Union Budget 2023 by Nirmala Sitharaman brings new opportunities for the Indian economy with changes in direct tax and new policy updates with other industrial impacts. Read more at Deloitte India. Download PDF.
The document provides an outlook on the Indian market for March 2021. It discusses factors that supported global equity performance in February such as hopes of economic recovery due to increasing vaccination rates. It also mentions that rising US bond yields led to some market corrections last week of February. The document then provides analysis on various economies and sectors, earnings updates, valuation analysis, and investment ideas with rationale. It concludes with mentioning some key risks like rising crude oil prices and surge in COVID cases.
• Interbank call money rates remained mostly below the RBI’s repo rate of 4% in June as overall systemic liquidity remained surplus.
• Currency in circulation rose 20.6% on-year in the week ended June 19, 2020, compared with 12.7% growth a year ago. The RBI, via its liquidity window, absorbed Rs 3770.33 billion on a net daily average basis in June 2020, compared with net liquidity absorption of Rs 5114.71 billion in May 2020.
• Bank credit growth rose 6.2% on-year in the fortnight ended June 5, 2020, compared with 6.5% on-year growth reported in the fortnight ended May 8, 2020.
Can The Economy Cope With Higher Interest Rates In 2024?Results
The latest Investing and Finance Report from Morningstar for Q1 2024 and onwards.
Complete with Updated graphs and charts.
a) Forecast Update
b) Economic Overview
c) Consumer spending
d) Investing
e) Labor
f) Inflation
g) Monetary, Fiscal & Financial
h) Appendix
U.S. Economic Outlook Q1 2024.
Morningstar
We remain positive on the bond markets. A good strategy may be to create a portfolio with maturity in the range of 2-5 years along with accumulating spread assets to give better carry to the portfolio. Read our Fixed Income Update for Aug 2020
Indonesia 2023 Macro Outlook (10-05-2023)Harry Purdie
The document summarizes the economic outlook for Indonesia in 2023. Key points include:
- Inflation has moderated, allowing the central bank to adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance with no further interest rate hikes expected.
- Economic growth is projected at 4.5-5.3% in 2023, driven by private consumption, investment, and trade.
- The current account surplus supporting the Rupiah currency is expected to narrow as commodity export growth weakens, posing a risk.
- Barring deterioration in growth or currency stability, the central bank may begin cutting rates in the third quarter to support the economy.
Interbank call money rates remained mostly below the RBI‟s repo rate of 4% in May owing to comfortable liquidity in the system. However, some pressure was seen on the rates following intermittent spike in demand for funds from banks.
Currency in circulation rose 18.4% on-year in the week ended May 22, 2020, compared with 14.2% growth a year ago. The RBI, via its liquidity window, absorbed Rs 5114.71 billion on a net daily average basis in May 2020, compared with net liquidity absorption of Rs 4751.55 billion in April 2020.
Bank credit growth rose 6.5% on-year in the fortnight ended May 8, 2020, compared with 7.2% on-year growth reported in the fortnight ended April 10, 2020.
The document provides an overview of the Indian and global macroeconomic environment and financial markets for the week of August 04-09, 2014. Some of the key points summarized are:
- The RBI reduced statutory liquidity ratio requirements, adding Rs. 40,000 crores in liquidity, while keeping interest rates unchanged. Bond yields have cooled off as a result.
- Inflation has been trending downward, but food and vegetable prices remain high. The RBI governor has reiterated the targets of reducing CPI to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
- Fiscal deficit is projected to be 4.5% of GDP for the current year versus the target of 4
Union Budget 2023 by Nirmala Sitharaman brings new opportunities for the Indian economy with changes in direct tax and new policy updates with other industrial impacts. Read more at Deloitte India. Download PDF.
The document provides an outlook on the Indian market for March 2021. It discusses factors that supported global equity performance in February such as hopes of economic recovery due to increasing vaccination rates. It also mentions that rising US bond yields led to some market corrections last week of February. The document then provides analysis on various economies and sectors, earnings updates, valuation analysis, and investment ideas with rationale. It concludes with mentioning some key risks like rising crude oil prices and surge in COVID cases.
• Interbank call money rates remained mostly below the RBI’s repo rate of 4% in June as overall systemic liquidity remained surplus.
• Currency in circulation rose 20.6% on-year in the week ended June 19, 2020, compared with 12.7% growth a year ago. The RBI, via its liquidity window, absorbed Rs 3770.33 billion on a net daily average basis in June 2020, compared with net liquidity absorption of Rs 5114.71 billion in May 2020.
• Bank credit growth rose 6.2% on-year in the fortnight ended June 5, 2020, compared with 6.5% on-year growth reported in the fortnight ended May 8, 2020.
Can The Economy Cope With Higher Interest Rates In 2024?Results
The latest Investing and Finance Report from Morningstar for Q1 2024 and onwards.
Complete with Updated graphs and charts.
a) Forecast Update
b) Economic Overview
c) Consumer spending
d) Investing
e) Labor
f) Inflation
g) Monetary, Fiscal & Financial
h) Appendix
U.S. Economic Outlook Q1 2024.
Morningstar
We remain positive on the bond markets. A good strategy may be to create a portfolio with maturity in the range of 2-5 years along with accumulating spread assets to give better carry to the portfolio. Read our Fixed Income Update for Aug 2020
Indonesia 2023 Macro Outlook (10-05-2023)Harry Purdie
The document summarizes the economic outlook for Indonesia in 2023. Key points include:
- Inflation has moderated, allowing the central bank to adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance with no further interest rate hikes expected.
- Economic growth is projected at 4.5-5.3% in 2023, driven by private consumption, investment, and trade.
- The current account surplus supporting the Rupiah currency is expected to narrow as commodity export growth weakens, posing a risk.
- Barring deterioration in growth or currency stability, the central bank may begin cutting rates in the third quarter to support the economy.
Interbank call money rates remained mostly below the RBI‟s repo rate of 4% in May owing to comfortable liquidity in the system. However, some pressure was seen on the rates following intermittent spike in demand for funds from banks.
Currency in circulation rose 18.4% on-year in the week ended May 22, 2020, compared with 14.2% growth a year ago. The RBI, via its liquidity window, absorbed Rs 5114.71 billion on a net daily average basis in May 2020, compared with net liquidity absorption of Rs 4751.55 billion in April 2020.
Bank credit growth rose 6.5% on-year in the fortnight ended May 8, 2020, compared with 7.2% on-year growth reported in the fortnight ended April 10, 2020.
The document provides an overview of the Indian and global macroeconomic environment and financial markets for the week of August 04-09, 2014. Some of the key points summarized are:
- The RBI reduced statutory liquidity ratio requirements, adding Rs. 40,000 crores in liquidity, while keeping interest rates unchanged. Bond yields have cooled off as a result.
- Inflation has been trending downward, but food and vegetable prices remain high. The RBI governor has reiterated the targets of reducing CPI to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
- Fiscal deficit is projected to be 4.5% of GDP for the current year versus the target of 4
Callan develops long-term capital market projections annually to guide strategic planning over 10+ years. For the US, they project GDP growth of 2-2.5% annually, inflation of 2-2.5%, and returns of 6.85% with 18.25% risk for broad US equity and 3% return with 3.75% risk for US fixed income. For non-US developed markets, they project GDP growth of 1.5-2%, inflation of 1.75-2.25%, and returns of 7% with 21% risk for global ex-US equity. Emerging markets are projected to grow 4-5% annually.
A Deep Dive into the Indian Union Budget 2022aakash malhotra
What does the Union Budget 2022 mean for the Indian economy? Explore all the major announcements made by the Indian Finance Minister surrounding economic indicators, direct taxes, existing policies, indirect taxes and major industries. A detailed analysis by Deloitte experts. Everything you need to know in one place.
Weekly Media Update - December 26, 2023 - Balmer LawrieBalmerLawrie
This document provides a weekly media update comprising news related to the Indian economy from various sources. Key highlights include:
1) Domestic rating agency Icra revised India's FY24 GDP growth forecast upwards to 6.5% from 6.2% previously.
2) The IMF projected India's economy to grow at 6.3% in the current fiscal year and the next, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability.
3) Leading credit rating firm Fitch Ratings expects India's resilient economic growth will boost corporate demand. Several sectors are expected to see strong demand.
4) Parliament approved additional spending of Rs. 58,378 crore in the current fiscal to support programs like M
- Global equity markets saw sharp corrections in January led by a steep fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty breached 7500 support level touching a 52-week low.
- Third quarter Indian company results were mixed, with some benefiting from lower commodities while banks may need more time to recover.
- The budget will be a key upcoming event, with the government expected to focus on rural spending, manufacturing, and fiscal reforms.
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
Statement of the monetary policy committee november 2021Preggie Moodley
The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank increased the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in response to rising inflation risks. While South Africa's economy grew strongly in the first half of 2021, growth is expected to slow in the second half due to the July unrest and other factors. Inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were revised upwards due to higher fuel, food and electricity prices. The risks to the inflation outlook are assessed as upside, though inflation is expected to remain close to the mid-point target over the medium term. Policy decisions will continue to be data-dependent and sensitive to risks in the uncertain economic environment.
The RBI recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling a change in its tight monetary policy. While lower rates will benefit many sectors, the RBI governor warned against expecting immediate further cuts until inflation decreases significantly. Last week, markets were flat with some volatility, and key company results like HDFC Bank met expectations while RIL profits declined. This week, markets will watch the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for any signs of further quantitative easing measures. European debt issues also remain a key uncertainty.
The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, a larger cut than expected. The RBI reiterated that it would remain in accommodative mode beyond this cut. It also lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.4% due to slowing investment and trade. The author maintains a positive outlook on duration portfolios and expects government initiatives and weakness in commodities to lead to further easing in market yields over time.
The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged to address inflation risks and the current account deficit given the rupee's sharp depreciation from reversal of foreign institutional investment debt inflows on expectations of reduced US stimulus.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document provides an analysis of the Indian power sector. It notes that the power sector is one of the largest and most important industries in India. The power sector fulfills the energy requirements of other industries and is critical to economic growth. The document summarizes the sources of power generation in India, with thermal power making up the majority at 83% and sourced primarily from coal. Hydro and nuclear power are also discussed as other sources of generation. Public sector entities have the largest share of installed power capacity in India at over 75%.
Interbank call money rates remained below the RBI’s repo rate of 6.50% during most of the month. Sporadic tightness in systemic liquidity prompted the central bank to conduct regular repo auctions and keep call rates in check. The RBI also conducted reverse repo auctions to prevent the rates from dipping too low and to provide banks with opportunities to park idle funds.
Currency in circulation rose 19.1% on-year in the wee
INTRODUCTION Incorporated in August 1994 Currently has an nationwide network of 2,544 Branches and 9,709 ATM's in 1,399 Indian towns and cities. first to receive an 'in principle' approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set up a bank in the private sector “Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited”
Positive Macro indicators are turning better. Falling commodity prices are positive for the Indian economy and are likely to benefit India's twin deficits and its long battle against inflation. With the investment climate improving, the investment cycle is likely to pick up slowly. India remains one market with a better outlook among emerging markets. For long-term, Indian Equities looks good.
- The document provides an economic outlook and recommendations for a moderately conservative investment portfolio for client Jordan Belfort.
- It analyzes factors like GDP growth, unemployment, consumer confidence, housing, and jobless claims to predict continued slow economic recovery in the US and globally over the next few years.
- Based on this outlook, it recommends a portfolio allocation of 20% equities, 35% bonds, 40% mutual funds and ETFs, and 5% cash, with overweight positions in dividend-paying equities and investment-grade corporate debt.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
The global economic outlook has weakened, with growth forecasts for many of South Africa's major export markets being revised downwards. Challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine, such as high inflation, interest rate hikes, and disruptions to gas supplies in Europe, are expected to constrain growth over the next year. While global growth is projected to pick up again in 2024, it will likely remain below pre-pandemic levels. This tougher external environment, combined with domestic issues like power outages, pose downside risks to South Africa's economic growth prospects in 2023."
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Callan develops long-term capital market projections annually to guide strategic planning over 10+ years. For the US, they project GDP growth of 2-2.5% annually, inflation of 2-2.5%, and returns of 6.85% with 18.25% risk for broad US equity and 3% return with 3.75% risk for US fixed income. For non-US developed markets, they project GDP growth of 1.5-2%, inflation of 1.75-2.25%, and returns of 7% with 21% risk for global ex-US equity. Emerging markets are projected to grow 4-5% annually.
A Deep Dive into the Indian Union Budget 2022aakash malhotra
What does the Union Budget 2022 mean for the Indian economy? Explore all the major announcements made by the Indian Finance Minister surrounding economic indicators, direct taxes, existing policies, indirect taxes and major industries. A detailed analysis by Deloitte experts. Everything you need to know in one place.
Weekly Media Update - December 26, 2023 - Balmer LawrieBalmerLawrie
This document provides a weekly media update comprising news related to the Indian economy from various sources. Key highlights include:
1) Domestic rating agency Icra revised India's FY24 GDP growth forecast upwards to 6.5% from 6.2% previously.
2) The IMF projected India's economy to grow at 6.3% in the current fiscal year and the next, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability.
3) Leading credit rating firm Fitch Ratings expects India's resilient economic growth will boost corporate demand. Several sectors are expected to see strong demand.
4) Parliament approved additional spending of Rs. 58,378 crore in the current fiscal to support programs like M
- Global equity markets saw sharp corrections in January led by a steep fall in crude oil prices. The Nifty breached 7500 support level touching a 52-week low.
- Third quarter Indian company results were mixed, with some benefiting from lower commodities while banks may need more time to recover.
- The budget will be a key upcoming event, with the government expected to focus on rural spending, manufacturing, and fiscal reforms.
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
Statement of the monetary policy committee november 2021Preggie Moodley
The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank increased the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in response to rising inflation risks. While South Africa's economy grew strongly in the first half of 2021, growth is expected to slow in the second half due to the July unrest and other factors. Inflation forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were revised upwards due to higher fuel, food and electricity prices. The risks to the inflation outlook are assessed as upside, though inflation is expected to remain close to the mid-point target over the medium term. Policy decisions will continue to be data-dependent and sensitive to risks in the uncertain economic environment.
The RBI recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling a change in its tight monetary policy. While lower rates will benefit many sectors, the RBI governor warned against expecting immediate further cuts until inflation decreases significantly. Last week, markets were flat with some volatility, and key company results like HDFC Bank met expectations while RIL profits declined. This week, markets will watch the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for any signs of further quantitative easing measures. European debt issues also remain a key uncertainty.
The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, a larger cut than expected. The RBI reiterated that it would remain in accommodative mode beyond this cut. It also lowered its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.4% due to slowing investment and trade. The author maintains a positive outlook on duration portfolios and expects government initiatives and weakness in commodities to lead to further easing in market yields over time.
The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged to address inflation risks and the current account deficit given the rupee's sharp depreciation from reversal of foreign institutional investment debt inflows on expectations of reduced US stimulus.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document provides an analysis of the Indian power sector. It notes that the power sector is one of the largest and most important industries in India. The power sector fulfills the energy requirements of other industries and is critical to economic growth. The document summarizes the sources of power generation in India, with thermal power making up the majority at 83% and sourced primarily from coal. Hydro and nuclear power are also discussed as other sources of generation. Public sector entities have the largest share of installed power capacity in India at over 75%.
Interbank call money rates remained below the RBI’s repo rate of 6.50% during most of the month. Sporadic tightness in systemic liquidity prompted the central bank to conduct regular repo auctions and keep call rates in check. The RBI also conducted reverse repo auctions to prevent the rates from dipping too low and to provide banks with opportunities to park idle funds.
Currency in circulation rose 19.1% on-year in the wee
INTRODUCTION Incorporated in August 1994 Currently has an nationwide network of 2,544 Branches and 9,709 ATM's in 1,399 Indian towns and cities. first to receive an 'in principle' approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to set up a bank in the private sector “Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited”
Positive Macro indicators are turning better. Falling commodity prices are positive for the Indian economy and are likely to benefit India's twin deficits and its long battle against inflation. With the investment climate improving, the investment cycle is likely to pick up slowly. India remains one market with a better outlook among emerging markets. For long-term, Indian Equities looks good.
- The document provides an economic outlook and recommendations for a moderately conservative investment portfolio for client Jordan Belfort.
- It analyzes factors like GDP growth, unemployment, consumer confidence, housing, and jobless claims to predict continued slow economic recovery in the US and globally over the next few years.
- Based on this outlook, it recommends a portfolio allocation of 20% equities, 35% bonds, 40% mutual funds and ETFs, and 5% cash, with overweight positions in dividend-paying equities and investment-grade corporate debt.
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
The global economic outlook has weakened, with growth forecasts for many of South Africa's major export markets being revised downwards. Challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine, such as high inflation, interest rate hikes, and disruptions to gas supplies in Europe, are expected to constrain growth over the next year. While global growth is projected to pick up again in 2024, it will likely remain below pre-pandemic levels. This tougher external environment, combined with domestic issues like power outages, pose downside risks to South Africa's economic growth prospects in 2023."
Similar to Goldamn report on India's economy in 2024 (20)
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
The Impact of Generative AI and 4th Industrial RevolutionPaolo Maresca
This infographic explores the transformative power of Generative AI, a key driver of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Discover how Generative AI is revolutionizing industries, accelerating innovation, and shaping the future of work.
1. Steady growth: In 2024, we expect macro-economic resilience to continue in India
amidst steady growth at 6.3% yoy. The year will likely be a tale of two halves:
Pre-elections, government spending will likely be the growth driver. Post-elections,
we expect investment growth to re-accelerate, especially from the private side.
A floor on core inflation: Repeated supply shocks are likely to keep headline
inflation above target at 5.1% yoy (average) in 2024. We expect government
intervention to keep a lid on food inflation, where possible, in an election year. We
expect core inflation to only decline to 4.5% yoy (average) in 2024 from an estimated
5.1% in 2023 given food and oil supply shocks and a steady growth outlook.
A “hawkish hold” in a “higher for longer” world: Somewhat elevated inflation
relative to target will limit the room for monetary easing — we forecast the RBI to
stay on hold until Q4 2024 and then cut only 50bp cumulatively by early 2025. The
“higher-for-longer” global scenario and elevated inflation domestically will mean
continued hawkish guidance and tight banking system liquidity from the RBI.
Low external vulnerability: Higher oil prices, slower growth in trading partners,
and steady domestic growth is likely to increase the current account deficit by 60bp
to 1.9% of GDP in 2024. While services exports have peaked (as a share of GDP) in
our view, they will continue to cushion a wide goods trade deficit in 2024. Foreign
portfolio inflows from India’s inclusion in a global bond index should help fund the
current account deficit.
INR: A port of calm: Nearly $600bn of FX reserves should continue to allow the RBI
to intervene promptly and keep the USD/INR stable. We expect the USD/INR to
hover around 83.0 – 84.0 over the next 3-6 months, and expect it to appreciate
slightly to 82.0 over 12 months, driven by our US economics/FX research
colleagues’ expectation of Fed cuts beginning in Q4 2024 and a softer broad USD by
then.
Santanu Sengupta
+91(22)6616-9042 |
santanu.sengupta@gs.com
Goldman Sachs India SPL
Arjun Varma
+91(22)6616-9043 |
arjun.varma@gs.com
Goldman Sachs India SPL
Andrew Tilton
+852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
India 2024 Outlook
Port of calm in a “Higher for Longer” world
14 November 2023 | 6:19PM IST
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published 14 November, 2023 [20 pgs]
2. Steady growth, sustained macro-economic resilience with a higher
neutral rate
Over the last two years, Indian policymakers deftly managed a difficult combination of
multiple commodity (food and oil) supply shocks and high Fed funds rate. They did so
through a combination of monetary tightening, using fiscal policy to absorb some supply
shocks, and judicious use of FX reserves to maintain a stable currency. Amidst some
fiscal consolidation targeted in FY2023-24 (April 2023 to March 2024), the government
re-allocated spending towards capex by cutting subsidies, and services growth in India
continued to boom with services exports and remittance inflows providing cushion to
the current account deficit.
