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JLL - Tampa Bay 2018 Q2 Industrial Outlook
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JLL - Tampa Bay 2018 Q2 Industrial Outlook
1.
© 2018 Jones
Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q2 2018 Tampa Bay Industrial Insight The strong start to 2018 slowed a bit in the second quarter, yet market fundamentals continue to remain strong. Over 350,000 square feet of positive absorption nearly aligns year-to-date absorption with year-to-date deliveries, a phenomenon we have not witnessed over the past five years. In fact, the market is typically slow to build, as evident by the supply and demand chart showing annual net absorption outpacing deliveries by a significant amount each year. The better matchup this year has helped keep vacancy rates hovering just over 4.0 percent for the market, and could be the first indication that the ever shrinking availability of space could be relieved with new construction in the second half of 2018. Polk County was again the largest contributor to absorption for the quarter, with Medline Distribution and West Logistics move-ins at the newly delivered Medline Distribution Center in Auburndale as main drivers. Where the first quarter was made up of a fewer, large transactions, absorption for the second quarter was largely made up of small or moderate move-ins/outs. With over 3.0 million square feet of the currently under construction product scheduled to deliver before the end of the year, large transactions could again be the trend over the next six months. Outlook Another quarter of strong fundamentals lays a solid groundwork for the handful of speculative projects coming online. The landscape is still favorable to new, large blocks of space that are really only competing with other brand new product given the lack of availability in existing stock. While the current match up of absorption to the pace of deliveries could result in a stabilized vacancy rate by the end of the year, asking rates and absorption should continue to climb as new product continues to be leased. Fundamentals Forecast YTD net absorption 1,749,939 s.f. ▲ QTD net absorption 367,123 s.f. ▲ Under construction 4,353,388 s.f. ▲ Total vacancy 4.2% ▼ Average asking rent (NNN) $5.70 p.s.f. ▲ Tenant improvements Falling ▼ 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018 Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption Deliveries Vacancy rates steady with better match between absorption and deliveries 9.4% 7.9% 6.6% 5.7% 4.8% 4.2% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Total vacancy For more information, contact: Kyle Koller | Kyle.Koller@am.jll.com • Net absorption, while still positive this quarter, was about 1/5th of the activity we saw to start the year. • Vacancy rates could be starting to level off, as we see new deliveries keeping pace with annual absorption levels. • Asking rate increases slowed to just a 0.5 percent increase quarter over quarter, up 1.2 percent since the start of the year. $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Average asking rents ($/s.f.) W&D Manufacturing
2.
Tampa Bay Q2 2018 Industrial
Statistics Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Total vacancy (%) Total availability (%) Average total asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Quarterly completions (s.f.) YTD completions (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Tampa Bay Totals Warehouse & Distribution 151,659,310 624,685 2,115,116 1.4% 4.3% 10.0% $5.61 526,061 1,548,302 4,353,388 Manufacturing 53,810,073 -257,562 -365,177 -0.7% 4.2% 5.1% $6.18 30,200 30,200 0 Totals 205,469,383 367,123 1,749,939 0.9% 4.2% 8.7% $5.70 556,261 1,578,502 4,353,388 Submarkets North Pinellas Warehouse & Distribution 4,582,189 -40,060 -42,903 -0.9% 2.7% 4.0% $6.75 0 0 0 Manufacturing 2,018,122 -25,575 -25,575 -1.3% 2.4% 2.6% $5.75 0 0 0 Totals 6,600,311 -65,635 -68,478 -1.0% 2.7% 3.6% $6.53 0 0 0 Mid Pinellas Warehouse & Distribution 7,410,276 46,492 63,979 0.9% 1.8% 5.7% $6.36 126,000 158,000 10,450 Manufacturing 7,928,235 5,108 4,608 0.1% 5.6% 7.3% $6.37 0 0 0 Totals 15,338,511 51,600 68,587 0.4% 3.8% 6.5% $6.37 126,000 158,000 10,450 Gateway Warehouse & Distribution 9,917,207 113,856 -12,145 -0.1% 4.3% 8.7% $6.77 0 0 65,000 Manufacturing 7,977,817 -149,242 -216,765 -2.7% 7.6% 7.3% $6.08 0 0 0 Totals 17,895,024 -35,386 -228,910 -1.3% 5.7% 8.1% $6.48 0 0 65,000 South Pinellas Warehouse & Distribution 7,016,165 -174,418 -164,460 -2.3% 3.8% 6.7% $5.10 0 0 0 Manufacturing 3,046,789 -35,327 -32,296 -1.1% 3.8% 6.6% $6.12 0 0 0 Totals 10,062,954 -209,745 -196,756 -2.0% 3.8% 6.7% $5.41 0 0 0 Westshore/Airport Warehouse & Distribution 9,718,778 -50,445 -44,497 -0.5% 3.8% 6.3% $6.65 0 0 21,000 Manufacturing 2,824,723 7,394 41,724 1.5% 1.6% 3.0% $6.15 0 0 0 Totals 12,543,501 -43,051 -2,773 0.0% 3.3% 5.5% $6.59 0 0 21,000 East Side Warehouse & Distribution 49,768,236 -157,286 93,181 0.2% 6.3% 13.2% $5.54 340,061 472,102 1,892,704 Manufacturing 10,444,871 143,402 160,613 1.5% 1.9% 4.4% $5.26 0 0 0 Totals 60,213,107 -13,884 253,794 0.4% 5.5% 11.7% $5.52 340,061 472,102 1,892,704 Manatee/Sarasota County Warehouse & Distribution 22,991,507 38,858 104,676 0.5% 3.1% 5.6% $7.19 60,000 88,200 406,000 Manufacturing 8,486,933 -88,169 -153,997 -1.8% 4.0% 4.8% $7.80 0 0 0 Totals 31,478,440 -49,311 -49,321 -0.2% 3.3% 5.4% $7.34 60,000 88,200 406,000 East Polk Warehouse & Distribution 15,647,713 669,391 1,206,925 7.7% 5.0% 14.8% $4.71 0 830,000 207,676 Manufacturing 3,808,800 -173,633 -173,633 -4.6% 5.7% 3.7% $2.47 0 0 0 Totals 19,456,513 495,758 1,033,292 5.3% 5.1% 12.7% $4.58 0 830,000 207,676 West Polk Warehouse & Distribution 24,607,239 178,297 910,360 3.7% 2.2% 10.0% $5.04 0 0 1,750,558 Manufacturing 7,273,783 58,480 30,144 0.4% 3.1% 3.5% $6.99 30,200 30,200 0 Totals 31,881,022 236,777 940,504 3.0% 2.4% 8.5% $5.22 30,200 30,200 1,750,558 Kyle Koller | Senior Research Analyst 401 East Jackson, Suite 1500, Tampa Bay, FL 33602 | tel +1 813 387 1323 | kyle.koller@am.jll.com 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
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