Since 2007, federal debt held by the public has more than doubled in relation to the size of the economy, and it will keep growing significantly if the large annual budget deficits projected under current law come to pass. The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the challenges posed by such large and growing debt.
I prepared this slide on my research paper 'fiscal deficit and inflation ' on the current economic situation of India. In this data has been collected from economic survey 2011-12 and several other books. This slide has full data how the the central govt. and central bank uses their, fiscal policy and monetary policy respectively Hope, it will provide a good help for students who want to know about these concepts of economics.
gaurav tripathi(undergrad econ)>
Lower for longer; constructive ambiguity. Chair Powell took pains to paint an image of constructive ambiguity, repeatedly highlighting that the Committee is focused on pursuing policy that is “appropriate” in achieving its dual mandate. The current policy stance is deemed appropriate with current projections achievable via modest policy adjustments (likely -75bps of cuts). Nonetheless, if the economy turns down, “a more extensive sequence of rate cuts is appropriate”. As we argued prior, “it is better to guide for looser policy in an open-ended manner (flattening backwardation of rate cut expectations) rather than encourage front-loading of rate cut expectations”. We think that the Chair has achieved such an outcome, together with “guidance” for an extended pause at a minimum; the best mix of policy, considering circumstances.
All the information about the fiscal policy is provided in this slide for ever BBA student it is easy to understand the fiscal policy and its terms and types INFORMATION FOR CLASS PROJECTS AND CLASS PRESENTATION
Since 2007, federal debt held by the public has more than doubled in relation to the size of the economy, and it will keep growing significantly if the large annual budget deficits projected under current law come to pass. The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the challenges posed by such large and growing debt.
I prepared this slide on my research paper 'fiscal deficit and inflation ' on the current economic situation of India. In this data has been collected from economic survey 2011-12 and several other books. This slide has full data how the the central govt. and central bank uses their, fiscal policy and monetary policy respectively Hope, it will provide a good help for students who want to know about these concepts of economics.
gaurav tripathi(undergrad econ)>
Lower for longer; constructive ambiguity. Chair Powell took pains to paint an image of constructive ambiguity, repeatedly highlighting that the Committee is focused on pursuing policy that is “appropriate” in achieving its dual mandate. The current policy stance is deemed appropriate with current projections achievable via modest policy adjustments (likely -75bps of cuts). Nonetheless, if the economy turns down, “a more extensive sequence of rate cuts is appropriate”. As we argued prior, “it is better to guide for looser policy in an open-ended manner (flattening backwardation of rate cut expectations) rather than encourage front-loading of rate cut expectations”. We think that the Chair has achieved such an outcome, together with “guidance” for an extended pause at a minimum; the best mix of policy, considering circumstances.
All the information about the fiscal policy is provided in this slide for ever BBA student it is easy to understand the fiscal policy and its terms and types INFORMATION FOR CLASS PROJECTS AND CLASS PRESENTATION
FRB-Richmond_ unsustainable fiscal policy_ implications for monetary policyFred Kautz
Economic research suggests that high debt levels ultimately could overwhelm a central bank’s efforts to keep prices stable. This essay will argue that these outcomes should be avoided in the United States by putting fiscal policy on a sustainable path.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
2011 4th Qtr Economic Review
Economic Summary
Fed Policy
Bus Investment
Other Economic Indicators
Employment Analytics
“Falling Knife -1- Employment vs Skils”
“Falling Knife -2- The Great In-equality of Wages”
Thought Experiment
Market Forecast
Picks
Obama Administration vs CBO fiscal forecastGaetan Lion
This presentation reviews the fiscal forecast from the Obama Administration released within the "A New Era of Responsibility" in February of 2009 and the related CBO analysis released in March of 2009.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
How Liberals and Conservatives Can Talk About Climate changeEd Dolan
Many liberals are afraid to talk to their conservative friends and neighbors about climate change. They think it is a waste of time and that all conservatives are climate deniers. Their conservative friends have similar feelings about liberals. Here is why liberals and conservatives should talk to each other about climate and how a constructive dialog is possible.
The Economics of a Price-Smoothing Oil TaxEd Dolan
An oil importing country can protect itself from the adverse effects of price volatility and encourage energy conservation by implementing a tax that varies inversely with the global oil price, thereby smoothing the domestic price.
Government agencies reported US GDP growth at a 3.6 percent in Q3. The economy added 203,000 jobs in November and unemployment fell to 7 percent, a new low for the recovery
US Adds 204,000 Jobs in October Despite ShutdownEd Dolan
The US added 204,000 new jobs in October. The unemployment rate edged up by less than a tenth of a percent. The data were muddled by the government shutdown
Breakup of the Ruble Area: Lessons for the EuroEd Dolan
After the Soviet Union was dissolved, the 15 successor states for a time shared the ruble as their common currency. The breakup of the ruble area holds lessons for the euro.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Is the Federal Budget Out of Control? A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
1. Is the Federal Budget
Out of Control?
