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Martin Hingley, ITCandor, January 2018
ITCandor 2018 predictions for the IT
and communications industry
Siri, Alexa, Watson – what can I do
now you’ve put me out of work?

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1.The global ITC market grows 1.8% to $6.7 trillion
2.EMEA ITC spending falls behind the Americas and Asia Pacific
3.UK the worst, Switzerland the best country for spending growth
4.SaaS, IaaS, PaaS – the fastest growing offerings
5.Cloud – local and regional CSPs gain against global giants
6.People are the product, but they don’t get paid
7.Enterprise computing shifts off premise – AWS replaces Cisco as top
enterprise supplier
8.Storage commoditisation puts more suppliers out of business
9.Oracle makes strong headway as an enterprise supplier
10.Automation will create social disorder
ITCandor 2018 predictions for the IT and
communications industry

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1.The global ITC market grows 1.8% to $6.7 trillion
•Global ITC
spending has
recovered from the
credit crunch of
2008-9
•2018 will see
growth in spending
of 1.8% to reach
$6.7 trillion
•The Americas have
the ideas and
innovative
marketing
•Asia Pacific has
manufacturing
•EMEA is virtually a
vassal state

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2.EMEA ITC spending falls behind the Americas and Asia Pa
•EMEA has fallen
behind the Americas
and Asia Pacific
consistently
•The USA is
dominant in the
Americas – home to
marketing innovation
and IP
•Asia Pacific is home
to manufacturing
•The EU fails to
promote regional
champions
•NXP and ARM
Holdings have been
sold to foreign
suppliers

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3.UK the worst, Switzerland the best country for spending g
•The USA is by far
the largest country
market and will
grow in 2018
•Spending in
Switzerland will
grow by 17.1%
making it the
strongest country
market
•The uncertainty of
Brexit is lowering
confidence and
spending, which will
by 13.7% lower in
2018

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4A.SaaS, IaaS, PaaS – the fastest growing offerings
•Of the four ITC
categorise IT service
and software will
perform best in
2018
•Hardware sales will
be similar to 2017
levels
•Software will grow,
but remain behind
the other three
categories
•Despite offering
ever cheaper
services telecom
service will see no
growth in the year

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4B.SaaS, IaaS, PaaS – the fastest growing offerings
•Wireless and Fixed
line telecom,
implementation
services,
applications and
mobile devices will
be the largest
offerings in 2018
•Cloud services –
SaaS, IaaS and PaaS
will be the strongest
growing offerings of
all
•Operating systems
will be the next
strongest of the
non-cloud products

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5.Cloud – local and regional CSPs gain against global
giants
•AWS has led the
phenomenal success of
cloud computing IBM
Softbank has also been
tremendously
successful
•Microsoft Azure,
Google and Alibaba are
doing well
•In 2018 this top-down
train will be met head-
on by the growth of
regional and local CSPs
•This bottom-up
change will be
significant in 2018
•Examples include AI
Telekom, OVH, Atos and
UKCloud

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6.People are the product, but they don’t get paid
•Consumer spending
on ITC offerings will
have lower growth
than business
spending in 2018
•Web scale
companies make the
majority of their
revenues from
exploiting personal
data by selling it to
other suppliers
•People are the
product – but they
won’t get paid for
the data they provide
in 2018

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7.Enterprise computing shifts off premise – AWS replaces C
•Cloud services and
Outsourcing/managed
services are similar in
providing organisations
with off premise
services to replace
designing, building and
running their on data
centers
•They differ in their
contracts – the former
are 3-5 year inflexible
fixed priced, the latter
are closer to ‘pay as you
go’
•Cloud is rising rapidly
– AWS will replace Cisco
as the leading
enterprise IT supplier in
2018

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8.Storage commoditisation puts more suppliers out of busi
•Moore’s law gives us
twice as much
capacity every 18
months for the same
price in raw storage
•Storage systems
suppliers have
struggled as the
majority of new
applications don’t
require 100%
reliability and security
•More storage
systems vendors will
be acquired or go out
of business die to this
commodisation in
2018

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9.Oracle makes strong headway as an enterprise supplier
•Sun was once the
leader of the server
market before being
acquired by Oracle in
2010
•Oracle is an
idiosyncratic vendor,
preferring to provide
solutions from its own
IP
•Like Apple in 2009 it
approaches 2018 with a
winning set of offerings
including its new
Netsuite ones
•As the enterprise
market moves to cloud
services, fewer
prospects will be put off
by Oracle’s proprietary
approaches

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10.Automation will create social disorder
•The ITC industry is
removing millions from
the workforce as a
result of automation
•New nationalism is –
in part – an attempt to
define societies in a less
global way
•The super rich are
squirreling away their
money into stateless
off-shore funds
•Automation
unemployment is
spreading from manual
to office-based roles
•New Luddites will
create social disorder in
protest in 2018

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