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JLL Research
Cincinnati | Q4 2020
Industrial Outlook
An in-depth look at the Cincinnati industrial
market. Analysis includes leasing, sales,
construction and employment.
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Insight
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Construction activity continuing full steam ahead
as e-commerce demand remains high.
• Construction activity is continuing strong with over 5.5 million-
s.f. delivering in 2020.
• The Airport submarket continues to be the most favorable
submarket in Cincinnati leading in occupancy gains and active
construction.
• Average asking rents steadily climbed over the last several
years currently sitting at $4.29 p.s.f.
The Cincinnati industrial market continued to fare well in 2020,
despite the disruptions the pandemic caused in day to day business
operations. E-commerce, traditional retailers and 3PL companies
remain the biggest demand drivers within the market, keeping
leasing velocity steady throughout 2020. Transaction activity in Q4
took place largely in the Florence/Richwood and Tri County
submarkets, with the largest leases being US Nonwovens, Innomark
Communication and Allen Distribution all for nearly 200,000 s.f.
Occupancy gains for the year ended just over 1.5 million-s.f.,
anchored by Dollar General’s purchase of Core5 Industrial Partner’s
newly delivered warehouse and Amazon’s lease of Al Neyer’s
Erlanger Commerce Center. Together they added over 1.0 million s.f.
of new occupancy in Northern Kentucky.
Construction activity remains at an all-time high with over 5.0
million-s.f. delivering in 2020. Active projects remain concentrated in
the Airport, Florence/Richwood, and Tri County submarkets.
Because of the surge in speculative construction over the last several
years, vacancy has seen a slight uptick compared to historical levels
currently sitting at 7%. The largest projects delivered to date include
Al Neyer’s Aero Commerce Center, and Core5 Industrial Partner’s
75/71 Logistics Center.
Outlook
Heading into 2021, the outlook for the Cincinnati market is positive.
With a surplus of new construction, vacancy may continue to rise as
several projects deliver in the first quarter. But, with several larger
tenants in the market, transaction velocity should be strong into the
new year.
Fundamentals Forecast
YTD net absorption 1,562,168 s.f. ▲
Under construction 8,139,530 s.f. ▲
Total vacancy 7.0% ▲
Sublease vacancy 738,279 s.f. ▲
Direct asking rent $4.29 p.s.f. ▶
Sublease asking rent $3.54 p.s.f. ▶
Concessions Stable ▶
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total vacancy (%)
$0
$2
$4
$6
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Direct Sublease
The health, policy, economic and financial disruption stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic
continue to create a fluid and evolving environment for all real estate sectors. Uncertainty
remains around market performance and implications will differ by market and sector.
0
2
4
6
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
2020
Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption
Deliveries
millions
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Statistics
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Inventory (s.f.)
Quarterly total
net absorption
(s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (%
of stock)
Total vacancy
(%)
Total
availability
(%)
Average
total asking
rent ($
p.s.f.)
Quarterly
Completions
(s.f.)
YTD
Completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction (s.f.)
Cincinnati total
Warehouse & Distribution 188,977,621 154,105 1,924,717 1.0% 8.6% 10.0% $4.32 1,012,248 5,542,849 7,789,530
Manufacturing 69,614,007 108,291 -362,549 -0.5% 2.5% 3.7% $3.93 0 40,000 350,000
Overall Total 258,591,628 262,396 1,562,168 0.6% 7.0% 8.4% $4.29 1,012,248 5,582,849 8,139,530
Airport
Warehouse & Distribution 32,355,011 -263,623 475,713 1.5% 9.6% 15.8% $4.40 45,000 1,625,934 6,477,490
