you might ever have believed. The US market is a bit long in the tooth as a bull market and lasting advances might be harder to achieve thus we advise caution. We are not telling you to sell just to make sure that any long positions have stops in place. The rally that began in March of 2009 has proceeded higher with nothing more than a couple of hiccups along the way. The rally has been strong and predictable. The longer a trend lasts the stronger the reversal will be so with that in mind, don’t try to predict the end of the bull just keep your protection in place.
This shortened week has been very exciting for the bulls with three of the four days bragging of robust rallies. Even the retreat in the shortened Christmas Eve session was positive for the market insomuch as not much ground was lost.
The document provides an analysis and outlook for various financial markets including stocks, crude oil, gold, and the US Dollar index based on technical indicators. It notes bullish patterns forming in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes and predicts potential short-term rallies. It also comments on recent moves higher in crude oil prices which it attributes partly to US dollar weakness. The analysis finds gold and the US dollar in sideways trading ranges for the near future. It closes with standard risk disclosure language.
The document provides an overview and analysis of various financial markets including stocks, commodities, currencies, and precious metals from March 15, 2015. It notes recent declines in stocks while small-cap stocks and the Russell 2000 have remained stronger. Commodities like oil declined further while gold and currencies like the US dollar increased. Overall the markets seem overextended on the upside or downside depending on the asset, and volatility is expected around upcoming futures and options expirations.
“Sell in May and go away!” Well maybe, our suggestion is to use trailing stops or hard stops on your positions. We suggest that approach because the truth is that we do not know when the correction or plunge will occur, we only know that it will occur. Remember bull markets can last longer that you might ever have believed. The US market is a bit long in the tooth as a bull market and lasting advances might be harder to achieve thus we advise caution. We are not telling you to sell just to make sure that any long positions have stops in place. The rally that began in March of 2009 has proceeded higher with nothing more than a couple of hiccups along the way. The rally has been strong and predictable. The longer a trend lasts the stronger the reversal will be so with that in mind, don’t try to predict the end of the bull just keep your protection in place.
Are we all ready for the "Year of the Monkey?" It has been interesting! We see some trading opportunities but remember to just visit the trade and not marry it!
- The ECB has begun quantitative easing which will depress the euro relative to the US dollar. This will make US exports more expensive abroad while increasing imports to the US. It could lead to layoffs in US industries like oil as demand declines for domestic goods.
- The authors believe the FOMC will not raise rates this year due to a weak economy and job growth. Higher rates could appreciate the dollar further and negatively impact US exports and multinational corporate earnings.
- Most stock indices declined slightly on Friday but indicators are pointing lower. Crude oil continued declining on oversupply concerns while the strong dollar pushed gold lower intraday. The US dollar index reached new highs not seen since 2003.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
Surprise! Freight rail traffic is down 16.1% for the month of April. In case you believe that this
is a fluke number, it is not. The freight rail traffic has been down every month since November.
Okay so not everything was down, vehicle part were up as well as coke and chemicals.
Petroleum products were down 25.1% and even grain mill products, grains, and pulp and paper
were down. Coal, is a disaster, down big every month.
Mr Market wants to go higher but it needs to settle back and absorb some of its recent gains. Crude oil and gold look awful, while the US Dollar Index is on its way to a "moon shot."
We are entering a very strange economic condition where most of the central banks in the globe,
except the US of course, are making extreme efforts to deflate their currencies and increase
liquidity in their markets by printing money
- The document is a weekly market summary and outlook letter from an options trading advisory service.
- It provides analysis of recent price action and technical indicators for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar, crude oil, and gold markets.
- The letter expects markets to see increased volatility over the coming week due to the Brexit vote on Thursday, with reactions on both Thursday and Friday depending on the outcome.
This document provides commentary and analysis on various financial markets and indexes from July 31, 2016. It includes quotes from The Wonderful Wizard of Oz relevant to the upcoming US presidential election. Market summaries are given for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, gold, and currencies like the British Pound in the context of Brexit. Charts and technical indicators are referenced to describe recent trends and levels of support and resistance. Potential risks for traders are also noted.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
Looks like Santa has left crude oil a lump of coal. The markets are deep into tax selling season here in the USA. The S&P 500 with 9% oil declined in Friday session.
