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Jammu&Kashmir:
TheWayForward
Policy approaches to
manage the aftermath of
revoking Jammu and
Kashmir’s special status.
Prepared by:
Takshashila Geostrategy
Programme
August 2019
2|
Summary To manage the security situation while rebooting economic
and political mechanisms, India’s policy approach should
be:
1. Security: reduce visibility while increasing security over
the near term
2. Economy: build public infrastructure to support private
investment
3. Administration and governance: decentralise and
devolve
4. Politics: return to political normalcy as security
situation improves
5. Employment and entrepreneurship: Remove obstacles to
livelihood and entrepreneurship, invest in relationships,
build social networks
Post Article 370 scenario:
A worsened security situation in
Jammu and Kashmir abetted by
Pakistan, exacerbated by the
absence of legitimate political
channels, a weak economic
infrastructure, and an inadequate
administrative capacity.
This situation is unlikely to
change for the better over the next
two years.
3|
RiskMapA:InternalSecurity
Risks to Internal Security
Immediate
(0-30days)
ShortTerm
(1-6months)
NearTerm
(0.5-2years)
MediumTerm
(2years+)
Civil disobedience: refusal to obey laws of the land
Stone pelting: criminal assault on Indian security forces by
Kashmiri youth
Militancy: use of lethal force against combatants and non-
combatants across India
Terrorism: use or the threat of use of indiscriminate violence in
support of the Kashmiri political cause
Partition violence: violence between the three major social
groupings within the erstwhile J&K
Riots: mob violence against other groups in Kashmir
Anti-Kashmiri violence: mob violence against Kashmiris outside
J&K
Risk assessment:
Very likely
Likely
Less likely
4|
RiskMapB:PakistaniResponse
Risks from Pakistan
Immediate
(0-30days)
ShortTerm
(1-6months)
NearTerm
(0.5-2years)
MediumTerm
(2years+)
Abetment of civil disobedience and violent protests
Support for cross-border terrorism
Resumption of a new insurgency against the Indian State
Diplomatic offensive
Cross-LoC military operations
War
Risk assessment:
Very likely
Likely
Less likely
5|
Domestic Political Risks
Immediate
(0-30days)
ShortTerm
(1-6months)
NearTerm
(0.5-2years)
MediumTerm
(2years+)
No Kashmiri political party will align itself with the Indian cause
Separatists and pro-Pakistan groups are energised
Kashmiri Islamists in Kashmir are energised
Public grievances over AFSPA, torture, unmarked graves etc,
leading to protests
Anti-Kashmiri sentiment deepening the rift between Kashmir and
the rest of India
Human rights violations in response to a violent insurgency
A growing perception in Kashmir concerning demographic
invasion by Rest of India
Lack of a political process on ground
Risk assessment:
Very likely
Likely
Less likely
RiskMapC:DomesticPoliticalResponse
6|
Socioeconomic risks
Immediate
(0-30days)
ShortTerm
(1-6months)
NearTerm
(0.5-2years)
MediumTerm
(2years+)
Youth uninterested in taking up jobs
Underinvestment in agriculture and rural economy as a result of
the political situation
Underperformance of tourism sector
Underinvestment and lack of modernisation of local textiles and
crafts
Underdeveloped infrastructure and connectivityRisk assessment:
Very likely
Likely
Less likely
RiskMapD:SocioeconomicRisks
7|
RiskMapE:AdministrativeRisks
Administrative risk factors
Immediate
(0-30days)
ShortTerm
(1-6months)
NearTerm
(0.5-2years)
MediumTerm
(2years+)
Indian State apparatus missing on ground
Lack of capacity
Underutilisation of funds
Risk assessment:
Very likely
Likely
Less likely
8|
PolicyApproaches Security Policy
Guiding Principle: reduce armed forces visibility while
increasing security over the near term
To counter civil disobedience and stone-pelting, the Union
government should explicitly target a reduction in the
visible presence of armed forces over a two-year timeframe.
