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An incomplete agrarian transition:
Demography, migration and land
use change
Data sources: agricultural
censuses (multiple)
The Land and the
People: Rurality
and Poverty
Data sources: Population
and Housing censuses
(multiple)
Cambodia: 90% of
the poor are rural
Myanmar: 82%
Thailand: 80%
The Land and the People (cont.): An incomplete agrarian transition
Cambodia:
28.9% of the
population
internal migrants
Of whom 60% moved
from one rural area to
another
Lao PDR:
7% of the
population
internal migrants
Of whom 60% moved
from one rural area to
another
Lao PDR: 77% of the population is in agriculture
Myanmar: 52%
Vietnam: 54%
Thailand: 30%
The Land Resource Base: A land in transition
Text (normal)
Text (normal)
Forest area 1996
(million ha)
Forest area 2015
(million ha)
Percent Change
1996-2015
Percent of total
Mekong forest
Cambodia 12.11 9.46 -21.9 10.7
Lao PDR 16.97 18.76 10.5 21.2
Myanmar 36.61 29.04 -20.7 32.8
Thailand 15.81 16.40 3.7 18.5
Vietnam 10.78 14.77 37.0 16.7
Total 92.28 88.43 -4.2 100
Cumulative change in agricultural land 1995-2015
1. The vast majority of the population of the Mekong is rural, and is in agriculture,
but this sector is lacking behind other sectors
2. Poverty rates have declined considerably in the Mekong countries, but have not
declined much in rural areas
3. There are as many poor in Thailand as in Cambodia and Lao PDR combined
4. There are more poor in Myanmar than all Mekong countries combined
5. Land use change varies greatly, and sometimes unexpected: Myanmar and
Cambodia (+agriculture –forest) but Vietnam (+agriculture + forest)
6. For all of these: there are large differences between the Mekong countries, but
sub-national differences are bigger

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Ingalls state of land- panel presentation-agr trans and land concentration

  • 1. An incomplete agrarian transition: Demography, migration and land use change
  • 2. Data sources: agricultural censuses (multiple) The Land and the People: Rurality and Poverty Data sources: Population and Housing censuses (multiple) Cambodia: 90% of the poor are rural Myanmar: 82% Thailand: 80%
  • 3. The Land and the People (cont.): An incomplete agrarian transition Cambodia: 28.9% of the population internal migrants Of whom 60% moved from one rural area to another Lao PDR: 7% of the population internal migrants Of whom 60% moved from one rural area to another Lao PDR: 77% of the population is in agriculture Myanmar: 52% Vietnam: 54% Thailand: 30%
  • 4. The Land Resource Base: A land in transition Text (normal) Text (normal)
  • 5. Forest area 1996 (million ha) Forest area 2015 (million ha) Percent Change 1996-2015 Percent of total Mekong forest Cambodia 12.11 9.46 -21.9 10.7 Lao PDR 16.97 18.76 10.5 21.2 Myanmar 36.61 29.04 -20.7 32.8 Thailand 15.81 16.40 3.7 18.5 Vietnam 10.78 14.77 37.0 16.7 Total 92.28 88.43 -4.2 100 Cumulative change in agricultural land 1995-2015
  • 6. 1. The vast majority of the population of the Mekong is rural, and is in agriculture, but this sector is lacking behind other sectors 2. Poverty rates have declined considerably in the Mekong countries, but have not declined much in rural areas 3. There are as many poor in Thailand as in Cambodia and Lao PDR combined 4. There are more poor in Myanmar than all Mekong countries combined 5. Land use change varies greatly, and sometimes unexpected: Myanmar and Cambodia (+agriculture –forest) but Vietnam (+agriculture + forest) 6. For all of these: there are large differences between the Mekong countries, but sub-national differences are bigger

Editor's Notes

  1. 19 mins total
  2. Change slides and here emphasize that the intra-country differences are greater than the differences between countries--- true with everyting- make this the main derivation of the panel discussions
  3. Agriculture is still more important in some places than in others at the country level—more uniform. Enphasize that urbancomunities arealso involved in ag, regional specialization, also absolute numbers are very diffferent-- make this is a systematic insight in this panel.
  4. Land Use Land Cover– these demographic and economic changes relate to major changes in land use and land cover
  5. Final key facts/figures