Manufacturing 2,194,532 0 115,000 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 34,549,543 -263,623 590,713 1.7% 9.0% 15.0% $4.40 45,000 1,625,934 6,477,490
Blue Ash
Warehouse & Distribution 8,162,292 31,616 -80,589 -1.0% 8.1% 10.1% $4.13 0 0 0
Manufacturing 2,524,938 38,350 38,350 1.5% 10.2% 10.2% $3.21 0 0 0
Overall Total 10,687,230 69,966 -42,239 -0.4% 8.6% 10.1% $3.89 0 0 0
Campbell County
Warehouse & Distribution 2,133,491 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Manufacturing 1,045,402 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 3,178,893 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Central/Midtown
Warehouse & Distribution 29,992,035 -134,914 344,246 1.1% 3.6% 3.0% $5.73 0 356,513 0
Manufacturing 14,811,484 6,285 -215,543 -1.5% 3.2% 3.8% $3.13 0 0 0
Overall Total 44,803,519 -128,629 128,703 0.3% 3.4% 3.3% $4.67 0 356,513 0
Covington
Warehouse & Distribution 3,302,132 5,600 79,468 2.4% 9.1% 9.1% $0.00 0 0 0
Manufacturing 779,862 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 4,081,994 5,600 79,468 1.9% 7.3% 7.3% $0.00 0 0 0
East
Warehouse & Distribution 6,593,689 146,241 140,489 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% $4.21 0 0 0
Manufacturing 5,517,999 0 -95,650 -1.7% 11.5% 16.1% $4.98 0 0 0
Overall Total 12,111,688 146,241 44,839 0.4% 6.8% 8.9% $4.80 0 0 0
Florence/Richwood
Warehouse & Distribution 16,850,352 531,650 585,587 3.5% 19.3% 20.1% $4.14 544,320 1,407,188 0
Manufacturing 7,867,930 63,656 -137,500 -1.7% 2.1% 6.7% $3.50 0 0 0
Overall Total 24,718,282 595,306 448,087 1.8% 13.8% 15.8% $4.11 544,320 1,407,188 0
Hamilton
Warehouse & Distribution 6,263,988 -29,600 -122,616 -2.0% 5.6% 6.0% $4.00 0 0 0
Manufacturing 1,566,976 0 0 0.0% 0.6% 6.8% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 7,830,964 -29,600 -122,616 -1.6% 4.6% 6.2% $4.00 0 0 0
I-71 Corridor
Warehouse & Distribution 4,785,098 36,215 -16,000 -0.3% 1.2% 4.6% $4.28 0 0 430,000
Manufacturing 5,235,416 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 10,020,514 36,215 -16,000 -0.2% 0.6% 2.3% $4.28 0 0 430,000
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Statistics
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Inventory (s.f.)
Quarterly total
net absorption
(s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (%
of stock)
Total vacancy
(%)
Total
availability
(%)
Average
total asking
rent ($
p.s.f.)
Quarterly
Completions
(s.f.)
YTD
Completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction (s.f.)
Cincinnati total
Warehouse & Distribution 188,977,621 154,105 1,924,717 1.0% 8.6% 10.0% $4.32 1,012,248 5,542,849 7,789,530
Manufacturing 69,614,007 108,291 -362,549 -0.5% 2.5% 3.7% $3.93 0 40,000 350,000
Overall Total 258,591,628 262,396 1,562,168 0.6% 7.0% 8.4% $4.29 1,012,248 5,582,849 8,139,530
Monroe/Middletown
Warehouse & Distribution 14,961,043 -24,000 186,996 1.3% 9.4% 7.8% $3.70 0 0 335,000
Manufacturing 7,575,128 0 24,000 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 22,536,171 -24,000 210,996 0.9% 6.3% 5.4% $3.70 0 0 335,000
Tri County
Warehouse & Distribution 51,461,183 -165,996 330,860 0.6% 11.1% 11.4% $4.32 422,928 2,153,214 547,040
Manufacturing 9,178,459 0 -70,000 -0.8% 1.2% 1.3% $6.00 0 0 350,000
Overall Total 60,639,642 -165,996 260,860 0.4% 9.6% 9.8% $4.32 422,928 2,153,214 897,040
Woodlawn/Evendale
Warehouse & Distribution 7,887,567 0 -37,049 -0.5% 3.1% 3.2% $6.82 0 0 0
Manufacturing 10,607,639 0 -21,206 -0.2% 0.8% 0.8% $3.95 0 40,000 0
Overall Total 18,495,206 0 -58,255 -0.3% 1.8% 1.8% $5.96 0 40,000 0
West
Warehouse & Distribution 4,229,740 20,916 37,612 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% $0.00 0 0 0
Manufacturing 708,242 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Overall Total 4,937,982 20,916 37,612 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% $0.00 0 0 0
Q4 2020
Modern Bulk
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
2014 2016 2018 2020
Absorption New supply
Inventory 57,658,045 s.f.
Vacancy 16.8%
Average asking rent (NNN) $4.22
YTD completions 3,966,548 s.f.
Under construction 3,636,280 s.f.
Percent preleased 12.0%
Tenant Address s.f.
Amazon 660 Erlanger Rd 575,000
DB Schenker 61 Logistics Blvd 264,601
Cintas 3577 Yankee Rd 254,300
Innomark 8531 Trade Center Dr 212,585
Allen Distribution 8778 Le Saint Dr 180,990
Supply and demand
Fundamentals
Asking rents and vacancy
Recent leasing
Modern bulk properties are defined as warehouses built since 1995, 28’ clear, ESFR, ≥150,000 s.f.
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Building s.f. $ p.s.f. Buyer
1370 Aviation Blvd 160,984 $99 Black Creek
950 Wenstrup Ln 630,368 $81 Dollar General
8779 Le Saint Dr 345,600 $71 Granite REIT
8754 Trade Port Rd 479,512 $70 Granite REIT
12121 Champion Way 336,847 $62 Exeter
Large blocks
Recent sales
Address Available s.f. Rent
4805 Aero Pkwy Now 1,070,234 $4.50
201 Richard Knock Way Now 896,896 $3.85
61 Logistics Blvd Now 832,857 $4.25
2497 Wright Blvd Q2 2021 817,200 TBD
3401 Salzman Rd Now 755,160 $3.60
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
2014 2016 2018 2020
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Rents Vacancy
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Construction
4
3
5
6
1
2
This map highlights a partial list of construction projects either planned, under construction, or recently completed.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
6
Bldg Name: Fairfield Commerce
Park Bldgs I&II
Square feet: 547,040
Tenant: TBD
Owner: Ambrose Property Group
Construction type: Speculative
Completed: Q2 2021
2
Bldg Name: Runway Logistics
Center Bldgs I & II
Square feet: 1,401,600
Tenant: TBD
Owner: Clarion Partners
Construction type: Speculative
Completed: Q2 2021
3
Bldg Name: C5 75/71 Northern
KY Logistics Center
Square feet: 772,000
Tenant: TBD
Owner: Core5 Industrial Partners
Construction type: Speculative
Est. completion: Q3 2021
4
Bldg Name: Kroger-Ocado
Square feet: 335,000
Tenant: Kroger, Ocado
Owner: The Kroger Co
Construction type: BTS
Est. completion: Q1 2021
5
Bldg Name: Standard Textile
Square feet: 585,800
Tenant: Standard Textile
Owner: Al Neyer
Construction type: BTS
Est. completion: Q1 2021
1
Bldg Name: Lakeland Logistics
Center
Square feet: 329,840
Tenant: TBD
Owner: IDI Logistics
Construction type: Speculative
Est. completion: Q1 2021
Speculative
Build-to-suit
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Sales
This dashboard analyzes all industrial sales ≥30,000 s.f over the last 12 months.
©.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
$399,723,764
54
$100
5.5%
96.9%
1.2%
5.25-5.75%
7.0-7.5%
Warehouse/Dist. sales
volume as % of total
Flex/R&D sales volume as %
of total
Cap rate range
Core Class A Ind.
Core Class A Flex
Average Class A price p.s.f.
At a glance
Total volume
Number of transactions
Average Class A cap rate
Sales activity by building type
6,783,321 s.f.
154,208 s.f.
31,625 s.f.
$387,326,167
$7,615,000 $4,782,597
0 s.f.
1,000,000 s.f.
2,000,000 s.f.
3,000,000 s.f.
4,000,000 s.f.
5,000,000 s.f.
6,000,000 s.f.
7,000,000 s.f.
8,000,000 s.f.
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
$450,000,000
Warehouse / Distribution Manufacturing Flex/R&D
Sum of Price ($) Sum of RBA (SF)
Sales volume $ by submarket Top sellers (s.f.)
Top buyers (s.f.)
12%
10%
9%
8%
8%
6%
5%
34%
Granite REIT
Brookfield Asset
Management
Dollar General
Lightstone Group
Hillwood
90 North Real Estate
Partners
7950 Dixie Highway
Inc.
Black Creek Group
Prologis
Other
12%
10%
9%
8%
8%
6%
4%
36%
Link Logistics Real
Estate
Cohen Asset
Management, Inc.
Core5 Industrial
Partners
Hubert Company
Citimark Management
Company Inc.
RER Financial Group LLC
Molto Properties
Industrial Property Trust
Union Township
Other
$164,507,251
$71,231,882
$53,848,240
$44,994,430
$32,791,961
$21,730,000
$4,000,000
$2,650,000
$1,775,000
$1,100,000
$1,095,000
Tri County
Florence/Richwood
Airport
BlueAsh
Central/Midtown
East
I-71 Corridor
Covington
Hamilton
Campbell County
Woodlawn/Evendale
Top sales transactions
Size (s.f.) $ p.s.f. Sale date
630,368 $82 Dec-20
697,500 $57 Feb-20
479,512 $70 Jun-20
103,500 $280 Dec-20
580,166 $42 Jun-20
Cohen Asset Management, Inc.
Link Logistics Real Estate
Neyer Properties
Hubert Company
$40,050,000
$33,650,000
$29,000,000
$24,600,000
3191 River Rd Exan Capital
9555 Dry Fork Rd Lightstone Group
8778 Le Saint Dr
Brookfield Asset
Management
8754 Trade Port Dr Granite REIT
950 Wenstrup Ln Dollar General Core5 Industrial Partners $51,631,882
Building address Buyer company Seller company Sales price $
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q4 2020
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
Leasing
This dashboard analyzes all leases over 10,000 s.f. signed in 2020.
©.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
At a glance
Total leases 87
Leasing activity by size QTD
Total s.f. leased 7,565,297
Total s.f. leased:
Warehouse/Distribution
7,553,885
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
500,000+ 250,000-499,999 100,000-249,999 50,000-99,999 10,000-49,999
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
Historical leasing activity
Avg. building
construction date
286,981
7,000,070
140,746
Avg. lease size (in s.f.)
Expansion in building
Renewal
New lease
Leasing activity by submarket QTD
Leasing activity
1995
Leasing activity (s.f.) by transaction type
86,957
36%
31%
11%
7%
6%
6%
Airport
Tri County
Florence/Richwood
Monroe/Middletown
Central/Midtown
Blue Ash
I-71 Corridor
East
Woodlawn/Evendale
Top leases
Size Building status Year built
589,200 Existing 2017
575,000 Existing 2019
438,638
Under
Construction
2021
325,000 Existing 1956
254,300 Existing 2019
252,000 Existing 1997
240,392 Existing 1967
Amazon
3577 Yankee Rd Monroe/Middletown
Standard Textile
New Lease
Central/Midtown
Commonwealth 500 Murray Rd
Crescent Park Corporation 5226 E Provident Dr Tri County
Cintas Corporation
New Lease
US Nonwovens Corporation 7625 Empire Dr Florence/Richwood New Lease
New Lease
Lease type
2365 Litton Ln Airport New Lease
2960 Riverview Dr Airport
Airport
660 Erlanger Rd New Lease
New Lease
Proximo Spririts
Tenant Address Submarket
Q4 2020
Employment
Cincinnati Industrial Outlook
6.7%
U.S. unemployment*
-6.1%
U.S. 12-month job growth
4.8%
Cincinnati unemployment
-4.8%
Cincinnati 12-month job growth
5.7%
Ohio unemployment
-6.0%
Ohio 12-month job growth
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Trade,Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing
Mining, Logging & Construction Other Services
Job growth by sector*
Historical employment
Job growth*
Employment by industry Industrial employment*
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
*Represents 12-month change in employment. All charts represent economic conditions through Novemberl 2020, which was the latest data available at the time of publishing this report.
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cincinnati U.S.
-12,500
-10,200
-6,200
-4,800
-3,900
-3,400
-800
0
0
0
-20,000 -10,000 0 10,000
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Professional & Business…
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Financial Activities
Other Services
Information
Mining, Logging & Construction
Manufacturing
Educational & Health Services
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Employment Unemployment
21%
16%
16%
11%
11%
10%
7%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Government
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Mining, Logging & Construction
Other Services
Information
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Andrew Batson
Vice President, Director of Research
+1 216 937 4374
andrew.batson@am.jll.com
About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that
specializes in real estate and investment management. Our
vision is to reimagine the world of real estate, creating
rewarding opportunities and amazing spaces where people
can achieve their ambitions. In doing so, we will build a better
tomorrow for our clients, our people and our communities.
JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $16.3
billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce
of more than 93,000 as of September 30, 2019. JLL is the brand
name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle
Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com.
About JLL Research
JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and
insight through market-leading reports and services that
illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and
identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our
more than 400 global research professionals track and
analyze economic and property trends and forecast
future conditions in over 60 countries, producing
unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and
expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative
thinking around the world, creates a competitive
advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies
and optimal real estate decisions.
Contact
Abby Armbruster
Senior Research Analyst
+1 513 252 2148
abby.armbruster@am.jll.com
© 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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JLL Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Q4 2020

  • 1. JLL Research Cincinnati | Q4 2020 Industrial Outlook An in-depth look at the Cincinnati industrial market. Analysis includes leasing, sales, construction and employment.
  • 2. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Insight © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Construction activity continuing full steam ahead as e-commerce demand remains high. • Construction activity is continuing strong with over 5.5 million- s.f. delivering in 2020. • The Airport submarket continues to be the most favorable submarket in Cincinnati leading in occupancy gains and active construction. • Average asking rents steadily climbed over the last several years currently sitting at $4.29 p.s.f. The Cincinnati industrial market continued to fare well in 2020, despite the disruptions the pandemic caused in day to day business operations. E-commerce, traditional retailers and 3PL companies remain the biggest demand drivers within the market, keeping leasing velocity steady throughout 2020. Transaction activity in Q4 took place largely in the Florence/Richwood and Tri County submarkets, with the largest leases being US Nonwovens, Innomark Communication and Allen Distribution all for nearly 200,000 s.f. Occupancy gains for the year ended just over 1.5 million-s.f., anchored by Dollar General’s purchase of Core5 Industrial Partner’s newly delivered warehouse and Amazon’s lease of Al Neyer’s Erlanger Commerce Center. Together they added over 1.0 million s.f. of new occupancy in Northern Kentucky. Construction activity remains at an all-time high with over 5.0 million-s.f. delivering in 2020. Active projects remain concentrated in the Airport, Florence/Richwood, and Tri County submarkets. Because of the surge in speculative construction over the last several years, vacancy has seen a slight uptick compared to historical levels currently sitting at 7%. The largest projects delivered to date include Al Neyer’s Aero Commerce Center, and Core5 Industrial Partner’s 75/71 Logistics Center. Outlook Heading into 2021, the outlook for the Cincinnati market is positive. With a surplus of new construction, vacancy may continue to rise as several projects deliver in the first quarter. But, with several larger tenants in the market, transaction velocity should be strong into the new year. Fundamentals Forecast YTD net absorption 1,562,168 s.f. ▲ Under construction 8,139,530 s.f. ▲ Total vacancy 7.0% ▲ Sublease vacancy 738,279 s.f. ▲ Direct asking rent $4.29 p.s.f. ▶ Sublease asking rent $3.54 p.s.f. ▶ Concessions Stable ▶ 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Total vacancy (%) $0 $2 $4 $6 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Direct Sublease The health, policy, economic and financial disruption stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic continue to create a fluid and evolving environment for all real estate sectors. Uncertainty remains around market performance and implications will differ by market and sector. 0 2 4 6 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 2020 Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption Deliveries millions
  • 3. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Statistics © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Total vacancy (%) Total availability (%) Average total asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Quarterly Completions (s.f.) YTD Completions (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Cincinnati total Warehouse & Distribution 188,977,621 154,105 1,924,717 1.0% 8.6% 10.0% $4.32 1,012,248 5,542,849 7,789,530 Manufacturing 69,614,007 108,291 -362,549 -0.5% 2.5% 3.7% $3.93 0 40,000 350,000 Overall Total 258,591,628 262,396 1,562,168 0.6% 7.0% 8.4% $4.29 1,012,248 5,582,849 8,139,530 Airport Warehouse & Distribution 32,355,011 -263,623 475,713 1.5% 9.6% 15.8% $4.40 45,000 1,625,934 6,477,490 Manufacturing 2,194,532 0 115,000 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 34,549,543 -263,623 590,713 1.7% 9.0% 15.0% $4.40 45,000 1,625,934 6,477,490 Blue Ash Warehouse & Distribution 8,162,292 31,616 -80,589 -1.0% 8.1% 10.1% $4.13 0 0 0 Manufacturing 2,524,938 38,350 38,350 1.5% 10.2% 10.2% $3.21 0 0 0 Overall Total 10,687,230 69,966 -42,239 -0.4% 8.6% 10.1% $3.89 0 0 0 Campbell County Warehouse & Distribution 2,133,491 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Manufacturing 1,045,402 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 3,178,893 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Central/Midtown Warehouse & Distribution 29,992,035 -134,914 344,246 1.1% 3.6% 3.0% $5.73 0 356,513 0 Manufacturing 14,811,484 6,285 -215,543 -1.5% 3.2% 3.8% $3.13 0 0 0 Overall Total 44,803,519 -128,629 128,703 0.3% 3.4% 3.3% $4.67 0 356,513 0 Covington Warehouse & Distribution 3,302,132 5,600 79,468 2.4% 9.1% 9.1% $0.00 0 0 0 Manufacturing 779,862 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 4,081,994 5,600 79,468 1.9% 7.3% 7.3% $0.00 0 0 0 East Warehouse & Distribution 6,593,689 146,241 140,489 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% $4.21 0 0 0 Manufacturing 5,517,999 0 -95,650 -1.7% 11.5% 16.1% $4.98 0 0 0 Overall Total 12,111,688 146,241 44,839 0.4% 6.8% 8.9% $4.80 0 0 0 Florence/Richwood Warehouse & Distribution 16,850,352 531,650 585,587 3.5% 19.3% 20.1% $4.14 544,320 1,407,188 0 Manufacturing 7,867,930 63,656 -137,500 -1.7% 2.1% 6.7% $3.50 0 0 0 Overall Total 24,718,282 595,306 448,087 1.8% 13.8% 15.8% $4.11 544,320 1,407,188 0 Hamilton Warehouse & Distribution 6,263,988 -29,600 -122,616 -2.0% 5.6% 6.0% $4.00 0 0 0 Manufacturing 1,566,976 0 0 0.0% 0.6% 6.8% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 7,830,964 -29,600 -122,616 -1.6% 4.6% 6.2% $4.00 0 0 0 I-71 Corridor Warehouse & Distribution 4,785,098 36,215 -16,000 -0.3% 1.2% 4.6% $4.28 0 0 430,000 Manufacturing 5,235,416 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 10,020,514 36,215 -16,000 -0.2% 0.6% 2.3% $4.28 0 0 430,000
  • 4. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Statistics © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Total vacancy (%) Total availability (%) Average total asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Quarterly Completions (s.f.) YTD Completions (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Cincinnati total Warehouse & Distribution 188,977,621 154,105 1,924,717 1.0% 8.6% 10.0% $4.32 1,012,248 5,542,849 7,789,530 Manufacturing 69,614,007 108,291 -362,549 -0.5% 2.5% 3.7% $3.93 0 40,000 350,000 Overall Total 258,591,628 262,396 1,562,168 0.6% 7.0% 8.4% $4.29 1,012,248 5,582,849 8,139,530 Monroe/Middletown Warehouse & Distribution 14,961,043 -24,000 186,996 1.3% 9.4% 7.8% $3.70 0 0 335,000 Manufacturing 7,575,128 0 24,000 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 22,536,171 -24,000 210,996 0.9% 6.3% 5.4% $3.70 0 0 335,000 Tri County Warehouse & Distribution 51,461,183 -165,996 330,860 0.6% 11.1% 11.4% $4.32 422,928 2,153,214 547,040 Manufacturing 9,178,459 0 -70,000 -0.8% 1.2% 1.3% $6.00 0 0 350,000 Overall Total 60,639,642 -165,996 260,860 0.4% 9.6% 9.8% $4.32 422,928 2,153,214 897,040 Woodlawn/Evendale Warehouse & Distribution 7,887,567 0 -37,049 -0.5% 3.1% 3.2% $6.82 0 0 0 Manufacturing 10,607,639 0 -21,206 -0.2% 0.8% 0.8% $3.95 0 40,000 0 Overall Total 18,495,206 0 -58,255 -0.3% 1.8% 1.8% $5.96 0 40,000 0 West Warehouse & Distribution 4,229,740 20,916 37,612 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% $0.00 0 0 0 Manufacturing 708,242 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0 Overall Total 4,937,982 20,916 37,612 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% $0.00 0 0 0