We expect much of the same to continue in 2024. We expect real GDP growth in India
to remain stable at 6.3% yoy (Exhibit 1), from our estimate of 6.4% growth in 2023, but
it is likely to be a tale of two halves. Subsidies and transfer payments as we head into
the general elections in Q2 2024 will likely be the growth driver in the first half.
Post-elections, we expect investment growth to re-accelerate, especially from the
private side. While we expect the government to continue its focus on capital spending,
given the medium-term fiscal consolidation path, the rate of growth in capex will likely
decrease from next fiscal year. Risks around the growth outlook are evenly balanced in
our view with the main domestic risk emanating from political uncertainty with elections
approaching in Q2 2024.
Repeated supply shocks along with stable growth are likely to keep inflation above the
central point of the RBI’s target of 4.0% in 2024. We forecast headline CPI inflation to
decline to 5.1% yoy (average) in 2024 (Exhibit 2), above the RBI’s and consensus
forecast of 4.7% yoy, from an estimated 5.7% in 2023. We expect the government to
intervene through subsidies or other measures to keep a lid on food prices in an
election year. While core goods inflation declined in line with our expectation in 2023,
the decline in core services inflation took us by surprise, especially given resilient
growth. Going forward we expect core inflation to decline to 4.5% yoy (average) in 2024
from an estimated 5.1% in 2023.
Exhibit 1: We expect the Indian economy to grow at 6.3% yoy in CY24
2022 2023F 2024F 2023 2024F 2025F
Real GDP % yoy 6.7 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.2 6.5
Private consumer expenditure % yoy 8.1 5.4 6.5 7.5 7.0 5.5
Gross fixed investment % yoy 10.3 8.2 6.2 11.4 6.4 7.5
Inflation
CPI inflation % yoy 6.7 5.7 5.1 6.7 5.6 4.9
Core CPI inflation^ % yoy 6.1 5.1 4.5 6.1 4.6 4.6
Core ex PDGS^^ % yoy 6.1 5.1 4.5 6.1 4.6 4.6
External
Current account % of GDP -2.5 -1.3 -1.9 -2.2 -1.5 -2.1
Other
Repo Rate^^^ end of period, % 6.25 6.50 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.00
USD/INR end of period, level 83.0 83.0 82.0 82.2 84.0 81.9
Central Govt Fiscal Deficit % of GDP -6.4 -5.9 -5.4
^Core CPI inflation is Headline excluding food, fuel and light inflation
^^Core ex PDGS is Core CPI inflation excluding petrol, diesel, gold and silver.
*Fiscal Year 2024 refers to April 2023 to March 2024
Calendar Year
^^^We expect a 25bp cut each in Q4 CY 2024 and Q1 CY 2025 taking the repo rate to 6.0%.
Fiscal Year*
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 2
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
3. Somewhat elevated inflation relative to target will limit the room for monetary easing in
our view — we forecast the RBI to cut only 50bp to 6.00% by early 2025 (25bp each in
Q4 2024 and Q1 2025) (Exhibit 2). Our US economics team forecast the easing cycle to
start in Q4 2024, and forecast a higher neutral rate for the Fed at 3.50 – 3.75%, above
the central bank’s current estimates of long-run sustainable levels. The
“higher-for-longer” global scenario and elevated inflation domestically will mean
continued hawkish guidance and tight banking system liquidity from the RBI until the
MPC feels confident about inflation aligning with the 4.0% target.
Exhibit 2: Inflation has most likely peaked, but we forecast a long
pause from the RBI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Headline CPI (yoy)
Core CPI (yoy)
policy repo rate
Percent Percent
Core Inflation means headline inflation excluding Food, Fuel & Light inflation. *Shaded area
denotes the official inflation target of 4%+/-2%
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Our commodity strategists expect oil prices to rise to $92/bbl in 2024 vs. $83/bbl in
2023 (YTD average). This, along with a mild growth slowdown among India’s export
partners, and relatively resilient domestic growth is likely to increase the current account
deficit to 1.9% of GDP ($ 75bn) in 2024 vs. 1.3% of GDP ($ 45bn) in 2023. While
services net exports have peaked (as a share of GDP) in our view, it will continue to
cushion a wide goods trade deficit in 2024 (Exhibit 3).
Macro-economic resilience in recent years aided India’s inclusion in the JPM GBI-EM
Global Diversified Index (beginning June 2024), and could prompt passive inflows of
around USD 25-30bn over the scale-in period. With India benefiting from regional supply
chain diversification, we expect continued direct investment inflows, although capital
inflows will likely remain muted globally in a high interest-rate environment. Overall, we
think the current account deficit should be comfortably funded next year.
14 November 2023 3
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
4. Exhibit 3: We forecast current account deficit at 1.9% of GDP in 2024
Forecast
-0.5
-1.5
-2.4
-1.1
1.3
-1.1
-2.5
-1.3
-1.9
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Services Trade Balance Secondary Income
Merchandise Trade Balance Primary Income
Current Account
Percent of GDP Percent of GDP
NOTE:Primary income refers to receipt or payment of income from investments. Secondary
income refers to remittances.
Forecast
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nearly $600bn of FX reserves should continue to allow the RBI to intervene promptly on
both sides in the FX market and keep the USD/INR exchange rate stable. We expect the
USD/INR to hover around 83.0 – 84.0 over the next three-six months, and expect it to
appreciate slightly to 82.0 over a 12-month horizon. This is driven by our global FX
team’s expectation of a softer broad USD by then, should the Fed start the easing cycle
by Q4 2024, as our US economics team expects.
Growth: From government to private sector
Consumption: Driven by subsidies around elections
Real private consumption growth going into the general elections has been mixed
(Exhibit 4), with the growth rate generally rising a year before elections but falling
subsequently as we approached the election date. Post the general elections,
consumption growth declined on balance except in 2004.
With the general elections approaching in Q2 2024, we have already seen increased
allocation towards the rural employment program, higher cooking gas subsidies and an
extension of the food subsidy program from the central government, apart from a spate
of fiscal outlays from state governments before the state elections in Nov-Dec 2023.
Going forward in 1H-2024, we expect consumption growth to be driven by subsidies
and transfer payments. Our analysis of spending patterns of the government going into
the last three election cycles are consistent with this view - subsidies increased from
around three quarters before the elections as compared to the expenditure in the same
period in the previous 3 years (Exhibit 5).
14 November 2023 4
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
5. Overall, we expect real consumption growth to average around 9% yoy in 1H 2024
driven by increased subsidies ahead of the elections. In 2H 2024, we expect
Exhibit 4: Consumption growth on balance declined after the
elections except in 2004
Exhibit 5: We have typically seen an increase in subsidy spending
going into the elections
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Range 2004
2009 2014
2019 Current
Percent change qoq sa, relative to
the election quarter
Consumption qoq sa growth
change, relative to election
Percent change qoq sa, relative
to the election quarter
Quarter before/after elections
Note: i) Covid-19 related outliers are removed from the 2019 line, ii) Current line is rebased to 0 in
the current quarter, i.e. June 2023
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2014 2019
Election year
Previous 3 years average
Percent change yoy Percent change yoy
Growth rate is major subsidies 9 months
before the elections
Note: i) For the election in 2009, the growth in the election year spend has been compared
with the growth in spend in 2008 only due to unavailability of past data. ii) For example in
2019, we have taken the growth in the total subsidy spend from October 2018-March 2019 vs
October 2017-March 2018.
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Election season gets underway in India
The election season in India has kicked-off this month with five sub-national elections, culminating with the
national (general) elections scheduled for April-May 2024. The outcomes of these elections will be keenly
watched by investors from the standpoint of economic reforms and/or policy continuity.
Earlier this year, 28 opposition parties came together to form the Indian National Developmental Inclusive
Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) to contest the 2024 elections against the ruling NDA, led by the BJP
. Polls suggest that
I.N.D.I.A.’s position has improved materially over the last year, although the NDA has maintained a
comfortable lead.
Our analysis of margins of victory in the previous two elections reveal that the BJP won more seats with a
closer margin (as calculated by vote share) in 2019 than in 2014 (Exhibit 6), while the INC won a greater
share of the seats with a higher margin in 2019 vs. 2014.
Exhibit 6: The BJP won more seats with a thin margin of 0-5% vote share in 2019 than in 2014
*Note: The NDA alliance in 2024 comprises of 35 parties currently holding 334 seats in the Lok Sabha
41 42
36 33
38 41
33
16
12
8
3
4 4
7
5
7
4
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 >50
BJP (total=303)
Others (total=33)
NDA-2024 seat distribution
by margin in 2019
Number of seats Number of seats
Margin of victory (vote share %)
30
42
53
38
49
31
20
9 6 3
6
5
6
7
4
2
1
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 >50
BJP (total=282)
Others (total=32)
NDA-2024* seat distribution by
margin in 2014
Number of seats Number of seats
Margin of victory (vote share %)
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 5
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
6. consumption growth to slow as the boost from subsidies wanes post general elections
and forecast consumption growth to reduce to around half of 1H growth.
Investment cycle: From government to private
In our earlier analysis we have shown that over the last 25 years, in real terms,
households and private corporations were the main drivers of investment in India and
together accounted for around 75% of overall investment. Public sector investment
accounted for about 25% of GDP as of 2022.
The real investment trend growth uptick in recent years was likely due to an increase in
public capex. The central government increased capex by 33% CAGR over the last three
years to 3.3% of GDP in FY24 (18-year high) from around 1.5% of GDP on average
between FY18 to FY20 (Exhibit 7). Given the fiscal consolidation targets of the central
government we think this growth rate will come off to average around nominal GDP
growth rates or lower going forward.
1
We saw a further deveraging in the overall non-financial sector in FY 2023, but did not show it in the chart
as the sample is restricted to 5296 non-financial sector companies.
Exhibit 7: Central government has increased capex in recent years
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Transfer to States
Other budgetary support
Defence
Railways
Roads and Highways
% of Nominal GDP % of Nominal GDP
NOTE: Years are in fiscal years. FY2024 runs from April 2023 to March 2024. Before FY16,
transfer to states is captured in other budgetary support.
Gross Budgetary
Support for Capital
Spending:
Source: CEIC
We have maintained since last year that the supply side conditions look conducive for an
investment cycle recovery. We remain optimistic that the private investment cycle may
see renewed vigor in 2H-2024 after the election related uncertainty. Separately, as
MNCs re-draw their supply chains for more reliable sourcing and manufacturing, India
presents an attractive opportunity. Over the long term, a large consumer market also
presents a favorable backdrop for the “Make in India” initiative.
Strong private sector balance sheets
Balance sheet stress of Indian corporates has reduced materially, and should set them
up for a capital expenditure cycle going forward. Manufacturing companies have
deleveraged (Exhibit 8) with leverage ratios at a 16-year low, while services companies
have also reduced leverage after a sharp increase post-pandemic. For the overall
corporate sector, leverage is now at a sixteen-year low1
.
Large private and public sector banks have their Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio (Tier 1 ratio)
14 November 2023 6
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
7. well in excess of the 9.5% regulatory norms which has enabled banks to grow balance
sheets as credit demand revived post pandemic (Exhibit 9). We see adequate capital
buffer and enough headroom to start a lending cycle in 2024, as industrial credit demand
grows.
In household investments, real estate constitutes the largest share and a decline in
household investments since 2012 was mainly due to a decline in real estate
investment, which was likely the result of a decline in house price inflation and tighter
credit conditions due to the NBFC crisis2
during that period. With inventory-sales ratio at
the lowest in 13-years (Exhibit 10) and house price inflation starting to increase after a
long period of softness (Exhibit 11), we expect household investments to remain
buoyant over 2024.
Overall, the favorable supply side conditions are likely to aid investment growth over the
next several years. Clearly, the ‘Make in India’ policy if successful provides upside risk
to investment outlook over the medium term. In 1H 2024 we expect investment growth
to slow down to 5.5% of GDP driven by a slowdown in growth in public capex and
subsequently rebound to 7
.2% yoy in 2H 2024 with the election related uncertainty
2
Non-banking financial companies (NBFC). In June 2018, IL&FS defaulted for the first time on repayment of
commercial paper and inter-corporate deposits which led to a series of defaults by other NBFCs.
Exhibit 8: Manufacturing companies have de-leveraged Exhibit 9: Major bank balance sheets are well capitalized
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Non-financial corporates
Manufacturing Companies
Services (other than financial)
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio
NOTE: *Years are in Fiscal year. Fiscal year 2022 refers to April 2021 to March 2022. Debt to
equity ratio is calculated by dividing aggregate debt of companies in the sample by aggregate
shareholder's equity of these companies.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Kotak ICICI HDFC Axis State Bank of
India
Pre-GFC (FY07)
Pre-'taper tantrum' (FY13)
Pre-NPA peak in India (FY17)
Current (4QFY23)
NOTE: Years are in Fiscal year. Fiscal year 2023 refers to April 2022 to March 2023. NPA stands
for non-performing assets. *Tier 1 capital ratio refers to share capital and other core reserves as a
proportion of the risk-weighted assets of a bank, and is used as a fair representation of balance
sheet strength and the ability to cover loan losses.
Percent Percent
Tier 1 Capital Ratio*:
Source: CMIE, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: Inventory to sales ratio the lowest in the last 13 years Exhibit 11: Housing price inflation has bottomed out
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19 Jun-21 Jun-23
Inventory/Sales Ratio
Ratio Ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
RBI's Housing Price Index
Percent change, yoy Percent change, yoy
Housing Prices:
Source: PropEquity, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 7
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
8. behind us.
Inflation: Supply shocks put a floor on core
Headline inflation declined to average 5.7% yoy (GSe) in 2023 from 6.7% in 2022, aided
by lower oil prices and monetary tightening by the RBI. Food inflation remained
relatively muted in the first half of 2023 but witnessed a steep increase in Q3 (Exhibit
12) on the back of uneven monsoons and supply side bottlenecks. This caused headline
inflation to exceed the upper end of the RBI’s target in Q3, even as core inflation
declined, led by core goods inflation as WPI manufacturing inflation declined and core
services inflation also declined led by a decline in housing rent inflation (Exhibit 13).
The government actively intervened (Exhibit 14) with fiscal, tariff and non-tariff
measures to mitigate the impact of high inflation on the consumer:
a) The government amended the export policy to prohibit exports of rice, and stopped
releasing subsidized rice for ethanol production after retail prices increased in June-July.
b) Announced two additional cooking gas subsidies: i) INR 200/cylinder for all users, and
ii) INR 300/cylinder for all users under the existing government cooking gas scheme for
poor women (Ujjwala3
users).
c) The government extended its food subsidy scheme to 813mn beneficiaries beyond its
deadline of 31st December 2022, for five years.
3
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) is a scheme from the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas for
providing LPG connections to women from Below Poverty Line (BPL) households. The scheme was launched
on 1st May 2016 in Uttar Pradesh and as of 1st March 2023 there are around 96mn PMUY beneficiaries
Exhibit 12: Food inflation spiked in Q3 2023 driven by vegetable
prices
Exhibit 13: Core ex PDGS inflation steadily declined in 2023
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Vegetables Cereals
Proteins Spices
Oils and Fats Others
CPI Food
Percentage Points Percentage Points
CPI Food YoY Contributions:
NOTE: Proteins include meat and fish, eggs, milk and pulses.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Headline CPI
Core ex PDGS^
Percent change, yoy
Consumer price Index:
Percent change, yoy
^Core ex PDGS inflation is headline inflation excluding food, fuel, petrol, diesel, gold and
silver inflation. *Shaded area denotes the official inflation target of 4%+/-2%
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 8
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
9. The export ban on rice helped cool prices and improve inventories (Exhibit 15). Going
forward, we see some upside risk to cereals inflation, given the deficient monsoons
this year may impact the winter (Rabi) crop harvest, because of water reservoir levels
being 21% lower in 2023 vs. 2022 and water from reservoirs is used for cultivation of
the winter crop.
Similarly, pulses (legumes) sowing in the summer (Kharif) season was 8% less
compared to last year and is likely to affect production and keep prices elevated. Further,
uneven monsoon distribution has already impacted the arrivals of stocks of onions in
September and October which has led to an increase in onion prices. Putting all this
together we forecast food inflation at 7
.0% yoy in 1H 2024 and expect it to decline to
Exhibit 14: Measures taken by government to tackle inflation
Item Weight in CPI (%) Date Measures
Cereals & products 9.7 November 5, 2023
Extended the food subsidy scheme to 813mn beneficiaries beyond its deadline of 31st December
2022, for five years.
August 9, 2023 Offloaded an additional 2.5mn tons of rice from its stocks to contain prices
August 26, 2023 Imposed 20% export duty on parboiled rice effective till October 15, 2023
August 27, 2023
Restricted exports of certain kind of rice (Basmati) valued below $1200/MT. The government had
earlier also banned export of another variety of rice in July
October 6, 2023 Extended the 20% export duty on parboiled rice to March 31, 2024
October 24, 2023 Lowered the minimum export price for a certain kind of rice (basmati) to USD 950/tonne
Edible Oil 2.9 June 2, 2023 Directed the industry to cut edible oils MRP by INR 8-12 per litre as global prices drop
Tomato 0.6 July 20, 2023 Reduced price of subsidised tomato to INR 70 per kg
August 9, 2023 Offloaded an additional 5mn tons of wheat from its stocks to contain price increases
September 14, 2023
Sets 2000 tonnes as the quantity of wheat that traders, wholesalers and supermarkets can store to
boost supplies in the retail markets
November 9, 2023 Allocated 0.25mn ton of wheat for providing subsidised wheat at INR 21.5/kg
Sugar 1.1 October, 18 2023 Extended sugar export restrictions beyond October 2023
August 29, 2023
Announced a subsidy of INR 200/cylinder of cooking gas to eligible benficiaries under the
government's affordable cooking fuel program for poor women (Ujjwala Yojna)
October 4, 2023
Announced an additional subsidy of INR 100 taking the total subsidy to INR 300 for the eligible
benficiaries under the government's affordable cooking fuel program for poor women (Ujjwala Yojna)
Food
Others
Cooking Gas 1.3
Rice 4.4
Wheat 2.6
Source: News Articles, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 15: Rice stocks have improved in 2023
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Wheat
Rice
Inventories as of September each year
mn ton mn ton
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 9
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
10. 4.2% yoy in 2H 2024. Overall, we forecast food inflation to be at 5.6% yoy in 2024.
Core inflation to decline to 4.5% in 2024
The RBI’s measure of core inflation4
has averaged around 6% yoy (Exhibit 16) in 2022,
and declined to 4.7% yoy in Q3 2023 driven by a decline in both core goods and
services inflation from 7
.2% yoy (2022 average) and 5.1% yoy (2022 average)
respectively to 5.3% yoy and 4.0% yoy in Q3 2023. We expect core goods inflation
to bottom out at 4.5% yoy in Q1 CY24 and increase towards 5.0% yoy by Q4 as WPI
manufacturing inflation has bottomed out (Exhibit 17).
While core goods inflation declined in line with our expectation 2023, the decline in core
services inflation took us by surprise, driven by an unexpected decline in housing
inflation. Going forward we expect core services inflation to inch higher from its current
levels of 3.6% yoy to around 4.5% yoy in 2H 2024.
Putting this together, we forecast overall headline inflation at 5.1% yoy (average) in
CY24 with food inflation at 5.6% yoy, RBI core inflation at 4.5% yoy, and fuel inflation at
5.6% yoy (Exhibit 18).
4
RBI Core inflation: Headline inflation excluding food, fuel and light. Fuel inflation: cooking fuel, gas and
kerosene. RBI core inflation includes petrol and diesel (under transportation inflation).
