The weekly update for September 9, 2013, highlights a return to risk-on sentiment in global markets despite rising fixed-income rates, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield nearing 3%. Global equities, particularly in emerging markets, showed significant gains, while various economic indicators in the U.S. met or exceeded expectations. However, commodities continue to face long-term downtrends despite recent price increases, particularly in gold and crude oil.

1. Weekly Chart Book
September 9, 2013
Global Clients…Global Portfolios

2. 2
Accuvest Weekly Update
Global Financial Conditions
• Following the volatility we experienced in August, markets resumed their risk-on spirits this week. It was a bit rockier for fixed income as
rates ended the week higher, with the U.S. 10yr yield approaching the symbolic 3% milestone for the first time since July 2011.
• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased, but remain at moderate levels
• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 15.85, down from 17.01 last week
• This week – Equities and Oil rallied, while Treasuries, IG Bonds, and the Yen struggled
Global Equity Markets
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 5.1% this week, and is now back above its 50Day MA
• The S&P 500 was up 1.5% this week, but remains below its 50 Day MA
• The MSCI All Country World Index rallied 2.4% this week, but remains below May and July 2013 highs
• Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary lead Global Sectors year-to-date
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.93%, up from 2.78% last week
• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.63% at the end of Q3 2013
• Investment Grade Bonds sold off 1.4% this week. They have failed to break above the 50DMA three times and are testing support
• High Yield Bonds sold off 0.3% this week, and are now below the 50DMA and the 200DMA
• Emerging Market Bonds appear oversold, while EM Debt spreads remain near 1 year highs
• Mortgage Rates @ 4.83%, down from 4.92% last week

3. 3
Accuvest Weekly Update
The Economy
• Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market highlight the US Economy
• ADP Employment and Non-farm Payrolls missed expectations this week
• Vehicles Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and Initial Jobless Claims met or exceeded expectations
• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on Mortgage Apps, PPI, and Retail Sales
Major Currencies
• Only the Pound, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
• The Brazilian Real and Aussie Dollar have both depreciated more than 10% vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
• The Mexican Peso (+4.5%) and Norwegian Krone(+0.82%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013
• The Swiss Franc(-4.3%) and Japanese Yen(-3.8%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013
• MXN/USD @ 13.16, strengthening from 13.38 last week and backing away from 1 year highs
Commodities
• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) have shown recent relative strength, but they remain in a 5 year down trend
• Gold @ $1392/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th, and backing away from recent highs of $1433/oz.
• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio has broken to the downside, but bounced off of 200DMA
• Crude Oil @ $110.53, up from $107.65/barrel last week and now above resistance @ $108/barrel
• Copper @ $325.80/lb., backing away from 6 month highs, but up from $322.50/lb. last week
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly
informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with
respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to
arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced
from Bloomberg.

4. 4
US Financial Conditions

5. 5
Developed Markets

6. 6
Emerging Markets

7. 7
The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

8. 8
Global Financial Stress Index

9. 9
Citi Macro Risk Index

10. 10
US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

11. 11
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

12. 12
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

13. 13
Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

14. 14
Investment Grade Bond Prices

15. 15
Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

16. 16
High Yield Bond Prices

17. 17
High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

18. 18
Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

19. 19
Emerging Market Bond Spreads

20. 20
World Equity Indices

21. 21
MSCI All Country World Index

22. 22
S&P 500 Index

23. 23
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

24. 24
MSCI Emerging Markets Index

25. 25
AGO Constituents – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

26. 26
Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

27. 27
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

28. 28
ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

29. 29
Last week’s Economic Calendar

30. 30
Next week’s Economic Calendar

31. 31
Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

32. 32
Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

33. 33
Case Schiller Composite 20 City Home Price Index – YoY

34. 34
30 Year Mortgage Rates

35. 35
US Personal Income – YoY Growth

36. 36
Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average

37. 37
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

38. 38
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

39. 39
US Dollar Index

40. 40
Japanese Yen ¥

41. 41
Euro €

42. 42
Mexican Peso

43. 43
Emerging Market Currencies

44. 44
Global Commodity Prices

45. 45
Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

46. 46
Gold Prices – 5 Years

47. 47
Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 5 Years

48. 48
Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

49. 49
Copper Prices – 5 Years

50. 50
Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)

51. 51
S&P500 vs. Copper (HG1) – 5 Years