The document provides an economic outlook and investment advice for investors. It discusses positive developments in the global and Indian economies that are supportive of equity markets. Key points:
- Global growth remains positive, supporting equity markets. The US recovery is strong and the Eurozone is improving.
- The Indian economy is showing signs of recovery, though growth remains below 5%. Inflation spiked but is expected to cool off.
- Elections are typically positive for Indian equities, with markets expecting improved governance. Opinion polls favor the opposition.
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged despite high inflation, believing prices will fall. Rates may rise slightly in the first half but fall in the second half.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Interim Budget 2019, presented on Feb 1, held a few good surprises for the farmer community and the salaried classes but was largely in line with market expectations. Markets, which had already ended January 2019 on a flat note (up 0.5% for the month), remained largely unaffected by the Budget announcements. Read the document to know more.
We are delighted to bring to you the second annual edition of the "India Wealth Report". Evidently, wealth in India continues to rise at an unprecedented rate, outperforming most countries around the world.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
From the desk of the CEO
Dear Investors,
Market movements are usually a result of mix of global and
domestic cues. In the third quarter, United States saw a fall in
the GDP after a formidable growth in the previous quarter,
adding to the dilemma of the Fed whether to increase rates or
not. After the Fed meeting in October, it resulted in status quo
on interest rates. Due to continuing global uncertainties, a
slightly lower inflation path and mixed macroeconomic data,
the Fed once again refrained from entering into a tightening
policy. In another part of the world, China’s six year low GDP
growth added to concerns of a continuing slower growth path.
During the tenth month of the calendar year in the absence of
major negative global cues, government policies and domestic
green shoots drove up the equity markets back home. Due to a
panic of devaluation of emerging market currencies in
August-September, markets had faced a knee-jerk reaction
then. However, October finally witnessed stabilization in
emerging markets. India was no exception. This was mainly
because of two reasons. Firstly, the stabilization led to a
rebound in global markets and thus investor sentiments.
Secondly, a domino effect of the former led to the reversal of
FII outflows that added to the recovery.
Green shoots such as IIP and inflation indicated that economic
revival is on the way, leading to the RBI front loading the rate
cuts in September. The trade deficit came in lower during the
month. Though exports contracted, imports contracted even
further. An appreciation in the domestic currency and strong
indirect taxes numbers added to the cheer and pushed markets
further up rebound of the markets.
Going forward, one can expect markets to move in the
sideways range with a quieter Diwali and no major fireworks.
However, this period of consolidation continues to provide
good opportunities for long-term investors. May the “Diyas”
bring light into your lives, while you pray to the Goddess of
wealth during Diawli. We wish you growth in your wealth
through positive market movements in the remaining part of
2015.
Interim Budget 2019, presented on Feb 1, held a few good surprises for the farmer community and the salaried classes but was largely in line with market expectations. Markets, which had already ended January 2019 on a flat note (up 0.5% for the month), remained largely unaffected by the Budget announcements. Read the document to know more.
We are delighted to bring to you the second annual edition of the "India Wealth Report". Evidently, wealth in India continues to rise at an unprecedented rate, outperforming most countries around the world.
India Wealth Report is an Initiative by Karvy Private Wealth.
It is a comprehensive report which talks about the slice and dice of the magnitude of the wealth existing in India.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
India's total external debt rose by $29.5 bn, or 6.6%, to $475.8 bn at the end of March 2015, mainly due to increase in external commercial borrowings and NRI deposits.
Fifteen states sign a memorandum of agreement (MoA) with the Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation for ‘housing for all’ mission in urban areas.
According to RBI’s annual report, the central bank remains focused on bringing down consumer inflation to its target of 4% by March 2018.
India to auction 20 major iron ore mines to revive industry.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
UK GDP rose by 2.6% annually in Q2 2015, compared to 2.9% in Q1.
UK GfK consumer confidence index jumped to 7 in August from 4 in July.
United States
US economy expanded 3.7% in Q2, higher than the previous estimate of 2.3%, and 0.6% growth in the first quarter.
US consumer spending increased 0.3% in July after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in June while the personal income rose by 0.4% in July, matching the increase seen in the previous month.
US pending home sales index increased 0.5% after a revised 1.7% decline in June.
China
China’s industrial profits fell 2.9% year on year in July, sharply down from the 0.3% decline posted in June.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Twenty-one years ago China officially devalued its currency and
the events following that eventually led to the Asian crisis. Last
month experienced a similar scare when the Chinese markets
took down the rest of the world with it after devaluating its
currency once again on 11th August 2015. In hindsight the
causality of this event has come into light. The main trigger
was the bursting of the Chinese stock market bubble last
month that triggered a huge sell off in the market. To add fuel
to the fire, the Yuan was devalued creating a contagion affect
leading to a global slowdown. The “Risk-Off” strategy made
global funds pull out money from emerging markets and move
to safer havens.
The re-alignment of commodities affected countries like
Australia, Malaysia, Brazil and Russia among others. Along with
this gold prices fell too, which was noticed in the fall in gold
futures in New York for four straight sessions, increasing gold’s
volatility. Crude was no exception to the fall. However it
showed improvements towards the end of the month after an
announcement by OPEC to come up with a plan to boost
prices. After a slump, U.S. markets rose after the release of the
GDP data and improved consumer confidence. Across the
ocean from US, European markets rose too on the back of
improvement in German business confidence. Globally markets
seemed to recover gradually towards the end of the month.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP), on the domestic front, moved into the positive territory in November 2014, signalling improvement in growth momentum. We hope that going forward, the incipient signs of revival would transform into a firm recovery especially as there is some progress in investment intentions and business confidence is on the ascendant. On the global front, slowing growth in Japan and Euro Area has increased the uncertainties in global growth.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the economic data coming out of Japanese and Euro Area economies, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, and Balance of Payments. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on the topic “Enabling 'Make in India' Through Effective Tax Reforms”. In Focus of the Month, we look at the year gone by and list out the challenges which await us in 2015.
Appended below is the link to download the November-December 2014 of Economy Matters for your ready reference:
Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
After the uncertainty of the Brexit verdict got over, the market rallied in the last week. The market got off on the
wrong foot on the day of the Referendum results and corrected by almost 1000 points. But the market soon
realized that the renewal in trade agreement between UK and Euro is not going to happen anytime soon and it will
take around 1-2 years. India being an emerging nation, the impact of this event is quite limited. After this the
market resumed its upt uptrend. Since budget, the nifty is up by 1000 points, and in percentage terms it has gained
22%. We should remember that it is still 10% off of the it’s all time high, which was achieved in March 2015.
• Despite the fact that the PE multiple of the Indian Markets is 17 – 18 times, the FIIs continue to invest in India on
account of better growth prospects, better earning visibility. India is the only trillion dollar economy which is
growing on 7.5%, which makes it a lucrative long term story.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
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how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
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3. From the Desk of CIO
Dear Investors,
The assembly elections during December fuelled an already
Growth below 5% seems to have become an acceptable level.
strong investor optimism, at least on the institutional side.
While the argument that it cant get much worse has some
Retail investors continued to be net sellers through December.
merit, the overdependence of a revival on significant
Debt markets received a positive surprise in the RBI
improvement in governance after the general election seems
announcement of status quo on rates. Globally, US economy
somewhat dangerous. For now though, investors seem to
threw a positive surprise. Hence even though tapering finally
have already assumed the best on this front.
began, the markets around the world reacted to it rather
calmly.
We believe that growth revival is likely partly due to easing of
Going into 2014, the economic outlook remains confusing.
With food inflation getting entrenched and WPI inflation also
refusing to stay down, monetary policy easing seems rather
far. The pause in rate hike may not last long if inflation
continues at current levels. On the positive side, the trade
balance seems to have adjusted towards a better level on the
back of a depreciated Rupee. The currency instability is at
tensions globally and domestically (on currency front and the
firefighting thereafter) and partly due to an improvement in
sentiment. The latter might actually be self fulfilling unless we
witness a negative shock of some sort. Especially the
conducive global economic climate might play significant role
in buoying investor sentiment if not necessarily economic
growth.
