This document discusses 10 key external factors that will shape the future of academic libraries: 1) Covid and future pandemics, 2) climate change, 3) funding of higher education, 4) inflation and interest rates, 5) demographic changes leading to increased student populations, 6) diversification of student bodies, 7) the student mental health crisis, 8) changing patterns of academic engagement, 9) increased public scrutiny, and 10) advances in artificial intelligence. These factors come from a mix of political, economic, social and technological influences that will create an uncertain or "VUCA" environment for universities and libraries. The interplay between these contradictory forces will require strategic responses from academic libraries.

1. Key External Influences
Shaping the Future for
Academic Libraries
John Cox
University Librarian
National University of Ireland Galway

2. Mind the Gap!
“discussion of the future of academic libraries….
often proceeds without reference to the
universities of which libraries are a part”
…and higher education is itself subject to many
external influences
(Lorcan Dempsey and Constance Malpas (2018) Academic Library Futures in a
Diversified University System. In N. W. Gleason (Ed.). Higher education in the
era of the fourth industrial revolution (pp. 65–89). Singapore: Palgrave
Macmillan https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0194-0_4)

3. Some Previous External Influences on
Higher Education and Academic Libraries
Type Impact
Political Irish Universities Act 1997: governance changes
Economic 2008 recession: less State funding
Social Wider participation: increased student population
Technological Mobile devices: online learning (and distraction…)

4. Uncertainty,
Multiple
Influences,
back in 2017
Pinfield, S., Cox, A. M., & Rutter, S. (2017). Mapping the future of academic libraries: A report
for SCONUL. London: SCONUL, page 15. https://tinyurl.com/yc7ybczx

5. 10 External Factors Shaping
Academic Library Futures
1. Covid
2. Climate Change
• Both well covered already in this session, so 8 more to go

6. External Factor #3: Funding of Higher Education
• Will Government policy restore competitiveness?
• Implications may include:
• access to more funding in targeted areas
• higher affordability and student numbers
• greater attractiveness to international students
• stronger research competitiveness
• redressing of long-term deficits

7. External Factor #4: Inflation and Interest Rates
• Will we see sustained price rises and borrowing costs, on top of the 2008
recession and Covid?
• Potential for:
• Reduced spending power
• Staffing losses, stagnation
• Scaled-back building projects
• Further contraction of collection growth
• Additional impetus towards open access, open textbooks

8. External Factor #5: Demographic Bulge
• Will Irish HEIs cope with continued rapid student population rises to 2030?
• 38,000-58,000 more students expected, 2014-2029
• Cumulative impact of earlier rise of over 50% in participation since 2000
• More lifelong learners, up from 6.5% to 10.7% of student population
• International students intended to rise to 15% of student population
• Higher class sizes
• Increased pressure on facilities, services, learning materials

9. External Factor #6: Diversification of Student Body
• What will an increasingly diverse student body expect?
• An increasingly diverse staff
• Multiple perspectives in collections, information literacy
• Varied and inclusive spaces
• Flexibility, eg micro-credentials

10. External Factor #7: Student Mental Health Crisis
• Will HEIs be able to support increasing numbers of students
experiencing mental health difficulties?
• Retention challenges
• Academic performance
• On-campus focus
• Whole of campus approaches likely
• Library supports, eg
• In-person experience
• Sensory spaces
• Writing, maths, study skills etc
• Pet therapy

11. External Factor #8: Changing Academic Engagement
• Will academic staff (re-)engage fully with campus life?
• Competitive individualism
• Less collegiality
• Inattention due to other pressures
• Insecurity, casualisation
• Disconnection, drift from campus
• Loss of library connectivity

12. External Factor #9: Public Scrutiny
• Will public trust in higher education rise or fall?
• Public good emphasis, including open access
• Strengthening focus on EDI
• Research integrity under the spotlight
• Balance of in-person and online experience
• Focus on accountability, proving value for money
• Library value can be challenging to define

13. External Factor #10: Artificial Intelligence
• How will AI/Machine Learning impact what we do (or don’t do) and how?
• Advancing automation, eg cataloguing, semantic retrieval
• More data-driven decision making, intelligent buildings
• Data management and interoperability at new scale
• Job security, new skill needs
• Ethical concerns, eg bias, privacy

14. 10 External Factors Shaping Academic Library
Futures
1. Covid/Future Pandemics
2. Climate Change
3. Funding of Higher Education
4. Higher Inflation and Interest Rates
5. Demographic Bulge
6. Diversification of Student Body
7. Student Mental Health Crisis
8. Changing Academic Engagement
9. Public Scrutiny
10. Artificial Intelligence

15. Conclusion
• Mix and interplay of PEST influences
• Social factors prominent
• Sometimes contradictory forces
• In a word (or acronym): VUCA

16. References
• Cox, J. (2021) The higher education environment driving academic library strategy: a
political, economic, social and technological (PEST) analysis. Journal of Academic
Librarianship 47.
• Irish Universities Association (2018). Ireland’s Future Talent – A Charter for Irish
Universities.
• EDUCAUSE Horizon Reports.
• Times Higher Education.
• Fitzpatrick, K. (2019). Generous thinking: a radical approach to saving the university.
Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Cox, J. (2020). University challenge: why higher education faces some tough questions.
RTE Brainstorm.