  • 5. Q4 2020 Modern Bulk Cincinnati Industrial Outlook 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 2014 2016 2018 2020 Absorption New supply Inventory 57,658,045 s.f. Vacancy 16.8% Average asking rent (NNN) $4.22 YTD completions 3,966,548 s.f. Under construction 3,636,280 s.f. Percent preleased 12.0% Tenant Address s.f. Amazon 660 Erlanger Rd 575,000 DB Schenker 61 Logistics Blvd 264,601 Cintas 3577 Yankee Rd 254,300 Innomark 8531 Trade Center Dr 212,585 Allen Distribution 8778 Le Saint Dr 180,990 Supply and demand Fundamentals Asking rents and vacancy Recent leasing Modern bulk properties are defined as warehouses built since 1995, 28’ clear, ESFR, ≥150,000 s.f. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Building s.f. $ p.s.f. Buyer 1370 Aviation Blvd 160,984 $99 Black Creek 950 Wenstrup Ln 630,368 $81 Dollar General 8779 Le Saint Dr 345,600 $71 Granite REIT 8754 Trade Port Rd 479,512 $70 Granite REIT 12121 Champion Way 336,847 $62 Exeter Large blocks Recent sales Address Available s.f. Rent 4805 Aero Pkwy Now 1,070,234 $4.50 201 Richard Knock Way Now 896,896 $3.85 61 Logistics Blvd Now 832,857 $4.25 2497 Wright Blvd Q2 2021 817,200 TBD 3401 Salzman Rd Now 755,160 $3.60 © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 2014 2016 2018 2020 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Rents Vacancy
  • 6. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Construction 4 3 5 6 1 2 This map highlights a partial list of construction projects either planned, under construction, or recently completed. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. 6 Bldg Name: Fairfield Commerce Park Bldgs I&II Square feet: 547,040 Tenant: TBD Owner: Ambrose Property Group Construction type: Speculative Completed: Q2 2021 2 Bldg Name: Runway Logistics Center Bldgs I & II Square feet: 1,401,600 Tenant: TBD Owner: Clarion Partners Construction type: Speculative Completed: Q2 2021 3 Bldg Name: C5 75/71 Northern KY Logistics Center Square feet: 772,000 Tenant: TBD Owner: Core5 Industrial Partners Construction type: Speculative Est. completion: Q3 2021 4 Bldg Name: Kroger-Ocado Square feet: 335,000 Tenant: Kroger, Ocado Owner: The Kroger Co Construction type: BTS Est. completion: Q1 2021 5 Bldg Name: Standard Textile Square feet: 585,800 Tenant: Standard Textile Owner: Al Neyer Construction type: BTS Est. completion: Q1 2021 1 Bldg Name: Lakeland Logistics Center Square feet: 329,840 Tenant: TBD Owner: IDI Logistics Construction type: Speculative Est. completion: Q1 2021 Speculative Build-to-suit
  • 7. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Sales This dashboard analyzes all industrial sales ≥30,000 s.f over the last 12 months. ©. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. $399,723,764 54 $100 5.5% 96.9% 1.2% 5.25-5.75% 7.0-7.5% Warehouse/Dist. sales volume as % of total Flex/R&D sales volume as % of total Cap rate range Core Class A Ind. Core Class A Flex Average Class A price p.s.f. At a glance Total volume Number of transactions Average Class A cap rate Sales activity by building type 6,783,321 s.f. 154,208 s.f. 31,625 s.f. $387,326,167 $7,615,000 $4,782,597 0 s.f. 1,000,000 s.f. 2,000,000 s.f. 3,000,000 s.f. 4,000,000 s.f. 5,000,000 s.f. 6,000,000 s.f. 7,000,000 s.f. 8,000,000 s.f. $0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000 $450,000,000 Warehouse / Distribution Manufacturing Flex/R&D Sum of Price ($) Sum of RBA (SF) Sales volume $ by submarket Top sellers (s.f.) Top buyers (s.f.) 12% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 5% 34% Granite REIT Brookfield Asset Management Dollar General Lightstone Group Hillwood 90 North Real Estate Partners 7950 Dixie Highway Inc. Black Creek Group Prologis Other 12% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 4% 36% Link Logistics Real Estate Cohen Asset Management, Inc. Core5 Industrial Partners Hubert Company Citimark Management Company Inc. RER Financial Group LLC Molto Properties Industrial Property Trust Union Township Other $164,507,251 $71,231,882 $53,848,240 $44,994,430 $32,791,961 $21,730,000 $4,000,000 $2,650,000 $1,775,000 $1,100,000 $1,095,000 Tri County Florence/Richwood Airport BlueAsh Central/Midtown East I-71 Corridor Covington Hamilton Campbell County Woodlawn/Evendale Top sales transactions Size (s.f.) $ p.s.f. Sale date 630,368 $82 Dec-20 697,500 $57 Feb-20 479,512 $70 Jun-20 103,500 $280 Dec-20 580,166 $42 Jun-20 Cohen Asset Management, Inc. Link Logistics Real Estate Neyer Properties Hubert Company $40,050,000 $33,650,000 $29,000,000 $24,600,000 3191 River Rd Exan Capital 9555 Dry Fork Rd Lightstone Group 8778 Le Saint Dr Brookfield Asset Management 8754 Trade Port Dr Granite REIT 950 Wenstrup Ln Dollar General Core5 Industrial Partners $51,631,882 Building address Buyer company Seller company Sales price $
