The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for India. It discusses that while May saw the beginning of a bull run, June was more of a reality check with several domestic and global concerns emerging. However, the overall diagnostic is still positive in the short term. It summarizes key economic data points and provides an outlook for various sectors such as banking, energy, infrastructure, and automobiles. The equity market outlook remains positive given reforms by the new government and expectations of improved earnings growth.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Will RBI rate cut keep inflation under check in 2015?IndiaNotes.com
While RBI has begun the rate cut cycle, plenty of headroom for further cuts would be generated going forward as low inflation would be the defining feature of 2015.
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Will RBI rate cut keep inflation under check in 2015?IndiaNotes.com
While RBI has begun the rate cut cycle, plenty of headroom for further cuts would be generated going forward as low inflation would be the defining feature of 2015.
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Complete report of our Economic Outlook Survey for fiscal 13-14 indicates a a moderation in growth going ahead. The survey results indicate GDP growth to slow down to 5.0% in the current fiscal year. This is a downward revision from the 6.0% growth estimate that was reported in the previous round of the survey.
This survey was conducted in the months of August / September 2013 and drew responses from leading economists primarily from the banking and financial services sector.
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
The Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Complete report of our Economic Outlook Survey for fiscal 13-14 indicates a a moderation in growth going ahead. The survey results indicate GDP growth to slow down to 5.0% in the current fiscal year. This is a downward revision from the 6.0% growth estimate that was reported in the previous round of the survey.
This survey was conducted in the months of August / September 2013 and drew responses from leading economists primarily from the banking and financial services sector.
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
The Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
After the uncertainty of the Brexit verdict got over, the market rallied in the last week. The market got off on the
wrong foot on the day of the Referendum results and corrected by almost 1000 points. But the market soon
realized that the renewal in trade agreement between UK and Euro is not going to happen anytime soon and it will
take around 1-2 years. India being an emerging nation, the impact of this event is quite limited. After this the
market resumed its upt uptrend. Since budget, the nifty is up by 1000 points, and in percentage terms it has gained
22%. We should remember that it is still 10% off of the it’s all time high, which was achieved in March 2015.
• Despite the fact that the PE multiple of the Indian Markets is 17 – 18 times, the FIIs continue to invest in India on
account of better growth prospects, better earning visibility. India is the only trillion dollar economy which is
growing on 7.5%, which makes it a lucrative long term story.
Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
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Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
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2. Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 13
Forex 15
Real Estate Outlook 16
Index Page No.
Contents
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”
Dear Investors,
If May marked the beginning of what most experts called a secular bull
run, June was a month of the reality check that there are no one-way
streets. The enthusiasm about the new government continued through
the month. However, several concerns emerged on domestic and global
fronts. On the balance, the diagnostic is still positive. In the short term
though, several challenges remain.
Weak monsoon was widely expected. Actual rainfall (or the lack of it) in
June partially confirmed the expectation. July to September might have
their own deviations from average. It would be foolhardy to predict if
the overall monsoon will be well below the long term average or at par
with it. Nevertheless, the government seems to have got into action to
target food price stability in case the monsoon shortfall turns out to be
indeed significant. We will have to wait and watch how the food prices
react to the expectation of weak monsoon (as of now) and the actual
outcome (by September) and the initiatives of the government. What is
likely though is that RBI will not alter its present stance of caution on
monetary policy. Lower interest rates will have to wait for later – maybe
early 2015.
The progress on governance itself has been encouraging. While it is too
early to judge, the intent and activity level both paint a positive picture.
Some tough decisions on railway fare and fuel prices have been a good
sign. A lot of perception hinges on the Union Budget to be presented on
the 10th of July. However, this might not be necessarily a big-bang
reform budget – albeit a few major reforms may be announced.
Contrary to popular belief, the budgetary exercise does not in itself
require major reforms announcements to be a part of it. Budget is
simply an exercise of drawing up the overall income and expense
account of the government. Some policy measures are definitely a part
of this exercise. However, a lot of potential reforms have only limited
implications for immediate budgetary matters (for instance, labor
market reforms). Such reforms are probably best done through the
normal course of policy making.
