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A Flight to Simplicity



    Chris Cook   Kansas City

         23 July 2012
About me - Trading Places
“21st Century problems cannot be solved with
         20th Century solutions”.
Market 1.0 – decentralised & disconnected
Market 1.0 – physical market presence
Here: Market 2.0 - centralised & connected
Market 2.0 - presence via intermediaries
There: Market 3.0 - decentralised & connected
Market 3.0 - network presence
Here - at Twin Peaks
Peak Credit - financial demand on people
Peak Oil - demand on a finite resource
Peak Credit – intermediary Banks create
credit pyramids on their bases of Capital




               Credit

              Capital
Banks outsourced credit risk
Freeing Capital to support more credit creation
Totally – securitisation and sale of debt to
         'shadow bank' investors
Temporarily – Credit Derivatives
(CDS - a time-limited guarantee)
Partially – using credit insurance from
          insurers such as AIG
Radioactive cocktails of all three, like
 CDOs, structured finance and so on
The Result was a bigger Credit Pyramid
   than Banks alone could sustain…



              Credit


               Investor
                Capital
                 Bank
                Capital
…and an opaque 'shadow banking system' of
  Investors holding sliced and diced risk



                Credit


                 Investor
                  Capital
                   Bank
                  Capital
This pyramid of Credit funded the Mother of
    all Bubbles in US property prices….
…and servicing this credit finally exceeded
the financial capacity of the US population
Maybe the end of cheap oil spiked the bubble?
Peak Credit – was the point when the
  Property Bubble began to deflate
But by now no-one knew where the Risk was




                 Credit


                  Investor
                   Capital
                    Bank
                   Capital
Banks started to think, “if this is what
  our balance sheet looks like…..”
“…what does everyone else’s look like?”
The problem is not shortage of money -
               liquidity
It is shortage of Capital - solvency
Solvency of Banks is one aspect




            Credit


             Capital
The other aspect is the solvency of populations
And a secular decline of purchasing power
Loans which cannot be paid, will not be paid
Non-performing loans drain money out of the
                 system...
...threatening a deflationary spiral...
....which requires periodic transfusions
...to avoid Depression
Quantitative Easing – increases quantity of
      money and prevents deflation
This dilutes the value of money, and causes
      inflation of financial asset prices
Money will only inflate retail prices if lent or
           spent into circulation
But at the Zero Bound of 0% dollar interest
        rates strange things happen
Investors buy anything but dollars whether it
           carries a return or not
Investors buy Structured Products from Banks
    and Units in Exchange Traded Funds
The motive is Fear: investors aim to avoid loss,
  not to make speculative transaction profit
Financial demand – not consumption – has
  caused correlated commodity bubbles
Markets have suffered a cardiac arrest
So Investors have actually created the very
       inflation they seek to avoid
Funding – long term investment in
        productive assets
Financing - short term investment in creation
              of new assets......
....and trade credit necessary for the
   circulation of goods and services
Resolution & Transition - Getting from Here to There
“21st Century problems cannot be solved with
         20th Century solutions”.
In fact, the answers lie prior to the 18 th Century“
Community Partnership Enterprise Model

Structure - Stakeholders
  - Custodian
  - User
  - Manager
  - Investor
Legal framework – Nondominium
Investment instrument - Stock
User

           Payment




            Custodian

           %
                        %




Investor                    Manager
Legal Framework – 'Nondominium'

Two complementary agreements

Collective agreement between stakeholders jointly

Associative agreement between stakeholders
  individually or severally
Collective Agreement
Governs creation, issue and exchange of Stock, holds
 bank accounts and title/transaction registries

Stakeholders have negative veto rights

Interfaces with people and organisations (legal
  persons)
Associative Agreement

User – pays for the use of productive asset (land,
  energy, IP)
Manager – receives a proportional share in the flow of
  use value
Investor – acquires Stock consisting of 'unitised' use
  value sold forward at a discount
Complementary to the collective agreement – akin to a
  'for profit' limited company's shareholder agreement
Nondominium - Outcomes
A consensual non-statutory 'development corporation'
Neutral – removes ego and politics
Collaborative - stakeholder interests aligned – no
  principal/agent problem
Social Business – shared surplus/ 'not for loss' -
  relationship-based not transaction-based
Sustainable - everyone has an interest in minimising
  cost of use over time
Investment Instrument - Stock 1.0
Stock 2.0 – Back to the Future

Stock - an undated credit returnable in payment for use
  value of productive asset
Sold at a discount – eg £1.00 of Rental Stock sold for
  80p gives an absolute return of 25%
Rate of Return is literally the rate at which Stock may
  be returned to the issuer
Rate is not fixed, but depends on whether there is a
  flow and what it is
Stock - Outcomes
Competitive - no compound interest
Secure – no default risk, and the more affordable the
  rental, the more secure the return
Liquid – single asset class, not fragmented by date or
  interest rate
Liquid – Manager will always buy Stock on behalf of
  Users for redemption at best offer < or = to £1.00
A Flight to Simplicity

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