least reduced for now, thus eliminating the need for any
firefighting response from RBI and its attendant costs.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 22”
3
4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
As on 31st
Dec 2013
Change over
last month
Change over
last year
BSE Sensex
Equity
Markets
S & P BSE Sensex
S&P 500
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
85
75
21171
1.8%
9.0%
S&P Nifty
6304
2.1%
6.8%
S&P 500
1848
2.4%
29.6%
9.3000
4.0%
56.7%
8.3000
CNX Nifty
Nikkei 225
Nikkei 225
16291
8.8000
10 yr Gsec
7.8000
7.3000
6.8000
10-yr G-Sec Yield
77 bps
Call Markets
8.73%
327 bps
NA
9.00%
0 bps
50 bps
RICI Index
Commodity
Markets
10 bps
Fixed Deposit*
Debt Markets
8.82%
3534
1.6%
(4.5%)
Gold (`/10gm)
29075
(4.7%)
(4.5%)
Crude Oil ($/bbl)
111.65
0.5%
0.8%
Rupee/Dollar
61.90
0.8%
(11.5%)
Yen/Dollar
105.33
(2.8%)
(18.5%)
(As on 26th December)
Forex
Markets
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
Gold
`/$
4
• Indicates SBI one-year FD
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June , the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
5. Economy Update - Global
• The U.S. central bank would reduce its monthly $85 billion bond buying program by $10 billion starting
in January.
US
• The Commerce Department said housing starts jumped 22.7%, the biggest increase since January 1990,
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units.
• December's service sector PMI rose to 56.0 from 55.9.
• Irish government bonds are close to marking their second year as the euro zone's top-performing debt,
giving a 11.7% year-to-date returns.
Europe
• Britain's services PMI fell to a still very strong 60.0, its fifth highest reading since December 2006.
• Austria's 2013 budget envisioned a nominal 2.3% deficit, due to higher-than-expected tax revenue and
one-off income from a mobile frequency auction.
• Japan’s 10-year yield was up 2 basis points at 0.71%, its highest level since 18th Sept 2013.
Japan
• Japan's output of rolled copper product rose to 67,751 tonnes in November on a seasonally adjusted
basis, up 9.6% from a year earlier.
• Japan's general budget deficit is estimated at 9.5% of GDP in calendar 2013, among the worst in the
developed world.
Emerging
economies
• India’s forex reserves rose by $4.4 bn to $295.7 bn the highest level since April due to foreign institutional
inflows into the equity markets.
• India's industrial production contracted for the first time in four months with a 1.8% slump in October.
• Annual consumer inflation in China unexpectedly slowed to 3% in November from an eight-month high of
3.2%.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0%
IIP
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
• Q2FY14 GDP growth improved to 4.8% YoY as compared to 4.4%
in the previous quarter leading to growth of 4.6% in first half of
this fiscal. Strong agriculture sector growth and meager
improvement in industrial sector aided in pushing the growth in
the economy in the second quarter. While growth in services
sector continued to slow down.
• GDP at Market Price which had trended below GDP at Factor Cost
for five consecutive quarters rose above FC at 5.7% as subsidies
dropped in second quarter as compared to previous year.
-2.0%
-4.0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13
Jul Aug Sep Oct
13 13 13 13
• Oct’13 IIP declined by 1.8% YoY, compared to 2.0% and 8.4%
growth in Sept’13 & Oct’12, respectively. Unexpected positive
performance in capital goods sector mainly led to the divergence
between our estimate and the provisional figure. Continued
slowdown was witnessed in Consumer Durables sector which
contributed significantly to the sluggish growth.
• The cumulative growth of the industrial production for the AprilOctober period year-on-year was at a standstill from a growth of
about 1.2 percent in the corresponding period of last fiscal.
• Agriculture growth rose to 4.6 per cent during July-September
from 2.7 per cent in April-June; the growth for the first half of
2013-14 for the farm sector, according to the data released, is 3.6
per cent. The agriculture growth achieved in the first half of 201314 is just about the long term average.
• Contribution of Services sector to overall GDP growth in Q2FY14
slowed down further to 76.5% of the GDP. Growth slowed down
sharply to 5.9% YoY from peak growth of 10.9% in Mar’11.
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
6.9
GDP growth
6.1
5.3
5.5
5.3
4.5
4.8
4.4
4.8
• The headline figure for Jul’13 IIP has been revised downwards by 17
bps to 2.6% YoY on back of 1.1% decline in basic metals.
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
20.0%
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
Bank Credit
Aggregate Deposits
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
As on Nov 2013 Bank credits grew by 14.2% on a Y-o-Y basis
which is about 2.8% lower than the growth witnessed in Nov
2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 16.1%, viz-a
viz a growth of 12.8% in Nov 2012.