Globally, the flare-up in Iraq with the potential disintegration of that
state and establishment of the Caliphate driven by ISIS has long term
implications for oil prices (and of course the geopolitics of the Middle
East!). Iraq is the second largest producer of crude oil after Saudi Arabia.
While majority of its oil is still in the southern (government-controlled)
parts of Iraq, one major oil-well is in northern Iraq. Also while the Iraqi
government of Nuri-Al-Maliki might continue to control the southern oil
producing region, it would constantly face the concerns of terrorism and
sabotage by ISIS. The only factor controlling the oil price for now despite
such worries is the increasing production of shale oil by US. In the recent
years the increase in US shale oil production has nearly balanced out the
entire disruption on account of Libyan civil war, Syrian civil war and the
turmoil in Iraq. Hopefully this would continue and thus limit oil price
spikes in the short term. The long term prognosis for crude oil however
is one of secular increase in prices – pace of increase being the only
relevant variable.
The volatility in crude oil has brought some interest back in gold. We still
do not think it is a good idea to increase allocation to gold – especially
since the rupee price of gold varies far more than the dollar price. We
believe that the better diversification for Indian investors is dollar
denominated growth assets such as developed market equities. In times
of moderate turbulence these tend to have the dual benefit of lower
falls than emerging market equities and some benefits from Rupee
depreciation common to these periods.
3
5. US
Europe
Japan
Emerging
economies
• US Federal Reserve reduced its monthly bond buying program from $45 bn to $35 bn starting in July.
• Initial jobless claims for US state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 317,000 in the week ended
June 7.
• IMF cuts US growth outlook for 2014 to 2% from the 2.8% it predicted in April, due to a weak first
quarter.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s unemployment rate hit a 16 year low in May, suggesting that the economy is rebounding. The
jobless rate in the world’s third largest economy fell to 3.5% , the lowest since 1997.
• Japan’s core machine orders spiked 17.6% in April on a yearly basis after surging 16.1% in the previous
month.
• World Bank projects a 5.5% growth for India in 2014-15, 6.3% in 2015-16 and 6.6% in 2016-17.
• China's average home prices fell 0.2% in May for the first time in two years and price weakness spread
to more major cities, adding to signs of cooling in the property market.
• Government clears seven big-ticket investment projects worth Rs 21000 Cr.
5
• Annual inflation in the Euro zone fell to 0.5% in May from 0.7% in April.
• UK’s retail sales dropped 0.5% in May compared to a downwardly revised gain of 1% in April .
• Euro zone industrial production increased by 1.4% on an annualized basis in April after growing by an
upwardly revised 0.2% in March.
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
• Q4FY14 GDP grew at 4.6% Y-o-Y as against 4.7% in the previous
quarter. As per data released by Central Statistics Office ( CSO )
the economy grew at the rate of 4.7% in 2013-2014, slightly above
the 4.5% growth registered in the previous year.
• Growth in 2013-14 was helped by a smart rebound in the farm
sector which grew at an annual 4.7% compared to 4.5% growth
registered in a year earlier period. Electricity sector also grew at a
healthy rate of 5.9% in 13-14 as against 2.3% in 12-13.
• This is the second consecutive year in which the economy has
grown at a sub 5% level, primarily hurt by policy delays, high
inflation and global slowdown.
• April ’14 IIP came in at a good 3.4% after registering a negative
growth for two consecutive months. The rebound in the numbers
was led by Manufacturing sector which grew by 2.6% the best
figure since July ‘13.
• Electricity grew nearly 12% on back of higher production and
mining kept it’s head above water at 1.2% versus a contraction of
3.4% in April ‘13. Capital Goods did well with a 15% growth against
a contraction of 0.3% in April ’13.
