he working-hour losses could range between 140 million full-time jobs and 340 million full-time jobs in the last quarter of the year, depending upon the spread of the pandemic. ... However, the PLFS 2017–2018 estimates that 77.1% of employment in India

1. Learning from Pandemic
for Indian Labor Market
SAGNIK SANYAL
STUDENT ID: 1811112034005
DEPARTMENT: ECONOMICS
MENTOR SEMINAR : 4TH SEM

2. Characteristic of Indian
labor market
 Inequality in labor market
 Duality
Percentage distribution of workers by employment status

3. Working population ratios (in per cent) by in
different levels of education
Merely 4.2% of the total workforce(2018-19) had jobs
that offered them the maximum possible protection that
would therefore fit the criteria of what is often described
as a ‘good job’ or ‘decent work’.

4. Source: Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) – Annual Report [July, 2018 – June, 2019]

5. Rates of Return to Education
According to human capital theory, educational attainment increases cognitive
skills and hence improves labor market outcomes, Educated workers are better
able to cope with the disequilibria brought on by events such as economic crises
because they are able to adapt to the changing needs of employers and new
technologies. In addition, educated workers are better able to seek information
about job opportunities.
1. During the recent economic crisis, university educated graduates
enjoyed better prospects in the labor market than those with lower
educational levels in Greece.
2. Research from Thailand in the crisis of the late 1990s indicates that
those with academic secondary education fared better than those
with secondary vocational education because of increased number of
workers with vocational degrees, and a lack of work opportunities
requiring vocational skills during the Asian crisis years.
3. In Argentina, during the volatile periods of 1992-2002, the earnings of
educated workers were less affected by crises than the earnings of
the less educated workers

6. Inequality
low-income workers have been
disproportionally affected by COVID-19.
The crisis is already leading to increased
income inequality according to real time
surveys from the UK, US, Germany,
Japan and Canada. Employees in
Germany, which has a well-established
short-time work scheme, are
substantially less likely to be affected by
the crisis. But in all five countries, the
young, less educated workers, women,
and minorities are more affected by
COVID-19. Poverty rates for those
groups are also likely to spike as the
labor market performance data in the
US and the UK shows a collapse twenty
times faster and much deeper than the
Great Recession.

7. WHAT GOVERNMENT NEED TO DO:
• The crisis is expected to lead to budget cuts, predict massive budget cuts to education. This
will jeopardize the gains we have been making globally in terms of access to education and
in the global effort to improve learning outcomes. The contribution of migrant workers,
both highly skilled and low skilled, has led to India becoming the top recipient of
remittances in the world, with over US$62.7 billion received in 2016 (ILO 2018).
We may also need to think about incentives for students to remain in school, such as
scholarships, conditional cash transfers, and savings programs that encourage study. A lack
of investment in education and training will hurt long-term economic prospects and lead to
short term losses for students, workers and their families.
• In the past, public works programs have successfully kept young people working. Employing
youth during the coronavirus pandemic is a good investment. It helps mitigate the long-term
consequences of COVID-19 for labor productivity. Similarly, it makes sense to consider
innovative programs such as universal basic income. Such programs will help low-income
and less educated workers get the job experience they need, and give them a cushion during
times of unemployment, so that they may also pursue further education and training
• The unusual and unprecedented nature of the crisis means that it is not only the more
educated but also the ones who are in jobs and occupations more amenable to remote work
who fare better. In most cases, it ends up being people with digital skills. The world
economic forum projected demand will increase this year by 16% in data and AI, along
with 12% for engineering and cloud computing skills. Therefore, equipping people with
digital skills has suddenly become a critical need.

8. Policy framework: Four pillars to fight COVID-19 based
on ILS(International Labor Standards)

9. Steps taken by Indian Govt.
 The Union government is planning to give unemployment benefits to a
section of organized workers who may lose their jobs due to the
coronavirus pandemic. The government’s ‘Atal Beema Vyakti Kalyan
Yojana’, which provides unemployment insurance to workers who have
subscribed to the Employees’ State Insurance (ESI) scheme, will cover
such workers during the pandemic.
 The Indian government will make amendments to the Employees’
Provident Funds &Miscellaneous Provisions Act to allow members to
withdraw up to 75 percent of their balance in the fund or three
months’ wages, whichever is lower, as an emergency measure to tide
over any difficulties arising from the coronavirus pandemic.
 Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO), an statutory body
under Union Ministry of Labor & Employment has processed about
1.37 lakh claims across the country disbursing an amount of Rs. 279.65
crore under a new provision especially formulated by amending the
EPF Scheme to help subscribers fight Covid-19.

10.  The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a series of guidelines for
restarting manufacturing industries after the lockdown period. Certain economic activities have
already been allowed on gradual lifting of restrictions in some zones. Instructions have been
issued on safekeeping of hazardous and flammable materials. Guidelines also pertain to chemical
disasters, management of chemical (terrorism) disasters, and strengthening of safety and security
for transportation of Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) tankers.
 Announced rs.1.70 lakh crore package ‘Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Yojana’, targeting 80
crore people affected by lockdown. Under the scheme, for next three months, each person will
get additional 5 kg wheat or rice for free, in addition to 5 kg per month already given under PDS.
One kg of pulses will be provided per household, according to regional preferences.
 The wages of MGNREGA workers has been increased from Rs. 182 to rs.202 per day. This will
benefit 5 crore families, and will result in an additional rs.2,000 given per worker. Social
distancing norms must be followed at MGNREGA worksites during this period.
 Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat package The government will provide loan guarantees worth Rs
4.5 lakh crore to help Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), non-banking financial
companies and power distribution firms access collateral-free loans from banks, collateral-free
loans - also known as unsecured loans - worth Rs 3 lakh crore for MSMEs with turnover up to Rs
100 crore, a move likely to benefit 45 lakh businesses

11. Conclusion
The Trade and Development Report 2020 by U.N. Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD) said that the world economy is experiencing a deep recession
amid a still-unchecked pandemic. India's economy is forecast to contract by 5.9% in
2020. It said the global economy will contract by an estimated 4.3% this year, leaving
global output by year’s end over $6 USD trillion short. As domestic activity contracts, so
goes the international economy; trade will shrink by around one-fifth this year, foreign
direct investment flows by up to 40% and remittances will drop by over $100 billion.
Debt levels across the world, in both the public and private sectors, will have risen
significantly from the historically high levels registered before the crisis. In this condition,
the wrong policy steps — and ignoring the experience of the last decade — could
trigger further shocks which would not only derail recovery but could usher in a lost
decade.
India’s recovery plan must be both bold and comprehensive, built around a
coordinated macroeconomic expansion focused on job creation and higher wages
and supported by a big public investment push into cleaner energy, environmental
protection, sustainable transport systems and the care economy.

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13. Acknowledgement:
Q&A: