Labour keep lead, but David Cameron outscores Ed Miliband on many leadership qualities, says our latest Political Monitor poll

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
September 2012
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
3
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
All giving a voting All certain to vote: 55%
intention: 81%
14% 16%
Labour
32% 30%
Conservative
12%
13%
Lib Dem
Other
42% 41%
Conservative lead = -10 Conservative lead = -11
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012, all certain to vote = 567 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. Voting Intentions January ‘03 – September ‘12
(all certain to vote)
4
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005
Howard elected General Brown as PM 2010
(Nov 03) Election (Jun 07) General
Cameron elected Election
50
(Dec 05)
41%
40
30 30%
20
13%
10
0
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-03
Sep-03
Jul-04
Sep-04
Jul-05
Sep-05
Jul-06
Sep-06
Jul-07
Sep-07
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Jul-11
Sep-11
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Nov-03
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?
Net change
Net from August
satisfaction 2012
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied
David Cameron 58 34 -24 -8
Nick Clegg 66 23 -43 -16
Ed Miliband 47 38 -9 -7
The Government 64 28 -36 -8
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – September ‘12 7
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
70 General
Clegg elected Election
(Jan 08)
60
50
Cameron
40
38%
% satisfied
30 34%
Miliband
20 Brown Clegg 23%
10
Campbell
0
Jul-12
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Nov-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Nov-11
Sep-12
Mar-12
Mar-09
Mar-11
May-10
May-12
May-08
May-09
May-11
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
CAMERON
Net satisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. David Cameron (satisfaction) 9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
September 2012 January 2006 – September 2012
Don’t know Satisfied Dissatisfied
60
7%
50
34% 40
30 Satisfied
20
10
58%
0
Dissatisfied
Net = -24 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. David Cameron 10
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
September 2012 January 2006 – September 2012
Don’t know
Satisfied 100
4% 90
Dissatisfied 80
70
27% 60
Satisfied
50
40
Dissatisfied
30
20
69% 10
0
Net = +42 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders 11
(1994 – 2012)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
CAMERON (2005-2010)
Net satisfaction
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
MILIBAND (2010-2012)
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2012 October 2010 – September 2012
Don’t know Satisfied
60 Dissatisfied
14%
50
38% 40
30
Satisfied
20
47% 10
Dissatisfied
Net = -9
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Ed Miliband 13
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2012 October 2010 – September 2012
Don’t know Satisfied
70
11% 60
Satisfied
50
40
30
34% 55% 20 Dissatisfied
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = +21
Base: 342 Labour supporters 18+, 15th - 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
September 2012 January 2008 – September 2012
Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied
11% 60
23% 50
40
30
20 Satisfied
10
0
66%
Dissatisfied
Net = -43 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Nick Clegg 15
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
September 2012 January 2008 – September 2012
Don’t know Satisfied
100
Dissatisfied 6% 90
80
Satisfied
70
60
43% 50
40
30
51% 20
Dissatisfied
10
0
Net = -8 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 100 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16. Economic Optimism

17. Economic Optimism Index 17
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
September 2012
80
Don’t know
70
3% Improve Get worse
60 Stay the same
26% 50
35% 40
30
20
10 Improve
Get worse 36% 0
Sep-11
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-11
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-12
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-12
May-11
Stay the same
EOI = -9
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18. Index (get better minus get worse)
20
40
0
-80
-60
-40
-20
Jan-97
May-97
Sep-97
+28
Jan-98
May-98
Sep-98
Jan-99
May-99
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Sep-99
over the next 12 months?
Jan-00
-46
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
-56
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Jan-09
May-09
-64
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
+23
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
Jan-12
May-12
-48
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Sep-12
-9
18

19. Leader image

20. Leader image 20
In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following?
Eloquent 59% Cameron
15% Miliband
Prime Ministerial 57%
17%
Tough enough for the job of PM 54%
18%
Smart enough for the job of PM 54%
22%
Represents Britain 46%
26%
Likeable 38%
29%
Has the right values 37%
35%
Is a good person 35%
30%
A man of faith 34%
16%
Would be fun to meet in person 34%
21%
Will protect British jobs 31%
37%
Understands people like me 26%
36%
Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor