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Jared Duval Presentation for EAN 2020 Summit
- 4. Progress to Paris Percent decrease in overall GHG emissions (2016, compared to 2005 levels)
- 8. As cars get more efficient, we’re buying bigger cars
- 9. US VT ME CT NH MA NY RI QC Per capita emissions (metric tons CO2e per person)
- 12. 12
- 14. Path to Paris: 2.3 MMTCO2e reduction by 2025
- 15. Economic impacts of EAN’s Path to Paris: 2020 - 2035
- 16. Electric vehicles are less expensive to drive than gas vehicles Renewable heating options are lower cost and more stable than fossil fuel options
- 17. FOSSIL FUELS Recirculates in the VT economy Leaves the VT economy
- 20. Path to Paris: 2.3 MMTCO2e reduction by 2025
- 23. Path to Paris: 2.3 MMTCO2e reduction by 2025
- 24. Energy Equity: A Working Definition Energy equity is based on the principle that all people should have access to reliable, safe, and affordable sources of energy; protection from a disproportionate share of negative impacts or externalities associated with building and operating our energy supply and distribution systems; and equitable distribution of and access to benefits from these systems. 24
- 25. What is Energy Burden? 25 Energy Security and Justice Program of Vermont Law School’s Institute for Energy and the Environment. Energy costs and burdens in Vermont: Burdensome for whom? 2014. Energy burden measures the percent of income used for energy spending. This measurement allows us to acknowledge that energy spending does not affect everyone equally.
- 27. Energy Burden and Income 27 Lower-income Vermonters purchase much less energy than upper income Vermonters…
- 28. Energy Burden and Income 28 … but spend a far greater proportion of their income on energy than do upper income Vermonters
- 29. 29
- 30. Income-Based Thermal Fuel Use Inequities 30 Lower-income households use fuel oil and electricity disproportion- ately more frequently and natural gas and wood disproportion- ately less frequently than higher- income households.
- 31. Renting as a Barrier to Affordable Fuel 31 • Split incentives discourage energy upgrades in low-income households • Renters use wood disproportionately less than homeowners • Renters use electricity (resistance) disproportionately more than homeowners
- 32. Renting as a Barrier to Affordable Fuel 32 Tertile 1: Less than $39,560 Tertile 2: $39,560 to $85,000 Tertile 3: More than $85,000
- 33. Adding It All Up 33 Low-income households purchase the least amount of energy but have the highest energy burden and struggle the most with that energy burden. Low-income households don’t have the same access to heating options, placing already burdened households at the mercy of some of the highest cost and least efficient ways to heat their homes.
- 34. Download a copy: eanvt.org Request printed copies: cwesley@eanvt.org Questions: jduval@eanvt.org
Editor's Notes
- Hello everybody. My name is Jared Duval, Executive Director of the Energy Action Network.
- This report also includes a comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from every state in New England plus New York and our neighbor to the north, Quebec. What we found is that: Vermont is the only state in the region that has failed to reduce its emissions below 1990 levels. GRAPHIC: Historic VT GHG emissions (pg. 3)
- Vermont has made the least progress toward the Paris Climate Agreement commitment of any state in the region. GRAPHIC: comparing per capita emissions and Progress to Paris across the region, 2005 – 2016, bottom half (pg. 10)
- This report also includes a comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from every state in New England plus New York and our neighbor to the north, Quebec. What we found is that: Vermont is the only state in the region that has failed to reduce its emissions below 1990 levels. GRAPHIC: Historic VT GHG emissions (pg. 3)
- Why is Vermont falling behind our neighbors on our emissions reduction commitments and why do we have the highest emissions, per capita, in the region? One big reason is the increase in our transportation emissions since 1990. GRAPHIC: Moving in the wrong direction (pg. 9)
- There are more vehicle miles traveled in Vermont than any state in the region, and miles driven have been rising since 2014. GRAPHIC: Vehicle Miles Traveled per capita, 2015 (pg. 16)
- Additionally, we are not getting the full benefit of increased fuel economy standards because Vermonters who buy or lease new vehicles are opting for bigger and bigger vehicles. In 2012, 55% of new vehicles purchased in Vermont were SUV’s or pickup trucks. In 2018, that number was 80%. (GRAPHIC: As cars get more efficient, we’re buying bigger cars) (pg. 16). Add title As cars get more efficient…
- Vermont has the highest emissions, per capita, of any state in the region at over 15 tons of greenhouse gases per person. GRAPHIC: comparing per capita emissions and Progress to Paris across the region, 2005 – 2016, top half (pg. 10)
- And as of 2018 emissions from electricity were only 2% of Vermont’s total greenhouse gas emissions, while emissions from transportation and thermal energy use made up more than 70% of our emissions. GRAPHIC: Vermont’s GHG emissions by sector (pg. 7)
- And as of 2018 emissions from electricity were only 2% of Vermont’s total greenhouse gas emissions, while emissions from transportation and thermal energy use made up more than 70% of our emissions. GRAPHIC: Vermont’s GHG emissions by sector (pg. 7)
- First and most importantly: the transition off fossil fuels is an economic development and affordability strategy for Vermont. This topic is particularly important to me because, before I led EAN, I served as Economic Development Director at the Agency of Commerce and Community Development. The economic conversation about energy has for too long been backwards. Often the question will be asked, “how much will it cost us” to move from fossil fuel to efficient, renewable energy use. Our analysis shows that there are three key questions that we should be asking instead: #1: how much is our fossil fuel dependence currently costing Vermonters and the Vermont economy?; #2, how much do Vermonters stand to save on energy costs as a result of this transition?; and #3 how will the Vermont economy be affected by a transition off fossil fuels? To answer these questions, we asked the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development to conduct an economic impact analysis of EAN’s “Path to Paris” model. The Path to Paris model takes proven and available technologies and best practices as outlined in Vermont’s Comprehensive Energy Plan and models the scale and pace of efficient and renewable energy adoption, primarily in for how we get around and heat our homes and buildings, that will be necessary to meet Vermont’s commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement. GRAPHIC: Path to Paris (pg. 4)
- What ACCD found is that if we meet our Paris commitment in this way, it will keep more money in state and in your pocket. Specifically, we can reduce the net amount of dollars draining out of the Vermont economy by over $1.1 billion, increase net investment in in-state businesses by over $300 million, and save Vermont consumers about $800 million between 2020 and 2035. GRAPHIC: drain, arrow, stack of bills (pg. 5) This analysis, by ACCD’s own admission, is very conservative. For instance, it projects Electric Vehicle prices to stay at their current levels for the next five years, when we know that battery and EV prices are declining every year. It also does not include the value of state incentives in the consumer savings calculations, which can result in significant savings for Vermonters who do weatherization projects or install renewable heating systems like advanced wood heating or cold climate heat pumps. Finally, it does not account for further price decreases for clean technologies due to increasing economies of scale or further technological improvements, which we see every year. Let me state those numbers again: reducing the flow of dollars out of state by over 1.1 billion dollars, increasing investment in Vermont-based businesses by over $300 million, and achieving net consumer savings for Vermonters of about $800 million. The reasons for this very good economic news lies in two key differences between fossil fuels vs. more efficient, renewable energy alternatives.
- Reason #2: Fossil fuels are more expensive and have more volatile prices than electricity and renewable fuels. The lowest cost way to get around or to heat your home or building with the most stable and predictable prices is with electricity or wood heat. GRAPHIC: Gas and diesel vs. Electric prices (pg. 19); heating fuel price comparison (pg. 21); Gas vs. EV cost comparison (pg. 19)
- #1: Vermont averages about $2 billion a year in fossil fuel spending, three quarters of which, or $1.5 billion, drains right out of our state economy. All of the efficient and renewable alternatives keep much more of our energy dollars local: 60 cents of every dollar invested in weatherization, 62 cents of every dollar spent on electricity, and 80 cents of every dollar spent on wood stay local, support jobs for our neighbors, and strengthen the Vermont economy. GRAPHIC: Big state, with 75% drain (pg. 5) and electricity and wood spending state outlines (pg. 21)
- First and most importantly: the transition off fossil fuels is an economic development and affordability strategy for Vermont. This topic is particularly important to me because, before I led EAN, I served as Economic Development Director at the Agency of Commerce and Community Development. The economic conversation about energy has for too long been backwards. Often the question will be asked, “how much will it cost us” to move from fossil fuel to efficient, renewable energy use. Our analysis shows that there are three key questions that we should be asking instead: #1: how much is our fossil fuel dependence currently costing Vermonters and the Vermont economy?; #2, how much do Vermonters stand to save on energy costs as a result of this transition?; and #3 how will the Vermont economy be affected by a transition off fossil fuels? To answer these questions, we asked the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development to conduct an economic impact analysis of EAN’s “Path to Paris” model. The Path to Paris model takes proven and available technologies and best practices as outlined in Vermont’s Comprehensive Energy Plan and models the scale and pace of efficient and renewable energy adoption, primarily in for how we get around and heat our homes and buildings, that will be necessary to meet Vermont’s commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement. GRAPHIC: Path to Paris (pg. 4)
- However, we can only get so much more emissions reduction benefit from how we produce electricity. Our electricity is now over 90% carbon free statewide, and 100% carbon free in certain utility territories, like Burlington Electric Department and Washington Electric Coop. We have largely already picked the low hanging fruit of decarbonizing our electricity generation sources. To achieve the scale and pace of emissions reduction that our commitments demand—and the economic development and consumer savings benefits ACCD projects—we need to build on that foundation of progress, take advantage of that low-carbon electricity, and rapidly electrify how we heat our homes and our vehicles. GRAPHIC: Total site energy sector by sector pie chart breakdowns (pg. 13)
- First and most importantly: the transition off fossil fuels is an economic development and affordability strategy for Vermont. This topic is particularly important to me because, before I led EAN, I served as Economic Development Director at the Agency of Commerce and Community Development. The economic conversation about energy has for too long been backwards. Often the question will be asked, “how much will it cost us” to move from fossil fuel to efficient, renewable energy use. Our analysis shows that there are three key questions that we should be asking instead: #1: how much is our fossil fuel dependence currently costing Vermonters and the Vermont economy?; #2, how much do Vermonters stand to save on energy costs as a result of this transition?; and #3 how will the Vermont economy be affected by a transition off fossil fuels? To answer these questions, we asked the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development to conduct an economic impact analysis of EAN’s “Path to Paris” model. The Path to Paris model takes proven and available technologies and best practices as outlined in Vermont’s Comprehensive Energy Plan and models the scale and pace of efficient and renewable energy adoption, primarily in for how we get around and heat our homes and buildings, that will be necessary to meet Vermont’s commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement. GRAPHIC: Path to Paris (pg. 4)
- Energy equity is based on the principle that all people should have access to reliable, safe, and affordable sources of energy; protection from a disproportionate share of negative impacts or externalities associated with building and operating our energy supply and distribution systems; and equitable distribution of and access to benefits from these systems.
- In addition to the new analysis and findings I have summarized, the report also includes the official tracking information that our network members, public partners, and the media have come to expect from EAN reports. You will find all of this in both the printed reports, which are available for you here today, and on EAN’s website: eanvt.org. It is now my pleasure to introduce…