This analysis compares some data areas - Economy, Crime, Aviation, Energy, Transport, Health, Mortality. Housing and Construction - for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020, illustrating the changes that have occurred between the two years. It shows some of the impacts of COVID-19 and of actions taken in response to it, such as the various lockdowns and other restrictions.
The first lockdown clearly had major changes on many aspects of Irish society. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will have as great an impact as the first lockdown.
The consequences of the events and actions that have causes these impacts could be felt for some time into the future.
Ireland 2019 and 2020 Compared - Individual ChartsAlan McSweeney
This analysis compares some data areas - Economy, Crime, Aviation, Energy, Transport, Health, Mortality. Housing and Construction - for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020, illustrating the changes that have occurred between the two years. It shows some of the impacts of COVID-19 and of actions taken in response to it, such as the various lockdowns and other restrictions.
The first lockdown clearly had major changes on many aspects of Irish society. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will have as great an impact as the first lockdown.
The consequences of the events and actions that have causes these impacts could be felt for some time into the future.
Comparison of COVID-19 Mortality Data and Deaths for Ireland March 2020 – Mar...Alan McSweeney
This document compares published COVID-19 mortality statistics for Ireland with publicly available mortality data extracted from informal public data sources. This mortality data is taken from published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie. This is used a substitute for poor quality and long-delayed officially published mortality statistics.
Death notice information on the web site www.rip.ie is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data and the level of detail is very low. However, the extraction of death notice data and its conversion into a usable and accurate format requires a great deal of processing.
The objective of this analysis is to assess the accuracy of published COVID-19 mortality statistics by comparing trends in mortality over the years 2014 to 2020 with both numbers of deaths recorded from 2020 to 2021 and the COVID-19 statistics. It compares number of deaths for the seven 13-month intervals:
1. Mar 2014 - Mar 2015
2. Mar 2015 - Mar 2016
3. Mar 2016 - Mar 2017
4. Mar 2017 - Mar 2018
5. Mar 2018 - Mar 2019
6. Mar 2019 - Mar 2020
7. Mar 2020 - Mar 2021
It focuses on the seventh interval which is when COVID-19 deaths have occurred. It combines an analysis of mortality trends with details on COVID-19 deaths. This is a fairly simplistic analysis that looks to cross-check COVID-19 death statistics using data from other sources.
The subject of what constitutes a death from COVID-19 is controversial. This analysis is not concerned with addressing this controversy. It is concerned with comparing mortality data from a number of sources to identify potential discrepancies. It may be the case that while the total apparent excess number of deaths over an interval is less than the published number of COVID-19 deaths, the consequence of COVID-19 is to accelerate deaths that might have occurred later in the measurement interval.
Accurate data is needed to make informed decisions. Clearly there are issues with Irish COVID-19 mortality data. Accurate data is also needed to ensure public confidence in decision-making. Where this published data is inaccurate, this can lead of a loss of this confidence that can exploited.
Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020Alan McSweeney
This describes the use of published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie as a substitute to officially published mortality statistics. This analysis uses data from RIP.ie for the years 2014 to 2020.
Death notice information is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data.
Estimating The Size of the Irish PopulationAlan McSweeney
The various sources of population-related data are inconsistent with one another. There has been past issues with determining the extent of immigration. This in turn creates an issue with the size of the population of Ireland.
This analysis has identified one possible set of inconsistencies relating to the size of the Irish population. It may well be that the population of Ireland is greater that than counted by the CSO in the census.
Population sizes at various ages determine the demand for different societal resources. People are, after all, the direct and indirect buyers and users of products and services, both public and private sector. People drive demand. Changes in the profile of people – numbers and ages – will change the demand profile.
Discrepancies between other data sources from which population data can be inferred and the CSO’s population data indicate that there may be ongoing errors.
Consistency checking between multiple sets of related data is a standard technique to identify potential quality data issues that should then be the subject of further analysis. Detailed consistency checking is hampered by the limited set of information made publically available by various state agencies.
This analysis has looked at the following sets of data with a view to identifying potential data conflicts:
1. DEASP PPSN Registration Numbers
2. CSO PPSN Numbers
3. CSO Migration Numbers
4. CSO Population Numbers
5. Revenue Income Tax Numbers
6. Department of Education Third-Level Numbers
7. DEASP Pensioner Numbers
8. DEASP Live Register/Disability/Work Activation Numbers
9. Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics
The purpose of this analysis is to assess trends in residential renting and rent prices.
This is a macro-level analysis based on a variety of publically available data sources.
The issue of prices for rental property in Ireland and, more particularly in Dublin and the other larger cities, and their rate of increase have dominated property-related discussions.
The data publically available on residential renting is patch, disparate and, in some case, of poor quality.
All the rent indices demonstrate the same pattern of increase.
Demand for rental properties is driven by increased population. A large part of the population increase in the renting age groups is due to net immigration who almost exclusively rent. It may also be that the recorded population number underestimates the actual population and thus the actual demand for rented accommodation
Most renters are aged between 25 to 44 – 60.7% in 2011 and 60.5% in 2016.
Nationally private landlords accounted for 68.0% of lettings in 2011 and 65.9% in 2016. In Dublin private landlords accounted 71.1% in 2011 and 69.3% in 2016.
RTB has records for 124,574 tenancies in the Dublin area with 272,981 bedrooms in March 2017. This excludes Local Authorities and a range of holiday, informal and family property lettings. The number of tenancies registered with the RTB has increased slightly indicating no drop in supply.
In the five and half years from Jun 2012 to Dec 2017, the number of BTL mortgages dropper by 27,821 or 18.52%. The number of repossessions in the interval was 4,897. So the number of BTL mortgages is dropping. This may be due to the group of people to who this lending relates – accidental landlords – selling their investment properties.
The last 10 years has seen the growth of the institutional residential property investor, especially in Dublin. Around 75% of large-scale multiple unit residential property purchases occurred in Dublin. These probably represent around 9,500 residential units. This represents a significant change in the rental sector, especially in Dublin.
There is a belief that residential institutional letters change a higher rent than other residential landlords. This may be one driver of increased rents.
In the last nine years, only 15,408 new property purchases were registered in Dublin. This illustrates the lack of new property supply in Dublin to accommodate a growing population and a demand for rental accommodation.
Airbnb rentals represent only 2.45% of the 124,574 registered tenancies and 2.08% of the 272,981 bedrooms in those tenancies and so is not significant.
Problems with availability and affordability of suitable residential rental accommodation represents a potential systemic economic risk.
Analysis of Possible Excess COVID-19 Deaths in Ireland From Jan 2020 to Jun 2020Alan McSweeney
This analysis seeks to determine if there are excess deaths that occurred in Ireland in the interval Jan – Jun 2020 that can be attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths means deaths in excess of the number of expected deaths plus the number of deaths directly attributed to COVID-19. On the other hand a deficiency of deaths would occur when the number of expected deaths plus the number of deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 is less than the actual deaths.
This analysis uses number of deaths taken from the web site RIP.ie to generate an estimate of the number of deaths in Jan – Jun 2020 in the absence of any other official source. The last data extract from the RIP.ie web site was taken on 3 Jul 2020.
The analysis uses historical data from RIP.ie from 2018 and 2019 to assess its accuracy as a data source.
The analysis then uses the following three estimation approaches to assess the excess or deficiency of deaths:
1. The pattern of deaths in 2020 can be compared to previous comparable year or years. The additional COVID-19 deaths can be added to the comparable year and the difference between the expected, actual from RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths can be analysed to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
2. The age-specific mortality rates described on page 16 can be applied to estimates of population numbers to generates an estimate of expected deaths. This can be compared to the actual RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
3. The range of death rates per 1,000 of population as described in Figure 10 on page 16 can be applied to estimates of population numbers to generates an estimate of expected deaths. This can be compared to the actual RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
Ireland 2019 and 2020 Compared - Individual ChartsAlan McSweeney
This analysis compares some data areas - Economy, Crime, Aviation, Energy, Transport, Health, Mortality. Housing and Construction - for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020, illustrating the changes that have occurred between the two years. It shows some of the impacts of COVID-19 and of actions taken in response to it, such as the various lockdowns and other restrictions.
The first lockdown clearly had major changes on many aspects of Irish society. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will have as great an impact as the first lockdown.
The consequences of the events and actions that have causes these impacts could be felt for some time into the future.
