Such huge volatility surrounding the dollar and the euro in recent days has meant it has been difficult to trade with any real conviction. With huge fundamental (Non-farm Payrolls), news driven (Greece negotiations) and market driven (bund yield volatility) moves, forex trading has lacked decisive direction. Could this change though this week? With Greece now bundling up its repayments to the IMF to the end of the month, traders can focus elsewhere, perhaps at least for a few days anyway.

1. Weekly Outlook
Forex and CFDs are high risk leveraged products that can result in losses greater than your initial deposit and you should
therefore only speculate with money you can afford to lose. FX and CFD trading are not suitable for everyone. Please
ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such
transactions. You should first carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite and
only invest funds you are prepared to lose entirely. For our full risk warning, please go to the end of this report
8th June 2015 by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Macro Commentary
Such huge volatility surrounding the dollar and the euro in recent days has meant it has been difficult to trade with any
real conviction. With huge fundamental (Non-farm Payrolls), news driven (Greece negotiations) and market driven (bund
yield volatility) moves, forex trading has lacked decisive direction. Could this change though this week? With Greece now
bundling up its repayments to the IMF to the end of the month, traders can focus elsewhere, perhaps at least for a few
days anyway. And with a dearth of key US economic data (as ever in the second week of the month), the legacy of
Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report can be taken on board. The recent uptick in US inflation, alongside a six month high in
Non-farm Payrolls and also better than expected wage growth could begin a new dollar bull run. All these data points will
be music to the ears of the hawks on the FOMC (such as Jeffery Lacker). After weeks of disappointing US data, there is
suddenly a string of positive surprises for the bulls to point to. In the wake of the strong Payrolls report on Friday,
expectations are being reassessed and there is now a 52% chance of a FOMC rate lift off in October. Although Monday
has started with a minor correction, could we be in for some dollar gains in the coming days?
WHEN: Thu, 11th June, 1330BST
LAST: +0.1% (MoM)
FORECAST: +0.7% (MoM)
Impact: If is has been one indicator almost
guaranteed to take the wind out of the strong
dollar in recent months it has been the Retail
Sales. Throughout 2015 expectations have been
missed and the dollar has suffered. The year on
year data shows that retail sales have barely
grown at all and suggests that with consumption c.
70% of he US economy, this is an indicator that
needs to pick up decisively to suggest that there is
depth to an economic recovery. Expectation of
0.7% monthly growth would signify a first year on
year pick up since November. It would add to the
post payrolls bullish outlook for the dollar.
Must watch for: US Retail Sales
Key Economic Releases
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Tue 9th Jun 02:30 China CPI +1.3% +1.5%
Tue 9th Jun 15:00 US JOLTS job openings 5.03m 4.99m
Wed 10th Jun 09:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) +0.6% +0.6%
Wed 10th Jun 15:30 US US oil inventories -1.95m
Wed 10th Jun 10:00 New Zealand RBNZ monetary policy 3.50% 3.50%
Thu 11th Jun 02:30 Australia Unemployment 6.2% 6.2%
Thu 11th Jun 06:30 China Industrial Production +6.0% +5.9%
Thu 11th Jun 13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM ex autos) +0.7% +0.1%
Thu 11th Jun 13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims 277,000 276,000
Fri 12th Jun 15:00 US University of Michigan Sentiment (prelim) 91.5 90.7
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1
US Non-farm Payrolls
N.B. Please note all times are BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters

2. Weekly Outlook
8th June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
The dollar bulls come into the new week on a high after the surprisingly positive Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday. The
jump in payrolls to a six month high along side an uptick in average hourly earnings may still need further confirmation in
July, however after the pick up in core CPI recently, the market will once more be looking at the FOMC meetings in
September and October as potential lift-off dates. With little significant US data until Thursday this could once more drive
a strong dollar. The negative market reaction to Greece putting off its repayments on an IMF technicality is likely to also
help fuel this move. The dollar has already broken out strongly against the yen, and the dollar bulls will be eying some
key levels across the majors this week. The key support on Cable to watch out for is $1.5088 which was a key reaction low
within the bull run higher. The Aussie/Dollar is also close to retesting the crucial support at $0.7530 and with the Kiwi
also having dropped through key support around $0.7200 recently the Aussie will do well to avoid the same fate.
WATCH FOR: The dollar will be running off post-Payrolls sentiment for a couple of days with a lack of key
data in the early part of the week. The big focus will come with US Retail Sales which have been so
disappointing in recent months and hit the dollar hard. Volatility could also be reduced this week without
so much focus on Greece.
EUR/USD
Watch for: Shooting star candle suggests the
euro is under pressure this week
Outlook: Sentiment on the euro has
fluctuated somewhat recently, to say the
least. However the sharp turnaround which
left a high on Thursday at $1.1380 has
changed the outlook to negative for the near
term. With Friday’s strong bearish candle
this puts the bear in control moving into the
new week. The old support around $1.1065
could be pivotal near term though and a
break down could quickly open $1.0900 and
perhaps a retest of the key May low at
$1.0818.
USD/JPY
Watch for: Implied target of 125.70 has been
achieved but the bulls remain in control
Outlook: The breakout above 122.02 implied
an upside target of 125.70 using a range
breakout measurement. This was achieved
in the euphoria of the Payrolls report on
Friday, however there is little to suggest this
should be the end of the run higher.
Momentum indicators are still bullish and
consolidations are being bought into. The
break higher on Friday has also left a strong
150 pip band of support 123.50/125.00 to
work from if there are any early corrections
this week. The trend is your friend for now
on Dollar/Yen with little real resistance the
130 level is not unrealistic if this continues.
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FX Outlook
2

3. Weekly Outlook
8th June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Indices
Even though there was a lot for equity investors to digest on Friday, the market reaction to the strong payrolls report was
still not great and could tell us something about current market psychology. The best payrolls figure in six months and
the equity markets could barely muster any gains, as investors remain concerned by the Fed moving towards tightening.
Outside of earnings season there is little to drive sentiment outside of economic announcements and speculation on Fed
tightening. This suggests that Wall Street may struggle to make gains in the coming days. As bond yields push higher,
equity markets are suffering. With the yields on the US 10 year Treasury pushing higher, Wall Street has been falling, the
same is also happening on the German DAX. A strong Bund yield equates to selling pressure o the DAX. With volatility
remaining high in the bond markets expect more of the same this week. At least the “will they, won’t they?” with regards
to Greece repaying the IMF can be put to bed for a few days at least and this may mean markets settling down a touch (at
least compared to the high volatility of recent days. The FTSE 100 has been under pressure too as the strong dollar has
dragged on commodity prices (oil and metals) which are still 27% of the index.
WATCH FOR: Movement on bond yields to drive sentiment on the equity markets and without any
significant US data until Thursday, the markets could be moving off technicals early in the week. However,
risk appetite could pick up if Chinese data surprises to the upside. Failing that US retail sales are in focus.
DAX Xetra
Watch for: A confirmed break of support at
11,167 opens the February support band
Outlook: The May low at 11,167 was
breached on Friday and although there was
no closing break to confirm the move, the
downside pressure continues early in the
new week. Momentum indicators suggest
this pressure will continue, with RSI, MACD
and Stochastics all falling in negative
configuration. A closing break on 11,167
would be a 15 week low to open a range of
support 10,550/10,985. A 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement support of the 8355/12,389 bull
run is at 10,848.
FTSE 100
Watch for: The close below 6810 has
opened further corrective pressure
Outlook: The first week of sustained selling
pressure for a couple of months has resulted
in a close below the key May low at 6810.
This is now putting pressure on the medium
term outlook which is also being confirmed
by the momentum indicators with the RSI at
a three month low. There is a band of
support 6694/6765 that now needs to hold
to prevent this decline from really taking
hold. There would now need to be a push
back above the resistance band 6875/6900
to abort the near term corrective force.
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INDEX Outlook
3

4. Weekly Outlook
8th June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
The strong payrolls data is driving a stronger US dollar and commodity prices have suffered. Both gold and silver continue
to fall away with gold breaking down below the $1170 support to open $1142, whilst silver continues to retreat back
towards the key pivot band support around $15.50. The OPEC meeting showed that the organisation is still intent on
maintaining production levels and that they expected to meet demand. Although this view was broadly expected this is
still slightly supportive as the risk had been that they may have even officially increased production from 30m barrels to
31m per day. Focus instead will on be on a strengthening US dollar which could drive a lower oil price all on its own.
Utterly incredible volatility in the bond markets resulted in 7 month highs on the 10 year yields of both Treasuries and
Bunds. The bund yield has soared as Eurozone inflation ticked higher than expected, whilst Mario Draghi seemed rather
laissez faire with regard to market volatility. If the German 10 year can hold above 0.800% the outlook will continue to
improve. The Greek yield curve remains sharply inverted as yields spiked again on a missed 5th June repayment deadline.
WATCH FOR: Commodity prices are trading with negative correlation to US dollar so all focus is on US data,
with Retail Sales the key announcement. Volatility in bond markets continue to drive general sentiment.
Gold
Watch for: The confirmed breach of
$1178 now opens $1142
Outlook: With three big bearish candles
there has been a two day close below the
old support at $1178 and also
confirmation with an intraday breach of
$1170. This now completes a downside
break from the 10 week range a test of
the key March low at $1142.90 is now on.
In fact the implied target of the range
break is $1132 which is coincidentally also
the key November 2011 low. Momentum
indicators confirm the break and suggest
rallies this week are a chance to sell.
German 10 year Bund yield
Watch for: If yield builds on 0.800% support
the outlook will continue to improve
Outlook: An incredible week for the bund
yield saw the yield double in the space of
four days as it added over 500 ticks. There is
no real sign that the volatility is calming
down yet and there will continue to be great
focus on the direction of the yield (especially
by euro traders). Technically, the breakout
above 0.800% is the key factor to watch now
and holding above this level will open for a
move back towards a test of the 1.00%
psychological resistance again. The medium
term breakout also implies 1.22%. A break
back below the support at 0.680% would see
the bulls lose impetus.
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COMMODITIES & BONDS Outlook
4

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Risk Warning for Financial Promotions
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only invest in FX, Bullion and/or CFD trading with funds you are prepared to lose entirely. Therefore, only your excess
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Weekly Outlook
8th June2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst