Intelligence-Led Policing for Decision-Makers Webinar Audio is at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Deborah-Osborne/2009/09/23/Intelligence-Led-Policing-for-Decision-Makers-Webinar This webinar, designed for law enforcement managers, covers the following topics: * Intelligence: what it is, what it is not, and what it can be * The role of the decision-maker in the intelligence cycle * Defining Intelligence-Led Policing and the 3 i's cycle * The 7 stages of Intelligence-Led Policing * Resources for learning more about Intelligence-Led Policing

1. Intelligence-Led Policingfor Police Decision-Makers by Deborah Osborne © 2009 Audio is at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Deborah-Osborne/2009/09/23/Intelligence-Led-Policing-for-Decision-Makers-Webinar

2. Why ILP? “So if 9/11 happened in a Web 1.0 world, terrorists are certainly in a Web 2.0 world now. And many of the technological tools that expedite communication today were in their infancy or didn't even exist in 2001. ” Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, from her July 29, 2009 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations

3. What is Intelligence? The Intelligence Elephant

4. A Fable Six blind men encounter an elephant. The first blind man touches the elephant's leg, and he says an elephant is like a pillar. The second blind man touches the elephant's tail, and he says, no, an elephant is like a rope. The third blind man touches the elephant's trunk, and he says you're both crazy; an elephant is just like a tree branch. The fourth blind man touches the elephant's ear, and says he is certain that an elephant is like a hand held fan. The fifth man touches the elephant's belly, and he insists that an elephant is like a wall. The sixth man touches the elephant's tusk, and he says, you are all wrong—an elephant is like a solid pipe!

5. The Fable Continued… The men were arguing about the elephant when a sighted man came along and asked them what was wrong. After they each told him what the elephant was like, he said, "You're all correct! An elephant has all the features you describe."

6. Intelligence HUMINT, OSINT, COMINT, SIGINT etc Top Secret, LE sensitive, Open Source Surveillance, wiretaps, informants Files on criminals & organized crime activities Field intelligence Arrest records, parole, probation Crime incidents, calls for service, tip lines Maps, statistics, geography/frequency pattern analysis Analysis of patterns of weapons, targets, stolen goods, victims Modus Operandi analysis Activity flow analysis

7. Elephant Problems Lack of total situational awareness Lack of mobility and functionality Lack of language to communicate Lack of ability to perceive reality Fear of the elephant by larger society Fear of change Territorialism Solving only parts of problems rather than whole problems

8. Intelligence Cycle Planning Planning Re-evaluation Collection Collection Evaluation Evaluation Dissemination Collation Analysis

9. Consider the Cycle Planning Collection Planning and direction involves decision-makers setting tactical and strategic goals Asking the right REALISTIC questions matters Planning and direction are not mentioned in the traditional crime analysis cycle Some of the best analysis involves unplanned analysis Quality and relevancy of information/data collection matters – we can’t analyze what has not been collected Gaps in collection will be uncovered and should be addressed Much of the data needed is already collected – but is untapped by analysts due to lack of knowledge, tools, imagination, training, and adequate staffing

10. Consider Cycle evaluation collation Evaluating the information/data collected for reliability, accuracy and relevance is crucial Identification of collection gaps occurs here Good communication with collectors is needed Sorting the information/data to answer the right intelligence questions can be time-consuming Sometimes we overlook problems that involve multiple crime types or groups Technology helps immensely here – but data accuracy is needed to enhance effectiveness

11. Consider the Cycle analysis dissemination Analysis means breaking apart into pieces to study the parts Synthesis occurs here as the analyst puts the parts into a new “whole” so that something new and useful is created – relevant analytical product Beware of the “if I have a hammer everything is a nail” syndrome Intelligence that does not get to the right people in a timely manner is useless Dissemination requires clear policies regarding who gets what Dissemination to other agencies can be very effective in creating goodwill as well as combating crime

12. Consider the Cycle Re-evaluation Return to cycle Did the analytical product pass the “so-what” test? How can it be improved? Did the tactics and strategies to address the problem, employed by the decision-maker as a result of the analysis, work? Do we need to modify our actions? What else do we need to know? Did we find a new problem? The cycle usually involves going backwards and forward over and over again Analytical products should be updated and tracked Tactics and strategies put into place as a result of the analysis should be tracked New problems will arise and should be addressed

13. ILP for Local LE “The second layer is local law enforcement. And if you go out one ring from individuals and the private sector, you have 780,000 law enforcement officials across 18,000 state, local and tribal law enforcement agencies. Let me just say those numbers again: 780,000 across 18,000 departments. These men and women play an absolutely critical role, because they are the ones that can act on information they receive from individuals in the community, from their own observations, or from the intelligence community itself. But the ability of state and local officials, as well as the private sector, to prepare for threats and to respond to a disaster is only as good as their ability to receive useful information, understand what it means and act upon it effectively. “Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

15. Two Main Strategies Targeting the 6% Problem Analysis How do we identify the 6% of criminals who commit 60% of crime ? How do we target the 6% of criminals who commit 60% of crime ? Example: Why are some drug “markets” in the same place for decades in your town? What works and doesn’t work in addressing chronic crime problems?

16. Laws of Intelligence #1 “The most reliable indicator of future criminal activity is current criminal activity.” #2 “Intelligence that does not influence a decision-maker is not intelligence.” (Ratcliffe 2009)

17. Tasking & Coordination Recognizing that different levels of policing have differing missions The local intelligence requirement must address crime and disorder at the local level The regional intelligence requirement must address criminal activity that crosses jurisdictions The federal intelligence requirement is dependent on the mission of the particular agency Tasking analysts based on appropriate intelligence requirements is mandatory for ILP Recognizing the needs of various levels is often absent from ILP strategies in the US because they come from top down requirements

18. Understanding Analytical Techniques & Products

19. The Analytical Divide “Crime Analysis” focus “Intelligence Analysis” focus Crime incident analysis 911 calls analysis Statistical analysis Geographic analysis MO analysis Local focus Associate analysis Financial analysis Communications analysis Commodities analysis Threat analysis State and federal focus We need integration and collaboration for improved situational awareness…

22. Coordinating involves making slight alterations to activities to accommodate the needs of another (i.e., one agency might change their hours so that they have staff available to receive referrals from another agency); and

25. run to calls, investigate, do your best

26. no analytical support

28. generally rely on traditional policing based on trusting past experiences at the gut feeling level

30. supports creativity in problem-solving and long-term projects by select individuals

31. work is thus more isolated and limited by individual initiative and time/energy constraints

37. forms and maintain strategic partnerships - shares

40. significant impact to the criminal environment, short-term and long-term, collaborate in problem- solving with those outside the jurisdiction with shared crime and criminal problems

41. Fusion Centers are a Beginning “We've now moved three dozen intelligence analysts out to the field. In other words, as we build the fusion centers, we need to move analytic capacity from the Beltway to the country. So let's -- how this is used. And I'll take it out of the terrorism context for just a moment. That if a law enforcement agency reports an increase in drug seizures of a particular type, that is a data point. That's a piece of intelligence. But a whole range of agencies working together in a particular fusion center can analyze that trend to understand what it means, how it will affect particular neighborhoods, and whether it foretells something even larger on the horizon. “ Janet Napolitano, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

42. The Future of Decision-Making Tomorrow’s police leaders will understand the potential of technology (Web 2.0) They won’t settle for I-don’t-know They will be more collaborative They will be more networked They won’t be leaders for another 10-20 years Until then, the criminals will have the advantage – they are already connected, have hi-tech resources and the power to use them

43. ILP resources Available Online

44. http://www.jratcliffe.net/ilp

45. www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/topics/ilp

46. http://www.it.ojp.gov/global

47. http://www.it.ojp.gov/global

48. http://www.kiernan-group.com/resources-policing.htm

49. http://www.popcenter.org/

50. Problem Analysis Module

51. Consider this: Wilbur Wright didn’t have a pilot’s license. Questions?

52. Thank you! www.analystscorner.com