This could take the form of:
1. A surgical and “smart” AFSPA. Its provisions can be
limited in time and space. A change in the AFSPA to signal
New Delhi’s bona fides, and invite Kashmiri political leaders
to reciprocate.
2. Marginal, not maximal response. Reverse the damage
done to the morale of the J&K Police and transfer law &
order duties to this force soon. Lift the communications
blockade, and allow public protests and demonstrations to
resume.
9|
PolicyApproaches Socioeconomic Policies
Guiding Principle: build public infrastructure to support
private investment
Previous attempts at economic growth were opposed by
fundamentalists who saw these as attempts to change the
demographic character of the Kashmir valley. The change in
the special status of J&K opens up opportunities in the
economic sphere.
Tourism Investment
Attract investment from
international brands in
large private resorts. This
will help generate
employment. Wular lake
could be made as a water
sports and eco-tourism
centre. This will spread
development outside the
entrenched tourist hubs.
Develop Katra as a
religious retreat
destination.
Create Priority
Development Areas for the
promotion of agri-
processing, premium
bottled water, and premium
handicrafts.
In the Jammu plains, invite
investors in contract
farming. Bring foreign
investment into
horticulture. Commercial
and sustainable forestry is
a big need in J&K. Bringing
in international expertise
in this space would be
great. Kashmir has a
unique vegetation in India.
With a huge young
population, private
education is under
invested. Bringing in
private colleges and
universities from outside
will benefit the education
sector immensely.
Agriculture Education
10|
PolicyApproaches Administration and Governance
Guiding Principle: decentralise and devolve
In the immediate term, a Special Task Force of highly
capable middle level civil servants from across India can be
deputed to J&K for a period of three years to restore broken
governance delivery systems.
Over the medium term, empower panchayati and municipal
institutions. The third level of government is missing in
action in J&K. Financial, economic, and political devolution
to this level is critical to alleviate the perception of an
exploitative State. Currently, the most visible interaction
mechanism between the Indian government and a J&K
citizen is through the armed forces. The frequency of such
interactions need to be displaced by interaction with local
governments.
11|
PolicyApproaches Political Reforms
Guiding Principle: return to political normalcy as security
situation improves
1. Appoint a Lt Governor who has a proven record of
administrative excellence.
2. Develop a strategic communication plan to defeat false
and competing narratives .
3. Conduct local and state elections in the medium term to
restart the political machinery.
4. Revert to a full state under the Republic of India after
announcing elections.
12|
Employment and Entrepreneurship
Guiding Principle: The numbers of insurgents, street
protestors and agitators can be reduced to the extent that
alternative occupations are made more attractive.
1. Quickly build a network of Business Hubs, which are
effectively micro-Special Economic Zones to cut down
the complexity and time required to set-up new
businesses. It is proposed that a number of Business
Hubs be created in urban & semi-urban areas.
2. Micro-skills development activities can be initiated.
Small numbers of people (in the order of a dozen at a
time) can be trained in urban centres, and in the
proposed Business Hubs, with skills required for jobs
that are immediately available.
(contd..)
PolicyApproaches
Economic
Freedom
Social
Capital
Individual
Initiative
Invest in
relationships and
build social networks
Remove obstacles to
livelihood &
entrepreneurship
Encourage individuals
to grow to their full
potential
Intervene
here
13|
Employment and Entrepreneurship Policies
3. Showcase opportunities. Scale up and broaden the
scope of exposing young people in the age group of 14-18
and 18-21 to the rest of India. Several groups of 100
youth could simultaneously be taken on 2-week tours to
other parts of the country.
4. Lend to younger people. Widen the lending to cover
younger entrepreneurs and those engaged in the
proposed Business Hubs.
5. Online social lending. Incentivise companies that
connect lenders to qualified borrowers and play the role
of the financial intermediary. These operate on the web
and build a social connection between borrowers and
lenders. This will enhance social capital not only within
the state, but across whole of India.