  • 8. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q4 2020 Cincinnati Industrial Outlook Leasing This dashboard analyzes all leases over 10,000 s.f. signed in 2020. ©. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. At a glance Total leases 87 Leasing activity by size QTD Total s.f. leased 7,565,297 Total s.f. leased: Warehouse/Distribution 7,553,885 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 500,000+ 250,000-499,999 100,000-249,999 50,000-99,999 10,000-49,999 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Historical leasing activity Avg. building construction date 286,981 7,000,070 140,746 Avg. lease size (in s.f.) Expansion in building Renewal New lease Leasing activity by submarket QTD Leasing activity 1995 Leasing activity (s.f.) by transaction type 86,957 36% 31% 11% 7% 6% 6% Airport Tri County Florence/Richwood Monroe/Middletown Central/Midtown Blue Ash I-71 Corridor East Woodlawn/Evendale Top leases Size Building status Year built 589,200 Existing 2017 575,000 Existing 2019 438,638 Under Construction 2021 325,000 Existing 1956 254,300 Existing 2019 252,000 Existing 1997 240,392 Existing 1967 Amazon 3577 Yankee Rd Monroe/Middletown Standard Textile New Lease Central/Midtown Commonwealth 500 Murray Rd Crescent Park Corporation 5226 E Provident Dr Tri County Cintas Corporation New Lease US Nonwovens Corporation 7625 Empire Dr Florence/Richwood New Lease New Lease Lease type 2365 Litton Ln Airport New Lease 2960 Riverview Dr Airport Airport 660 Erlanger Rd New Lease New Lease Proximo Spririts Tenant Address Submarket
  • 9. Q4 2020 Employment Cincinnati Industrial Outlook 6.7% U.S. unemployment* -6.1% U.S. 12-month job growth 4.8% Cincinnati unemployment -4.8% Cincinnati 12-month job growth 5.7% Ohio unemployment -6.0% Ohio 12-month job growth -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Trade,Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing Mining, Logging & Construction Other Services Job growth by sector* Historical employment Job growth* Employment by industry Industrial employment* © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. *Represents 12-month change in employment. All charts represent economic conditions through Novemberl 2020, which was the latest data available at the time of publishing this report. © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cincinnati U.S. -12,500 -10,200 -6,200 -4,800 -3,900 -3,400 -800 0 0 0 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 Government Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business… Trade, Transportation & Utilities Financial Activities Other Services Information Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Educational & Health Services 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Employment Unemployment 21% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 7% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Government Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Financial Activities Mining, Logging & Construction Other Services Information
  • 10. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Andrew Batson Vice President, Director of Research +1 216 937 4374 andrew.batson@am.jll.com About JLL JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. Our vision is to reimagine the world of real estate, creating rewarding opportunities and amazing spaces where people can achieve their ambitions. In doing so, we will build a better tomorrow for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $16.3 billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 93,000 as of September 30, 2019. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com. About JLL Research JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our more than 400 global research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions. Contact Abby Armbruster Senior Research Analyst +1 513 252 2148 abby.armbruster@am.jll.com © 2020 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.