Comparison of COVID-19 Mortality Data and Deaths for Ireland March 2020 – Mar...Alan McSweeney
This document compares published COVID-19 mortality statistics for Ireland with publicly available mortality data extracted from informal public data sources. This mortality data is taken from published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie. This is used a substitute for poor quality and long-delayed officially published mortality statistics.
Death notice information on the web site www.rip.ie is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data and the level of detail is very low. However, the extraction of death notice data and its conversion into a usable and accurate format requires a great deal of processing.
The objective of this analysis is to assess the accuracy of published COVID-19 mortality statistics by comparing trends in mortality over the years 2014 to 2020 with both numbers of deaths recorded from 2020 to 2021 and the COVID-19 statistics. It compares number of deaths for the seven 13-month intervals:
1. Mar 2014 - Mar 2015
2. Mar 2015 - Mar 2016
3. Mar 2016 - Mar 2017
4. Mar 2017 - Mar 2018
5. Mar 2018 - Mar 2019
6. Mar 2019 - Mar 2020
7. Mar 2020 - Mar 2021
It focuses on the seventh interval which is when COVID-19 deaths have occurred. It combines an analysis of mortality trends with details on COVID-19 deaths. This is a fairly simplistic analysis that looks to cross-check COVID-19 death statistics using data from other sources.
The subject of what constitutes a death from COVID-19 is controversial. This analysis is not concerned with addressing this controversy. It is concerned with comparing mortality data from a number of sources to identify potential discrepancies. It may be the case that while the total apparent excess number of deaths over an interval is less than the published number of COVID-19 deaths, the consequence of COVID-19 is to accelerate deaths that might have occurred later in the measurement interval.
Accurate data is needed to make informed decisions. Clearly there are issues with Irish COVID-19 mortality data. Accurate data is also needed to ensure public confidence in decision-making. Where this published data is inaccurate, this can lead of a loss of this confidence that can exploited.
Analysis of Irish Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2014-2020Alan McSweeney
This describes the use of published death notices on the web site www.rip.ie as a substitute to officially published mortality statistics. This analysis uses data from RIP.ie for the years 2014 to 2020.
Death notice information is available immediately and contains information at a greater level of detail than published statistics. There is a substantial lag in officially published mortality data.
Estimating The Size of the Irish PopulationAlan McSweeney
The various sources of population-related data are inconsistent with one another. There has been past issues with determining the extent of immigration. This in turn creates an issue with the size of the population of Ireland.
This analysis has identified one possible set of inconsistencies relating to the size of the Irish population. It may well be that the population of Ireland is greater that than counted by the CSO in the census.
Population sizes at various ages determine the demand for different societal resources. People are, after all, the direct and indirect buyers and users of products and services, both public and private sector. People drive demand. Changes in the profile of people – numbers and ages – will change the demand profile.
Discrepancies between other data sources from which population data can be inferred and the CSO’s population data indicate that there may be ongoing errors.
Consistency checking between multiple sets of related data is a standard technique to identify potential quality data issues that should then be the subject of further analysis. Detailed consistency checking is hampered by the limited set of information made publically available by various state agencies.
This analysis has looked at the following sets of data with a view to identifying potential data conflicts:
1. DEASP PPSN Registration Numbers
2. CSO PPSN Numbers
3. CSO Migration Numbers
4. CSO Population Numbers
5. Revenue Income Tax Numbers
6. Department of Education Third-Level Numbers
7. DEASP Pensioner Numbers
8. DEASP Live Register/Disability/Work Activation Numbers
9. Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics
The purpose of this analysis is to assess trends in residential renting and rent prices.
This is a macro-level analysis based on a variety of publically available data sources.
The issue of prices for rental property in Ireland and, more particularly in Dublin and the other larger cities, and their rate of increase have dominated property-related discussions.
The data publically available on residential renting is patch, disparate and, in some case, of poor quality.
All the rent indices demonstrate the same pattern of increase.
Demand for rental properties is driven by increased population. A large part of the population increase in the renting age groups is due to net immigration who almost exclusively rent. It may also be that the recorded population number underestimates the actual population and thus the actual demand for rented accommodation
Most renters are aged between 25 to 44 – 60.7% in 2011 and 60.5% in 2016.
Nationally private landlords accounted for 68.0% of lettings in 2011 and 65.9% in 2016. In Dublin private landlords accounted 71.1% in 2011 and 69.3% in 2016.
RTB has records for 124,574 tenancies in the Dublin area with 272,981 bedrooms in March 2017. This excludes Local Authorities and a range of holiday, informal and family property lettings. The number of tenancies registered with the RTB has increased slightly indicating no drop in supply.
In the five and half years from Jun 2012 to Dec 2017, the number of BTL mortgages dropper by 27,821 or 18.52%. The number of repossessions in the interval was 4,897. So the number of BTL mortgages is dropping. This may be due to the group of people to who this lending relates – accidental landlords – selling their investment properties.
The last 10 years has seen the growth of the institutional residential property investor, especially in Dublin. Around 75% of large-scale multiple unit residential property purchases occurred in Dublin. These probably represent around 9,500 residential units. This represents a significant change in the rental sector, especially in Dublin.
There is a belief that residential institutional letters change a higher rent than other residential landlords. This may be one driver of increased rents.
In the last nine years, only 15,408 new property purchases were registered in Dublin. This illustrates the lack of new property supply in Dublin to accommodate a growing population and a demand for rental accommodation.
Airbnb rentals represent only 2.45% of the 124,574 registered tenancies and 2.08% of the 272,981 bedrooms in those tenancies and so is not significant.
Problems with availability and affordability of suitable residential rental accommodation represents a potential systemic economic risk.
Analysis of Possible Excess COVID-19 Deaths in Ireland From Jan 2020 to Jun 2020Alan McSweeney
This analysis seeks to determine if there are excess deaths that occurred in Ireland in the interval Jan – Jun 2020 that can be attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths means deaths in excess of the number of expected deaths plus the number of deaths directly attributed to COVID-19. On the other hand a deficiency of deaths would occur when the number of expected deaths plus the number of deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 is less than the actual deaths.
This analysis uses number of deaths taken from the web site RIP.ie to generate an estimate of the number of deaths in Jan – Jun 2020 in the absence of any other official source. The last data extract from the RIP.ie web site was taken on 3 Jul 2020.
The analysis uses historical data from RIP.ie from 2018 and 2019 to assess its accuracy as a data source.
The analysis then uses the following three estimation approaches to assess the excess or deficiency of deaths:
1. The pattern of deaths in 2020 can be compared to previous comparable year or years. The additional COVID-19 deaths can be added to the comparable year and the difference between the expected, actual from RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths can be analysed to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
2. The age-specific mortality rates described on page 16 can be applied to estimates of population numbers to generates an estimate of expected deaths. This can be compared to the actual RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
3. The range of death rates per 1,000 of population as described in Figure 10 on page 16 can be applied to estimates of population numbers to generates an estimate of expected deaths. This can be compared to the actual RIP.ie and actual COVID-19 deaths to generate an estimate of any excess or deficiency.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
How Many Net New Residential Units Are Really Available In Ireland?Alan McSweeney
The CSO announced in June 2018 that they are publishing a new set of data series called New Dwellings Completed. The purpose of this new data is to create realistic statistics on the number of new dwelling completions in Ireland.
Counting the number of new dwellings while important needs to be conducted in a wider context where factors that affect the reduction in the number of dwellings and demographic changes that affect demand for dwellings.
Focussing on the narrow issue of new dwellings may be a distraction on the wider problem of an increasing population and thus a greater demand for residential accommodation and changes that cause a reduction in dwellings.
There was virtually no net increase in the number of dwellings between the 2011 and 2016 census. There was a net increase of just 8,800 new dwellings while the population increased by 348,404.
Based on the assumption that around 85% of the number of planned units become actual units in 15 months, the current stock of planned residential units will translate roughly into just under 25,000 new units by mid-2019. This is a very small increase. This does not take into account any loss of residential housing stock during the same interval.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
It is likely that the impending trade war will be limited to individual product groups. If so, growth will continue in Finland this and the next year. The economic recovery shows that Finland has not been endowed with the exceptionally serious structural problems as alleged. Because of spending cuts and other measures, the strong economic development will not improve the situation of all population groups equally. The growth of income inequality should be mitigated by updating basic social security, which would include index adjustments of benefits no later than 2019.
