The document provides a weekly summary of global financial conditions and markets. Some key points include: - Global financial stress increased this week as Treasury yields surged, stocks fell, and metals rallied. - The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average after falling 2.1% for the week. - US economic data is starting to come in slightly worse than expectations, with retail sales, industrial production, and regional manufacturing indexes missing targets. - The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies over the past six months. Gold prices rose above key resistance at $1,340 per ounce.

1. Weekly Chart Book
August 16, 2013
Global Clients…Global Portfolios

2. 2
Accuvest Weekly Update
Global Financial Conditions
• Global Financial Conditions have improved since the “Q.E. Taper Tantrum” in June
• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress increased rather sharply this week
• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 14.37, and is gaining upward momentum
• This week - Treasury yields surged, Stocks fell, and Metals rallied
Global Equity Markets
• The S&P 500 is trading at 16x current earnings, the MSCI ACWI is trading at 15.8x current earnings
• The S&P 500 was down 2.1% this week, and is testing its 50 Day MA
• Post WWII data shows that after gaining 15% through July (12 cases), the S&P 500 has an average loss of -1.54% in August
• The MSCI All Country World Index is losing momentum and failed to break above May 2013 highs
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index has shown improvement, and has broken decisively above its 50DMA
• Gold Miners were up 12.5% on the week, while US REITs were down 6.5% on the week
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.82%, up sharply from 2.58% last week
• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.74% at the end of 2013
• Investment Grade Bonds lost 2.1% this week, but spreads remain narrow @ 1.63%, down from 1.68% last week
• High Yield Bonds sold off -1.1% this week, confirming a lower high as the 50DMA approaches the 200DMA
• High Yield credit spreads narrowed slightly to 3.49%, down from 3.57% last week
• Mortgage Rates, @ 4.67%, have dropped on the month despite the surge in 10 year Treasury Yields

3. 3
Accuvest Weekly Update
The Economy
• US Retail Sales grew +0.2% on the month, missing expectation by 0.1%
• US Industrial Production grew 0.0% on the month, missing expectations by 0.3%
• Philly Fed and Empire Mfg also missed expectations
• Mortgage Applications dropped 4.7% on the month.
• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, Home Prices, and LEI
• US Economic Data is starting to come in slightly worse than expectations
Major Currencies
• All major currencies, except the British Pound, are weaker relative to the USD over the last 6 months
• MXN/USD @ 12.91, weakening from 12.61 last week
• USD/EUR @ 1.333, at the high end of the Year-to-Date range
• USD/AUD @ 0.92, flat on the week, but momentum has improved
• JPY/USD @ 97.53, weakening from 96.21 last week and potentially changing trend, primary resistance @ 103.57
Commodities
• Gold @ $1376/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th, and now above key resistance at $1340/oz..
• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio has broken to the downside, currently at 6 month lows
• Crude Oil @ $107.75, up from $105.97/barrel last week but struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel
• Copper @ $336.00/lb., up from $316.90/lb. last week and rallying sharply towards 6 month highs
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly
informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with
respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to
arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced
from Bloomberg.

4. 4
US Financial Conditions

5. 5
Developed Markets

6. 6
Emerging Markets

7. 7
The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

8. 8
Global Financial Stress Index

9. 9
Citi Macro Risk Index

10. 10
US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

11. 11
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

12. 12
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

13. 13
Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

14. 14
Investment Grade Bond Prices

15. 15
Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

16. 16
High Yield Bond Prices

17. 17
High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

18. 18
30 Year Mortgage Rates

19. 19
World Equity Indices

20. 20
MSCI All Country World Index

21. 21
S&P 500 Index

22. 22
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

23. 23
MSCI Emerging Markets Index

24. 24
AGO Constituents – Japan, USA, Germany, Russia, Netherlands, & Malaysia

25. 25
Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

26. 26
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

27. 27
Last week’s Economic Calendar

28. 28
Next week’s Economic Calendar

29. 29
Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

30. 30
Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

31. 31
Case Schiller Home Prices – 20 City Composite

32. 32
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

33. 33
World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

34. 34
US Dollar Index

35. 35
Japanese Yen ¥

36. 36
Euro €

37. 37
Mexican Peso

38. 38
Australian Dollar

39. 39
Emerging Market Currencies

40. 40
Global Commodity Prices

41. 41
Continuous Commodity Index

42. 42
Gold

43. 43
Gold to Gold Miners Ratio

44. 44
Crude Oil

45. 45
Copper

46. 46
Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)