When will IP CCTV become the dominant technology? The slideshow argues that this will happen faster than the current predictions state. The main reason for this is that diffusion does not follow a linear pattern, but rather an epidemic one.
How technology becomes our nature in seven stepsddertili
This document outlines how technology becomes integrated into human nature through seven levels: 1) Envisioned - an idea is conceived; 2) Operational - proof of concept exists but not widely applied; 3) Applied - introduced to society but not yet accepted; 4) Accepted - widely used and perceived as normal; 5) Vital - so integrated we feel lost without it; 6) Invisible - seen as natural not technological; 7) Naturalized - fully integrated into unconscious nature. Examples discussed include writing, cooking, mobile phones. The document argues technology progresses through these levels with some getting stuck and others advancing to become invisible partners and fully naturalized.
The document summarizes user research findings for an urban playground design brief. Key findings from observations and interviews include:
- People passing by the space are usually in a hurry and don't stop unless they have time to pause
- Nighttime attracts more attention to the space due to lighting
- Users want the purpose and benefit of any interactive elements to be clear immediately
- Competition and comparison to others can motivate engagement, but only between closely related people
What is 'deep tech' and what is unique about it from an investment perspective? SOSV shares the lessons learned from investing in over 800 startups, many in robotics, IoT, medtech, synthetic biology and more.
We focus on Invisible Interfaces and their influence on digital experiences. With the advent of 5G creating the foundation for the increased adoption of ‘invisibility’ in our interaction with technology – we’ll discuss what this could mean for the UX and CX industry.
“Tell us your business rules and we will execute them”. This deceptively simple promise of Business Rules Management Systems underestimates the pain felt by practitioners going through their first project. Turning tacit knowledge into executable business rules is a difficult task.
The famous quote from Michael Polanyi, “we know more than we can tell”, summarizes beautifully the challenges faced by business users, business analysts and rules architects. Although partially documented in regulations and business manuals, knowledge is mostly buried deep in the head of knowledge workers and simply asking for it is easier said than done. Is the resulting body of rules comprehensive enough? Is it specific enough? Is it correct and accurate?
In the 1980-90’s, the Artificial Intelligence community invested heavily on various techniques for expert interviews to tackle this very problem. With the winter of AI, expert systems became less popular and so did those efforts. Experts were too few and their time too valuable to participate in those time-consuming interviews.
More recently, Agile Programming transformed development cycles by, among other things, bringing test cases at the forefront of the effort. Communication between product managers and developers has improved by discussing requirements in the context of use cases well established up-front. This talk presents a new approach to knowledge elicitation that combines Agile and AI concepts for the modern usage in Decision Management systems.
In particular, attendees will learn how to accelerate harvesting time and increase the quality of the extracted business rules at the same time. 100% pragmatic advice.
Although manipulations of visual and auditory media are as old as the media themselves, the recent entrance of deepfakes has marked a turning point in the creation of fake content. Powered by latest technological advances in AI and machine learning, they offer automated procedures to create fake content that is harder and harder to detect to human observers. The possibilities to deceive are endless, including manipulated pictures, videos and audio, that will have large societal impact. Because of this, organizations need to understand the inner workings of the underlying techniques, as well as their strengths and limitations. This article provides a working definition of deepfakes together with an overview of the underlying technology. We classify different deepfake types: photo (face- and body-swapping), audio (voice-swapping, text to speech), video (face-swapping, face-morphing, full body puppetry) and audio & video (lip-synching), and identify risks and opportunities to help organizations think about the future of deepfakes. Finally, we propose the R.E.A.L. framework to manage deepfake risks: Record original content to assure deniability, Expose deepfakes early, Advocate for legal protection and Leverage trust to counter credulity. Following these principles, we hope that our society can be more prepared to counter the deepfake tricks as we appreciate its treats.
How technology becomes our nature in seven stepsddertili
This document outlines how technology becomes integrated into human nature through seven levels: 1) Envisioned - an idea is conceived; 2) Operational - proof of concept exists but not widely applied; 3) Applied - introduced to society but not yet accepted; 4) Accepted - widely used and perceived as normal; 5) Vital - so integrated we feel lost without it; 6) Invisible - seen as natural not technological; 7) Naturalized - fully integrated into unconscious nature. Examples discussed include writing, cooking, mobile phones. The document argues technology progresses through these levels with some getting stuck and others advancing to become invisible partners and fully naturalized.
The document summarizes user research findings for an urban playground design brief. Key findings from observations and interviews include:
- People passing by the space are usually in a hurry and don't stop unless they have time to pause
- Nighttime attracts more attention to the space due to lighting
- Users want the purpose and benefit of any interactive elements to be clear immediately
- Competition and comparison to others can motivate engagement, but only between closely related people
What is 'deep tech' and what is unique about it from an investment perspective? SOSV shares the lessons learned from investing in over 800 startups, many in robotics, IoT, medtech, synthetic biology and more.
We focus on Invisible Interfaces and their influence on digital experiences. With the advent of 5G creating the foundation for the increased adoption of ‘invisibility’ in our interaction with technology – we’ll discuss what this could mean for the UX and CX industry.
“Tell us your business rules and we will execute them”. This deceptively simple promise of Business Rules Management Systems underestimates the pain felt by practitioners going through their first project. Turning tacit knowledge into executable business rules is a difficult task.
The famous quote from Michael Polanyi, “we know more than we can tell”, summarizes beautifully the challenges faced by business users, business analysts and rules architects. Although partially documented in regulations and business manuals, knowledge is mostly buried deep in the head of knowledge workers and simply asking for it is easier said than done. Is the resulting body of rules comprehensive enough? Is it specific enough? Is it correct and accurate?
In the 1980-90’s, the Artificial Intelligence community invested heavily on various techniques for expert interviews to tackle this very problem. With the winter of AI, expert systems became less popular and so did those efforts. Experts were too few and their time too valuable to participate in those time-consuming interviews.
More recently, Agile Programming transformed development cycles by, among other things, bringing test cases at the forefront of the effort. Communication between product managers and developers has improved by discussing requirements in the context of use cases well established up-front. This talk presents a new approach to knowledge elicitation that combines Agile and AI concepts for the modern usage in Decision Management systems.
In particular, attendees will learn how to accelerate harvesting time and increase the quality of the extracted business rules at the same time. 100% pragmatic advice.
Although manipulations of visual and auditory media are as old as the media themselves, the recent entrance of deepfakes has marked a turning point in the creation of fake content. Powered by latest technological advances in AI and machine learning, they offer automated procedures to create fake content that is harder and harder to detect to human observers. The possibilities to deceive are endless, including manipulated pictures, videos and audio, that will have large societal impact. Because of this, organizations need to understand the inner workings of the underlying techniques, as well as their strengths and limitations. This article provides a working definition of deepfakes together with an overview of the underlying technology. We classify different deepfake types: photo (face- and body-swapping), audio (voice-swapping, text to speech), video (face-swapping, face-morphing, full body puppetry) and audio & video (lip-synching), and identify risks and opportunities to help organizations think about the future of deepfakes. Finally, we propose the R.E.A.L. framework to manage deepfake risks: Record original content to assure deniability, Expose deepfakes early, Advocate for legal protection and Leverage trust to counter credulity. Following these principles, we hope that our society can be more prepared to counter the deepfake tricks as we appreciate its treats.
Communication technology landscape in 2027 a.d.Dakota Fleck
This document discusses predictions for communication technologies in 2027 based on four theories:
1) Uses and Gratification Theory - Technology will become even more integrated into communication and research, potentially replacing human interaction.
2) Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation Theory - New technologies will spread more quickly through society as early adopters influence others.
3) Moore's Innovation Adoption Rate - More people will adopt innovations early as comfort with existing technologies declines. The gap between innovators and mainstream users will shrink.
4) Bandura's Social Learning Theory - People will learn about and adopt new technologies through observing and imitating others in their social networks.
The End of Information Technology: Introducing Hypersense & Human TechnologyMartin Geddes
If we were to climb into a time machine and set the dial for ten years into the future, what might personal communications look like? Might you inhabit a soothing virtual reality where your conference call takes place in a simulated lakeside villa? Might you consult with a virtual doctor? Employ a “Guardian Avatar” to act autonomously on your behalf eliminating online drudgery and security concerns? Although no particular future is certain, the seeds of what is to come can always be found within the present reality, albeit often only in retrospect.
The future of computing is a symbiosis of machines and people. To achieve this we need an "operating system" upgrade for digital technology. We all need a Guardian Avatar to help us to navigate the "metaverse", and to care for us and protect us.
The document discusses communication technologies that may exist in the year 2027. Faster internet speeds from fiber optic networks will allow for enhanced communication and information sharing. Augmented reality technologies like smart glasses may provide real-time information about one's surroundings. Virtual presence systems could allow for hologram-like video calls. Various theories explain how new technologies are adopted over time, from critical mass theory to Moore's innovation adoption rate curve. Overall, the future of communication in 10 years will likely include greater connectivity and new ways to access information remotely through augmented and virtual reality.