A Tutorial on Debt Dynamics
and Sustainability
Ed Dolan
Senior Fellow, Niskanen Center
Revised March 2020
Terms of Use: These slides are provided under Creative Commons License Attribution—Share Alike 3.0 .
2. Out of Control?
Even before the coronavirus crisis of 2020, many people feared that the federal
budget was out of control.
Are fears of an exploding debt and deficit realistic?
This tutorial explains the dynamics of the debt and deficit and the conditions
needed for fiscal sustainability.
CBO
3. How to Measure the Debt
Debt held by the public, also known
as net debt, is the best measure of
federal borrowing.
The debt ratio is the ratio of net debt
to GDP, 79.2% as of 2019.
About 40% of net debt was owned by
foreign investors.
Gross debt includes debt owed by
one government agency to another – a
bookkeeping entry that puts no net
burden on the economy. As of 2019
gross debt was about 107% of GDP.
US federal debt, 2019:
• Net debt = $13.8 trillion
• Debt ratio (net debt/GDP) = 79.2%
Data source: Congressional Budget Office
4. Debt vs. Deficit
The government debt is the total
amount that the government
owes.
The budget balance is equal to
government revenues minus
expenditures, a negative number
when there is a deficit and a
positive number when there is a
surplus.
Each year the debt changes by
the amount of the budget
balance.
5. Adjusting for the Business Cycle
To identify long-run debt trends,
we need adjust for the effects of
the business cycle.
Key terms:
Potential GDP is an estimate of the
total output that the economy could
produce in the long-run without
overheating the economy, popularly
known as “full employment GDP.”
The output gap is equal to current
GDP minus potential GDP, usually
stated as a percent of potential
GDP.
The output gap is negative at the
trough of the cycle and positive at
the peak.
6. Automatic Stabilizers
Automatic stabilizers are line items
that automatically move the budget
balance toward deficit when the output
gap is negative and toward surplus
when it is positive, even if there are no
changes in tax or spending laws.
Examples:
Income tax revenues increase when the
economy expands, pushing the balance
toward surplus.
Unemployment benefits increase when the
economy is in recession, pushing the
balance toward deficit.
7. Current vs. Structural Budget Balance
The current balance of the budget is
each year’s measured value of
revenues minus expenditures.
The structural balance (sometimes
called the cyclically adjusted
balance) is the current balance minus
the contribution of automatic stabilizers.
The structural balance shows what the
budget balance would be under current
laws in force if the output gap were
zero.
8. The Primary Structural Balance
The primary structural balance (PSB)
is equal to the overall structural balance
excluding interest payments on the
government debt.
Interest on the debt is excluded because it
depends on decisions made in the past, not
on current policy.
Expenditures excluding interest are called
program expenditures.
The PSB is a key determinant of long-
run debt trends.
Example 1 (all numbers are
percent of potential GDP):
• Structural balance = -5%
• Interest payments = 2%
• Primary structural balance =
-3%
• Both the primary structural
balance and overall structural
balance are in deficit
Example 2:
• Structural balance = -1.5%
• Interest payments = 2%
• PSB = +0.5%
• The overall structural balance
is in deficit but the PSB is in
surplus
9. US Budget Balances, 1970-2019
This figure shows three US
government budget balances for
1970-2019.
In a recession year (e.g. 2009)
the current balance is below the
structural balance (larger deficit).
Near the peak of the cycle the
current balance is above the
structural balance (smaller deficit,
as in 1979, or larger surplus, as
in 2000).
The primary structural balance is
always above the current
structural balance by a distance
equal to interest on the debt.
10. The Steady-State Primary Structural Balance
Under any given conditions, there is
some primary structural balance just
sufficient to hold total government debt
constant as a share of GDP.
We will call that the steady-state value
of the PSB, or PSB*.
The panel at the right shows how to
calculate PSB* given the debt ratio, the
interest rate on the debt, and the rate of
growth of GDP.
Let . . .
• PSB* = the steady-state
value of the primary structural
balance
• DEBT = the initial ratio of
debt to GDP
• INT = Interest rate on
government debt
• GRO = Rate of growth of
GDP
Then . . .
PSB* = DEBT(INT-GRO)
Note: The interest rate and growth rate can
be stated in either nominal or real terms,
provided both are stated the same way
11. Example 1:
DEBT = 0.5
INT = 0.02
GRO = 0.04
PSB* = 0.5(0.02-0.04) = -0.01
Example 1: The Math
If there is a constant primary structural
balance of -1% of GDP (a deficit), the
debt ratio will be constant at 50% of
GDP.
If PSB <-1% (a greater deficit) the debt
will grow.
If PSB>-1% (a smaller deficit or a surplus)
the debt will shrink.
Total interest payments (INT times
DEBT) will be 1% of GDP, so stability
of the debt implies an initial overall
structural balance of -2% (a structural
deficit).