On 18th Dec, RBI adopted a wait and watch approach and
retained its key operative rates; RBI maintained Repo rate at
7.75% consequently Reserve Repo rate stands at 6.75% and MSF
stands at 8.75%. Policy document clearly focused on cooling off
of Inflationary expectations in Dec’13. RBI is expecting food
inflation especially vegetable prices both at retail level and
wholesale level to come off from the current peak. However,
even with the prices of food & beverages crashing sharply, WPI
would still remain above 6.0% and CPI would stay above 9.0%
which is above RBI’s comfort zone.
* End of period figures
Headline WPI spiked unexpectedly to 7.52% YoY in Nov’13, visà-vis reading of 7.00% in Oct’13. The prices have risen across
the segments in the month, while food inflation in particular
contributed significantly to the headline figure.
Due to expected revision in Electricity index for Sep’13, WPI for
that month has been revised upwards sharply by 56 bps to
7.05% YoY. The average WPI for Apr-Nov’13 is higher at 6.12%
YoY as compared to 7.60% in the year-ago period. Core Inflation
although remained low at 2.63% YoY in Nov’13 is slightly higher
as compared to 2.58% in Oct’13.
Headline CPI spiked to 11.24% YoY in Nov’13, sharpest increase
in the entire series, as compared to 10.17% in Oct’13. The gap
between CPI and WPI inflation has narrowed down to 3.72%
from the peak of 4.74% in Mar’13 mainly due to sharp rise in
WPI Inflation.
While on MoM basis, CPI index expanded by 138bps. Nearly
65.00% of the increase in general price level was contributed by
Food Inflation, which continued to remain elevated at 14.45%.
8.00%
7.50%
7.00%
6.50%
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
Wholesale Price Index
7
8. Equity Outlook: 2014: A new
beginning!
The past year turned out to be quite constructive for Indian equity. Markets made fresh life time highs on the back of improving
domestic macros, supportive global equity and expected governance improvement in India after next general elections. Sensex crossed
the level of 21,200 after a gap of almost six years. FII reaffirmed their commitment towards Indian equities with more than 20 billion
dollars invested in 2013.
BSE SENSEX
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
31-Oct-13
31-Jul-13
30-Apr-13
31-Jan-13
31-Oct-12
31-Jul-12
30-Apr-12
31-Jan-12
31-Oct-11
31-Jul-11
30-Apr-11
31-Jan-11
31-Oct-10
31-Jul-10
30-Apr-10
31-Jan-10
31-Oct-09
31-Jul-09
30-Apr-09
31-Jan-09
31-Oct-08
31-Jul-08
30-Apr-08
31-Jan-08
31-Oct-07
31-Jul-07
30-Apr-07
31-Jan-07
8000
We see 2014 bringing a new bull cycle into existence. A good monsoon, strong export sector, continued recovery in US & a stable Euro
area are significant positives for equity markets. With domestic macro-economic data also on the mend, we are aggressive buyers of
Indian equity. We have a year end sensex target of 24,800.
8
9. Elections are good for Indian
Equity!
Indian equity markets have tended to move up going into the general elections. The average return of Nifty in the six month period
going into the general elections has been 17.6% in the post liberalization era.
1 Month
3 Months
40.0%
6 Months
36.0%
28.9%
30.0%
30.6%
22.8%
17.6%
20.0%
11.4%
10.0%
2.7%
13.7%
12.0%
9.0%
4.5%5.9%
8.7%
3.2%
9.0%
8.5%
2.8%
0.2%
0.0%
20-Jun-91
-10.0%
12-May-96
3-Mar-98
-6.3%
6-Oct-99
13-May-04
16-May-09
Average
-8.6%
-10.2%
-20.0%
The recent opinion polls indicate support building up for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance
(NDA). There have been several concerns about governance and populist schemes in the last few years and markets are getting
excited about prospects of a better government emerging from the next election. We would expect a bigger rally building up going
into the election.
9
10. Global Macro Outlook
Global growth outlook remains supportive of equity. In their recent meeting, US Federal Reserve has
started the tapering of their bond buying program as unemployment rates have hit a five year low. US GDP
growth rate in last quarter was an impressive 4.1% underscoring a strong macroeconomic recovery.
The tough measures to ensure financial discipline in the peripheral eurozone area in the last few years
have began to show results. European economies have seen rebound in growth with several countries
coming out of recession. We expect this macroeconomic recovery in the Euro area to get stronger in the
next few quarters.
Japan is showing clear signs of coming out of a five year deflationary trend. GDP growth has been strong
with yen weakness benefitting the exporters. Fresh monetary stimulus and labour reforms will make the
recovery stronger.
The strong growth momentum will help sustain an upwards bias in developed and Emerging market
equities. The revival in global risk appetite has resulted in fresh FII inflows into emerging market equities
with India turning out to be a big beneficiary. India has been one of the top performing equity markets
since the middle of September with fresh equity inflows of 8 billion dollars.
10
11. Monetary Policy
RBI Governor surprised the market by keeping repo rate unchanged against the consensus expectations of a
25bps increase in repo rate in the recent policy statement. Despite the inflation data for last month delivering
a negative surprise, RBI has decided to hold rates at current levels. Governor believes and we agree that the
recent spike in inflation has been caused by food and vegetable prices which is expected to reverse in the
coming months.
Considering the fragile economic environment, any further increase in interest rates can derail the nascent
economic recovery .
The emphasis on core CPI as an inflation metric as compared to WPI is expected to continue. We expects CPI
to average around 8-9% level for next year months thus ruling out any monetary easing in the first half.
However, core CPI should moderate to 7% which is within the tolerance limit of RBI.
We expect, at most, a 25bps rate hike in first half of 2014 with rates remaining largely stable till the time
inflation starts cooling off. The second half of the year should see interest rates coming off which would be
beneficial to interest rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and infrastructure.
11
12. Macroeconomic Forecast
GDP growth in the last two quarters has remained below 5%. The forecast for FY14 GDP growth has been cut
from 5.5% to 5% by RBI. We believe that growth in the next two quarters will improve due to strengthening
export growth and expected pick-up in agriculture.
Revival of large stalled projects cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Investments will give a boost to capital
formation activity. There are several large projects like Delhi Mumbai Industrial corridor which are progressing
well. Approvals have also been given recently to several large Oil & Gas and power projects. This would help
the Capex cycle in the country which can accelerate the growth rate.
We would expect a GDP growth of 6% in FY15 and believe that economy will see a revival of growth and
earnings cycle. The agriculture and services sector continue to show strong traction and gradually even
manufacturing sector should pick-up as consumer demand revives.
A real GDP growth of 6% along with Inflation of around 7% should lead to a nominal GDP growth of 13%
leading to earnings growth of around 13-16%.
12
13. Sensex Target
Corporate earnings growth has started to recover since the last quarter. Sensex earnings growth has improved
from 5% in FY13 to about 10% in FY14 on the back of INR depreciation. For FY15, we would expect a Sensex EPS
growth around of 15%.
We arrive at a year end sensex target of 24,800 based on 16 times FY15 earnings. This gives a 18% upside from
the current market levels.
While Sensex has made fresh life time highs, the performance of various sectors have been quite divergent.
Pharma, IT and Auto have been best performers in the last six years, while Banking, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods
and Metals have been worst performers. We expect this trend to start to reverse going forward.
With interest rates not expected to increase a lot, we have turned positive on interest rate sensitive sectors like
banks and automobiles. Public sector banks are trading at quite cheap valuations and we expect significant
outperformance from that space in the next two to three years. We expect export oriented sectors like IT to
continue to benefit from the significant rupee depreciation seen this year. Telecom is another sector which
might deliver strong earnings due to return of pricing power & reduction in competitive intensity.
13
14. Sector View
Sector
Stance
Remarks
Overweight
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.
Overweight
The measures taken to stabilize the rupee have largely been reversed and we expect RBI to pause
in the short term. We expect public sector to significantly outperform due to cheap valuations and
stabilization in asset quality
Telecom
Overweight
The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started
to increase tariffs slowly and pricing power is returning. We believe that consolidation will happen
sooner than expected.
IT/ITES
Overweight
Demand seems to be coming back in US. North American volume growth has also remained
resilient. With significant rupee depreciation in the last few months, margins will get a boost.
Power Utilities
Neutral
We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Healthcare
BFSI
14
15. Sector View
Sector
Stance
Remarks
Automobiles
Neutral
We are positive on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher
pricing power.