This document discusses the future of holographic projection technologies and their potential "killer applications." It begins with a brief history of holography, covering inventors like Dennis Gabor and major breakthroughs. Today, holograms are used in entertainment, education, communication, and other fields. The document predicts holograms will be used for virtual training, entertainment, and more. It questions whether uses like holographic pornography could negatively impact the technology's development.
Deepfakes - How they work and what it means for the futureJarrod Overson
Deepfakes originally started as cheap costing but believable video effects and have expanded into AI-generated content of every format. This session dove into the state of deepfakes and how the technology highlights an exciting but dangerous future.
My trend presentation based on Trendwolves' European Youth Trend Report.
In this presentation I go into 8 bigger consumer trends for the next 5 to 10 years.
Please, take a minute. Think about it.
I hope you can hear and watch me do this trend talk in the near future.
Iste 3 out of 5 tech trends that bend 2-2014 finalJason Ohler
5 Technological Trends that Bend: Big Data, Augmented Reality, Semantic Web and Web of Things, xTreme BYOD, and Transmedia Storytelling. Seen through the lens of digital citizenship, and how they will impact the world of education, living, working, playing. Delivered February 13, 2014 for ISTE's Virtual Conference. This presentation was made at ISTE 2013, then at the ISTE Virtual Conference, February, 2014, and will be delivered at ISTE 2014, June 29th, 4:14PM. Review at: http://ow.ly/tIsD2
Accessibility Myths for the Mobile Generation (HCID Open 2015)Jonathan Hassell
This document challenges common myths about web and mobile accessibility. It discusses that:
1) Mobile accessibility is important because disabled users increasingly access the web via mobile devices which may be their only option.
2) Accessibility benefits all users, not just disabled users, as impairments can be temporary for anyone.
3) Following WCAG guidelines helps but should not replace user research as technologies change.
4) Text is more accessible than images for many disabled users such as those with visual impairments or dyslexia.
This document appears to be a thesis report for a virtual reality interface design project. The summary is:
The document outlines research and design work done to make virtual reality more accessible. It discusses preconceptions about third party content, headset design assumptions, and the uncertain direction of VR. Research involved observing users experience motion sickness in VR games. The report also reviews the state of the VR field and technologies being developed to lower costs. The goal is to help more users, including those with visual impairments, have positive VR experiences.
Becoming a Change Agent: Ushering in a New Approach to LearningKarl Kapp
This document discusses how to effectively introduce and promote the adoption of new technologies and innovations. It outlines Rogers' diffusion of innovations theory, including the attributes that make an innovation attractive like relative advantage and compatibility. It also discusses the different types of adopters according to the innovation adoption curve and how to target each group. The technology hype cycle is also explained to show how expectations for a new technology typically follow a pattern from peak to productivity. Overall, the key is to understand what drives adoption, recognize different attitudes towards change, and serve as a role model for the new innovation.
This document discusses social engineering and the concept of "jugaad" in India. It provides background on social engineering principles like reciprocity, commitment, social proof, liking, and authority. It analyzes a case study of getting free food from a college canteen using social engineering. It also discusses macroexpressions, microexpressions, and techniques for controlling expressions during social engineering tests. Regarding jugaad, it defines the concept, discusses why India is well-suited for it, provides examples, and analyzes whether jugaad can change lives.
The document discusses technology adoption by older adults, specifically those aged 55 and over. It begins by defining technology and exploring its evolving relationship with humans. While technology adoption was once thought to decrease with age, research shows older adults adopt technologies at different rates based on income, education and lifestyle, not just age. The aging population represents a large potential market for technologies. New designs should cater to diverse capabilities as people age, following principles of universal design to ensure usability for all.
The wall falls down: Integrating our online and offline worlds [Confab 2015]Noz Urbina
[Confab version of my keynote talk]
There are no longer discrete online and offline worlds. Holding onto this idea is hurting our communications.
In this session, we will take a look at communications that seamlessly blend physical and digital experiences. When you take omnichannel, wearable devices, and the internet of things—and put them together in one integrated ecosystem for users—the dividing line disappears.
What do we gain when we fully integrate online and offline? How should communications change to cope with a life of constantly accelerating change? We’ll look at examples and techniques that can help prepare for this new paradigm.
* With a few tweaks and additions, my slides from Computers and Writing 2009. (I'd like to add audio eventually...)
* Related links are posted here:
http://abjohnson.net/presentations/badppt.html
* There are two YouTube videos embedded in the presentation:
Don McMillan's PowerPoint stand up comedy bit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cagxPlVqrtM
A short video with Hitchcock's explanation of the Kuleshov effect:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCAE0t6KwJY
Exponentials and Networks - The Existential Challenge Of Radical Innovation For The Enterprise
Exponential technologies tend to take even the experts by surprise. The centralized and hierarchical organizations are under threat by nimbler and more resilient decentralized networks.