12. Example 1: Dynamics
In Example 1, the interest rate
(0.02) is less than the rate of GDP
growth (0.04)
If the PSB is lower than PSB* (e.g.
―0.015 instead of the steady state
value of ―0.01), the debt ratio will
grow toward a new steady-state
value, in this case 0.75
If the PSB is larger than PSB* (e.g.
― .005), the debt ratio will
decrease toward a new steady-
state value, in this case 0.25
PSB= -.015
PSB*= -.01
PSB= -.005
Dynamics of Debt as % of GDP
DEBT=0.5 INT=0.02 GRO=0.04
13. Example 2
DEBT = 0.5
INT = 0.04
GRO = 0.02
PSB* = 0.5(0.04-0.02) = +0.01
Example 2: The Math
If there is a constant primary
structural surplus of 1% of GDP, the
debt ratio will remain constant at
50% of GDP
If PSB <1% (a smaller surplus or a
deficit) the debt will grow.
If PSB>1% the debt will shrink.
Total interest payments (INT times
DEBT) will be 2% of GDP, so
stability of the debt requres an initial
overall structural balance, including
interest of -1% (a structural deficit).
14. Example 2: Dynamics
In Example 2, the interest rate (0.04)
is greater than the rate of GDP
growth (0.02).
If the PSB is less than the steady-
state value of 0.01 (e.g. 0.005) the
debt ratio will grow without limit at an
ever increasing rate.
If the PSB is greater than the steady
state value (e.g. 0.015), the debt
ratio will decrease without limit.
A negative net debt ratio means the
government has financial assets that
exceed its financial liabilities, as in
Norway and some other oil-rich
countries.
PSB=.005
PSB*=.01
PSB=.015
Dynamics of Debt as % of GDP
DEBT=0.5 INT=0.04 GRO=0.02
15. Interest vs. Growth Rates: Why it Matters
The debt will “explode,” that is,
grow without limit at an ever faster
rate, only if the rate of interest is
higher than the rate of growth of
potential GDP.
If interest rates are lower than
growth rates, the debt ratio will
have a finite ceiling.
Shown in chart:
Net interest paid/net debt (the
average rate on outstanding debt.)
5-year moving geometric average of
growth of potential nominal GDP.
10-year Treasury rate (an
approximation of the cost of issuing
new debt.)
16. Interest vs. Growth Rates in the Inflationary 60s and 70s
The 1960s and 1970s were a
period of rapid GDP growth and
constantly accelerating inflation.
Nominal interest rates were low
relative to nominal GDP growth
during those years, probably in part
because bond buyers chronically
underestimated future inflation.
17. Interest vs. Growth Rates: The 1980s and 1990s
In the 1980s and 1990s, inflation
slowed steadily.
Nominal interest rates averaged
higher than the growth of nominal
potential GDP in those years,
probably because bond buyers
overestimated the risk that high
inflation would return. (It did not.)
18. Lower Interest Rates Appear to be the New Normal
Since 2000, interest rates have
been low and potential nominal
GDP has grown a moderate rate of
averaging about 4 percent.
During this period, interest rates
have averaged below the growth of
GDP, a situation that has come to
be seen as the new normal.
Interest rates lower than GDP
growth imply low risk of an
“exploding” debt.
19. 2017 to 2019: An Unusual Pattern of Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy in the years 2017-2019
had an unusual procyclical pattern.
Due in part to large tax cuts and in
part to higher spending, the PSB
moved sharply toward deficit just as
the output gap closed and then
became positive.
That contrasted with the
countercyclical pattern of fiscal policy
for most of the preceding 50 years,
under which the PSB moved toward
surplus during the approach to
cyclical peaks.
20. The Situation as of 2019
As of 2019, debt was about 80% of
GDP, interest expenditures were
about 2.3 percent of the debt, and
the growth of nominal GDP was
about 4%.
A primary structural balance of -1.36
would have been required to hold
the debt ratio constant at 80%.
Instead, the actual PSB was 2.9%.
With no change in the PSB, interest
rates, or growth rates, the debt ratio
would have grown to a steady-state
value of about 170% of GDP.
• DEBT = 0.8
• INT = 2.3% (nominal)
• GRO = 4% (real GDP growth of 2.1%
plus 1.9% inflation)
PSB* = DEBT(INT-GRO)
= .8 (.023-.04)
= .8 X -.017
= -.017
= -1.36%
Actual PSB = -2.9
Implied steady-state debt ratio = 170%
21. Looking Ahead
At the time of writing, the COVID-19
pandemic of 2020 has subjected the
U.S. economy to a sharp contractionary
shock
The short run effects are sure to include
large increases in all three deficits and
the debt ratio.
It is likely, but not certain, that once the
economy recovers, interest rates will
remain below the growth of GDP. If so,
the debt ratio will eventually stabilize at
a new, higher value.
22. For more free classroom-ready slideshows like this one,
visit the Slideshow Archive at Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog