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© Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.
INTEGRATION OF COAL-BASED FUEL INTO THE ENERGY MIX & EXPANSION
OF HYDRO POWER SOURCES THROUGH MAN-MADE DAMS FOR OPTIMAL
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN NIGERIA
Research Study Conducted By Franklin Ajaegbu
Electric power is vital to the socio-economic, industrial and technological development of every
nation. And empirical study has proved that there is a strong correlation between socio-economic
development and the availability of electricity, globally. Since economic output is explicitly
derived from energy consumption, hence, developing nations require affordable and reliable
supply of energy for sustained economic growth and industrialisation.
However, the electricity demand in Nigeria is far greater than the supply; and the supply is
epileptic in nature, which is hindering the nations’ development, notwithstanding the availability
of vast energy resource deposits in the country such as coal. And there are no concrete plans and
actions towards matching the current and projected demand levels which poses great risk to the
vision of Nigeria attaining industrialisation in the near future. The figure below depicts the past,
current and projected electricity demand levels in Nigeria, using the reference and optimistic
scenarios.
Fig: 1. ENERGY DEMAND LEVELS IN NIGERIA (PAST, CURRENT & FUTURE)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2010 2016 2020 2030
Reference
Optimistic
Source: Energy Commission of Nigeria / International Association of Energy Economist
© Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.
In figure 1 above, the electricity demand projections were computed using Model for Analysing
Energy Demand (MAED), while demography, technology, population and socio-economy are
the major drivers of energy demand in the model. In modelling the Nigeria’s energy demand,
two economic scenarios were developed and used as follows; reference scenario - 7% GDP
growth and optimistic scenario – 11.5% GDP Growth. And the growth and structure of the
economy are the major driving parameters in the two scenarios stated above. The data shows that
Nigeria requires about 50,000 Mega Watts (MW) to match the current energy demand and would
require about 150,000 MW to attain optimal supply of electricity by 2030. However, Nigeria
currently supply only about 3,000 MW of electricity, (Nigerian Electricity Regulatory
Commission - NERC), which far below the demand level, and to the detriment of her economy.
This is even against the installed generation capacity of over 8,000 MW in the country, which
shows the infrastructure decay and rot in the power sector of Nigeria.
This calls for massive investments in the three units of power value chain – Generation,
Transmission and Distribution (GTD), and diversification of the nation’s energy mix; especially
the integration of coal energy source into the national grid. The needed investment in the power
sector requires construction of 11,686MW yearly to meet the demand level as projected; which
means investing about US$ 16.15 billion yearly within the period as shown. To achieve this
progress in the energy sector, this research work recommends the integration of coal-powered
plants and man-made hydro dams into the energy mix (since gas-powered stations are not
reliable due to act of vandalising power infrastructures and security of gas supply).
Currently hydro power generates about 25% of the available electricity in Nigeria; especially the
kanji dam. However, construction of more dams (man-made) in Nigeria would go a long way in
contributing to the much needed clean power into the nation’s energy mix. Some States in the
Northern and Southern parts of Nigeria are best suited for this project because of the presence of
mountains - such as Niger, Kogi and Anambra States of Nigeria. In addition to the supply of
power, the project would also add great value to the GDP through enhancing commercial
agriculture production in Nigeria, and also generates more funds for investments in the coal-
powered plants (clean technologies).
© Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.
Coal was first discovered in large quantity in Nigeria in 1909, but the nation has not utilised this
abundant resource. In addition, coal is an important energy resource all over the world,
especially for electricity generation to power industrial development. It remains the world most
abundant and widely distributed fossil fuel, with global proven reserves in excess of one trillion
tonnes. And about 40% of the global electric power is generated from coal, with a higher
percentage on per country basis. Nigerian, with an estimated reserve of 2.734 billion tonnes, coal
holds the key to the nation’s current and future energy security. The table below shows the coal
usage amongst powerful economies of the world in comparison to Nigerian case.
Table 1. NATIONS WITH COAL IN THEIR ENERGY MIX, COMPARED TO NIGERIA
S/N COUNTRY COAL % OF ENERGY MIX
1 South Africa 93%
2 Poland 92%
3 P.R. China 79%
4 Australia 77%
5 India 69%
6 Israel 63%
7 Czech Rep. 60%
8 Morocco 55%
9 USA 49%
10 Germany 46%
11 Nigeria 0%
Source: International Energy Agency / Energy Commission of Nigeria / IAEE.