• The return of industrial growth to positive terrain is noteworthy
and has rekindled the hope of industrial recovery which is critical to
lift the economy.
IIP
6
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Apr
13
May
13
Jun
13
Jul
13
Aug
13
Sep
13
Oct
13
Nov
13
Dec
13
Jan
14
Feb
14
Mar
14
Apr
14
5.3
5.5
5.3
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.8 4.7 4.6
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6 GDP Growth
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
As on May 2014 Bank credits grew by 13.8% on a Y-o-Y basis.
Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 15.3%, vis-a-vis 14%
in April 2014.
RBI met on 3rd June for it’s second bi-monthly policy review and
based on assessment of current and evolving macro economic
situation decided to keep the repo rate and CRR unchanged at
8% and 4% respectively. It decided to reduce the Statutory
Liquidity Ratio(SLR) by 50 bps from 23% to 22.5% , the RBI will
also reduce the liquidity provided under export credit finance
facility from 50% to 32% with immediate effect.
The Reserve Bank Governor also said that “the Central Bank is
committed to keeping the economy on a disinflationary course
and if the economy stays the course further policy tightening
will not be warranted.”
Inflation as measured by WPI for May ’14 came in at 6.01%- a 4
month high after witnessing easing since Dec’13 and touching a
9 month low of 4.68% in Feb’14. The main reason for the spurt
in inflation was food inflation which grew to 9.50% in May ‘14
as compared to 8.64% in the previous month. Prices of fruits
also saw a sharp increase from 16.46% in April ‘14 to 19.40% in
May ‘14.
Inflation in Fuel and Power rose to 10.53% in May ‘14 from
8.93% a month earlier, manufacturing grew by a modest 3.55%
in May ‘14 against 3.15% in the month ago period.
Headline CPI for May ’14 came in at 8.28% as against 8.60% in
Apr ’14. The spike came in due to food articles like fruits,
vegetables, sugar and pulses.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
* End of period figures
7
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
WPI CPI
8. Equity Outlook
As a strong reform oriented government takes shape in New Delhi, Indian equity markets have continued to rally post the
election outcome. Markets have rallied almost 40% from the lows in August 2013.
Despite so many negatives plaguing the economy, corrective measures by the new government can quickly revive growth.
8
15000
20000
25000
30000
BSE SENSEX one year Returns
9. Equity Outlook
9
Reforms Agenda
There are a number of measures that we expect the new government to take in 2014 to accelerate the economy – Goods
and Services Tax, Direct cash transfer of subsidies and boost to manufacturing sector.
Revival of large stalled projects will give a boost to capital formation activity and restart the investment cycle. We expect that
the new government will identify some large infrastructure projects and concerted push will be given to drive them to
completion. Dedicated Freight corridor between Mumbai and Delhi is one such project.
Environmental clearances, a big road-block for large projects, to be IT enabled thereby cutting lead times and expediting
infrastructure creation.
Several financial sector reforms are expected which will give a boost to financial savings paving the way for larger domestic
participation in equity markets.
The Budget could see some announcements on excise duty realignments for consumer staples and durables space to boost
short term demand.
Monetary Policy
RBI Governor surprised the market by cutting SLR by 50 bps in the last policy statement. Despite the inflation data getting
comfortable, RBI has decided to hold rates at current levels. Governor believes and we agree that it is important to break the
back of inflation to ensure a sustainable growth trajectory.
The emphasis on core CPI as an inflation metric as compared to WPI is expected to continue. We expect CPI to average
around 8% level for next few months thus ruling out any monetary easing in the first half. However, core CPI should moderate
to 6% which is within the tolerance limit of RBI.
The second half of the year should see interest rates coming off which would be beneficial to interest rate sensitive sectors
like banking, automobiles and infrastructure.
10. Equity Outlook
10
Global Macro Outlook
Continued recovery in US & a stable Euro area are significant positives for Indian equity markets. Global growth outlook
remains supportive of equity investments.
US economy shrank at an annual rate of 1% during the first quarter due to a very harsh winter in some of the more populous
states. However, this de growth was largely due to run downs in inventory levels. We would expect consumer spending to
revive in the next few quarters.
European Central Bank has carried out a fresh monetary stimulus by bringing deposit rates into negative territory. This will
help stabilize European economy.
Japan is showing clear signs of coming out of a five year deflationary trend. Fresh monetary stimulus and labor reforms will
make the recovery stronger.
The revival in global risk appetite has resulted in fresh FII inflows into emerging market equities with India turning out to be a
big beneficiary. India has been one of the top performing equity markets since the middle of September with fresh equity
inflows of 16 billion dollars.
Market View
Corporate earnings growth has started to recover since the last quarter. Sensex earnings growth has improved from 5% in
FY13 to about 10% in FY14 on the back of INR depreciation, for FY15, we would expect a Sensex EPS growth around of 15%.
We would expect earnings growth to accelerate once investment activity is revived and average at 25% for the next six years.
We arrive at a year end Sensex target of 29,300 based on 15 times FY16 earnings, we continue to maintain a 2020 target of
100,000 on Sensex.
11. Sector Stance Remarks
BFSI Overweight
Private sector banks and NBFC’s are expected to deliver healthy earnings growth. We expect public
sector to significantly outperform due to cheap valuations and stabilization in asset quality.
Energy Overweight
With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s
will come down during the course of the year. Rupee appreciation will also help.
E&C Overweight
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity will reverse in the next few quarters. We see a
new infrastructure cycle taking shape this year.
Automobiles Overweight
We are positive on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher
pricing power. Two wheeler and four wheeler sales are also showing signs of upturn.
Power Utilities Neutral
We like the regulated return characteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Sector View
11
12. Sector Stance Remarks
Healthcare Neutral
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.
FMCG Neutral
We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer discretionary consumption beneficiaries such as
cigarettes, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately
higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
IT/ITES Neutral
Demand seems to be coming back in US. North American volume growth has also remained
resilient. With significant rupee depreciation in the last few months, margins will get a boost.
Telecom Underweight
While regulatory hurdles seem to be reducing, recent aggressive bidding for spectrum has revived
fears of unhealthy competition. Emergent competition from the social media space also present a
formidable challenge.
Metals Underweight
Steel companies will benefit because of rupee depreciation. However, commodity demand stays
low globally due to low capex activity.
Cement Underweight
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lack luster demand. With regulator taking a
strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
Sector View
12
13. Debt Outlook
•The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 8.70% which is 4 bps higher than the last months close of 8.66%.
• The RBI infused Rs 61,000 Cr into the banking system through a 14 day term repo auction to prop up
liquidity.
•RBI announced the cut-off price of 91-Days Treasury Bills at Rs. 97.91 (YTM - 8.5619%). The entire
auction was fully subscribed.
•The spread on the 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 27 bps on 25th June, 2014 from 63 bps (as
on 26th May, 2014).
10-yr G-sec yield
Yield curve
(%)
(%)
13
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80
9.00
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.9
9.7
10.5
11.3
12.1
12.9
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.1
16.9
17.7
18.5
19.4
6.8000
7.3000
7.8000
8.3000
8.8000
9.3000
14. Debt Strategy
OutlookCategory Details
Long Tenure
Debt
Our recommendations regarding long term debt is neither buy nor sell for now. And
after the volatility settles Investors could look to add to dynamic and medium to long
term income funds over the next few months. Long term debt is likely to see capital
appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. There is lesser probability of rate
cuts in the near future and there could be a lot of volatility in the g-sec yields as well.
