This presentation will covers: - What is wrong with Organisational Change? - Why do we believe what we believe about Organisational Change - How can we challenge our beliefs? - When should we start to change?

1. Is the future of Organisational
Change Evidence Based?
Join the conversation 7-9pm 2nd Feb 2022
FUTOCRACY - Global Organisational Change
Conference 2022
Exploring the Future of Organisational Change
Presented by Alex Boulting

2. Today’s Deep Dive !

3. Why Now?

4. WHAT?…
What is wrong with Organisational
Change?
1

5. 5
1950s 1960s 1980s
1970s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
1940s
From Kurt Lewin (1943) to Paul Lawrence
(1958) change and organisational
development is conceived as a set of
causal relationships within a ‘social
system’ built on scientific constructs.
Allport (1937) ‘functional autonomy’ &
Maslow’s (1943) ‘general dynamic theory’
integrate psychological & physiological
approaches to human motivation. White
1959 uses the words ‘competence &
efficacy’ to describe the human need to
‘‘learn to interact effectively with his
environment’
Lewin (1947) mentions “unfreezing,
change of level, and freezing on the new
level” (UCF) ‘theory’. Lewin believes
that force is needed to “break the habit”
(unfreeze), change, Freeze change
management (UCF) & restraining forces
although he views people not being
either entirely fluid or rigid.
Coch & French (1948) – use the phrase
‘overcoming resistance to change’
Lewin’s UCF is extrapolated by Lippit et
al (1958) to 7 stages who cites Lewin’s
‘three phase model’ & creates the term
‘change agents’
Schien (1961) uses Lewins ‘3-phase’ model in
his model for culture change but doesn’t
mention Lippit until Schein & Bennis 1965 who
popularize T-Groups..
Kübler-Ross publishes her stages of grief
theory (1969) based on collection of case
studies taken from conversations with dying
patients
1962 Maslow founds the Humanistic
Psychology movement which soon becomes
‘pop’ movement
1979 Robbins’ Organizational Behavior
published with no mention of Lewin’s UCF
Forrester (1961) - publishes Industrial
Dynamics which views organisations as
complex systems.
Burns & Stalker (1961) – find that less
structured organisations can better adapt to
dynamic environments
1965 Emery & Trist view organisations as
‘open systems’ responding to ‘environmental
textures’
Katz & Kahn (1966) develop an ‘open-
system theory’ of organisations.
Current robust OD constructs emerge such
as Dansereau’s (1973) – Leader Member
Exchange, Bandura 1977 – Self- Efficacy &
Gouldner, 1960 (Reciprocity) Social
Exchange Theory
‘Pop’ psychology’ n-stage organisational change
‘arms race’ as 11 models in 11 years
extrapolated from ‘Lewin’s’ UCR model Conner
& Kotter embed ‘Sense of Urgency &
Resistance Myths’. Methods fail to reference
research & based mainly on personal
experiences & case studies.
Peters & Waterman (1982) publish In Search of
Excellence
Brief history of organisational change & development
Birth of organisational change Birth of organisational change Explosion of management fads
Meta Analysis & Myth Busting
Scientific Approach to OD Systems Approach to OD Explosion of OD constructs
Myth Development & Embedding
OD constructs consolidated into more general
theories such as Ryan & Deci (1985) Self
Determination Theory, Theory of Planned
Behaviour Lock & Latham (1988) Goal Setting
while new theories emerge such as Kahn
(1990) Psychological Safety & Employee
Engagement, Weick’s (1995) Organisational
Sensemaking help to build the foundations of
modern OD thinking.
Meta analysis techniques help to create robust
OD constructs such as Self-Efficacy (Stajkovic &
Luthans-1998), Organisational Justice (Colquitt
et al 2013) Trust in Leadership (Dirks & Ferrin -
2002), Psychological Safety (Frazier et al
2017)
Academics start to question the foundations of
traditional organisational change models e.g.,
Hughes (2015) critiques Kotter & Cummings et
al (2015) questions the Lewin’s UCF theory.
BCG stress
importance of
evidence
CIPD embrace
evidence-
based
management
(EBM) &
produce
‘evidence
reviews’
2008 SCARF model loosely based on
neuroscience leads to ‘brains hate change’ &
other ‘neuro’ myths
Lueke 2003 further embeds Kubler Ross myth
& other ‘n-stage methods.
Mcgregor’s (1957) X-Y theory
‘operationalises’ Maslow’s theory
DiClemente and Prochaska (1982) – integrative
model of behavioural change
Birk & Letwin (1992) integrate OD theories into
their causal model of organisational performance &
change
Hiatt (2006) ADKAR 5 step model
uses outdated theory and case
studies
Stouten et al integrate organisational
change methods with academic OD
theories
CMI Handbook (2015) integrates CM methods
but also embeds myths such as MBTI, Learning
Styles, Kubler-Ross, Amygdala Hijack,
Maslow’s Hierarchy etc.