PolicyApproaches
Economic
Freedom
Social
Capital
Individual
Initiative
Invest in
relationships and
build social networks
Remove obstacles to
livelihood &
entrepreneurship
Encourage individuals
to grow to their full
potential
Intervene
here

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Jammu and Kashmir: The Way Forward after Article 370

  • 1. Jammu&Kashmir: TheWayForward Policy approaches to manage the aftermath of revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. Prepared by: Takshashila Geostrategy Programme August 2019
  • 2. 2| Summary To manage the security situation while rebooting economic and political mechanisms, India’s policy approach should be: 1. Security: reduce visibility while increasing security over the near term 2. Economy: build public infrastructure to support private investment 3. Administration and governance: decentralise and devolve 4. Politics: return to political normalcy as security situation improves 5. Employment and entrepreneurship: Remove obstacles to livelihood and entrepreneurship, invest in relationships, build social networks Post Article 370 scenario: A worsened security situation in Jammu and Kashmir abetted by Pakistan, exacerbated by the absence of legitimate political channels, a weak economic infrastructure, and an inadequate administrative capacity. This situation is unlikely to change for the better over the next two years.
  • 3. 3| RiskMapA:InternalSecurity Risks to Internal Security Immediate (0-30days) ShortTerm (1-6months) NearTerm (0.5-2years) MediumTerm (2years+) Civil disobedience: refusal to obey laws of the land Stone pelting: criminal assault on Indian security forces by Kashmiri youth Militancy: use of lethal force against combatants and non- combatants across India Terrorism: use or the threat of use of indiscriminate violence in support of the Kashmiri political cause Partition violence: violence between the three major social groupings within the erstwhile J&K Riots: mob violence against other groups in Kashmir Anti-Kashmiri violence: mob violence against Kashmiris outside J&K Risk assessment: Very likely Likely Less likely
  • 4. 4| RiskMapB:PakistaniResponse Risks from Pakistan Immediate (0-30days) ShortTerm (1-6months) NearTerm (0.5-2years) MediumTerm (2years+) Abetment of civil disobedience and violent protests Support for cross-border terrorism Resumption of a new insurgency against the Indian State Diplomatic offensive Cross-LoC military operations War Risk assessment: Very likely Likely Less likely
  • 5. 5| Domestic Political Risks Immediate (0-30days) ShortTerm (1-6months) NearTerm (0.5-2years) MediumTerm (2years+) No Kashmiri political party will align itself with the Indian cause Separatists and pro-Pakistan groups are energised Kashmiri Islamists in Kashmir are energised Public grievances over AFSPA, torture, unmarked graves etc, leading to protests Anti-Kashmiri sentiment deepening the rift between Kashmir and the rest of India Human rights violations in response to a violent insurgency A growing perception in Kashmir concerning demographic invasion by Rest of India Lack of a political process on ground Risk assessment: Very likely Likely Less likely RiskMapC:DomesticPoliticalResponse
  • 6. 6| Socioeconomic risks Immediate (0-30days) ShortTerm (1-6months) NearTerm (0.5-2years) MediumTerm (2years+) Youth uninterested in taking up jobs Underinvestment in agriculture and rural economy as a result of the political situation Underperformance of tourism sector Underinvestment and lack of modernisation of local textiles and crafts Underdeveloped infrastructure and connectivityRisk assessment: Very likely Likely Less likely RiskMapD:SocioeconomicRisks
  • 7. 7| RiskMapE:AdministrativeRisks Administrative risk factors Immediate (0-30days) ShortTerm (1-6months) NearTerm (0.5-2years) MediumTerm (2years+) Indian State apparatus missing on ground Lack of capacity Underutilisation of funds Risk assessment: Very likely Likely Less likely
  • 8. 8| PolicyApproaches Security Policy Guiding Principle: reduce armed forces visibility while increasing security over the near term To counter civil disobedience and stone-pelting, the Union government should explicitly target a reduction in the visible presence of armed forces over a two-year timeframe. This could take the form of: 1. A surgical and “smart” AFSPA. Its provisions can be limited in time and space. A change in the AFSPA to signal New Delhi’s bona fides, and invite Kashmiri political leaders to reciprocate. 2. Marginal, not maximal response. Reverse the damage done to the morale of the J&K Police and transfer law & order duties to this force soon. Lift the communications blockade, and allow public protests and demonstrations to resume.