How can modern enterprises survive the combined challenges of technological and organizational innovation, internalizing the processes that make companies great and thrive?
This document outlines Luciano Floridi's ideas about big data and the challenges it presents. It discusses three main ideas: hyperhistory and how data has been collected since ancient Sumer; the infosphere and how technology has expanded our data environment; and how data collection represents a fourth revolution in human understanding. It then addresses the rise of big data in terms of power, cost, and what it can do. Challenges of big data are also outlined, as well as the problem that small patterns in data may be individually insignificant but meaningful when aggregated or absent. The conclusion stresses the importance of asking and answering questions about data.
Social media and mobile devices have combined to help create the always-with-us, always-on, always-connected campus. Not just student-to-student but, importantly, institution/faculty/staff-to-student as well as staff-to-staff. We need to look beyond the silo-ed, one-way web sites of the past towards more personal, two-way applications that take advantage of this sea change on campus. The ways in which our users will want to interact with us, the types of tasks they’ll want to complete, and the types of devices we’ll want to deliver to will just continue to proliferate.
Now is the time to reevaluate.
Using lessons learned at a large land-grant institution we’ll look at what the future friendly campus might look like, ways to plant the seed of that change and tips on how to accomplish it.
This presentation was given at the 2012 .eduGuru Summit on April 11, 2012.
Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insi...Merlien Institute
Presented by Dan Foreman, Director, Lumi Mobile
& Juliana Smith Holterhaus, VP Business Operations, Lumi Mobile
at Market Research in the Mobile World North America
17 - 18 July 2013, Minneapolis, USA
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://www.mrmw.net
The document discusses several predictions for future technologies and innovations. It predicts that virtual reality gaming will become more common through devices like the Oculus Rift and Project Morpheus. It also suggests that cloud-based storage will replace physical storage methods and be used for more applications like video game saves. Additionally, it proposes that advances in police technology like thermal imaging will create a safer society through improved communication and criminal detection.
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and writes about disruptive innovation and technological change. The document discusses Nokia's decline from controlling 40% of the global cellphone market in 2007 to collapsing and now fighting to reinvent itself. Several figures are presented to illustrate Nokia's dramatic decline over this period. Contact information is provided to find out more about Nokia and disruptive innovation from Sandström's website.
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaChris Sandström
Apple’s IPhone was first revealed in January 2007. Out of curiosity I pondered through Nokia’s quarterly presentation slides in the years 2007-2010 in order to get a better idea about how they related to the ongoing shift from feature phones to smartphones. While such a brief and shallow review will not give the full picture of Nokia’s response, it might still reveal something.
More Related Content
Similar to IP Video Surveillance - Predictions of Future Growth
Communication technology landscape in 2027 a.d.Dakota Fleck
This document discusses predictions for communication technologies in 2027 based on four theories:
1) Uses and Gratification Theory - Technology will become even more integrated into communication and research, potentially replacing human interaction.
2) Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation Theory - New technologies will spread more quickly through society as early adopters influence others.
3) Moore's Innovation Adoption Rate - More people will adopt innovations early as comfort with existing technologies declines. The gap between innovators and mainstream users will shrink.
4) Bandura's Social Learning Theory - People will learn about and adopt new technologies through observing and imitating others in their social networks.
The End of Information Technology: Introducing Hypersense & Human TechnologyMartin Geddes
If we were to climb into a time machine and set the dial for ten years into the future, what might personal communications look like? Might you inhabit a soothing virtual reality where your conference call takes place in a simulated lakeside villa? Might you consult with a virtual doctor? Employ a “Guardian Avatar” to act autonomously on your behalf eliminating online drudgery and security concerns? Although no particular future is certain, the seeds of what is to come can always be found within the present reality, albeit often only in retrospect.
The future of computing is a symbiosis of machines and people. To achieve this we need an "operating system" upgrade for digital technology. We all need a Guardian Avatar to help us to navigate the "metaverse", and to care for us and protect us.
The document discusses communication technologies that may exist in the year 2027. Faster internet speeds from fiber optic networks will allow for enhanced communication and information sharing. Augmented reality technologies like smart glasses may provide real-time information about one's surroundings. Virtual presence systems could allow for hologram-like video calls. Various theories explain how new technologies are adopted over time, from critical mass theory to Moore's innovation adoption rate curve. Overall, the future of communication in 10 years will likely include greater connectivity and new ways to access information remotely through augmented and virtual reality.
This document discusses the future of holographic projection technologies and their potential "killer applications." It begins with a brief history of holography, covering inventors like Dennis Gabor and major breakthroughs. Today, holograms are used in entertainment, education, communication, and other fields. The document predicts holograms will be used for virtual training, entertainment, and more. It questions whether uses like holographic pornography could negatively impact the technology's development.
Deepfakes - How they work and what it means for the futureJarrod Overson
Deepfakes originally started as cheap costing but believable video effects and have expanded into AI-generated content of every format. This session dove into the state of deepfakes and how the technology highlights an exciting but dangerous future.
My trend presentation based on Trendwolves' European Youth Trend Report.
In this presentation I go into 8 bigger consumer trends for the next 5 to 10 years.
Please, take a minute. Think about it.
I hope you can hear and watch me do this trend talk in the near future.
Iste 3 out of 5 tech trends that bend 2-2014 finalJason Ohler
5 Technological Trends that Bend: Big Data, Augmented Reality, Semantic Web and Web of Things, xTreme BYOD, and Transmedia Storytelling. Seen through the lens of digital citizenship, and how they will impact the world of education, living, working, playing. Delivered February 13, 2014 for ISTE's Virtual Conference. This presentation was made at ISTE 2013, then at the ISTE Virtual Conference, February, 2014, and will be delivered at ISTE 2014, June 29th, 4:14PM. Review at: http://ow.ly/tIsD2
Accessibility Myths for the Mobile Generation (HCID Open 2015)Jonathan Hassell
This document challenges common myths about web and mobile accessibility. It discusses that:
1) Mobile accessibility is important because disabled users increasingly access the web via mobile devices which may be their only option.
2) Accessibility benefits all users, not just disabled users, as impairments can be temporary for anyone.
3) Following WCAG guidelines helps but should not replace user research as technologies change.
4) Text is more accessible than images for many disabled users such as those with visual impairments or dyslexia.
This document appears to be a thesis report for a virtual reality interface design project. The summary is:
The document outlines research and design work done to make virtual reality more accessible. It discusses preconceptions about third party content, headset design assumptions, and the uncertain direction of VR. Research involved observing users experience motion sickness in VR games. The report also reviews the state of the VR field and technologies being developed to lower costs. The goal is to help more users, including those with visual impairments, have positive VR experiences.
Becoming a Change Agent: Ushering in a New Approach to LearningKarl Kapp
This document discusses how to effectively introduce and promote the adoption of new technologies and innovations. It outlines Rogers' diffusion of innovations theory, including the attributes that make an innovation attractive like relative advantage and compatibility. It also discusses the different types of adopters according to the innovation adoption curve and how to target each group. The technology hype cycle is also explained to show how expectations for a new technology typically follow a pattern from peak to productivity. Overall, the key is to understand what drives adoption, recognize different attitudes towards change, and serve as a role model for the new innovation.
This document discusses social engineering and the concept of "jugaad" in India. It provides background on social engineering principles like reciprocity, commitment, social proof, liking, and authority. It analyzes a case study of getting free food from a college canteen using social engineering. It also discusses macroexpressions, microexpressions, and techniques for controlling expressions during social engineering tests. Regarding jugaad, it defines the concept, discusses why India is well-suited for it, provides examples, and analyzes whether jugaad can change lives.
The document discusses technology adoption by older adults, specifically those aged 55 and over. It begins by defining technology and exploring its evolving relationship with humans. While technology adoption was once thought to decrease with age, research shows older adults adopt technologies at different rates based on income, education and lifestyle, not just age. The aging population represents a large potential market for technologies. New designs should cater to diverse capabilities as people age, following principles of universal design to ensure usability for all.
The wall falls down: Integrating our online and offline worlds [Confab 2015]Noz Urbina
[Confab version of my keynote talk]
There are no longer discrete online and offline worlds. Holding onto this idea is hurting our communications.
In this session, we will take a look at communications that seamlessly blend physical and digital experiences. When you take omnichannel, wearable devices, and the internet of things—and put them together in one integrated ecosystem for users—the dividing line disappears.
What do we gain when we fully integrate online and offline? How should communications change to cope with a life of constantly accelerating change? We’ll look at examples and techniques that can help prepare for this new paradigm.
* With a few tweaks and additions, my slides from Computers and Writing 2009. (I'd like to add audio eventually...)
* Related links are posted here:
http://abjohnson.net/presentations/badppt.html
* There are two YouTube videos embedded in the presentation:
Don McMillan's PowerPoint stand up comedy bit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cagxPlVqrtM
A short video with Hitchcock's explanation of the Kuleshov effect:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCAE0t6KwJY
Exponentials and Networks - The Existential Challenge Of Radical Innovation For The Enterprise
Exponential technologies tend to take even the experts by surprise. The centralized and hierarchical organizations are under threat by nimbler and more resilient decentralized networks.