The table 1 above, shows that electricity generation in South Africa derivable from coal sources
is placed at about 93%, China 79%, India 69%, USA 49%, and 0% in Nigeria. Also, most vibrant
economies of the world, with coal deposits, match their energy demands majorly from coal-
based fuel. And Nigeria can close her energy demand and supply gap by integrating her abundant
coal deposit resources into the energy mix. With approximately 3 billion tonnes of coal deposits
in 22 locations within 15 States namely - Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Anambra, Kwara, Delta, Nasarawa,
Benue, Edo, Ebonyi, Gombe, Adamawa, Ondo, Bauchi and Plateau, Nigeria has the potentials to
© Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.
meet her optimal energy supply for her industrialization through coal based source. Hence, for
Nigeria to attain both domestic and industrial energy demands (with consideration to climate
change policy), clean-coal-based generation technologies should be integrated in the Nigeria
energy mix; such as circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC), pressurized fluidized bed
combustion (PFBC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).
Furthermore, Nigeria has higher estimated coal reserves, than USA, India, South Africa and
others; and these nations are doing great economically. Therefore, Nigeria has all the needed
advantages to integrate coal based generation in its energy mix; even with the global campaign
against the emission of CO2 into the environment, where coal combustion is assumed to be a
major contributor, clean coal generation technologies beat that claims.
Hence, this study strongly recommends that Nigeria should kick start the construction of man-
made dams within the locations best suited for hydro power stations, and also construction of
clean-coal-based power plants within the locations with coal deposits as stated above. In
addition, investments are required towards expanding the national grid (Transmission), and
distribution capacity and networks in the Nigeria. The application of this solution-based model of
energy mix diversification and investments would certainly ensure the security and optimal
supply of electricity in Nigeria by 2025. In addition, Nigerian Government should channel
energy-related policies towards attracting investments into the coal and hydro energy sources;
such as provision of tax–free holiday, government guarantees, interest-free funds and provision
of sites for such important projects.
© Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.

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Integration of coal based fuel into the energy mix & expansion of hydro power sources through man-made dams for optimal electricity supply in nigeria. external

  • 1. © Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved. INTEGRATION OF COAL-BASED FUEL INTO THE ENERGY MIX & EXPANSION OF HYDRO POWER SOURCES THROUGH MAN-MADE DAMS FOR OPTIMAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN NIGERIA Research Study Conducted By Franklin Ajaegbu Electric power is vital to the socio-economic, industrial and technological development of every nation. And empirical study has proved that there is a strong correlation between socio-economic development and the availability of electricity, globally. Since economic output is explicitly derived from energy consumption, hence, developing nations require affordable and reliable supply of energy for sustained economic growth and industrialisation. However, the electricity demand in Nigeria is far greater than the supply; and the supply is epileptic in nature, which is hindering the nations’ development, notwithstanding the availability of vast energy resource deposits in the country such as coal. And there are no concrete plans and actions towards matching the current and projected demand levels which poses great risk to the vision of Nigeria attaining industrialisation in the near future. The figure below depicts the past, current and projected electricity demand levels in Nigeria, using the reference and optimistic scenarios. Fig: 1. ENERGY DEMAND LEVELS IN NIGERIA (PAST, CURRENT & FUTURE) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2010 2016 2020 2030 Reference Optimistic Source: Energy Commission of Nigeria / International Association of Energy Economist
  • 2. © Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved. In figure 1 above, the electricity demand projections were computed using Model for Analysing Energy Demand (MAED), while demography, technology, population and socio-economy are the major drivers of energy demand in the model. In modelling the Nigeria’s energy demand, two economic scenarios were developed and used as follows; reference scenario - 7% GDP growth and optimistic scenario – 11.5% GDP Growth. And the growth and structure of the economy are the major driving parameters in the two scenarios stated above. The data shows that Nigeria requires about 50,000 Mega Watts (MW) to match the current energy demand and would require about 150,000 MW to attain optimal supply of electricity by 2030. However, Nigeria currently supply only about 3,000 MW of electricity, (Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission - NERC), which far below the demand level, and to the detriment of her economy. This is even against the installed generation capacity of over 8,000 MW in the country, which shows the infrastructure decay and rot in the power sector of Nigeria. This calls for massive investments in the three units of power value chain – Generation, Transmission and Distribution (GTD), and diversification of the nation’s energy mix; especially the integration of coal energy source into the national grid. The needed investment in the power sector requires construction of 11,686MW yearly to meet the demand level as projected; which means investing about US$ 16.15 billion yearly within the period as shown. To achieve this progress in the energy sector, this research work recommends the integration of coal-powered plants and man-made hydro dams into the energy mix (since gas-powered stations are not reliable due to act of vandalising power infrastructures and security of gas supply). Currently hydro power generates about 25% of the available electricity in Nigeria; especially the kanji dam. However, construction of more dams (man-made) in Nigeria would go a long way in contributing to the much needed clean power into the nation’s energy mix. Some States in the Northern and Southern parts of Nigeria are best suited for this project because of the presence of mountains - such as Niger, Kogi and Anambra States of Nigeria. In addition to the supply of power, the project would also add great value to the GDP through enhancing commercial agriculture production in Nigeria, and also generates more funds for investments in the coal- powered plants (clean technologies).