  • 9. 9| PolicyApproaches Socioeconomic Policies Guiding Principle: build public infrastructure to support private investment Previous attempts at economic growth were opposed by fundamentalists who saw these as attempts to change the demographic character of the Kashmir valley. The change in the special status of J&K opens up opportunities in the economic sphere. Tourism Investment Attract investment from international brands in large private resorts. This will help generate employment. Wular lake could be made as a water sports and eco-tourism centre. This will spread development outside the entrenched tourist hubs. Develop Katra as a religious retreat destination. Create Priority Development Areas for the promotion of agri- processing, premium bottled water, and premium handicrafts. In the Jammu plains, invite investors in contract farming. Bring foreign investment into horticulture. Commercial and sustainable forestry is a big need in J&K. Bringing in international expertise in this space would be great. Kashmir has a unique vegetation in India. With a huge young population, private education is under invested. Bringing in private colleges and universities from outside will benefit the education sector immensely. Agriculture Education
  • 10. 10| PolicyApproaches Administration and Governance Guiding Principle: decentralise and devolve In the immediate term, a Special Task Force of highly capable middle level civil servants from across India can be deputed to J&K for a period of three years to restore broken governance delivery systems. Over the medium term, empower panchayati and municipal institutions. The third level of government is missing in action in J&K. Financial, economic, and political devolution to this level is critical to alleviate the perception of an exploitative State. Currently, the most visible interaction mechanism between the Indian government and a J&K citizen is through the armed forces. The frequency of such interactions need to be displaced by interaction with local governments.
  • 11. 11| PolicyApproaches Political Reforms Guiding Principle: return to political normalcy as security situation improves 1. Appoint a Lt Governor who has a proven record of administrative excellence. 2. Develop a strategic communication plan to defeat false and competing narratives . 3. Conduct local and state elections in the medium term to restart the political machinery. 4. Revert to a full state under the Republic of India after announcing elections.
  • 12. 12| Employment and Entrepreneurship Guiding Principle: The numbers of insurgents, street protestors and agitators can be reduced to the extent that alternative occupations are made more attractive. 1. Quickly build a network of Business Hubs, which are effectively micro-Special Economic Zones to cut down the complexity and time required to set-up new businesses. It is proposed that a number of Business Hubs be created in urban & semi-urban areas. 2. Micro-skills development activities can be initiated. Small numbers of people (in the order of a dozen at a time) can be trained in urban centres, and in the proposed Business Hubs, with skills required for jobs that are immediately available. (contd..) PolicyApproaches Economic Freedom Social Capital Individual Initiative Invest in relationships and build social networks Remove obstacles to livelihood & entrepreneurship Encourage individuals to grow to their full potential Intervene here
  • 13. 13| Employment and Entrepreneurship Policies 3. Showcase opportunities. Scale up and broaden the scope of exposing young people in the age group of 14-18 and 18-21 to the rest of India. Several groups of 100 youth could simultaneously be taken on 2-week tours to other parts of the country. 4. Lend to younger people. Widen the lending to cover younger entrepreneurs and those engaged in the proposed Business Hubs. 5. Online social lending. Incentivise companies that connect lenders to qualified borrowers and play the role of the financial intermediary. These operate on the web and build a social connection between borrowers and lenders. This will enhance social capital not only within the state, but across whole of India. PolicyApproaches Economic Freedom Social Capital Individual Initiative Invest in relationships and build social networks Remove obstacles to livelihood & entrepreneurship Encourage individuals to grow to their full potential Intervene here