The document provides a quarterly forecast for 2013. It summarizes that GDP is expected to grow to 3.2% in 2013, up from 2.5% in 2012. Inflation is averaging 5.5% for the year and is dependent on the rand exchange rate, which is forecast to average R9.15/$ for the year. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2013, with any changes likely being an interest rate cut, and the earliest a rate hike could occur is mid-2014. The conclusion emphasizes the need to remain flexible and react to unexpected events.

1. Pivot Points
Quarterly Forecast
Viv Govender

2. Contents
2012
2013
GDP
Inflation and Rand
Interest Rates
Sector Pick
Conclusion
Table of Contents

3. 2012
- Strong Market Performance
- We did better ( refer to fund fact sheet)
- Even in strong market, those that pick correctly
do better
03

4. 2013
-Issues ‘solved’ – Euro Crisis, China Slowdown, US
Unemplyment
-Maybe not
04

5. GDP
- 3.2% for 2013, up from 2.5% for 2012
- Been lowering forecast however
- Dependant on no ‘Black Swan’ events
- Consumer sector also in doubt
05

6. Inflation and Rand
-Averaging 5.5% for year
-Very dependant on Rand
-Average Rand Value R9.15/$ for year
-Current account pressures
06

7. Interest Rates
-Expect no change for year
-If there is a change it will be a cut
-Earliest we can expect a rate hike is mid 2014
07

8. Sector Pick
08

9. Conclusion
- Broad Overview
- Still have to pick individual stocks and
instruments
- Must remain flexible. Just because we don’t
predict an event does not mean we shouldn’t
react to it
09

10. Thank you
For more information:
viv@vunaniprivateclients.co.za /
011 – 384 2925 or
084 585 0254

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