Exhibit 16: RBI core inflation has declined to around 4.2% Exhibit 17: We expect core goods inflation to inch higher to 5.0% by
the end of CY24 as WPI manufacturing inflation has bottomed out
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Oct-22 Apr-23 Oct-23
Gold and Silver Petrol and Diesel
Core Services Core Goods
RBI Core
Percentage Points Percentage Points
RBI Core^ YoY
Contributions:
NOTE: ^ RBI core inflation refers to headline inflation excluding food, fuel and light, but includes
petrol and diesel (under transportation inflation). Fuel inflation refers to cooking fuel, gas and
kerosene.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
CPI core goods (6m lag)
WPI manufacturing (RHS)
Percent change, yoy Percent change, yoy
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 10
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
11. 5
real policy rate here equals central bank’s nominal policy rate-headline CPI inflation
Exhibit 18: We forecast headline CPI inflation at 5.1% yoy (average) in CY24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CY22Q4 CY23Q1 CY23Q2 CY23Q3 CY23Q4 CY24Q1 CY24Q2 CY24Q3 CY24Q4
Core Goods Core Services
Food Fuel
PDGS Headline
RBI forecast
Percentage points Percentage points
Forecast
NOTE: Shaded area denotes the official inflation target of 4%+/-2%. PDGS refers to petrol, diesel, gold and silver.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monetary policy: “Hawkish Hold” in a “Higher for Longer” world
Somewhat elevated inflation relative to target will limit the room for monetary easing
from the RBI, in our view. Our US economics team forecast the easing cycle to start in
Q4 2024, and forecast a higher neutral rate for the Fed at 3.50 – 3.75%, above the Fed’s
current estimates of long-run sustainable levels. The “higher-for-longer” global scenario
and elevated inflation domestically will mean continued “hawkish guidance” and tight
banking system liquidity from the RBI until the MPC feels confident about inflation
aligning with the 4.0% target. In our base case we don’t see the RBI hiking either - low
external vulnerability and our global view of a dollar peak by 2H 2024 will give the RBI
more degrees of freedom to operate monetary policy without aggravating external risks.
We forecast the easing cycle in India to be in three stages: 1) verbal guidance that
inflation is aligning to the RBI’s target of 4.0% on a sustainable basis, 2) change policy
stance from ‘Removal of Accommodation’ to ‘Neutral’ or ‘Accommodative’ and 3) cut
policy rate from the current level of 6.50% by 25bp. We think that steps 1 and 2 can
happen together or in either order in Q3 or Q4 CY24, and step 3 will likely happen only
by Q4 CY24. Overall we forecast the RBI to cut repo rates by only 50bp to 6.00% by
early 2025 (25bp each in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025). This would leave the real policy rate at
1.3% by Q1 20255
(Exhibit 20).
14 November 2023 11
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
12. Exhibit 19: Stages of monetary policy easing by the RBI
Stage Expected action Likely Timeline
1
Verbal guidance - dovish commentary in policy
statement and/or minutes
Start from Q3/Q4 CY24
2 Liquidity easing Start from Q3/Q4 CY24
3 Policy repo rate cut Q4 CY24
Exhibit 20: We expect the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bp in
December 2024 policy meeting, followed by 25bp in February 2025
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Fitted Taylor rule
Actual
GS Forecast
Percent Percent
RBI policy repo rate:
Shaded area denotes +/- 1 standard deviation bands
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Banking system liquidity is a monetary policy tool
Short-end rates have remained tight with the weighted average call rate (WACR) trading
near the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate which is the upper end of the liquidity
adjustment facility corridor (Exhibit 21). We expect the RBI to keep liquidity tight in-line
with their monetary policy stance of “removal of accommodation” in a world of “Higher
for Longer” rates.
Liquidity distribution in the system has been recently skewed as indicated by elevated
borrowings by some banks from the RBI at the MSF (which is the upper end of the
liquidity adjustment corridor, 25bp above the policy repo rate) while other banks are
parking substantial amounts with the RBI under the standing deposit facility (or SDF
,
which is the lower end of the liquidity adjustment corridor, 25bp below the policy repo
rate).
The RBI has been conducting open market operation (OMO) sales, where the RBI sells
government bonds in the secondary market to manage liquidity. We expect this policy to
continue and this, in our view, will partly offset the incremental demand for bonds from
FIIs due to India’s index inclusion next year.
14 November 2023 12
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
13. The pivot towards subsidies and welfare spending going into the elections is likely to
Exhibit 21: Overnight rates are tight in the banking system
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Nov-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-23
Nov-23
Policy rate
Weighted average call money rate (5 DMA)
Percent
Percent
NOTE: The shaded area represents the policy corridor, where the upper end represents the
MSF and the lower end represents the Reverse Repo or SDF rate. The corridor was increased
during the pandemic. Weighted average call money rate is the effective rate.
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
In the monetary policy easing cycle, as the RBI eases liquidity overnight rates would
first come back from MSF to the policy repo rate, and decline further to the SDF
depending on the quantum of liquidity easing by the RBI. Thus even with only 50bp repo
rate cuts, the RBI would have the option to effectively deliver 100bp of easing (50bp
from repo + 50bp from liquidity easing) if required.
Fiscal policy: Trade-offs and Constraints
As detailed earlier, the government has played an active role in absorbing the food price
shocks on the consumer and at the same time has also been able to sustain capital
expenditure growth at higher levels until now. In addition to the incremental subsidy
costs undertaken by the government this year to help control inflation, the government
in FY24 has already spent around INR 636bn on the rural employment guarantee
program of the available INR 600bn until September. As per our estimates, going by
historical trends, spending on the rural employment guarantee program could cost the
government an additional INR 450bn, taking the total spend on the program to around
0.4% of GDP (Exhibit 22).
Exhibit 22: We estimate spend on subsidies and rural employment
program to increase in FY24 compared to budget estimates
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
Budget
estimates*
MGNREGA
Spending**
Food Petroleum GS Estimates
% of Nominal GDP % of Nominal GDP
Expenditure upside in FY24^ compared to budget estimates
^FY24 runs from April 2023 to March 2024. *GDP for FY24 is as per Budget estimates.
**MGNREGA is a government employment rural program
Major Subsidies
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 13
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
14. continue, though given the fiscal constraints (Exhibit 23) from the stock of debt (India’s
public debt to GDP ratio is above 80%, one of the largest in EM), we don’t expect the
government to increase the fiscal deficit. Thus, we think that a decline in public capital
expenditure (as a % of GDP) will have to share the burden of fiscal consolidation, among
a reduction in other current expenditure. In other words, the growth in government
capex seen in the past few years cannot be sustained going forward, in our view, as we
detailed in our earlier analysis.
External: Low external vulnerability to continue
On the external balances front, slower global economic growth among trading partners
has impacted India’s goods export growth (Exhibit 24) in 2023. The current account
deficit, though, has been cushioned by strong services export growth (Exhibit 25) which
has held up despite weak demand in western economies.
Our commodity strategists expect oil prices to rise to $92/bbl in 2024 vs. $83/bbl in
2023 (YTD average). This, along with a mild growth slowdown among India’s export
partners, and relatively resilient domestic growth, is likely to increase the current
account deficit to 1.9% of GDP ($ 75bn) in 2024 vs. 1.3% of GDP ($ 45bn) in 2023.
While services net exports have peaked (as % of GDP) (Exhibit 25) in our view, they will
Exhibit 23: India a regional and EM outlier on general government deficit
PHP MYR
CNY
INR
IDR
KRW
THB
TWD
HUF
TRY
PLN
CZK
ILS
RUB
RON
ZAR
COP
MXN
BRL
CLP
PEN
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
EM Asia
CEEMEA
LatAm
General
government
fiscal
balance*
(%
of
FY
GDP,
2023)
General government gross debt* (% GDP, 2023)
*General government fiscal balance and general government debt based on October IMF estimations;
China general government balance based on GS estimates of China effective on-budget fiscal balance and government special bond issuance in 2023
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 24: Merchandise exports are weaker than services exports Exhibit 25: Services exports have significantly increased over the
last few years
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Non-oil
Services
Index SA (2019 Average = 100) Index SA (2019 Average = 100)
Exports:
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Software
Business
Transportation
Travel
Others
% of GDP % of GDP
Services Exports:
NOTE: The spike in Q2 CY20 is due to Covid-19 induced contraction in GDP. Break-up of
services exports is available up to Jun 2023.
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 14
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
15. continue to cushion a wide goods trade deficit in 2024.
The RBI has not been shy to use the FX reserves that India accumulated during the
pandemic to carry out FX interventions on both sides and arresting volatility in the INR
(Exhibit 28). It replenished part of the reserves it had lost through most of 2022 by
accumulating reserves from November 2022 to July 2023. India’s spot FX reserves are
currently at $590bn (including SDR and Gold) for the week ending November 3. In our
view, the RBI’s FX market intervention is likely to continue going forward as we expect
it to mop up any balance of payment surpluses and not let the INR materially appreciate
against the dollar.
Exhibit 26: We forecast India’s current account deficit at 1.9% of GDP in CY24
Amount ($ bn) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Current Account -34 -86 -45 -75
(as % of GDP) -1.1 -2.5 -1.3 -1.9
Goods Trade Balance -177 -274 -249 -294
Oil Trade Balance -87 -113 -104 -135
Non-Oil Trade Balance -90 -161 -145 -159
Goods Exports 402 458 428 442
Oil Exports 54 95 87 96
Non-Oil Exports 348 358 339 346
Goods Imports 579 732 677 736
Oil Imports 141 208 191 231
Gold Imports 56 37 42 40
Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports 382 476 440 465
Services Trade Balance 103 133 148 158
Services Exports 241 309 331 354
Services Imports 138 177 183 195
Primary Income -38 -42 -40 -42
Secondary Income 78 97 96 102
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 27: We estimate capital account surplus to more than offset the current account deficit
Amount ($ bn) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Current Account -34 -86 -45 -75
(as % of GDP) -1.1 -2.5 -1.3 -1.9
Goods Trade Balance -177 -274 -249 -294
Services Trade Balance 103 133 148 158
Primary Income -38 -42 -40 -42
Secondary Income 78 97 96 102
Capital Account 100 57 61 79
Foreign direct investment 27 36 19 36
Foreign portfolio flows 6 -19 24 33
Others (incl. Loans, banking capital etc) 67 40 17 10
Overall BoP deficit / surplus 66 -29 16 4
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 15
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
16. Macro-economic resilience in recent years aided India’s inclusion in the JPM GBIM
global bond index (beginning June 2024), and could prompt passive inflows of around
USD 25-30bn over the scale-in period. With India benefiting from regional supply chain
diversification, we expect continued direct investment inflows, although capital inflows
will likely remain muted globally in a high interest-rate environment (Exhibit 30). Higher
US interest rates may also mean less dollar funding by Indian corporates (Exhibit 31).
Despite these headwinds, we think the current account deficit should be comfortably
funded next year given bond inflows.
Forex outlook: USD/INR to stay range bound
Nearly $600bn of FX reserves should continue to allow the RBI to intervene promptly on
both sides in the FX market and keep the USD/INR stable. We expect the USD/INR to
hover around 83.0 – 84.0 over the next three-six months, and expect it to appreciate
slightly to 82.0 over a 12-month horizon. The INR appreciation view over the 12-month
horizon is driven by our global FX team’s expectation of a softer broad USD by then,
should the Fed start the easing cycle by Q4 2024, as our US economics team expects.
Exhibit 28: Forex reserves improved after declining sharply since
last year
Exhibit 29: India has the lowest external debt to GDP among its EM
peers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 Sep-23
Forwards
Spot FX Reserves
Note: i) Latest spot data as of November 3, 2023 ii) Forward FX reserve data as of September
2023.
USD bn USD bn
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Brazil
Mexico
Thailand
Korea
South Africa
Malaysia
Chile
Percentage of GDP
Percentage of GDP
External Debt to GDP
Source: Haver Analytics Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 30: Net FDI has fallen sharply from its 2021 highs Exhibit 31: External commercial borrowings (ECB) maturities are
skewed heavily in Q4 CY23 and Q1 CY24
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
USD bn (LHS)
Percent of Nominal
GDP (RHS)
USD bn Percent
Net Foreign Direct Investment:
Note: i) Years are in Fiscal year. Fiscal year 2024 refers to April 2023 to March 2024. ii) FY24
Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023 2024
USD bn USD bn
Upcoming External
commercial borrowing
(ECB) Expiry*
*Based on monthly data on External commercial borrowing (ECB) applications released by RBI.
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: RBI
14 November 2023 16
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
17. We note that for the INR, although real rate differentials6
(Exhibit 32) are the narrowest
in many years (leaving aside the start of the pandemic period), INR offers the best
carry-to-vol among large EMs (Exhibit 33).
6
Difference between real rates in India and in US, where real rate is the difference between central bank
policy rate and CPI inflation.
Exhibit 32: Real rate differential with the US has declined Exhibit 33: The INR offers the best carry-to-vol versus the USD
among its EM peers
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Real Rate Difference (India-US)
NOTE: Indian real rate = India policy rate - India CPI yoy inflation; US real rate = US Fed funds
rate - US CPI yoy inflation. Real rates difference = Indian real rate - US real rate
Percent Percent
12-month carry to 3-month annualized volatility
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
INR COP MXN BRL HUF RON ZAR PEN IDR CLP PLN PHP CZK
Carry-to-vol Carry-to-vol
12-month carry to 3-month annualized realized volatility versus the USD
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
14 November 2023 17
Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
18. Disclosure Appendix
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Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook
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Goldman Sachs India 2024 Outlook