6. Challenging Assumptions
6

7. Non-scientific mindset
Negative, excessive
truth claims based on
cognitive bias &
authority not high-
quality evidence
Claims
Unchallengeable beliefs
based on over
simplified, biased view
of how people &
organisations change
Beliefs
Pretence of knowledge
based on delusion of
rigours research &
anecdotal evidence
Knowledge
Poor quality theories
influence practice &
managers adopt the
theorists’ world view
Assumptions
Negative false
assumptions become
real through their
practice.
A self-fulfilling
prophecy
Behaviour
HALO EFFECTS
SILVER BULLETS
SOLUTIONEERING
LACK OF EVIDENCE
DISPROVEN THEORIES
OVER SIMPLICATIONS
UNFALSIFIABLE CLAIMS
BLUEPRINTS OF SUCCESS
DELUSION OF RIGOROUS
RESEARCH
EXTRAORDINARY
EXTRAPOLATIONS
Failed or difficult organisational change programmes confirm our beliefs
Body of Knowledge built on disproven theories & poor quality evidence
Experiences are fitted to disproven or poor quality ‘theories’ making us blind to underlying structures
and patterns within organisations creating a stagnant body of knowledge
Adapted from Ghoshal, S. (2005). Bad management theories are destroying good management practices. Academy of Management learning & education, 4(1), 75-91.

8. Reasoned truth claims
based on body of high-
quality evidence
Claims
Challengeable beliefs
based on logical,
consistent & verifiable
view of how people &
organisations change
Beliefs
Built on constant
testing & challenging
our assumptions and
intuition
Knowledge
Theories that are
constantly revised to
reflect our observations
of ‘reality’
Assumptions
Constant
experimentation
contributing to robust
body of knowledge
Behaviour
BELIEFS BOUNDED BY PHYSICS
CLEAR DEFINITIONS
VALIDATED MEASURES
TESTABLE CLAIMS
ORDINARY INTERPOLATIONS
RIGOUROUS RESEARCH
PREDICTIVE VALIDITY
OPERABILITY
ETHICAL USE
Understanding success & failure that drive our confidence in our practice
Body of Knowledge built on robust theories & high quality evidence
Experiences are used to challenge or confirm theories allowing us to see underlying structures and
patterns within complex situations helping us build robust body of knowledge
Scientific mindset

9. Academic
Discovery
Doubt
&
Defection
Cult-like Following
Consultancy Hype
Popularisation
Study Description
Pop psychology
The Fad & Fashion Funnel
“Thinking scientifically is a
skill. Scepticism is healthy;
cynicism is not. In order to be
a discriminating “purchaser” of
management ideas we need
to evaluate the evidence for
them.“
Fads and Fashions in Management - July 20,
2015 - Adrian Furnham Professor of
Psychology University College London –
European Business Review

11. If we do not
understand the
structures can we
ever understand the
patterns they create?

12. WHY?…
Why do we believe what we believe?
2

13. Logic
Intuition
Evidence
Systems
Internal External

14. What is it?

15. Getting the complete picture
Sensory Input
(‘New’ Evidence)
Current ‘Beliefs’ Future Beliefs
Organisational
Academic
Stakeholder
Our Knowledge
Our Experience
Our Current
model of the
world
New mental
model of the
world
Organisation’s most
likely situation

18. HOW?…
How should we challenge our beliefs?
3

19. Problems with
Popular Change
Management
Models
19
• Not Evidence Based
• Out Of Date Theories
• Extraordinary Extrapolations
• Data Delusion
• Gloomy Vision
• Project Based
• Self-fulfilling Prophecy

20. 20
Mind The Gap!