An important point to note is that as commodity prices are cooling down, current
account deficit may reduce to some extent. But all this is coupled with uncertainty. We
suggest matching risk appetite and investment horizon to fund selection. Hence we
recommend that if investing for a period of 2 years or above then long term can be
looked upon or else holding/profit booking could be a good idea. Investors who may
want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those
who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term can also invest in longer
tenure papers/Funds.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A
similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has
also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With RBI maintaining status quo on key interest rates in the economy we would
suggest to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt. Due to
liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan in the
first half of the new fiscal, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds
still have high YTMs (9.5%–10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure
Debt
Credit
14
15. Forex
• The Indian Rupee depreciated against all the four major currencies in
the last month. It saw a depreciation of 2.61% against GBP,2.02%
against USD, 1.99% against Japanese Yen and 1.76% against the EURO.
• The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand by state run
banks on behalf of importers, mainly oil importers. Further, weak
domestic market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the
currency.
• Additionally, uncertainty over Iraq turmoil continued the downside
movement in the currency, however, sharp downside in the currency
was prevented due to inflow of foreign funds in equities and debt
markets. Foreign inflows stood around $2.3 billion in equities and $2.9
billion in debt for the month of June and total inflows for the current
year at $9.9 billion and $10.5 billion respectively.
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• The projected capital account balance for Q3 FY 13 is projected at
Rs. 171984 crores along with the Q1 and Q2 being at 88013 Cr
and 130409 Cr respectively.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
15
Exports during May,2014were valued at US $ 27.99 bn which was
12.40% higher than the level of US $24.91 bn during May, 2013.
Imports during May,2014 were valued at US $ 39.23 bn
representing a negative growth of 11.41% over the level of imports
valued at US $ 44.28bn in May, 2013 translating into a trade deficit
of $11.24 bn.
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) FY 12 (Q3) FY 12 (Q4) FY 13 (Q1)
FY14(Q2)
-2.02%
-2.61%
-1.76%
-1.99%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Export(%) Import Trade Balance (mn $)
16. 16
Real Estate Outlook
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
Sales in the last quarter were slow. Investors and end-users were
postponing the purchase decision at the backdrop of the impending
General elections as well as state level elections in some markets. With
a single party gaining majority at the Centre and the consequent
political stability, apartment sales could be expected to pick up over
the next few quarters.
Developers too have been facing delay in getting approvals on account
of elections. Again, with the new political stability, it is expected that
procuring approvals will be relatively faster and most markets may
witness a lot of new launches.
Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft.
entry pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and
Mumbai suburbs can be expected to continue generating good
percentage returns with relatively lower risk.
Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend
towards nuclear families, increasing disposable
income, rising aspiration to own quality products and
the growth in infrastructure facilities in these cities.
Price appreciation is more concentrated to specific
micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh,
Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna
and Cochin are expected to perform well.
Commercial/IT
Currently, the over-supply in commercial asset class still continues,
thereby dampening the capital values. While rentals have been seen
increasing at a slow pace over the last couple of months, they still
remain lower than the peal values achieved in the past.
However, companies across industries such as IT, consultancy and e-
commerce could begin leasing and buying office space in expectations
of an economic boom under a stable central government.
Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-
in periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-
term horizon.
Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be
stable at their current levels in the commercial asset
class. Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets.
17. Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
Capital values as well as lease rentals continue to be stagnant.
The effects of the change in FDI policy to allow 100% in single-
brand retail are yet to have any effect of the market for retails
assets. Developers continue to defer the construction costs as
absorption continues to be low unsold , inventory levels high.
Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared to
mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these rentals
gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant.
The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past in the Tier-2
cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this phenomenon
can be known with more certainty once the effect of FDI is more
visible in Tier I cities.
Land
Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I
cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and other
infrastructure developments present good investment
opportunities. Caution should however be exercised due to the
complexities typically involved in land investments.
Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth
corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low
investment base in such areas.
Real Estate Outlook
17
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
18. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Capital Ltd. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon
sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information
and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be
singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. The
investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their
specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information
or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy Capital Ltd nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy
Capital Ltd accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
Karvy Capital Ltd, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (hereinafter referred to as Karvy) may, from time to time,
make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and
derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a
company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed
on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only.
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Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they
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Any information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
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18