FMCG
Neutral
We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such
as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be
disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
E&C
Underweight
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with lack of demand has hurt the sector.
It will take some time before capex activity revives
Energy
Underweight
With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s will
come down during the course of the year. However, rupee depreciation will reverse most of those
gains.
Metals
Underweight
Steel companies will benefit because of rupee depreciation. However, commodity demand stays
demand globally due to low capex activity
Cement
Underweight
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lacklustre demand. With regulator taking a
strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
15
16. Debt Outlook
9.60
Yield curve
9.3000
10-yr G-sec yield
9.40
9.20
8.8000
9.00
(%)
8.60
7.8000
8.40
7.3000
8.20
8.00
6.8000
0.0
0.8
1.5
2.3
3.0
3.8
4.5
5.3
6.0
6.8
7.5
8.2
9.0
9.7
10.5
11.2
12.0
12.7
13.5
14.2
15.0
15.7
16.5
17.2
18.0
18.7
19.5
(%)
8.3000
8.80
• The 10 yr g-sec closed the month at 8.82% which is 10 bps higher than the last month’s close of 8.72%.
• This year saw substantial volatility in the Indian bond markets. First, a large foreign institutional investor (FII)-buying triggered
rally in April followed by an equally swift FII sell-off and outflow on the back of US Federal Reserve Governor's comments on
tapering in May. This had a dramatic effect on not only bond yields which moved from a low of 7.11 per cent to 7.99 per cent in
these two months, but also on the currency.
• This volatility was followed by another round of sharp interest rate movements as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) put up a
strong interest rate defence of the currency and raised the operative rate in the system from 7.25 per cent to 10.25 per cent.
Bond prices plummeted and yields went up by 1.7 per cent even as the rupee depreciated by 15 per cent to 68.8 against the
dollar.
• G-sec yields saw a lot of movement during the month on account of overall bearish sentiment and policy
makers’ statement. The volumes in G-sec markets were also lack-luster with most investors preferring to stay
away from the market. RBI governor’s comment that the present status quo does not mean a pause in tightening
of interest rates affected the market sentiments.
16
17. Debt Strategy
Category
Outlook
Details
Short Tenure
Debt
With the last 25 bps repo rate hike and influence of domestic and global
factors in the market, some uncertainty is coupled with the interest rate
scenario in the coming quarters, hence, we would suggest to invest in and
hold on to current investments in short term debt. Due to liquidity pressures
increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields
would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5%–10%)
providing interesting investment opportunities.
Credit
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current
yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity
in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry
at current levels attractive.
Long Tenure
Debt
Our recommendations regarding long term debt is neither buy nor sell for now. And after
the volatility settles Investors could look to add to dynamic and medium to long term
income funds over the next few months. Long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation
owing to the expected monetary easing. There is lesser probability of rate cuts in the near
future and there could be a lot of volatility in the g-sec yields as well. An important point to
note is that as commodity prices are cooling down, current account deficit may reduce to
some extent. But all this is coupled with uncertainty. We suggest matching risk appetite
and investment horizon to fund selection. Hence we recommend that if investing for a
period of 2 years or above then long term can be looked upon or else holding/profit
booking could be a good idea. Investors who may want to stay invested for the medium
term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for
the longer term can also invest in longer tenure papers/Funds.
17
18. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
-1.00%
3.39%
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Trade balance and export-import data
Export(%)
Import
0
Trade Balance (mn $)
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000
0.80%
0.05%
-0.45%
USD
GBP
EURO
YEN
• The rupee ended with gains on 31st Dec, but posted a 11% fall in
2013, ending a tough year marked by a descent to a record low and
suffering from continued concerns about its outlook next year.
• The Rupee appreciated against all major currencies except Euro in the
month of December 2013. It depreciated by 0.45% against the Euro
whereas saw an appreciation of 0.8% against the US Dollar, 0.5%
against the Great Britain Pound. Also, we witnessed a huge
movement in the Rupee against the Japanese Yen where it finished
the month by appreciating by 3.39%.
• A narrowing current account deficit has allowed the rupee to
withstand the start of reduced bond purchases by the Federal
Reserve. The Finance Minister has said that he expects the CAD to be
lower at $50 billion for the current FY. The CAD was at $88 billion last
year and an improvement in the CAD figures should be good for the
Indian currency.
Exports during November, 2013 were valued at US $ 24.67bn which
was 5.86% higher than the level of US $ 23.25 bn during November,
2012. Imports during November,2013 were valued at US $ 33.83 Bn
representing a negative growth of 16.37% over the level of imports
valued at US $ 40.45 Bn in November 2012 translating into a trade
deficit of $9.22 Bn.
140000
FY14(Q2)
90000
40000
-10000
FY 11 (Q2)
FY 11 (Q3)
FY 11 (Q4)
FY 12 (Q1)
FY 12 (Q2)
FY 12 (Q3)
FY 12 (Q4)
FY 13 (Q1)
• The projected capital account balance for Q3 FY 13 is projected at
Rs. 171984 crores along with the Q1 and Q2 being at 88013 Cr
and 130409 Cr respectively.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in
the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
18
19. Commodities
After 12 years in succession of a rising gold price, 2013 ended as an
unforgettable year for the yellow metal. The investment case for gold largely
depends on whether the global central banks achieve a successful exit from the
easy monetary policy. If successful, then bears have a party, if not, 2013 sell off
is a massive buying opportunity.
Precious
Metals
Some argue that gold price is discounting the falling inflation in the US, paving
way for higher real rates - the current US 10-year bond yield offers a real rate of
1.7%. This argument is flawed as rising real rates is a reason to buy gold, not sell
it. After pumping in trillions of dollar into system, the Fed has not yet achieved
its inflation target and any sign of deflation would ring alarm bells, encouraging
them to inject further more trillion dollars into the system. And, if at all there is
a rise in inflation, it won’t stop at a targeted 2.5% given the massive liquidity
infusion over these years. And, if history is of any guide, it is hard to believe that
there will be any successful exit from quantitative easing.
34000
33000
32000
Gold
31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
We thus favors a structurally bullish view on gold. With a nonstop rise in Dow
Jones Index, clearly American equities are over heated and in euphoric phase.
Short Equities, Long Gold could be the theme for this year.
125
Crude
120
Oil & Gas
The WTI crude dropped to the lowest level in four months as US stockpiles
increased and a dollar strength further capping any potential upside. The crude
output by OPEC increased to an average 30.621 million barrels and with no fresh
triggers to keep oil prices boiling amid ample supplies and increasing inventories,
crude oil prices are likely to be stay weaker.
115
110
105
100
95
90
19
20. Real Estate Outlook
Asset Classes
Residential
Tier I
Tier II
Due to a flurry of new launches in the first quarter of the year, most
markets witnessed an increase in the unsold inventory levels even with
relatively steady sales. Consequently, last quarter saw lesser new Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend
towards nuclear families, increasing disposable
launches.
income, rising aspiration to own quality products and
With reduced new launches and steady absorption, the demand supply the growth in infrastructure facilities in these cities.
Price appreciation is more concentrated to specific
gap is expected to reduce over the coming months.
micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh,
Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 – 6,000 per sq. ft. Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna
entry pricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and and Cochin are expected to perform well.
Mumbai suburbs cane be expected to continue generating good
percentage returns with relatively lower risk.
The over-supply in commercial asset class still continues, thereby
dampening the capital values.
Commercial/IT
While rentals have been seen increasing at a slow pace over the last
couple of months, they still remain lower than the peal values achieved
in the past. In relative terms, Bangalore market continues to
outperform other markets owing primarily to the demand from the IT
industry.
Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be
stable at their current levels in the commercial asset
class. Low unit sizes have played an important role in
maintaining the absorption levels in these markets.
Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lockin periods continue to be good investment opportunities over a longterm horizon.
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
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21. Real Estate Outlook
Asset Classes
Tier I
Tier II
Retail
Capital values as well as lease rentals continue to be stagnant.
The effects of the change in FDI policy to allow 51% foreign
ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand retail
are yet to have any effect of the market for retails assets.
Developers continue to defer the construction costs as
absorption continues to be low unsold inventory levels high.
Land
Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I
cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and other Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth
infrastructure developments present good investment corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low
opportunities. Caution should however be exercised due to the investment base in such areas.
complexities typically involved in land investments.
Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared to
mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these rentals
gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant.
The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the Tier-2
cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this phenomenon
can be known with more certainty once the effect of FDI is more
visible in Tier I cities.
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
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22. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Capital Ltd. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon
sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information
and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be
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