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Weekly Chart Book
November 11, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for
research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts,
including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and
information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.
Weekly Highlights
 Macro Risk and Financial Stress increased this week
 S&P 500 (-1.3%) on Thursday was the biggest selloff since August 27th
 Treasury yields have broken their near term downtrend, now @ 2.75%
 Investment Grade Rolling Over, High Yield Overbought
 US Dollar continues to strengthen (ECB 0.25% Rate Cut on Wed.)
 USDMXN near 12 month highs, currently @ 13.17 per USD
 Q3 GDP, October Payrolls, and Personal Income beat expectations
 Crude Oil is challenging a 5 year uptrend
 WTI to Brent spread widened to close out the week, now @ $10.72
 China consumer and economic data suggests spending growth
 Earnings Expectations for Gold Miners appear to be bottoming

2
Accuvest ETF Heat Map

3
Financial Conditions
Developed Markets

5
Emerging Markets

6
US Financial Conditions vs. 52 weeks & 2000-2007 Period

7
The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

8
Global Financial Stress Index

9
Citi Macro Risk Index

10
Fixed Income & Credit
US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

12
UST Curve vs. US Investment Grade Curve

13
U.S. Treasury 30 Year Yield

14
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

15
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

16
Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

17
Investment Grade Bond Prices

18
Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

19
High Yield Bond Prices

20
High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

21
Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

22
Emerging Market Bond Spreads

23
Global Equities
World Equity Indices

25
MSCI All Country World Index

26
ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

27
S&P 500 Index

28
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

29
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

30
MSCI EAFE Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

31
MSCI Emerging Markets Index

32
MSCI EM Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

33
Equity Risk Premiums by Country

34
Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

35
The Economy
Last week’s Economic Calendar

37
Next week’s Economic Calendar

38
Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

39
US Economic Surprise Index (Data’s Deviation from Expectations)

40
US Personal Income Growth (YoY%)

41
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (YoY%)

42
Currencies & Commodities
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

44
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q1 2014)

45
US Dollar Index

46
Euro €

47
Japanese Yen ¥

48
Mexican Peso

49
Global Commodity Prices

50
Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

51
Gold Prices – 5 Years

52
Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

53

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