1.
Technology S-curves
1

2.
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers
University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks
about disruptive innovation and technological change.

3.
This presentation will introduce
the concept of
Technology S-curves and explain
how it can be used.
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4.
4

5.
Performance
5

6.
Performance
Time
6

7.
Performance
A technology’s
performance evolves
slowly in the beginning.
Time
7

8.
Performance
A technology’s At some point, a
performance evolves breakthrough happens and it
slowly in the beginning. now improves rapidly.
Time
8

9.
Performance
Limits of what is scientifically possible
are reached and performance doesn’t
increase much more.
A technology’s At some point, a
performance evolves breakthrough happens and it
slowly in the beginning. now improves rapidly.
Time
9

10.
One example:
Thickness of
mechanical watches
10

11.
Inches thick
(inverted)
1600 1700 1800 1900 11

12.
Inches thick
(inverted)
The first
mechanical
watches were as
thick as a lemon.
1600 1700 1800 1900 12

13.
Inches thick Since the early 1900s, mechanical
(inverted) watches have not become much thinner.
The first
mechanical
watches were as
thick as a lemon.
1600 1700 1800 1900 13

14.
As a technology reaches its
mature stage, it becomes
increasingly vulnerable to
substitute technologies.
14

15.
Foster (1986):
”Toward dawn on Friday, December 13, 1907,
the sailing ship Thomas W. Lawson sank off
the Scilly Isles in the English Channel. All
but the captain and one crew member
were lost. This would have been just
another Friday the thirteenth shipwreck,
but the Thomas Lawson was special.
Foster, R.N., Innovation: The Attacker’s
Advantage. New York: McKinsey,1986. 15

16.
Foster (1986):
”Toward dawn on Friday, December 13, 1907,
the sailing ship Thomas W. Lawson sank off
the Scilly Isles in the English Channel. All
but the captain and one crew member
were lost. This would have been just
another Friday the thirteenth shipwreck,
but the Thomas Lawson was special.
It was a beautiful, huge ship with seven masts.
It had been designed to compete against
the new steam-powered vessels that had
increasingly taken cargo business away
from sailing ships. Constructed by the Fall
River Ship and Engine Building Company,
the Thomas Lawson could travel at 22
knots if the winds were brisk…
Foster, R.N., Innovation: The Attacker’s
Advantage. New York: McKinsey,1986. 16

17.
… But to gain swiftness her designer had to sacrifice maneuverability. She was
unwieldy and difficult to handle. In fact, she was so unstable sha capsized while at
anchor during a severe gale. According to one account, she was found one morning
looking ”not unlike the back of a whale… the the vast hull on its side washed by the
seas.” No attempt was ever made to design a faster cargo-carrying sailing ship. The
builders and their employees sought other things to do. The age of commercial sail
17
ended with the Thomas Lawson, and steamships began to rule the seas.”

18.
Speed (knots)
20
10
4-5
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900
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19.
Speed (knots) By the early 20th century, sailing ships had reached
technological maturity. The Thomas W. Lawson was an
attempt to improve the technology beyond what was
20 physically possible.
10
4-5
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900
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20.
A pattern of displacement may
look like this:
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21.
Performance
Time
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22.
Performance
Time
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23.
Performance
The initially lower performance makes it
seemingly irrational for firms dominating the
previous technology to invest at an early point.
Time
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24.
Performance
As performance then improves
rapidly there is a considerable risk
that these firms are left behind.
The initially lower performance makes it
seemingly irrational for firms dominating the
previous technology to invest at an early point.
Time
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25.
One example:
Mechanical and Electronic
Calculators
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26.
Performance / Price
By the 1950s, mechanical
calculators had reached
technological maturity
Time
1900 1950 1970 26

27.
Performance / Price
By the 1950s, mechanical
calculators had reached
technological maturity
Electronic calculators were
initially more expensive and
offered lower performance Time
1900 1950 1970 27

28.
Performance / Price
By the 1950s, mechanical
calculators had reached
technological maturity.
Integrated circuits implied a
major breakthrough,
electronic calculators
became better and cheaper,
displacing mechanics within
only a few years 1970-1972.
Electronic calculators were
initially more expensive and
offered lower performance. Time
1900 1950 1970 28

29.
The Technology S-curve is a
powerful tool that can be used
in order to explain how
technologies evolve and
displace each other.
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30.
Find out more:
www.christiansandstrom.org