Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a €300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all payments, to then be paid at the end of the month.

1. Weekly Outlook
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1st June 2015 by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Macro Commentary
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors (the IMF and the EU) continue, but as yet there is no deal. Greek claims
that a deal was close were swiftly rebuffed by the IMF, leaving Greece still without the final €7.2bn bailout tranche it
needs to pay €1.6bn of debt repayments owed to the IMF in June. However, it would appear a 5th June deadline (for a
€300m repayment) is not actually a deadline at all. There is an IMF technicality that allows a lumping together of all
payments, to then be paid at the end of the month. According to Bloomberg, there is a precedent for this with Zambia in
the 1980s. If this is the case then without the absolute urgency of Friday’s deadline, this whole process could rumble on
past this week too. Quite how financial markets would react if a Friday deadline is extended remains to be seen, but it
certainly would not be beneficial to risk sentiment. Apparently progress is being made with VAT and property taxation
reform. However, what Greece really needs is pension reform, with around 28% of the government budget spent on
pensions (OECD average is 18%, with UK spending 12% in comparison). Although the retirement age was increased to 67
in 2012, numerous exemptions means that 68% of public workers retire between 51 to 61. This clearly needs to change.
WHEN: Fri, 5th June, 1330BST
LAST: 223,000
FORECAST: 225,000
Impact: After Janet Yellen’s reiterated that the Fed
is focusing on labor market improvements for a
decision over a potential rate hike, it is important
for payrolls to remain firmly above the 200,000
threshold. The Fed will also looking for average
hourly earnings picking up after a surprise uptick
in core CPI. Consensus almost perpetually expects
0.2% month on month growth, with year on year
of c. 2.0% but this is not enthusing FOMC hawks.
Payrolls invariably drive market volatility but a
strong number would certainly be strong for US
dollar whilst negatively hitting commodities and
maybe also an equities “good news is bad” run.
Must watch for: US Consumer Confidence
Key Economic Releases
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Mon 1st Jun 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5
Tue 2nd Jun 05:30 Australia RBA monetary policy 2.00% 2.00%
Tue 2nd Jun 15:00 US Factory Orders 0.0% +2.1%
Wed 3rd Jun 09:30 UK Services PMI 59.2 59.5
Wed 3rd Jun ALL OPEC Bi-annual meeting
Wed 3rd Jun 12:45 Eurozone ECB monetary policy + press conference 0.05% 0.05%
Wed 3rd Jun 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.0 57.8
Thu 4th Jun 12:00 UK Bank of England monetary policy +0.2% +0.6%
Fri 5th Jun 13:30 US Non-farm Payrolls 225,000 223,000
Fri 5th Jun 13:30 US Average hourly earnings +0.2% +0.1%
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1
US Non-farm Payrolls
N.B. Please note all times are BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters

2. Weekly Outlook
1st June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
With a raft of tier one US economic data this week, expect volatility on dollar trades to be elevated. Rhetoric from
Federal Reserve members continue to push the idea that there is a data dependency to any rate hikes, which is adding to
volatility surrounding US economic data. Monday’s ISM Manufacturing is expected to show a first uptick since October
and this could be a driver of dollar fortunes through the early part of the week. Clearly the focus will be on Friday’s
Payrolls data, which need to remain positive, with the labor market data really being the major source of positivity that
the bulls have been able to rely on. Another interesting aspect this week will be the ECB monetary policy which will be
unchanged on the headline data, but in Mario Draghi’s press conference he is likely to be grilled on the ECB’s idea of
front-loading QE purchases of the next couple of months to account for the reduced liquidity during the summer. Exactly
how many more bonds than the stated target of €60bn per month will be key and also the progress on meeting the
targets will drive euro volatility. Markets will also be focused on the prospects of a deal for Greece too.
WATCH FOR: A week of elevated volatility with dollar traders sifting through a multitude of key US data
such as ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing, and labor market data culminating in Non-farm
Payrolls on Friday. Also a series of major central bank policy updates for Australia, the Eurozone and UK.
EUR/USD
Watch for: Resistance at $1.1065 is a key
pivot level this week
Outlook: In 2015 there have been numerous
reversals (both bullish and bearish) which
have traded around a 50 pip band between
1.1050/$1.1100. The euro recently broke
below a key near term support at $1.1065
which now becomes resistance for any rally
this week. Whilst trading below this pivot,
the near to medium term outlook remains
bearish (with the long term outlook negative
whilst below $1.1450). I still see technical
rallies will be an opportunity for medium
term short positions.
GBP/USD
Watch for: Developing bearish medium term
phase suggests rallies are a chance to sell
Outlook: Breaking below the key reaction
low at $1.5445 last week confirmed that the
bears are now forming a new sequence of
lower highs and lower lows. With
momentum indicators adding to the bearish
confirmation, any rallies should be seen as a
chance to sell. A text book lower high would
come in the range between $1.5445 and
$1.5490 (an old May peak). A 50% Fibonacci
retracement of the April/May rally is at
$1.5189 and could be a potential
consolidation zone this week, however, the
key support is at the May low of $1.5088.
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FX Outlook
2

3. Weekly Outlook
1st June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Indices
A marked increase in options volatility on the DAX has had a negative impact and a feature of trading in the pas couple of
weeks. There has been an increasing concern over the lack of progress in negotiations of a deal for Greece which has
been a significant driver of the uncertainty. The negative correlation between the yields on German Bunds and the
fluctuations on the DAX has switched for the time being and this could continue this week, as the Greek negotiations
rumble on. However, I do anticipate a traditional last minute deal being reached once more and I would expect the DAX
to be sharply higher on the news. Even the S&P 500 appears to be driving off Greece at the moment, however it is
interesting that the Dow Transports index continues to fall away and this could also be a factor. The absence of any
significant corporate earnings will also keep the sentiment driven by US data and international drivers this week. The
FTSE 100 has traded in a tight 140 tick range for the past two weeks and has become a apparent safe port in the storm
that is impacting across Eurozone equity markets.
WATCH FOR: Eurozone equity markets (especially the DAX) are still being dragged around by newsflow on
Greek negotiations. A raft of tier 1 economic data will also impact across the S&P 500, with special focus on
the IMS data and Non-farm Payrolls.
DAX Xetra
Watch for: With focus on the lack of a deal
for Greece selling pressure could test 11,167
Outlook: There is a slightly bearish bias
amidst the volatility now as sharp selling
pressure at the end of last week has
breached the key near term pivot band of
support between 11,620/11,710 (which now
turns into resistance for a rally). If this
continues then pressure will mount on the
key May low at 11,167 this week. There is a
sense that momentum is negative and this is
adding to the pressure, but as yet there is no
suggestion of a downside break below the
May low.
FTSE 100
Watch for: A breach of 6930 opens 6885 and
then the key May low at 6810
Outlook: A late sell-off into the close on
Friday may have been due to end of month
closing the books, however the move
completed a bearish outside day which
suggests that support at 6930 could now
come under pressure. There is no significant
selling pressure on FTSE 100 yet, but a
failure at 6930 would open further support
levels in May whilst the bulls would certainly
not be happy if the 6810 low was breached
as it would ruin a sequence of higher lows
through 2015. Resistance is now at 7070.
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INDEX Outlook
3

4. Weekly Outlook
1st June 2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
Recent dollar strength has adversely impacted on prices across the commodities complex as the negative correlation
continues. Friday’s US GDP data strengthened the dollar but there are still a few signs of a near term loss of impetus,
which could be supportive of commodities prices. If oil traders are keeping one eye on the dollar, they will certainly be
keeping the other on this week’s bi-annual OPEC meeting. Already the Saudis are suggesting that production would keep
up with demand (suggesting no imminent cuts to supply), and whilst there is no expectation of any major changes in
policy, volatility surrounding the meeting could be elevated.
Bond yields on Treasuries and Bunds have spent the past couple of weeks retracing their upsurges, with the positive
correlation between the euro and Bund losing strength. This is coming from the focus on Greece once more, and whilst
this remains unresolved the safe haven Bund will benefit. Greek yields have fallen on the rumour of a deal but the longer
the situation drags there may be further excuse for yields to rise again.
WATCH FOR: Focus remains on crucial tier one US data driving expectation of a US rate high and a negative
correlation with commodities. The OPEC meeting will drive oil. Eurozone yields will move off Greece.
Gold
Watch for: The range play continues
between $1178/$1225
Outlook: Despite the dollar strength, a
series of neutral candles at the end of last
week shows the support for gold around
the bottom of the range (which is still
around $1178), whilst also suggesting a
lack of sellers willing to push gold too far
lower near term. Technical indicators are
neutral and playing the extremes of the
range is once more an option. Traders
appear to be looking for the next catalyst
for a breakout.
German 10 year Bund yield
Watch for: Key support at 0.520% breached
to open further downside pressure
Outlook: Although the decline has not been
as fast as the sharp rally of late April, the
retracement is now in full swing. Last Friday
there was a decline back through the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement at 0.511% which had
held up the original correction of early May.
Now having closed below the latest key
reaction low of 0.520% the outlook for the
Bund yield is deteriorating. Momentum is
corrective, with the RSI now in decline and
the Stochastics in bearish configuration. The
next Fib levels are the 50% retracement at
0.423% and then the 61.8% retracement at
0.335%. Initial resistance is now 0.555%.
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COMMODITIES & BONDS Outlook
4

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only invest in FX, Bullion and/or CFD trading with funds you are prepared to lose entirely. Therefore, only your excess
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Weekly Outlook
1st June2015
by Richard Perry, Market Analyst