The market continues is trek higher even with, a not so stellar, “jobs report.” There is too much sideline money waiting for a pull backs to jump on board, therefore any retreat will likely be
shallow. One of these days, the bounce will die like a beach ball that has been deflated. Until that time, up up and away we go. The S&P 500 looks as though it is forming a rounding top which could either launch a retreat or become a spring board for the next assault to the upper stratosphere. So far, we have been correct in keeping our stops tight and behaving defensively. The world is chaotic with hot spots all over. There will come a time when one of these hot spots will become an erupting volcano. The good news is that here in the USA we are not involved on our own soil.
The sentiment levels show that there are lots of bulls waiting for a correction and lots of bulls
still out there. Meanwhile the bears have dwindled to a few scared animals. This week we have
the Scottish vote for independence on Thursday. While it really doesn’t impact the US markets
it will have a huge effect on the UK banks and debt market. After all if Scotland can declare
independence why not other locals such as areas of Spain and Italy….Catalonia anybody?
Option Queen Newsletter July 20, 2014 with chartsScutify
- Old vintage clothing and selling homes as a "for sale by owner" are ways for people to make extra cash when money gets tight. Listing a home as FSBO can save the 6% realtor commission, and MLS services allow FSBO listings for about $295. Basic photography for online listings costs $100-350.
- The stock markets were up last week despite global chaos, as the conflicts have not impacted the US economy. Interest rates remain low, benefiting the stock market, though rates will likely rise eventually.
- Most market indexes rallied or traded range-bound last week. Indicators show mixed signals across indexes, with some pointing higher and others lower or neutral. The document analy
This past week the US markets rallied in the Monday session, retreated in the Tuesday and Wednesday sessions, rallied in Thursday session and then on Friday the "Jobs Report" was release in the morning and the market gave back all the weeks gains on Good Friday. What is going to happen on Monday? How will this effect the US Dollar, crude oil and gold?
Are we all ready for the "Year of the Monkey?" It has been interesting! We see some trading opportunities but remember to just visit the trade and not marry it!
- The ECB has begun quantitative easing which will depress the euro relative to the US dollar. This will make US exports more expensive abroad while increasing imports to the US. It could lead to layoffs in US industries like oil as demand declines for domestic goods.
- The authors believe the FOMC will not raise rates this year due to a weak economy and job growth. Higher rates could appreciate the dollar further and negatively impact US exports and multinational corporate earnings.
- Most stock indices declined slightly on Friday but indicators are pointing lower. Crude oil continued declining on oversupply concerns while the strong dollar pushed gold lower intraday. The US dollar index reached new highs not seen since 2003.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
Although the Chinese markets, Saudi turmoil and North Korean nuclear test have been given credit for last week's market retreat, there are other factors that are being ignored. We have been warning that a strong US Dollar will have a deflationary effect on the US economy and somewhat negative effects on the middle income earners, companies that depend on exports and corporations that need to borrow money.
Surprise! Freight rail traffic is down 16.1% for the month of April. In case you believe that this
is a fluke number, it is not. The freight rail traffic has been down every month since November.
Okay so not everything was down, vehicle part were up as well as coke and chemicals.
Petroleum products were down 25.1% and even grain mill products, grains, and pulp and paper
were down. Coal, is a disaster, down big every month.
Mr Market wants to go higher but it needs to settle back and absorb some of its recent gains. Crude oil and gold look awful, while the US Dollar Index is on its way to a "moon shot."
We are entering a very strange economic condition where most of the central banks in the globe,
except the US of course, are making extreme efforts to deflate their currencies and increase
liquidity in their markets by printing money
- The document is a weekly market summary and outlook letter from an options trading advisory service.
- It provides analysis of recent price action and technical indicators for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar, crude oil, and gold markets.
- The letter expects markets to see increased volatility over the coming week due to the Brexit vote on Thursday, with reactions on both Thursday and Friday depending on the outcome.