  • 3. © Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved. Coal was first discovered in large quantity in Nigeria in 1909, but the nation has not utilised this abundant resource. In addition, coal is an important energy resource all over the world, especially for electricity generation to power industrial development. It remains the world most abundant and widely distributed fossil fuel, with global proven reserves in excess of one trillion tonnes. And about 40% of the global electric power is generated from coal, with a higher percentage on per country basis. Nigerian, with an estimated reserve of 2.734 billion tonnes, coal holds the key to the nation’s current and future energy security. The table below shows the coal usage amongst powerful economies of the world in comparison to Nigerian case. Table 1. NATIONS WITH COAL IN THEIR ENERGY MIX, COMPARED TO NIGERIA S/N COUNTRY COAL % OF ENERGY MIX 1 South Africa 93% 2 Poland 92% 3 P.R. China 79% 4 Australia 77% 5 India 69% 6 Israel 63% 7 Czech Rep. 60% 8 Morocco 55% 9 USA 49% 10 Germany 46% 11 Nigeria 0% Source: International Energy Agency / Energy Commission of Nigeria / IAEE. The table 1 above, shows that electricity generation in South Africa derivable from coal sources is placed at about 93%, China 79%, India 69%, USA 49%, and 0% in Nigeria. Also, most vibrant economies of the world, with coal deposits, match their energy demands majorly from coal- based fuel. And Nigeria can close her energy demand and supply gap by integrating her abundant coal deposit resources into the energy mix. With approximately 3 billion tonnes of coal deposits in 22 locations within 15 States namely - Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Anambra, Kwara, Delta, Nasarawa, Benue, Edo, Ebonyi, Gombe, Adamawa, Ondo, Bauchi and Plateau, Nigeria has the potentials to
  • 4. © Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved. meet her optimal energy supply for her industrialization through coal based source. Hence, for Nigeria to attain both domestic and industrial energy demands (with consideration to climate change policy), clean-coal-based generation technologies should be integrated in the Nigeria energy mix; such as circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC), pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). Furthermore, Nigeria has higher estimated coal reserves, than USA, India, South Africa and others; and these nations are doing great economically. Therefore, Nigeria has all the needed advantages to integrate coal based generation in its energy mix; even with the global campaign against the emission of CO2 into the environment, where coal combustion is assumed to be a major contributor, clean coal generation technologies beat that claims. Hence, this study strongly recommends that Nigeria should kick start the construction of man- made dams within the locations best suited for hydro power stations, and also construction of clean-coal-based power plants within the locations with coal deposits as stated above. In addition, investments are required towards expanding the national grid (Transmission), and distribution capacity and networks in the Nigeria. The application of this solution-based model of energy mix diversification and investments would certainly ensure the security and optimal supply of electricity in Nigeria by 2025. In addition, Nigerian Government should channel energy-related policies towards attracting investments into the coal and hydro energy sources; such as provision of tax–free holiday, government guarantees, interest-free funds and provision of sites for such important projects.
  • 5. © Franklin Ajaegbu, 2016. All rights reserved.