As part of its mandate, the A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council continually scans the horizon for developments along the key dimensions of demography, economy, environment, geopolitics, governance, resources, and technology. In assessing this wide range of dimensions, the Council keeps its finger on the pulse of events and trends that are likely to affect the external operating environment. We use the insights gleaned to help business leaders and strategic planners be mindful of likely near-term developments that could affect their industries broadly and their companies specifically.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Laboratory Services | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Laboratory Services Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industrySaidh KESSACI
Impacts of COVID-19 on electric and natural gas utilities in early April. The report reflects a review of many sources of information, with public health, economic, and industry data changing considerably day by day. The goal is to make a broad overview of energy industry implications available in one document.
Provisional estimates of GDP for fy 2018 19 and final estimates of GDP for fy...Md. Mamun Hasan Biddut
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh GDP grew by 5.24 per cent during 2019-20 raising the per capita income by US$155 to US$2,064. This growth rate has been achieved when the global economy is contracting, in particular the whole developed world where according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major economies are expected to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. The World Bank GDP projection for 2020 predicts a fall by 2.5 per cent for developing countries and 1.8 per cent for developed countries. Even the neighboring country India recorded a contraction of the economy by 23.9 per cent during the April-June quarter of 2020.
This growth rate is also much above the economic growth forecast provided for Bangladesh by the World Bank (WB) at 1.6 percent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 3.8 percent and Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 4.5 percent for 2020. While these forecast figures are for the calendar year 2020, but the BBS growth figure is for the 2019-20 financial year. In fact, the Bangladesh government believes that the economy is on track to achieve 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2020-21 and also expects the economy to rebound at a higher pace than before after the pandemic is over (FE, August, 28). There is an implicit message that the economy is not only trekking back to pre-pandemic levels but also will surpass that.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
How Many Net New Residential Units Are Really Available In Ireland?Alan McSweeney
The CSO announced in June 2018 that they are publishing a new set of data series called New Dwellings Completed. The purpose of this new data is to create realistic statistics on the number of new dwelling completions in Ireland.
Counting the number of new dwellings while important needs to be conducted in a wider context where factors that affect the reduction in the number of dwellings and demographic changes that affect demand for dwellings.
Focussing on the narrow issue of new dwellings may be a distraction on the wider problem of an increasing population and thus a greater demand for residential accommodation and changes that cause a reduction in dwellings.
There was virtually no net increase in the number of dwellings between the 2011 and 2016 census. There was a net increase of just 8,800 new dwellings while the population increased by 348,404.
Based on the assumption that around 85% of the number of planned units become actual units in 15 months, the current stock of planned residential units will translate roughly into just under 25,000 new units by mid-2019. This is a very small increase. This does not take into account any loss of residential housing stock during the same interval.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
It is likely that the impending trade war will be limited to individual product groups. If so, growth will continue in Finland this and the next year. The economic recovery shows that Finland has not been endowed with the exceptionally serious structural problems as alleged. Because of spending cuts and other measures, the strong economic development will not improve the situation of all population groups equally. The growth of income inequality should be mitigated by updating basic social security, which would include index adjustments of benefits no later than 2019.
As part of its mandate, the A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council continually scans the horizon for developments along the key dimensions of demography, economy, environment, geopolitics, governance, resources, and technology. In assessing this wide range of dimensions, the Council keeps its finger on the pulse of events and trends that are likely to affect the external operating environment. We use the insights gleaned to help business leaders and strategic planners be mindful of likely near-term developments that could affect their industries broadly and their companies specifically.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Laboratory Services | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Laboratory Services Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industrySaidh KESSACI
Impacts of COVID-19 on electric and natural gas utilities in early April. The report reflects a review of many sources of information, with public health, economic, and industry data changing considerably day by day. The goal is to make a broad overview of energy industry implications available in one document.
Provisional estimates of GDP for fy 2018 19 and final estimates of GDP for fy...Md. Mamun Hasan Biddut
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh GDP grew by 5.24 per cent during 2019-20 raising the per capita income by US$155 to US$2,064. This growth rate has been achieved when the global economy is contracting, in particular the whole developed world where according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major economies are expected to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. The World Bank GDP projection for 2020 predicts a fall by 2.5 per cent for developing countries and 1.8 per cent for developed countries. Even the neighboring country India recorded a contraction of the economy by 23.9 per cent during the April-June quarter of 2020.
This growth rate is also much above the economic growth forecast provided for Bangladesh by the World Bank (WB) at 1.6 percent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 3.8 percent and Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 4.5 percent for 2020. While these forecast figures are for the calendar year 2020, but the BBS growth figure is for the 2019-20 financial year. In fact, the Bangladesh government believes that the economy is on track to achieve 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2020-21 and also expects the economy to rebound at a higher pace than before after the pandemic is over (FE, August, 28). There is an implicit message that the economy is not only trekking back to pre-pandemic levels but also will surpass that.
By Muhammad Saad Moeen, Zeeshan Haider, Sania Haider Shikoh, Noormah Rizwan, Amna Ejaz, Stephen Davies and Abdul Wajid Rana
This presentation has been developed under the Pakistan Agriculture Capacity Enhancement (PACE) program funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Updated: December 30, 2020
This Memorandum summarizes an overview of economy for the year 2015-2016 and the important changes proposed through the Finance Bill 2016. It contains comments on the budget and on the Finance Bill 2016, including highlights of the changes brought through the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001, the Sales Tax Act, 1990, the Federal Excise Act, 2005, the Customs Act, 1969, the Islamabad Capital Territory (Tax on Services) Ordinance, 2001 and Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005. The amendments proposed through the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 and through other laws are intended to be effective once the parliament has accorded its assent and thereafter, would be effective from July 01, 2016 i.e. tax year 2017 unless otherwise indicated.
This Memorandum is intended to provide general guidance to the readers on the important changes brought through the Bill and should not be considered as a substitute for specific advice relating to a particular enactment. For considering the precise effect of a proposed change, reference should be made to the appropriate wordings in the relevant statutes and the notifications issued where relevant.
Presentation titled, COVID-19: Implications and Policy Responses for the Caribbean,' delivered by CDB's Deputy Director, Economics Department, Ian Durant at the 31st Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Heads of Government on April 15, 2020.
One Coventry Plan 2020-21 Annual Report PresentationSi Chun Lam
Slides from my presentation of the Coventry City Council One Coventry Plan 2020-21 Annual Report to Scrutiny Co-ordination Committee on 21 July 2021 and Cabinet on 31 August 2021. Full report at https://smarturl.it/CovPerf2021
After a sluggish recovery in 2021 pressured by the outbreak of the Delta variant, CLMV economies are expected to see a stronger recovery in 2022 supported by higher vaccination rates, resilient exports, and a gradual return of international tourists.
On the domestic front, higher vaccination rates have allowed authorities to relax lockdown measures, supporting a gradual domestic demand recovery. Officially confirmed COVID-19 cases have plummeted in Cambodia and Myanmar, while Laos and Vietnam have seen steady declines. Recent COVID-19 restrictions have been less stringent than in the past as CLMV economies adapt to living with COVID-19 and resort to partial lockdowns instead of nationwide lockdowns. Additional fiscal stimulus is expected to shore up domestic demand in Cambodia and Vietnam due to their adequate fiscal space, whereas Laos and Myanmar’s space for fiscal stimulus are more limited. Nonetheless, scarring effects from the pandemic would remain a drag on economic activity particularly through elevated unemployment rates and weakening household incomes.
On the external front, continued global economic growth and border reopening should underpin external demand recovery, supporting exports and foreign investment. CLMV exports are expected to see continued growth in 2022, albeit at a slower pace than 2021, as global demand for goods remains resilient especially for electronics and work-from-home products related to new lifestyles. With a lower economic uncertainty, FDI inflows should gradually return to the region aided by easing border restrictions and shortened quarantine requirements. Foreign trade and investment into the region would also benefit from RCEP which became effective in January. Despite that, the Omicron outbreak remains uncertain, and a prolonged spread would pose downside risks for external demand through possible supply chain disruptions.
Border reopening would also allow tourists to return gradually, with stronger growth expected in the second half of 2022 as Omicron concerns abate. However, Chinese tourists, which constitute a dominant share of international tourism in the region, are still barred by tight border restrictions. With China’s Zero-Covid policy and high transmissibility of the Omicron variant, EIC believes China’s border reopening for international tourism will be delayed to late-2022 or may be put off until 2023.
Factors to watch for CLMV economies in 2022 include 1) the Omicron variant or other emerging variants and risks of additional outbreaks, 2) vaccination progress and plans to ease border and mobility restrictions, and 3) fiscal and financial stability, particularly in Laos and Myanmar, amid higher public debt burden and monetary tightening in developed economies. Country-specific factors are also important to monitor, including the political situation in Myanmar and the recent opening of the Boten-Vientiane railway in Laos.
Arthur D. Little - Covid19 impact on automotive industry_update June 2020Fabrizio Arena
Estimates of the impact of the crisis on the automotive market continue to deteriorate with a forecast for 2020 of -22,3% compared to 2019 volumes on a global scale with key markets such as Europe and the US particularly impacted (-24,9% and -26,6% respectively). The recovery will be long and will take 2-3 years
Also prolonged factories’ shutdowns (gradually reopened between April and May) have led to a further contraction in production forecasts for 2020 (-22% compared to 2019) with a consequent negative impact on vehicles’ delivery times that are expected to add complexity to the market recovery
Etude PwC Low Carbon Economy Index (oct. 2015)PwC France
L'année 2014 a marqué un tournant en matière de réduction des émissions de carbone dans les économies du G20. C’est ce que révèle le cabinet d’audit et de conseil PwC dans la 7ème édition de son étude annuelle « Low carbon Economy index », qui modélise l'intensité carbone des grandes économies – à savoir les émissions des gaz à effet de serre liées à la consommation d'énergie par million de dollars de PIB. En effet, l'intensité carbone a chuté de 2,7% en 2014, soit sa plus forte baisse depuis 2000.
La France fait office d’exemple : elle a réduit son intensité carbone de plus de 9% en 2014, ce qui représente la 2ème plus forte réduction des pays du G20, juste derrière le Royaume-Uni (- 10,9%).
Similar to Ireland – 2019 And 2020 Compared In Data (20)
The data architecture of solutions is frequently not given the attention it deserves or needs. Frequently, too little attention is paid to designing and specifying the data architecture within individual solutions and their constituent components. This is due to the behaviours of both solution architects ad data architects.
Solution architecture tends to concern itself with functional, technology and software components of the solution
Data architecture tends not to get involved with the data aspects of technology solutions, leaving a data architecture gap. Combined with the gap where data architecture tends not to get involved with the data aspects of technology solutions, there is also frequently a solution architecture data gap. Solution architecture also frequently omits the detail of data aspects of solutions leading to a solution data architecture gap. These gaps result in a data blind spot for the organisation.
Data architecture tends to concern itself with post-individual solutions. Data architecture needs to shift left into the domain of solutions and their data and more actively engage with the data dimensions of individual solutions. Data architecture can provide the lead in sealing these data gaps through a shift-left of its scope and activities as well providing standards and common data tooling for solution data architecture
The objective of data design for solutions is the same as that for overall solution design:
• To capture sufficient information to enable the solution design to be implemented
• To unambiguously define the data requirements of the solution and to confirm and agree those requirements with the target solution consumers
• To ensure that the implemented solution meets the requirements of the solution consumers and that no deviations have taken place during the solution implementation journey
Solution data architecture avoids problems with solution operation and use:
• Poor and inconsistent data quality
• Poor performance, throughput, response times and scalability
• Poorly designed data structures can lead to long data update times leading to long response times, affecting solution usability, loss of productivity and transaction abandonment
• Poor reporting and analysis
• Poor data integration
• Poor solution serviceability and maintainability
• Manual workarounds for data integration, data extract for reporting and analysis
Data-design-related solution problems frequently become evident and manifest themselves only after the solution goes live. The benefits of solution data architecture are not always evident initially.
Solution Architecture and Solution Estimation.pdfAlan McSweeney
Solution architects and the solution architecture function are ideally placed to create solution delivery estimates
Solution architects have the knowledge and understanding of the solution constituent component and structure that is needed to create solution estimate:
• Knowledge of solution options
• Knowledge of solution component structure to define a solution breakdown structure
• Knowledge of available components and the options for reuse
• Knowledge of specific solution delivery constraints and standards that both control and restrain solution options
Accurate solution delivery estimates are need to understand the likely cost/resources/time/options needed to implement a new solution within the context of a range of solutions and solution options. These estimates are a key input to investment management and making effective decisions on the portfolio of solutions to implement. They enable informed decision-making as part of IT investment management.
An estimate is not a single value. It is a range of values depending on a number of conditional factors such level of knowledge, certainty, complexity and risk. The range will narrow as the level of knowledge and uncertainty decreases
There is no easy or magic way to create solution estimates. You have to engage with the complexity of the solution and its components. The more effort that is expended the more accurate the results of the estimation process will be. But there is always a need to create estimates (reasonably) quickly so a balance is needed between effort and quality of results.
The notes describe a structured solution estimation process and an associated template. They also describe the wider context of solution estimates in terms of IT investment and value management and control.
Validating COVID-19 Mortality Data and Deaths for Ireland March 2020 – March ...Alan McSweeney
This analysis seeks to validate published COVID-19 mortality statistics using mortality data derived from general mortality statistics, mortality estimated from population size and mortality rates and death notice data
Analysis of the Numbers of Catholic Clergy and Members of Religious in Irelan...Alan McSweeney
This analysis looks at the changes in the numbers of priests and nuns in Ireland for the years 1926 to 2016. It combines data from a range of sources to show the decline in the numbers of priests and nuns and their increasing age profile.
This analysis consists of the following sections:
• Summary - this highlights some of the salient points in the analysis.
• Overview of Analysis - this describes the approach taken in this analysis.
• Context – this provides background information on the number of Catholics in Ireland as a context to this analysis.
• Analysis of Census Data 1926 – 2016 - this analyses occupation age profile data for priests and nuns. It also includes sample projections on the numbers of priests and nuns.
• Analysis of Catholic Religious Mortality 2014-2021 - this analyses death notice data from RIP.ie to shows the numbers of priests and nuns that have died in the years 2014 to 2021. It also looks at deaths of Irish priests and nuns outside Ireland and at the numbers of countries where Irish priests and nuns have worked.
• Analysis of Data on Catholic Clergy From Other Sources - this analyses data on priests and nuns from other sources.
• Notes on Data Sources and Data Processing - this lists the data sources used in this analysis.
IT Architecture’s Role In Solving Technical Debt.pdfAlan McSweeney
Technical debt is an overworked term without an effective and common agreed understanding of what exactly it is, what causes it, what are its consequences, how to assess it and what to do about it.
Technical debt is the sum of additional direct and indirect implementation and operational costs incurred and risks and vulnerabilities created because of sub-optimal solution design and delivery decisions.
Technical debt is the sum of all the consequences of all the circumventions, budget reduction, time pressure, lack of knowledge, manual workarounds, short-cuts, avoidance, poor design and delivery quality and decisions to remove elements from solution scope and failure to provide foundational and backbone solution infrastructure.
Technical debt leads to a negative feedback cycle with short solution lifespan, earlier solution replacement and short-term tactical remedial actions.
All the disciplines within IT architecture have a role to play in promoting an understanding of and in the identification of how to resolve technical debt. IT architecture can provide the leadership in both remediating existing technical debt and preventing future debt.
Failing to take a complete view of the technical debt within the organisation means problems and risks remained unrecognised and unaddressed. The real scope of the problem is substantially underestimated. Technical debt is always much more than poorly written software.
Technical debt can introduce security risks and vulnerabilities into the organisation’s solution landscape. Failure to address technical debt leaves exploitable security risks and vulnerabilities in place.
Shadow IT or ghost IT is a largely unrecognised source of technical debt including security risks and vulnerabilities. Shadow IT is the consequence of a set of reactions by business functions to an actual or perceived inability or unwillingness of the IT function to respond to business needs for IT solutions. Shadow IT is frequently needed to make up for gaps in core business solutions, supplementing incomplete solutions and providing omitted functionality.
Solution Architecture And Solution SecurityAlan McSweeney
This describes an approach to embedding security within the technology solution landscape. It describes a security model that encompasses the range of individual solution components up to the entire solution landscape. The solution security model allows the security status of a solution and its constituent delivery and operational components to be tracked wherever those components are located. This provides an integrated approach to solution security across all solution components and across the entire organisation topology of solutions. It allows the solution architect to validate the security of an individual solution. It enables the security status of the entire solution landscape to be assessed and recorded. Solution security is a wicked problem because there is no certainly about when the problem has been resolved and a state of security has been achieved. The security state of a solution can just be expressed along a subjective spectrum of better or worse rather than a binary true or false. Solution security can have negative consequences: prevents types of access, limits availability in different ways, restricts functionality provided, makes solution harder to use, lengthens solution delivery times, increases costs along the entire solution lifecycle, leads to loss of usability, utility and rate of use.
Data Privatisation, Data Anonymisation, Data Pseudonymisation and Differentia...Alan McSweeney
This paper describes how technologies such as data pseudonymisation and differential privacy technology enables access to sensitive data and unlocks data opportunities and value while ensuring compliance with data privacy legislation and regulations.
Data Privatisation, Data Anonymisation, Data Pseudonymisation and Differentia...Alan McSweeney
Your data has value to your organisation and to relevant data sharing partners. It has been expensively obtained. It represents a valuable asset on which a return must be generated. To achieve the value inherent in the data you need to be able to make it appropriately available to others, both within and outside the organisation.
Organisations are frequently data rich and information poor, lacking the skills, experience and resources to convert raw data into value.
These notes outline technology approaches to achieving compliance with data privacy regulations and legislation while providing access to data.
There are different routes to making data accessible and shareable within and outside the organisation without compromising compliance with data protection legislation and regulations and removing the risk associated with allowing access to personal data:
• Differential Privacy – source data is summarised and individual personal references are removed. The one-to-one correspondence between original and transformed data has been removed
• Anonymisation – identifying data is destroyed and cannot be recovered so individual cannot be identified. There is still a one-to-one correspondence between original and transformed data
• Pseudonymisation – identifying data is encrypted and recovery data/token is stored securely elsewhere. There is still a one-to-one correspondence between original and transformed data
These technologies and approaches are not mutually exclusive – each is appropriate to differing data sharing and data access use cases
The data privacy regulatory and legislative landscape is complex and getting even more complex so an approach to data access and sharing that embeds compliance as a matter of course is required.
Appropriate technology appropriately implemented and operated is a means of managing and reducing risks of re-identification by making the time, skills, resources and money necessary to achieve this unrealistic.
Technology is part of a risk management approach to data privacy. There is wider operational data sharing and data privacy framework that includes technology aspects, among other key areas. Using these technologies will embed such compliance by design into your data sharing and access facilities. This will allow you to realise value from your data successfully.
Solution architects must be aware of the need for solution security and of the need to have enterprise-level controls that solutions can adopt.
The sets of components that comprise the extended solution landscape, including those components that provide common or shared functionality, are located in different zones, each with different security characteristics.
The functional and operational design of any solution and therefore its security will include many of these components, including those inherited by the solution or common components used by the solution.
The complete solution security view should refer explicitly to the components and their controls.
While each individual solution should be able to inherit the security controls provided by these components, the solution design should include explicit reference to them for completeness and to avoid unvalidated assumptions.
There is a common and generalised set of components, many of which are shared, within the wider solution topology that should be considered when assessing overall solution architecture and solution security.
Individual solutions must be able to inherit security controls, facilities and standards from common enterprise-level controls, standards, toolsets and frameworks.
Individual solutions must not be forced to implement individual infrastructural security facilities and controls. This is wasteful of solution implementation resources, results in multiple non-standard approaches to security and represents a security risk to the organisation.
The extended solution landscape potentially consists of a large number of interacting components and entities located in different zones, each with different security profiles, requirements and concerns. Different security concerns and therefore controls apply to each of these components.
Solution security is not covered by a single control. It involves multiple overlapping sets of controls providing layers of security.
Solution Architecture And (Robotic) Process Automation SolutionsAlan McSweeney
Automation is a technology trend IT architects should be aware of and know how to respond to business requests as well as recommend automation technologies and solutions where appropriate. Automation is a bigger topic than just RPA (Robotic Process Automation).
Automation solutions, like all other technology solutions, should be subject to an architecture and design process. There are many approaches to and options for the automation of business activities. Too often automation solutions are tactical applications layered over existing business systems
The objective of all IT solutions is to automate manual business processes and their activities to a certain extent. The requirement for RPA-type applications arises in part because of automation failures within existing applications or the need to automate the interactions with or integrations between separate, possibly legacy, applications.
One of the roles of IT architecture is to always seek to take the wider architectural view and to ensure that solutions are designed and delivered within a strategic framework to avoid, as much as is practical and realistic, short-term tactical solutions and approaches that lead to an accumulation of design, operations and support debt. Tactical solutions will always play a part in the organisation’s solution landscape.
The objective of these notes is to put automation into its wider and larger IT architecture context while accepting the need for tactical approaches in some instances.
These notes cover the following topics:
• Solution And Process Automation – The Wider Technology And Approach Landscape
• Business Processes, Business Solutions And Automation
• Organisation Process Model
• Strategic And Tactical Automation
• Deciding On The Scope Of Automation
• Digital Strategy, Digital Transformation And Automation
• Specifying The Automation Solution
• Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN)
• Sample Business Process – Order To Cash
• RPA (Robotic Process Automation)
Data Profiling, Data Catalogs and Metadata HarmonisationAlan McSweeney
These notes discuss the related topics of Data Profiling, Data Catalogs and Metadata Harmonisation. It describes a detailed structure for data profiling activities. It identifies various open source and commercial tools and data profiling algorithms. Data profiling is a necessary pre-requisite activity in order to construct a data catalog. A data catalog makes an organisation’s data more discoverable. The data collected during data profiling forms the metadata contained in the data catalog. This assists with ensuring data quality. It is also a necessary activity for Master Data Management initiatives. These notes describe a metadata structure and provide details on metadata standards and sources.
Analysis of Decentralised, Distributed Decision-Making For Optimising Domesti...Alan McSweeney
This analysis looks at the potential impact that large numbers of electric vehicles could have on electricity demand, electricity generation capacity and on the electricity transmission and distribution grid in Ireland. It combines data from a number of sources – electricity usage patterns, vehicle usage patterns, electric vehicle current and possible future market share – to assess the potential impact of electric vehicles.
It then analyses a possible approach to electric vehicle charging where the domestic charging unit has some degree of decentralised intelligence and decision-making capability in deciding when to start vehicle charging to minimise electricity usage impact and optimise electricity generation usage.
The potential problem to be addressed is that if large numbers of electric cars are plugged-in and charging starts immediately when the drivers of those cars arrive home, the impact on demand for electricity will be substantial.
Operational Risk Management Data Validation ArchitectureAlan McSweeney
This describes a structured approach to validating data used to construct and use an operational risk model. It details an integrated approach to operational risk data involving three components:
1. Using the Open Group FAIR (Factor Analysis of Information Risk) risk taxonomy to create a risk data model that reflects the required data needed to assess operational risk
2. Using the DMBOK model to define a risk data capability framework to assess the quality and accuracy of risk data
3. Applying standard fault analysis approaches - Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) - to the risk data capability framework to understand the possible causes of risk data failures within the risk model definition, operation and use
Data Integration, Access, Flow, Exchange, Transfer, Load And Extract Architec...Alan McSweeney
These notes describe a generalised data integration architecture framework and set of capabilities.
With many organisations, data integration tends to have evolved over time with many solution-specific tactical approaches implemented. The consequence of this is that there is frequently a mixed, inconsistent data integration topography. Data integrations are often poorly understood, undocumented and difficult to support, maintain and enhance.
Data interoperability and solution interoperability are closely related – you cannot have effective solution interoperability without data interoperability.
Data integration has multiple meanings and multiple ways of being used such as:
- Integration in terms of handling data transfers, exchanges, requests for information using a variety of information movement technologies
- Integration in terms of migrating data from a source to a target system and/or loading data into a target system
- Integration in terms of aggregating data from multiple sources and creating one source, with possibly date and time dimensions added to the integrated data, for reporting and analytics
- Integration in terms of synchronising two data sources or regularly extracting data from one data sources to update a target
- Integration in terms of service orientation and API management to provide access to raw data or the results of processing
There are two aspects to data integration:
1. Operational Integration – allow data to move from one operational system and its data store to another
2. Analytic Integration – move data from operational systems and their data stores into a common structure for analysis
Review of Information Technology Function Critical Capability ModelsAlan McSweeney
IT Function critical capabilities are key areas where the IT function needs to maintain significant levels of competence, skill and experience and practise in order to operate and deliver a service. There are several different IT capability frameworks. The objective of these notes is to assess the suitability and applicability of these frameworks. These models can be used to identify what is important for your IT function based on your current and desired/necessary activity profile.
Capabilities vary across organisation – not all capabilities have the same importance for all organisations. These frameworks do not readily accommodate variability in the relative importance of capabilities.
The assessment approach taken is to identify a generalised set of capabilities needed across the span of IT function operations, from strategy to operations and delivery. This generic model is then be used to assess individual frameworks to determine their scope and coverage and to identify gaps.
The generic IT function capability model proposed here consists of five groups or domains of major capabilities that can be organised across the span of the IT function:
1. Information Technology Strategy, Management and Governance
2. Technology and Platforms Standards Development and Management
3. Technology and Solution Consulting and Delivery
4. Operational Run The Business/Business as Usual/Service Provision
5. Change The Business/Development and Introduction of New Services
In the context of trends and initiatives such as outsourcing, transition to cloud services and greater platform-based offerings, should the IT function develop and enhance its meta-capabilities – the management of the delivery of capabilities? Is capability identification and delivery management the most important capability? Outsourced service delivery in all its forms is not a fire-and-forget activity. You can outsource the provision of any service except the management of the supply of that service.
The following IT capability models have been evaluated:
• IT4IT Reference Architecture https://www.opengroup.org/it4it contains 32 functional components
• European e-Competence Framework (ECF) http://www.ecompetences.eu/ contains 40 competencies
• ITIL V4 https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solutions/itil has 34 management practices
• COBIT 2019 https://www.isaca.org/resources/cobit has 40 management and control processes
• APQC Process Classification Framework - https://www.apqc.org/process-performance-management/process-frameworks version 7.2.1 has 44 major IT management processes
• IT Capability Maturity Framework (IT-CMF) https://ivi.ie/critical-capabilities/ contains 37 critical capabilities
The following model has not been evaluated
• Skills Framework for the Information Age (SFIA) - http://www.sfia-online.org/ lists over 100 skills
Critical Review of Open Group IT4IT Reference ArchitectureAlan McSweeney
This reviews the Open Group’s IT4IT Reference Architecture (https://www.opengroup.org/it4it) with respect to other operational frameworks to determine its suitability and applicability to the IT operating function.
IT4IT is intended to be a reference architecture for the management of the IT function. It aims to take a value chain approach to create a model of the functions that IT performs and the services it provides to assist organisations in the identification of the activities that contribute to business competitiveness. It is intended to be an integrated framework for the management of IT that emphasises IT service lifecycles.
This paper reviews what is meant by a value-chain, with special reference to the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model (https://www.apics.org/apics-for-business/frameworks/scor). the most widely used and most comprehensive such model.
The SCOR model is part of wider set of operations reference models that describe a view of the critical elements in a value chain:
• Product Life Cycle Operations Reference model (PLCOR) - Manages the activities for product innovation and product and portfolio management
• Customer Chain Operations Reference model (CCOR) - Manages the customer interaction processes
• Design Chain Operations Reference model (DCOR) - Manages the product and service development processes
• Managing for Supply Chain Performance (M4SC) - Translates business strategies into supply chain execution plans and policies
It also compares the IT4IT Reference Architecture and its 32 functional components to other frameworks that purport to identify the critical capabilities of the IT function:
• IT Capability Maturity Framework (IT-CMF) https://ivi.ie/critical-capabilities/ contains 37 critical capabilities
• Skills Framework for the Information Age (SFIA) - http://www.sfia-online.org/ lists over 100 skills
• European e-Competence Framework (ECF) http://www.ecompetences.eu/ contains 40 competencies
• ITIL IT Service Management https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solutions/itil
• COBIT 2019 https://www.isaca.org/resources/cobit has 40 management and control processes
This presentation describes systematic, repeatable and co-ordinated approach to agile solution architecture and design. It is intended to describe a set of practical steps and activities embedded within a framework to allow an agile method to be adopted and used for solution design and delivery. This approach ensures consistency in the assessment of solution design options and in subsequent solution design and solution delivery activities. This process leads to the rapid design and delivery of realistic and achievable solutions that meet real solution consumer needs. The approach provides for effective solution decision-making. It generates options and results quickly and consistently. Implementing a framework such as this provides for the creation of a knowledgebase of previous solution design and delivery exercises that leads to an accumulated body of knowledge within the organisation.
Solution Architecture and Solution AcquisitionAlan McSweeney
This describes a systematised and structured approach to solution acquisition or procurement that involves solution architecture from the start. This allows the true scope of both the required and subsequently acquired solution are therefore fully understood. By using such an approach, poor solution acquisition outcomes are avoided.
Solution architecture provides the structured approach to capturing all the cost contributors and knowing the true solution scope.
There is more packaged/product/service-based solution acquisition activity. There is an increasing trend of solutions hosted outside the organisation. Meanwhile solution acquisition outcomes are poor and getting worse.
Poor solution acquisition has long-term consequences and costs.
The to-be-acquired solution needs to operate in and co-exist with an existing solution topography and the solution acquisition process needs to be aware of and take account of this wider solution topography. Cloud-based or externally hosted and provided solutions do not eliminate the need for the solution to exist within the organisation solution topography.
Strategic misrepresentation in solution acquisition is the deliberate distortion or falsification of information relating to solution acquisition costs, complexity, required functionality, solution availability, resource availability, time to implement in order to get solution acquisition approval. Strategic misrepresentation is very real and its consequences can be very damaging.
Solution architecture has the skills and experience to define the real scope of the solution being acquired. An effective structured solution acquisition process, well-implemented and consistently applied, means dependable and repeatable solution acquisition and successful outcomes.
Creating A Business Focussed Information Technology StrategyAlan McSweeney
This presentation describes a structured approach to creating a business-focussed information technology strategy.
An effective business-oriented IT strategy is an opportunity to resolve the disconnection and to ensure the IT function is able to and does respond to business needs and is trusted by the business to provide IT solutions.
The IT strategy will consist of static structural elements relating to the organisation of the IT function:
• Capabilities – skills and abilities the IT function should possess and be able to use effectively and efficiently
• IT Function Structure – the organisation and arrangement of the sub-functions and their responsibilities and relationships
• Operating Model – how the IT function work and delivers value and the processes it implements and operates
• Staffing And Roles – the numbers of people, their roles, responsibilities, expected skills, experience and abilities, workload, reporting structures and expected ways of operating
It will also include dynamic elements relating to initiatives, both enabling initiatives within the IT function and specific business initiatives required to achieve the business strategy.
Describing the Organisation Data LandscapeAlan McSweeney
Outlines an Approach to Describing the Organisation Data Landscape to Assist with Data Transformation Analysis and Planning
The Data Landscape is a representation of the organisation’s data entities and their relationships, interfaces and data flows. Data entities are data asset components that perform data-related functions, from data storage to data transfer and data processing within the Data Landscape.
The objective of developing a Data Landscape model is to define an approach for formally and exactly defining the operation and use of data at a high-level within the organisation and to plan for future changes. It allows the enterprise data fabric to be defined and modelled.
Creating a data landscape view is important as data underpins the operation of information technology solutions and business processes. Data breathes life into solutions as its flows through the organisation. The optimum and most cost-effective design of the data landscape is therefore important. Similarly, solutions that are developed or acquired and deployed on the data landscape
The nature of the organisation data landscape is changing as organisations are undergoing a data transformation.
Explore our comprehensive data analysis project presentation on predicting product ad campaign performance. Learn how data-driven insights can optimize your marketing strategies and enhance campaign effectiveness. Perfect for professionals and students looking to understand the power of data analysis in advertising. for more details visit: https://bostoninstituteofanalytics.org/data-science-and-artificial-intelligence/
Data Centers - Striving Within A Narrow Range - Research Report - MCG - May 2...pchutichetpong
M Capital Group (“MCG”) expects to see demand and the changing evolution of supply, facilitated through institutional investment rotation out of offices and into work from home (“WFH”), while the ever-expanding need for data storage as global internet usage expands, with experts predicting 5.3 billion users by 2023. These market factors will be underpinned by technological changes, such as progressing cloud services and edge sites, allowing the industry to see strong expected annual growth of 13% over the next 4 years.
Whilst competitive headwinds remain, represented through the recent second bankruptcy filing of Sungard, which blames “COVID-19 and other macroeconomic trends including delayed customer spending decisions, insourcing and reductions in IT spending, energy inflation and reduction in demand for certain services”, the industry has seen key adjustments, where MCG believes that engineering cost management and technological innovation will be paramount to success.
MCG reports that the more favorable market conditions expected over the next few years, helped by the winding down of pandemic restrictions and a hybrid working environment will be driving market momentum forward. The continuous injection of capital by alternative investment firms, as well as the growing infrastructural investment from cloud service providers and social media companies, whose revenues are expected to grow over 3.6x larger by value in 2026, will likely help propel center provision and innovation. These factors paint a promising picture for the industry players that offset rising input costs and adapt to new technologies.
According to M Capital Group: “Specifically, the long-term cost-saving opportunities available from the rise of remote managing will likely aid value growth for the industry. Through margin optimization and further availability of capital for reinvestment, strong players will maintain their competitive foothold, while weaker players exit the market to balance supply and demand.”
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
Adjusting primitives for graph : SHORT REPORT / NOTESSubhajit Sahu
Graph algorithms, like PageRank Compressed Sparse Row (CSR) is an adjacency-list based graph representation that is
Multiply with different modes (map)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector multiply.
2. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector multiply.
Sum with different storage types (reduce)
1. Performance of vector element sum using float vs bfloat16 as the storage type.
Sum with different modes (reduce)
1. Performance of sequential execution based vs OpenMP based vector element sum.
2. Performance of memcpy vs in-place based CUDA based vector element sum.
3. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (memcpy).
4. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
Sum with in-place strategies of CUDA mode (reduce)
1. Comparing various launch configs for CUDA based vector element sum (in-place).
1. Crime
Crime Classification Group Percentage Change
from 2019 to 2020
Number Change
from 2019 to 2020
01 Homicide Offences 2.78% 2
02 Sexual Offences -7.55% -244
03 Attempts Or Threats To Murder, Assaults, Harassments
And Related Offences
-2.97% -609
04 Dangerous Or Negligent Acts -0.14% -12
05 Kidnapping And Related Offences 1.47% 2
06 Robbery, Extortion And Hijacking Offences -15.02% -363
07 Burglary And Related Offences -21.44% -3,595
08 Theft And Related Offences -15.92% -10,741
09 Fraud, Deception And Related Offences 14.49% 991
10 Controlled Drug Offences 17.63% 3,394
11 Weapons And Explosives Offences 21.84% 544
12 Damage To Property And To The Environment -7.21% -1,567
13 Public Order And Other Social Code Offences -6.84% -2,227
15 Offences Against Government, Justice Procedures And
Organisation Of Crime
-22.72% -3,532
Overall recorded crimes
have reduced by 8.25%
and increased recorded
detection of crimes made
more visible such as drugs
offences.
Crime
Source: Crime statistics are available from
https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/crimeandjustice/archive/
They are available annualised by quarter up to 2020 Q3. There
are reservations about the accuracy of recorded crime statistics.
More details on the classification of crimes is available from
https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/docu
ments/crimejustice/current/crimeclassification.pdf
Aviation
Aviation
``
Economy
Economy
r
Energy Transport
Health Housing And Construction Mortality
Energy Transport
Health
Housing and
Construction
Mortality
Change In Fuel Imports
Between 2019 and 2020
Diesel Petrol
Jan -5.53% -0.42%
Feb -1.40% 3.43%
Mar -21.83% -10.05%
Apr -72.31% -54.56%
May -49.36% -39.42%
Jun -33.26% -17.04%
Jul -15.03% -5.58%
Aug -15.22% -8.23%
Sep -10.79% -2.69%
Oct -29.26% -13.51%
Nov -37.67% -16.75%
Overall -22.10% -32.85%
Fuel Data Not Available For Dec 2020
Change In Fuel Imports
Between 2019 and 2020
Bio LPG Kerosene
Jan 7.65% -5.64%
Feb 3.49% 37.12%
Mar 46.54% 85.33%
Apr -42.69% 71.98%
May -48.88% 142.23%
Jun 51.04% 6.09%
Jul 84.40% 41.26%
Aug 68.06% -35.58%
Sep 51.71% -36.02%
Oct 79.55% -3.15%
Nov 59.01% -14.36%
Overall 19.61% 1.76%
Fuel Data Not Available For Dec 2020
Diesel and petrol imports are significantly down in 2020 when compared to 2019.
For example, comparing April 2019 and 2020, Diesel imports fell by 72.31% and
Petrol by 54.56%. This indicates a significant decrease in all forms of private and
commercial road vehicle usage. Imports of home heating fuels such as Bio LPG
and Kerosene increased significantly indicating more people working or staying
at home and heating their homes. Assuming that all imported fuels are used,
emissions of CO2 from these sources dropped by 10.35% between the intervals
Jan-Nov 2019 and 2020.
The pattern of increasing gas usage from
2017 has been reversed. Gas utilisation is
down slightly in 2020. This can be explained
by any reduction in commercial office usage
being offset by increased use of gas for
domestic heating by people staying at and
working from home.
Patterns of electricity usage
changed during the first
lockdown. Usage peaked more
than a hour later in the
morning.
This changed after the end of
the first lockdown and has not
been repeated. The third
lockdown, not shown in here,
may repeat the pattern of the
first.
Sources:
Electricity System Demand: http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/
Gas: https://www.gasnetworks.ie/corporate/gas-
regulation/transparency-and-publicat/dashboard-reporting/
Petrol and Diesel Imports: https://www.nora.ie/statistics.312.html
Total Flights Across All Three
Airports
2019 2019Change
Jan 19,402 18,801 -3.10%
Feb 17,996 18,026 0.17%
Mar 20,752 14,479 -30.23%
Apr 22,984 2,226 -90.32%
May 25,162 2,399 -90.47%
June 25,436 2,716 -89.32%
July 26,602 7,455 -71.98%
Aug 26,501 9,243 -65.12%
Sept 25,196 7,664 -69.58%
Oct 23,924 6,128 -74.39%
Nov 19,084 3,919 -79.46%
Dec 19,515 4,196 -78.50%
Total 274,573 99,272 -63.84%
Change Between 2019 and 2020
Flights People
(Thousands)
Average
People Per
Flights
Jan -3.10% 1.48% 4.73%
Feb 0.17% 2.28% 2.11%
Mar -30.23% -57.52% -39.12%
Apr -90.32% -99.23% -92.01%
May -90.47% -98.71% -86.46%
June -89.32% -97.52% -76.74%
July -71.98% -89.39% -62.13%
Aug -65.12% -85.33% -57.93%
Sept -69.58% -87.86% -60.09%
Oct -74.39% -91.34% -66.21%
Nov -79.46% -93.19% -66.83%
Dec No Tourism Data Available for Dec
2020
Sources:
Flight Statistics - https://www.iaa.ie/who-we-are/flight-statistics
Tourism Statistics - ASM01 Air and Sea Travel
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/ASM01/
XLSX/2007/en
Inward and outward
air travel fell
dramatically from April
2020 onwards and has
not seen any
significant recovery to
2019 numbers.
The movement of people into and
out of Ireland almost stopped in
April 2020, falling by over 99% when
compared with April 2019.
The average number of people per
flight fell to 11 in April 2020,
compared to 140 in April 2019.
Despite a small increase in July,
August and September 2020, the
number of air travellers has not
increased substantially April 2020.
The average flight occupancy in
November 2020 was 45 compared
with over 130 in November 2019.
Billions
Debt Composition 2020 2019 Change
Government Bonds 136.8 130.1 5.16%
EU and UK Bilateral Loans 41.4 43.3 -4.40%
State Savings Products 18.8 17.8 5.78%
Short Term Paper 14.0 10.0 40.28%
Other Medium and Long Term Debt 4.1 2.6 57.56%
Borrowing from Ministerial Funds 4.3 3.0 44.20%
TOTAL 219.5 206.8 6.13%
Unemployment increased by over 66% since the
middle of the first lockdown and has not reduced
significantly since then.
Government borrowing increased by €12.7
billion by the end of 2020 from the end of 2019.
Credit and Debit Card
Spending Category
Jan-Nov
2019
Jan-Nov
2020
Change
Transport 4,305,905 1,999,097 -53.57%
Accommodation 2,452,974 1,318,723 -46.24%
Outside Ireland 7,115,575 4,569,511 -35.78%
ATM Withdrawals 17,888,583 12,026,606 -32.77%
Restaurants/Dining 3,325,908 2,595,054 -21.97%
Entertainment 1,723,707 1,541,634 -10.56%
Clothing 2,642,842 2,528,263 -4.34%
Health 1,219,494 1,265,970 3.81%
Education 705,706 740,497 4.93%
Professional Services 2,763,483 2,931,889 6.09%
Other 8,269,395 9,576,719 15.81%
E-Commerce 19,861,449 23,096,965 16.29%
Hardware 3,198,365 3,832,080 19.81%
Electrical Goods 1,246,613 1,581,136 26.83%
Groceries/Perishables 9,748,272 12,601,003 29.26%
Utilities 1,998,491 2,635,687 31.88%
Total 88,466,762 84,840,834 -4.10%
The pattern of debit and credit card spending changed from
2019 to 2020. Payments on transport, accommodation, dining
and usage outside Ireland all fell substantially. Payments on
utilities increased indicating the increased home working and
heating of homes.
The pattern
of increasing
GNP has been
reversed in
2020. GNP in
Q3 2020 is 4%
lower than
Q3 2019.
Sources:
Card Spending - https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-
analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/credit-and-debit-card-
statistics
Composition of Debt - https://www.ntma.ie/business-
areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics
Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Unemployment -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDa
taset/MUM01/XLSX/2007/en
GNP - https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/nationalaccounts/archive/
Tax Receipts - http://databank.finance.gov.ie/FinDataBank.aspx
3-6
Months
Queue
0-3
Months
Queue
6-9
Months
Queue
12-15
Months
Queue
9-12
Months
Queue
15-18
Months
Queue
18+
Months
Queue
Source: Waiting List Data -
https://data.ehealthireland.ie/group/ntpf
Reductions in the size of lower waiting list time bands indicates that fewer people are being
admitted to waiting lists because they are not being seen and people not being treated are
moving to longer duration time bands.
Fewer New
Patients
Entering
Waiting
Lists
The total “queue months”
– the aggregate number
of months all patients on
waiting lists (assuming
those in the 0-3 queue
are waiting an average of
1.5 months, etc.) has
increased from an
estimated 8,524,071
queue months to an
estimated 11,172,681
queue months, an overall
increase of 31.07%.
This indicates a double –
few newer patients
being added and
existing patients not
being treated and
waiting longer –
accumulation of latent
and, unfulfilled demand
for health services,
created by deferring
non-COVID-related
treatments, that may be
difficult to process,
leading to worse health
outcomes.
Residential property prices have not been significantly
affected in 2020.
There was a reduction
in planning permissions
granted for residential
properties in the
second quarter of
2020. In the third
quarter, the number
increased to pre-COVID
levels.
The number of building
commencement notes
for residential properties
dropped during the
period of the first
lockdown and have not
increased to pre-COVID
levels.
The total number of residential property transactions
in 2020 was 47,750, 18.78% less than the 58,791
recorded in 2019. The total value of residential
transactions in 2020 was €14,983,429,488, 17% less
than the €18,052,264,585 recorded in 2019.
Reduction in residential building and planning
activity, combined with no reduction in property
prices and a short and temporary reduction in sales
transactions would tend to indicate a future
shortage of residential properties with continuing
demand and no reduction in prices.
Sources:
Property Price Register - https://propertypriceregister.ie/Website/NPSRA/pprweb.nsf/page/ppr-home-en
Mortgage Approvals - https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report-december-2020/
Commencement Notices -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/HSM13/XLSX/2007/en
Planning Permissions - https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/BHQ05/XLSX/2007/en
Residential Property Price Index -
https://ws.cso.ie/public/api.restful/PxStat.Data.Cube_API.ReadDataset/HPM09/XLSX/2007/en
Ireland – 2019 And 2020 Compared In Data
Customs Excise
Duty
Capital
Gains Tax
Capital
Acquisitions
Tax
Stamp
Duties
Income
Tax
Corporation
Tax
Valued
Added Tax
Motor
Vehicle
Duties
Total
2019 348.51 5,940.37 1,075.06 532.98 1,514.91 22,934.49 10,887.57 15,117.60 962.10 59,315.61
2020 275.65 5,447.81 951.32 493.82 2,089.94 22,710.83 11,832.77 12,423.56 939.23 57,166.94
Change -72.86 -492.56 -123.74 -39.17 575.03 -223.66 945.20 -2,694.05 -22.87 -2,148.68
Change % -20.91% -8.29% -11.51% -7.35% 37.96% -0.98% 8.68% -17.82% -2.38% -3.62%
Tax receipts in 2020 are down by
over two billion when compared
with 2019.
Sample Traffic Data
Taken From M50
Between Junction 7 and
Junction 9
The pattern of weekday traffic volumes
if very different in 2020 than in 2019. In
2019, the weekday traffic volumes show
a consistent pattern with well-defined
morning and afternoon peaks and
hourly volumes in 8,000 to 12,000
range.
In 2020, the pattern in very different.
There are many weeks when the traffic
volumes are less than 5,00 per hour..
The pattern of
weekday traffic
during the first
lockdown interval
shows a significant
reduction in traffic
volumes over the
similar interval in
2019.
The reduction in traffic volumes during the first
lockdown interval is between 35% and 70%.
This uses data from RIP.ie. The RIP.ie web site contains death
notices from which more recent and more detailed mortality
data can be inferred. But the data has many issues:
• There are duplicate notices for the same death.
• There are notices for deaths that occur in Northern
Ireland.
• There are for deaths of Irish people that occurred outside
Ireland other than Northern Ireland.
• Death notices are not published for foreign nationals who
have died in Ireland, including both visitors and temporary
workers but whose deaths will appear in the CSO data.
• Some deaths will not have a death notice.
• Some death notices will not have a date of death.
RIP.ie data is used because of the poor quality of published
mortality information.
Source:
NTR Traffic Data:
https://www.nratrafficdata.ie/
The differences in the number of deaths
in the two years will be due to many
factors such as:
• Reduced expected deaths due to
lockdown-related factors and
associated reduction of economic
activities – road traffic and other
travel-related, crime, workplace
accidents, reduced deaths of foreign
visitors to Ireland
• Deaths caused by COVID-19 that
would not have happened.
• Deaths attributed to COVID-19 but
which would have happened
anyway within the measurement
interval.
• Excess deaths due to but not
attributed to COVID-19.
• Excess deaths due to factors such as
failure to seek medical attention for
serious illness, failure of emergency
services to respond to call
sufficiently quickly because of
perceived or actual excess workload,
possible increased rate of suicide
and Excess deaths due to Irish
people who would have died on
holidays abroad but who now have
died while remaining in Ireland.
There is a definite increase in deaths between
2019 and 2019 from 23 March 2019
16 May 2019. Thereafter the pattern is much
less clear.
2020 is a Leap Year and so there is an extra
day when deaths will occur. This will account
for roughly an additional 85 deaths.
Deaths
2019 31,173
2020 32,093
Difference 920
There is some variation in the proportion
of deaths that are recorded on different
days of the week. There is no real pattern
or significance to the variations. In
general, slightly fewer deaths occur on
Saturdays, Sundays and Wednesdays.
Source:
Death Notices: https://www.rip.ie/
There is a double-hit to aviation:
flights down by over 74% and
average flight occupancy down by
over 67% since the start of
restrictions, leading to an over
90% reduction in passengers.
2019 2020 Difference
Mortage Approvals 25,067 23,155 -7.63%
Approval Amount
(Millions)
5,789 5,617 -2.97%
Average Approval
Amount
€230,576 €241,821 4.88%
X
Size of shorter
waiting
queues drop
Size of longer waiting
queues increase
This compares some data areas for Ireland for the years 2019 and 2020 illustrating the changes between the two years.
It shows some of the impacts on both COVID-19 and of actions taken in response, such as the various lockdowns and
other restrictions.
The first lockdown clearly had major changes. The third lockdown which began at the end of the period analysed will
have as great an impact as the first lockdown.
Patterns of spending
have changed with
significant drops in
areas like transport
and large increases in
areas such as utilities,
indicating a hidden
increased cost of
people working from
home.
Large Numbers Of Existing Patients Are Simply Moving Further
Down The Queue