How can modern enterprises survive the combined challenges of technological and organizational innovation, internalizing the processes that make companies great and thrive?
This document outlines Luciano Floridi's ideas about big data and the challenges it presents. It discusses three main ideas: hyperhistory and how data has been collected since ancient Sumer; the infosphere and how technology has expanded our data environment; and how data collection represents a fourth revolution in human understanding. It then addresses the rise of big data in terms of power, cost, and what it can do. Challenges of big data are also outlined, as well as the problem that small patterns in data may be individually insignificant but meaningful when aggregated or absent. The conclusion stresses the importance of asking and answering questions about data.
Social media and mobile devices have combined to help create the always-with-us, always-on, always-connected campus. Not just student-to-student but, importantly, institution/faculty/staff-to-student as well as staff-to-staff. We need to look beyond the silo-ed, one-way web sites of the past towards more personal, two-way applications that take advantage of this sea change on campus. The ways in which our users will want to interact with us, the types of tasks they’ll want to complete, and the types of devices we’ll want to deliver to will just continue to proliferate.
Now is the time to reevaluate.
Using lessons learned at a large land-grant institution we’ll look at what the future friendly campus might look like, ways to plant the seed of that change and tips on how to accomplish it.
This presentation was given at the 2012 .eduGuru Summit on April 11, 2012.
Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insi...Merlien Institute
Presented by Dan Foreman, Director, Lumi Mobile
& Juliana Smith Holterhaus, VP Business Operations, Lumi Mobile
at Market Research in the Mobile World North America
17 - 18 July 2013, Minneapolis, USA
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://www.mrmw.net
The document discusses several predictions for future technologies and innovations. It predicts that virtual reality gaming will become more common through devices like the Oculus Rift and Project Morpheus. It also suggests that cloud-based storage will replace physical storage methods and be used for more applications like video game saves. Additionally, it proposes that advances in police technology like thermal imaging will create a safer society through improved communication and criminal detection.
Similar to IP Video Surveillance - Predictions of Future Growth (20)
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and writes about disruptive innovation and technological change. The document discusses Nokia's decline from controlling 40% of the global cellphone market in 2007 to collapsing and now fighting to reinvent itself. Several figures are presented to illustrate Nokia's dramatic decline over this period. Contact information is provided to find out more about Nokia and disruptive innovation from Sandström's website.
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaChris Sandström
Apple’s IPhone was first revealed in January 2007. Out of curiosity I pondered through Nokia’s quarterly presentation slides in the years 2007-2010 in order to get a better idea about how they related to the ongoing shift from feature phones to smartphones. While such a brief and shallow review will not give the full picture of Nokia’s response, it might still reveal something.
This document discusses some limitations of using the technology S-curve to understand technological change and disruption. Specifically, it notes that the S-curve does not take into account market factors or how customer needs and values can change over time. As an example, it shows how compact cameras were displaced by mobile phone cameras not due to reaching scientific limits, but because increased portability became more important to customers than further improvements in image quality. This phenomenon of "technology overshooting" occurs when a technology is replaced before peak performance due to shifting customer priorities.
This document introduces the concept of a "Sailing Ship effect", where an established technology facing disruption from a new technology undergoes accelerated improvements just before being displaced. The concept is illustrated using an S-curve to show how a new technology improves rapidly after an initial breakthrough, eventually surpassing the established technology. Examples are given of analog CCTV facing threats from digital IP video, and the automotive industry facing saturated markets. The Sailing Ship effect represents a last attempt by incumbent firms to improve the established technology in response to the disruption threat, even though the new technology ultimately wins out.
As electronic calculators became popular in the 1960s-1970s, the calculator industry experienced rapid growth. By 1972, most mechanical calculator manufacturers had collapsed. Many new firms, especially in Japan, entered the growing market but faced low barriers. The introduction of integrated circuits and later calculators-on-a-chip drastically reduced prices and improved performance while changing the industry structure. Most new entrants failed while a few like Sharp succeeded in the "Great Calculator War" of the early 1970s.
The Swiss watch industry dominated global exports in the 1970s but collapsed as digital watch technology emerged. The industry's decentralized structure made a coordinated response to digitization difficult. As production costs fell and distribution widened, cheap digital watches from Texas Instruments and others bankrupted many Swiss manufacturers. While some high-end Swiss brands survived on branding, the industry's competitive advantage was lost as specialized mechanical watchmaking skills became obsolete.
This thesis explores disruptive innovation through a study of value, networks, and business models. Previous research has shown that disruptive innovations often topple incumbents because the innovations are not initially demanded by established customers. However, more knowledge is needed on how disruptive innovations can prosper within an incumbent's existing market segment. The thesis presents case studies of Hasselblad and Facit to explore how disruptive innovations create new value through activities like removing labor. This suggests disruptive innovation theory needs a broader view of how different performance dimensions create value. Additionally, customers should be seen as a network of actors with varying competencies and incentives, as disruptive innovations may be incompatible with some actors even when existing customers demand the technology.
The document provides 5 examples of disruptive innovation:
1) Transistor radios disrupted analogue radios by being portable despite lower sound quality.
2) Pocket calculators disrupted desktop calculators through portability despite lower computing power.
3) LCD TVs disrupted CRT TVs initially in mobile applications where lighter weight and battery life were more important than picture quality.
4) Minimills disrupted integrated steel mills by producing cheaper, lower quality steel that captured more segments over time.
5) Mobile phones disrupted landlines by being portable despite lower sound quality and higher costs initially.
The document discusses whether the transition from analogue to digital IP cameras is a disruptive technology. It provides background on Clayton Christensen's theory of disruptive innovation, where new technologies initially underperform along dimensions valued by existing customers but have other attributes that create new markets. While IP video initially had lower image quality and price than analogue, it offered scalability and remote access. However, unlike disruptive technologies, IP video has emerged in major existing surveillance segments like retail and cities, not new or low-end markets. Therefore, the transition may not be a classic example of disruptive innovation.
Robert Noyce Quotes On Leadership And InnovationChris Sandström
Robert Noyce, co-inventor of the integrated circuit, viewed his invention as the result of a continuous, logical process rather than a singular breakthrough moment. He saw himself as trying to solve a production problem rather than specifically aiming to create an integrated circuit. Noyce also believed that researchers are best positioned to evaluate long-term research programs, not supervisors, and that managers should focus on enabling researchers' work rather than directing it.
The Swedish camera manufacturer Hasselblad was known for its compatibility with different lenses and accessories, allowing photographers flexibility. However, with the launch of the H3D model in 2006, Hasselblad announced it would no longer be compatible with other digital backs or allow its new lenses to be used with previous H models, going against its tradition of compatibility. This move was likely a result of Hasselblad's weakening after the shift to digital and its merger with Imacon, but may reduce photographer willingness to invest in Hasselblad instead of high-end DSLRs in the long run.
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden and writes about disruptive innovation and technological change. Roxette is one of Sweden's greatest pop bands, having sold over 45 million albums and 25 million singles. Their success can be largely attributed to understanding the importance of digital technology. Before founding Roxette, lead singer Per Gessle had been in the Swedish band Gyllene Tider, which was popular in Sweden from 1979-1981 but then declined. Gessle realized he could exploit the digital revolution by using synthesizers, MIDI, and drum machines to produce music professionally at low cost anywhere, including Sweden. This led to Roxette's album "Look Sharp" becoming a
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IP Video Surveillance - Predictions of Future Growth
1. History has shown that new
technologies and products tend to be
diffused at an initially low pace…
The Future Growth of
IP Video Surveillance
2. Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers
University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks
about disruptive innovation and technological change.
3. The growth of
digital, IP-based
video surveillance
has slowed down
significantly since
the recession set in.
4. Prior to the financial crisis, it showed an
annual growth of up to 40 percent.
5. While growth has gone down in the short
term, the long term prospects remain positive.
6. IMS Research estimates that about
50 percent of the surveillance
market will be digital in 2013.
7. IMS Research estimates that about
50 percent of the surveillance
market will be digital in 2013.
This figure indicates that the growth
will take off again once the
recession is over.
8. IMS Research estimates that about
50 percent of the surveillance
market will be digital in 2013.
This figure indicates that the growth
will take off again once the
recession is over.
In this presentation I will argue that
IP may be adopted at a higher pace
than IMS suggests.
9. Why?
Isn’t the technology still too expensive?
Isn’t the security industry too conservative?
10. I’ll approach this issue by drawing upon
research into innovation diffusion and the
work by Everett M. Rogers (1962).
12. Rogers studied a wide range of
different innovations.
He tried to explain how and why
innovations are adopted.
13. Rogers studied a wide range of
different innovations.
He tried to explain how and why
innovations are adopted.
The models he came up with are
generic and have turned out to be
applicable in surprisingly many and
diverse settings.
19. The S-curve idea has been tested in
many different settings.
It has rarely been contested.
20. The S-curve idea has been tested in
many different settings.
It has rarely been contested.
Among diffusion researchers, it is
more or less taken for granted today.
22. The main assumption behind this
model is that individual properties
are normally distributed across a
population.
23. The main assumption behind this
model is that individual properties
are normally distributed across a
population.
And therefore, the willingness to
adopt something new is also
normally distributed.
24. The rate of adoption is considered to
be affected by the amount of social
pressure to do so:
25. The rate of adoption is considered to
be affected by the amount of social
pressure to do so:
”Be not the first by whom the new is
tried, Nor the last to lay the old aside.”
// Alexander Pope, An Essay on criticism
27. Hence, the initial
diffusion is quite slow.
But if adoption is a social process
where information and knowledge is
spread by people, it should have an
epidemic pattern.
29. You are the first person to
adopt a new idea.
You talk to two friends and they also
choose to adopt it.
30. You are the first person to
adopt a new idea.
You talk to two friends and they also
choose to adopt it.
Those two persons talk to two
persons each and suddenly, four
more persons have changed!
31. The S-curve now reaches its steep phase
due to this binomial diffusion.
32. After a while, it becomes
increasingly difficult to find ’two
more’ persons who
haven’t changed yet.
33. After a while, it becomes
increasingly difficult to find ’two
more’ persons who
haven’t changed yet.
The rate of adoption therefore slows
down again as the market
becomes saturated…
36. The Technology Adoptors
Number of individuals
2.5%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
37. Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
38. Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
39. Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
40. Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
41. Number of individuals
Late Majority
Early Majority
Early Adopters Laggards
Innovators
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
44. … Which means that we are about
here on the Bell curve…
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
45. … And on our way to this…
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
46. … And this.
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
47. Diffusion theory would tell us that IP video
surveillance is just about to enter the steep phase.
49. Rogers stated:
“The heart of the innovation diffusion can
be found somewhere between 10 and 20
percent … After that point, it is often
impossible to stop the further diffusion of
a new idea, even if one wished to do so.”
52. I guess one objection to this would be:
“That’s just academic mambo jambo!”
53. So let’s see if this mambo has what
academics call ’face validity’
(whether the theory makes sense if you take a
glance at reality from your ivory tower).
62. Once the recession is over, more people than ever
before know about and want to buy an IP system…
63. … And they will create an even larger pressure to
switch over to IP surveillance.
64. The early majority will therefore buy IP in the near
future, and be followed by the late majority.
Number of individuals
Late Majority
Early Majority
Early Adopters Laggards
Innovators
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
67. In a speech in
2000 he said:
"Kodak is convinced
that there has never
been a better time to
be in the picture
business…. Digital
can change the way
people take and use
pictures. Suddenly
there are no
boundaries to how
often you can take
pictures because cost
and availability are no
longer issues."
68. Carp also said:
”… It will take more than
one company to change a
century of consumer habits
and perception. With the
participation of the entire
industry, I am confident
that we can lead the way
toward a more picture-rich
era, and that, together, we
can break through the
technical and marketing
challenges facing our
industry.”
69. In fact, Kodak used the S-curve logic to predict the
future of digital imaging. The resulting forecast from
1994 suggested that 50 percent of the market would
be digital in 2004. The prediction was very accurate,
it actually happened in 2003 (Read more here).
70. Well, we know what happened to the film
business in the coming years…
71. Well, we know what happened to the film
business in the coming years…
In retrospective, the quote seems a bit
puzzling, given how fast digital cameras
became so popular.
72. But back then, the technology had
only reached the early adopters…
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
73. … And it must have been hard to imagine…
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
74. … That the avalanche would come
into motion so rapidly.
Number of individuals
2.5% 13.5% 34% 34%
Visionary ability Sceptic ability
Everett Rogers Innovation/Adoption curve
75. Based upon these arguments, I would therefore say
that current predictions suffer from a too linear view
of market growth.
76. Adoption is not linear, it is epidemic and
the full implications of this effect have
not been witnessed yet.
77. Who knows, maybe 50 percent of the market is
digital by 2011 and not by 2013.
79. This way of reasoning has disregarded
the supply side completely.
80. This way of reasoning has disregarded
the supply side completely.
And it hasn’t really addressed one of the
key issues in the interaction between
supply and demand, namely the fact that IP
surveillance is in many ways incompatible
with the established way of buying,
installing and using analogue CCTV
(more about this here).
83. A slow advance in the beginning, followed by
rapid and uniformly accellerated progress,
followed again by progress that continues to
slacken until it finally stops: These are the
three ages of … invention … If taken as a
guide by the statistician and by the
socoilogists, they would save many illusions.
// Gabriel Tarde, The Laws of Imitation, p. 127