This document provides commentary and analysis on various financial markets and indexes from July 31, 2016. It includes quotes from The Wonderful Wizard of Oz relevant to the upcoming US presidential election. Market summaries are given for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, gold, and currencies like the British Pound in the context of Brexit. Charts and technical indicators are referenced to describe recent trends and levels of support and resistance. Potential risks for traders are also noted.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
Looks like Santa has left crude oil a lump of coal. The markets are deep into tax selling season here in the USA. The S&P 500 with 9% oil declined in Friday session.
The market continues is trek higher even with, a not so stellar, “jobs report.” There is too much sideline money waiting for a pull backs to jump on board, therefore any retreat will likely be
shallow. One of these days, the bounce will die like a beach ball that has been deflated. Until that time, up up and away we go. The S&P 500 looks as though it is forming a rounding top which could either launch a retreat or become a spring board for the next assault to the upper stratosphere. So far, we have been correct in keeping our stops tight and behaving defensively. The world is chaotic with hot spots all over. There will come a time when one of these hot spots will become an erupting volcano. The good news is that here in the USA we are not involved on our own soil.
The sentiment levels show that there are lots of bulls waiting for a correction and lots of bulls
still out there. Meanwhile the bears have dwindled to a few scared animals. This week we have
the Scottish vote for independence on Thursday. While it really doesn’t impact the US markets
it will have a huge effect on the UK banks and debt market. After all if Scotland can declare
independence why not other locals such as areas of Spain and Italy….Catalonia anybody?
Option Queen Newsletter July 20, 2014 with chartsScutify
- Old vintage clothing and selling homes as a "for sale by owner" are ways for people to make extra cash when money gets tight. Listing a home as FSBO can save the 6% realtor commission, and MLS services allow FSBO listings for about $295. Basic photography for online listings costs $100-350.
- The stock markets were up last week despite global chaos, as the conflicts have not impacted the US economy. Interest rates remain low, benefiting the stock market, though rates will likely rise eventually.
- Most market indexes rallied or traded range-bound last week. Indicators show mixed signals across indexes, with some pointing higher and others lower or neutral. The document analy
This past week the US markets rallied in the Monday session, retreated in the Tuesday and Wednesday sessions, rallied in Thursday session and then on Friday the "Jobs Report" was release in the morning and the market gave back all the weeks gains on Good Friday. What is going to happen on Monday? How will this effect the US Dollar, crude oil and gold?
We are getting fairly close to a short-term top. There are too many analysts looking for a correction. Stay long keep your stops tight and if elected keep the proceeds in cash.
This is a short week for the US markets. Thursday is Thanksgiving and Friday, well you are supposed to shop until you drop so the US markets close early to help you achieve that goal. Gold anybody? Russia has been acquiring lots of gold. Are they really that smart or is this in their grand plan? Swiss are voting on repatriating their gold and pegging it to their currency.
- The document discusses the impact of lower oil prices on consumer spending and the US economy, noting that lower gas prices act as a tax break that will likely boost consumer spending, especially during the holiday season.
- It also discusses recent gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes, noting that indicators are overbought but the upward trend may continue. Volume has been average.
- Gold prices are discussed as well, noting the chart looks "truly awful" and further declines are possible based on technical indicators.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent market movements in response to the Swiss National Bank allowing the Swiss franc to float freely. It discusses the rally in the franc and fallout for some firms. It also analyzes price movements and indicators for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, crude oil, gold, and US Dollar Index from the prior week. Recommendations are given to remain alert and watch for effects of Swiss franc funds moving into US and European markets.
Gold is the rally for real? Crude oil how low can it go? The S&P 500 looks like a roller coaster ride. What to do next? Get one professional's opinion!
The document discusses recent changes by the SEC that will allow money market funds to let their share prices float below $1 and to block withdrawals during times of crisis. It also summarizes market performance for stocks, gold, oil and the US dollar for the week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell while gold rose. Crude oil closed near recent levels and the US dollar index strengthened significantly.
Americans feel financially strained due to stagnant wages and rising costs of living over the past 40 years. While automation has eliminated some jobs, a larger issue is a skills gap as the culture pushes more people into white-collar jobs instead of trades with strong demand. Technology will likely continue disrupting jobs but widespread social problems from unemployment are decades away.
The document provides a weekly market summary and outlook for various indexes and commodities. It notes that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 ended the week lower after reaching new highs earlier. The Russell 2000 and crude oil performed poorly, with indicators pointing lower. Gold also looks weak with support at $1182. The US dollar index remains strong with indicators pointing higher still. In closing, the author advises caution given mixed signals in markets and recommends tight stops if positions are held.
Lots of strange things happening this past week. Did the market turn the corner or was this just a one-day-wonder bounce. The US Dollar and crude oil have disconnect, well for now. Read more to solve these mysteries.
The document provides commentary on various financial markets and economic indicators. It discusses:
1. Employer tactics like making all employees part-time or using automation to avoid paying $15 minimum wage and benefits.
2. The impact of a strong US dollar on multinational company earnings and exports. The dollar is at a support level and could impact future earnings if it gains strength.
3. Commentary on movements in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, US Dollar Index, crude oil, and gold. Technical indicators are discussed for each market.
- The S&P 500 hit a resistance level twice last week according to a horizontal line drawn based on past behavior, but volume is declining in the recent four-day rally, which is typical of the wishy-washy market.
- Earnings season has had some positive and negative surprises, and mergers are beginning to appear as companies take advantage of cheap borrowing costs.
- Most indexes gained on Friday but volume was low on some new highs, a sign the market may need rest before further gains, though indicators still point higher overall. Gold and oil retreated as the dollar rallied.
he world is changing and we have to learn to adjust to new technologies. The markets have been viewed as volatile.....where were you during the highly volatile tech rally at the turn of the century. Let us remind you that during those years,trading haults were triggered frequently. Today, we have nothing like that to deal with. Hummm guess volatile is a relative term.
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October 19, 2014 with charts
1. Jeanette Schwarz Young, CFP®, CMT, M.S.
Jordan Young, CMT
83 Highwood Terrace
Weehawken, New Jersey 07086
www.OptnQueen.com
October 19, 2014
The Option Queen Letter
By the Option Royals
Fed Chairman Yellen finally verbalizes what we the people have known for quite a while, that the gulf between the rich and the average worker is growing. She said: “By some estimates, income and wealth inequality are near their highest levels in the past hundred years.” Federal Reserve stimulation has helped the rich, ultra-rich, banks and corporations but has done little to help the average work survive. As a matter of fact, the average worker today has less discretionary income than was available to that worker in 1970. Wonder why the economy isn’t growing faster? What Chairman Yellen doesn’t say is how the actions of the Federal Reserve will help the average worker.
Again we will suggest that tinkering with the normal business cycle may help in a finical crisis, but tinkering should be short-lived and allow the system to repair itself. If that means that institutions fail, so be it. Financial institutions that are too big to fail are far more harmful to the general public then monopolistic telephone service providers. Who is there to help the average man out of bankruptcy? Nobody! It is quite normal for booms and busts in a business cycle. Because the Federal Reserve has meddled with the normal cycles we are feeling the results that tinkering with great divides between the wealthy and the average workers. The poor are better off today than before and there are many more in the ranks than ever before in our history. Government hand-outs are growing and the tax base is becoming narrower. The ultra-rich will leave our shores and divert their income off-shore. Who will pay the taxes? Who will fund the masses that live on government and state assistance?
So why isn’t OPEC alarmed at the decline in the price of oil? Could it be the production of oil from shale here in the USA and Canada will be impacted and become too expensive to use? You bet it could be. At the current price of crude oil there is little reason to expand shale oil extraction. It is too expensive to extract. Now you know why OPEC isn’t upset by the retreat in crude oil’s price. They are of the belief that at the present price of crude oil that shale oil extraction will not expand and might even shut down. This will support their incomes and export of crude oil. It is interesting to watch the games that are played.
So, what happened this past week? Yes it was the anniversary of the 1987 crash and just to make sure that we remembered the market retreated. By the end of the week, the shorts began to cover which spurred on a lively rally ending this options expiration week on a much more comfortable note. We also believe that the shorts covered and wanted to enter the weekend flat rather than short or long. Is this the end of the down-draft? Maybe yes but probably not. The S&P 500 closed below the 100 day exponential moving average, not a good thing. The Russell 2000 out- performed the other indices on the upside because this index is loaded with stocks that will not
2. feel the impact of a strong dollar and likely don’t rely on exports. The S&P 500 on the other hand, is loaded with stocks that rely a great deal on exports…make sense to you? It does to us.
The strong US Dollar hurts the US’s ability to compete with foreign products. In a way, it can cause deflation insomuch as it depresses the cost of materials priced in US Dollars. Because the US average consumer has little or no discretionary income, they are not spending on imports; this hurts the Eurozone and others. The Eurozone is feeling the pressure of no growth thus they are not expanding or spending. If the Eurozone is failing, we here in the USA will feel that pinch. We do not live in isolation and their bad economy will affect our economy. Yes we are the best of the bad but the key word is bad. Deflation is not something anybody should wish for. It can be devastating and difficult to treat, as the Japanese have shown us over the past quarter of a century.
The S&P 500 enjoyed a two-day rally closing the week on a positive note for the day. For the week, the market closed down making it the fourth down week. Don’t be surprised to see that, it is common to have a market go in one direction for six to eight weeks at a time. All the indicators that we follow herein are positive and have plenty of room to the upside. The 5-period exponential moving average is 1873.81. We have a downside target of 1803.25 which we believe will be undercut giving the index a good opportunity to rally from that point. The top of the Bollinger Band is 2020.38 and the lower edge is seen at 1841.98. The Market Profile chart had a large area of single and double prints below the close of this market. This tells us that we may go back to that area and fill in that area. The profile seen is a bi-modal curve. The bulk of the trades for the Friday session were at 1880.20 where 12.1% of the day’s volume occurred. The most frequently traded number by brackets was seen at 1873.40 where 9.8% of the volume was seen. The daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of 1530.57. The 0.1% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of 1830.32. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame and above the clouds for both the weekly and monthly time-frames. We have broken the uptrend line on both the daily and the weekly charts. We are above the 200 day exponential moving average but below the 100 day exponential moving
6. The NASDAQ 100 rallied in the Friday session closing up 1.65% or 61.75 points on decent volume. All the indicators that we follow herein are issuing a buy-signal with plenty of room to the upside. The 5-period exponential moving average is 3801.52. The top of the Bollinger Band is 4162.31 and the lower edge is seen at 3733.11. We are above the 100 day exponential moving
7. average. The down-draft in the NASDAQ 100 did not feel as awful as did the down-draft in the S&P 500 because this index never closed below the 100 exponential moving average, while the S&P remains below the 100 day exponential moving average. The 30 minute Market profile chart is a bi-modal curve. 3808 represents 11.5% of the day’s volume while the most frequently traded number, bracket wise, was 3804.50, 3797.50 and 3794. The daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of 3041.08. The 0.1% by 3-box 60 minute point and figure chart has a downside target of 3702.98. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time- frame but are below the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frames. We see negative indicator readings on both the weekly and the monthly charts. The downdraft has been too steep to maintain at this acceleration and clearly needs time to adjust. We do believe that we likely will rally but that rally does not indicate to us that the down-side is over. There was a lot of damage done to the chart and at the very least some consolidation will be necessary. We remain cautious and recommend that tight stops be maintained. On the other hand some issues have become cheap enough to tweak our interest.
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10. The Russell 2000 retreated in the Friday session losing 3.70 handles or points on the day. This index has been the beneficiary of money flowing into it rather than into the S&P 500. Some of this can be attributed to the belief that a strong US Dollar will not hurt the stocks that compose this index. On Friday as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 rose, this index retreated. Only the RSI has issued a sell-signal, both the stochastic indicator and our own indicator continue to point higher although the stochastic indicator is curling to the downside. This index closed above its 100 day exponential moving average. The 5-period exponential moving average is 1072.88. The top of the Bollinger Band is 1150.02 and the lower edge is seen at 1085.47. The Bollinger Bands are again beginning to compress. The high volume area for the Friday session was 1087.50 where 12.6% of the day’s volume was seen. The most frequently traded number was 1086. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame, in the clouds for the weekly time-frame and above the clouds for the monthly time-frame. Keep your stops tight and no napping when trading this index.
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12. Crude oil retreated in the Friday session and looks a lot like the chart of the S&P 500 with a waterfall retreat and some stabilization in the Thursday and Friday sessions. So, what’s next? Well, clearly 80 didn’t hold in the Thursday session. We really were not surprised to see the market undercut the 80 level and trading down to 79.78 was expected. Here is the problem. Should the support fail to come in and hold up this market, we do have a liability to 74.95, again
13. which likely will be undercut as MIT(market if touched) orders are elected. This market is so far below its 100 day exponential moving average it funny. The 5-period exponential moving average is 83.28. The top of the expanding Bollinger Band is 96.63 and the lower edge is seen at 80.36. The only good thing we can see on this chart is that the volume fell off a cliff in the Friday session. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The stochastic indicator
Continues to look positive although it is flattening out a bit, our own indicator is issuing a buy- signal and the RSI is flat. The 60 minute 0.2% by 3-box point and figure chart has a downside target of 79.97 which has been achieved. There are internal uptrend and downtrend lines on this chart and the chart looks as though the price is consolidating. The daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart is negative with a downside target of 78.9. We look as though we are consolidating but there is an overhead downtrend line that appears miles away. 30% of the Friday volume was seen at 82.25 and that was the most frequently traded number, by bracket, for the day. The downward trending channel lines are 86.00 and 78.93. We remain concerned about crude oil and believe that because the 75ish number is there, that the market could undercut that number just to probe for any stops. It is difficult to catch a falling knife, so, we don’t and recommend that sometimes watching is better than trading.
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18. Gold seems to be holding its own although it retreated in the last two sessions. The indicators are mixed. The 5-period exponential moving average is 1235.00. The top of the Bollinger Band is 1244.26 and the lower edge is seen at 1195.83. The upward trending channel lines are 1255.88 and 1232.60. The long term downtrend line is 1263.62. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The Friday session left a doji candlestick on the chart. This is generally a sign of transition. The market has rallied for the last two weeks but before you become a gold bull, there is an important downtrend line on the weekly chart at 1304 plus or minus two points. Those who are short this product, will not worry until or unless that downtrend line is removed. The 60 minute 0.2% by 3-box point and figure chart looks positive. The daily 1% by 3-box point and figure chart looks as though this market consolidating. The 30 minute Market Profile chart shows us that the most frequently traded number is 1238.50. This number is the same level for the most frequently traded number in the Thursday session as well. We conclude that this number must be important and is considered fair value by the marketeers.
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22. It’s lonely at the top and we think the US Dollar Index can’t handle the pressure. After an incredible 4-month rally, we think it’s the US Dollar index may be looking to retrace. The index
23. closed the Friday session at 85.22 having retreated with the general market during the week. The Bollinger Bands are contracting; the lower band is 84.60 and the upper band is 86.38. The 20- period simple moving average is 85.47, the 5 period exponential moving average is 85.22 and the index is below both. The RSI is in a down trend though starting to turn up and our own indicator is continuing to issue a sell signal. Support can be seen on the daily chart at 84.32. The weekly chart shows a number of week support lines on the downside. Beyond 84.32, 84.10 follows. Ultimately, we could see a pullback to 82.75-83. The 30 minute .05 x 3 point and figure chart supports our near term view. Although the index is still in a long term uptrend, an internal down trend line has formed and we have multiple activated downside targets at 84.55, 84, 83.95 and 83.30. This is the technical story we are looking at. How will Ebola affect the US Dollar? Yes it is chaos but it is our chaos, wouldn’t that hurt the dollar? What do you think?
24. Risk Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions
25. involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.