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Economic growth on a finite
planet – status quo and
perspectives
Irmi Seidl
Swiss Research Institute WSL
2
Content
1. Earth – a materially closed system
2. Anthropocene: transgression of planetary boundaries
3. Exponential growth in human impacts
4. Footprint - measurement of human impact
5. The energy question
6. Major environmental objectives
22/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
3
1. Earth – a materially closed system
3
Radiation of sun Heat
Stock of energy and materials is limited
4
From an empty to a full world
Herman Daly
522/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
2. Anthropocene
622/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
2. Anthropocene
Human activities
- have significant global impact on the Earth's ecosystems
- influence land use, ecosystems, biodiversity, and atmosphere
- impact irreversibly
- constitute a new geological epoch
1873 first evocation of 'anthropozoic era‘ by Italian geologist
Antonio Stoppani
722/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
Rockströmetal.2009,Nature,Vol461,24Sept.,p.472ff.
8
8
www.newscientist.com/article/dn14950-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html(13.11.13)
3. Exponential growth in human impacts
9
9
www.newscientist.com/article/dn14950-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html(13.11.13)
10
UNEP 2011, following Krausmann et al. 2009
1122/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
1222/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
Limits to growth – scenarios verified?
Turner,2012
1322/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
4. Footprint - Measurements of human impacts
in EEA countries
14
14
15
R² = 0.6408
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
GPDperhead[US$]
Ecological Footprint [Gha]
Correlation GDP/head and ecological footprint/head
Asien
Afrika
Europa
Südamerika/Karibik
Nordamerika
Ozeanien
Welt
1.8 Gha (Total Biocapacity/cap)
Data: Ecological Footprint (www.footprintnetwork.org), World Bank; Data for 2010
(http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD)
Ita
1622/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
1722/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
5. The energy question
18
18
Murphy/Hall2010,S.109
19
Law of Entropy
20
20
Prices in last century
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Resource Revolution. Tracking global commodity markets, Sept. 13, S. 6
21
6. Major environmental objectives
Rise in global temperature max 2-2.4 C
Reduce European CO2-emission by 85-95% by 2050
Sustainable resource use
Reduce European resource consumption by 80-90% by 2050
22/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
2222/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
2322/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
2422/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere
25
Challenge and task: Produce and consume for a
future within limits
22/24 maggio 2014 - Quale Economia, per quale Benessere

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Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5OYmRyfXBY