21. Spotting a dodgy concept
LOGICALLY POSSIBLE
(Face Validity)
CLEARLY DEFINED
(Construct Redundancy)
MEANINGFUL MEASURES
(Construct Validity)
PREDICABLE
(Predictive Validity)
ETHICAL

22. Challenging
Status Quo
Creating Pain
Urgency Continuum
Not Accepting BAU
“Strong and widespread
felt need for change
although the direction of
change is not clear yet
Phillips” (1983)
Sense of
Concern
“To break open the shell of
complacency and
self‐righteousness it is
sometimes necessary to
bring about an emotional
stir up”. Lewin (1943)
Organisations are
“canyons of complacency”
Kotter (2012)
Emotional
Stir-up
“support for attitudes have
to be undermined and
destroyed if change is to
take place.” Schein (1962)
Destroy
Attitudes
“Orchestrating pain
messages throughout an
institution is the first step in
developing organisational
commitment to change”
Conner
‘create a crisis’ Kotter
(2012)
Create a Crisis
Do we know what we are talking about?
“Hiatt (2006) warns against overselling change by putting too much stress on the urgency of every change—reducing
credibility. Similarly, Kanter et al. (1992: 383) caution that messages of urgency might appear to “cry wolf” and fail to induce a
felt need for change.“
Stouten, J., Rousseau, D. M., & De Cremer, D. (2018). Successful organizational change: Integrating the management practice and scholarly literatures. Academy of
Management Annals, 12(2), 752-788.
“it is difficult to make much
progress…of a major
change effort unless most
managers honestly believe
that the status quo is
unacceptable” (p51) (2012)

23. 23
Practice Makes Permanent not Perfect!

24. If we do not
constantly update
our beliefs do we
loose sight of the
wood from the
trees?

25. WHEN?…
When can we start?
4

26. Adopting a Scientific Mindset
“though science is slow and fumbling, it represents the best road we know to truth, even in so
delicately intricate an area as that of human relationships.”
Carl Rogers – 1942 - Counseling and Psychotherapy
“Psychologists who think in field theoretical terms and those who think in stimulus response terms
agree that psychological explanations have to use "constructs" and that psychological theory has to
be mathematical in nature ”
Kurt Lewin – 1943 – Definition of Field Theory
“The art develops through empirical experience but in time ceases to grow because of the
disorganised state of its knowledge” “But as long as there is no orderly underlying scientific base the
experiences remain as special cases. The lesson’s are poorly transferable either in time or space”
.
Jay Forrester – 1961 – Industrial Dynamics
01
02
03

27. Curiosity
Continuous
Emergent
Understanding
Agency
Difference
WIIFUs
Context
Success
Falsification
Data
System
People
Strength
Interpolation
Bootstrapping our beliefs!
Stress
Discrete
Directive
Urgency
Grief
Resistance
WIIFMe
Communication
Failure
Truth Claims
Dogma
Individual
Process
Deficit
Extrapolation
Current Mental
Models
Future Mental
Models
Inverted U – stress is ‘good’
Unfreeze-Change-Refreeze
Project management focus
Create a Sense of Urgency
Generalised Change Curve
Resistance as a barrier
People are self-interested
Communication is 'The' key
70% Failure Rates
Change starts with the individual
Learning Styles & MBTI
Change starts with the individual
Change is linear
Breakdown what fails
Brains hate change
Curiosity is ‘good’
Change creates stability
People management focus
Create Sense of Understanding
Individual reactions to Change
Resistance as a sounding board
People are socially-interested
Conversation with a centre not sides
What works in which context
Objectively testing truth claims
Be permeable to the facts
Change starts within a system
Change is a series of feedback loops
Amplify what works
Brains hate pain

28. INTEGRATION
CAUSATION
EXPERIMENTATION
PREDICTION
STRATEGIC
01
02
03
04
05
5 Benefits of Complex Systems
ORGANISATIONS
AS COMPLEX
SYSTEMS
Adapted from Organization Development: Behavioral Science Interventions for Organization Improvement
Book by Cecil H Bell and Wendell L. French 1973

29. 6 Benefits of Being Evidence-Based
Clarity & robustness of decision-making
allows organisations to quickly respond to
external challenges
.
AGILITY 01
as it creates a process to
understand & interrogate
decision-making
CONFIDENCE 06
because decision-making
processes have integrity &
gravitas
TRUST 02
Creates transparency &
objectivity around decision-
making
FAIRNESS 05
clear decision-making
structures creates efficacy,
agency & autonomy
EMPOWERMENT 03
to organisational values such as respect &
fairness
CONGRUENCE 04

30. NOW?…
Lets get started…
5

31. ORGANISATIONAL
CHANGE
‘defining and adopting
corporate strategies, structures,
procedures and technologies to
handle changes in external
conditions and the business
environment.’
SHRM
“ ‘the application of a structured
process and set of tools for
leading the people side of
change to achieve a desired
outcome’ PROSCI
CHANGE
MANAGEMENT
ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
‘a planned and systematic
approach to enabling sustained
organisational performance
through the involvement of its
people’
CIPD 2020
The practice of adapting human capability to meet internal & external ambitions
STRATEGIC HR
MANAGEMENT
The choice, alignment, and
integration of an organisation’s
HRM system so that its human
capital resources most effectively
contribute to strategic business
objectives.’ Kaufman (2015: 404)
IES 2019
Spot the difference?

32. Academics v Practitioners

33. Organisational
Commitment
Work
Motivation
Organisational
Identification
Goal Setting
Dialogue
(Feedback)
Leadership
(Recognition)
Job Design
(Rewards)
Purpose
(Meaning)
Autonomy
(Empowerment)
Social Support
Psychological
Safety
Organisational
Justice
Leadership
(Trust & Positive
Relationships )
Job Design
(Role Clarity
Task & Skill Variety)
Employee
Engagement
Person-
Organisational Fit
Organisational
Prestige
Wietrak, E., Barends, E. and Rousseau, D. (2021) Organisational identification: an evidence review. Scientific summary. London:
Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
Wietrak, E., Rousseau, D. and Barends, E. (2021) Work motivation: an evidence review. Scientific summary. London: Chartered
Institute of Personnel and Development.
Patterns across concepts
Employee Engagement
=
Change Capability

34. 3
Integration
UNIQUENESS
Drive to flourish
DOING External Perspective
BELONGING–
Drive to belong
BEING Internal Perspective
Behaviour is manifested as
a decision to act which
clearly impacts change
momentum & direction.
Connects individual
intentions, beliefs, emotions
& assumptions
to action
What I Do & How I Do It
Habitualised behaviours
have a high symbolic impact
on change through
organisational structures,
processes & systems.
Connects individual
behaviours to an
organisation’s purpose.
What We Do & How We Do
It
Social context interprets
beliefs & behaviours in
relation to others creating
wide cultural meaning of
change.
Connects individual’s
identity to organisational
culture.
Why We Do & What We
Experience
Cognitive contemplation of
how deep the individual’s
commitment to change is.
Connects to an individual's
intentions, beliefs, emotions
& assumptions
Why I Do & What I
Experience

35. 35
COMPLEX SYSTEMS… CAN BE SIMPLIFIED

36. 36
Breaking down to build up!
TRUST
=
Consideratio
n & Structure
Psychological
Contract Breach
Dirks, K. T., & Ferrin, D. L. (2002). Trust in leadership: Meta-analytic findings and implications for
research and practice. Journal of applied psychology, 87(4), 611.
Trust In
Leadership.pptx

37. Precontemplation
I won’t or I can’t
Contemplation
I might
Preparation
I will
Action
I am
Realise
‘small wins’ to build
belief
Embed
and habitualise
change behaviours
Understand
the need & readiness
for change
Develop
compelling vision &
leadership capability
Implement
evidence-based
interventions
Support
enabling practices &
structures
Maintenance
I still am
Individual Change Process
Organisational Change Process
PULSE PULSE
PULSE PULSE
Creating high performing teams
Operational
level
Strategic
level

39. SCIENCE
ART
Kahneman, D. (2002). Maps of bounded rationality: A perspective on intuitive judgment and choice. Nobel prize lecture, 8, 351-401.
SCIENCE

40. Future Events

41. AND ...
Thank you!
from Alex
Boulting
Owner | ebbnflow
+44 7562570000
alex@ebbnflow.co.u
k
www.ebbnflow.co.u
k
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