Inflation watch 4.18.11
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Inflation is important for real estate agents because it can influence interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed typically lowers rates to stimulate the economy but higher rates may be used to combat inflation. This document discusses recent inflation trends, including rising producer and energy prices beginning to impact consumer prices. There is an expectation among economists of further price and cost increases. Some fear that high inflation or stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation, could occur.
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In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern.
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Inflation Watch: July 2011
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern.
Inflation Watch: August 2011
Inflation increased from July to August according to several measures, though crude materials prices declined. Year-over-year inflation remains high due to previous price increases. While core consumer prices are within the target range of 1-2% and headline consumer prices are within 2-4%, prices for necessities like food, transportation, and medical costs increased at above average rates raising concerns.
Inflation Watch: December 2011
- Inflation remained moderate in November with overall prices flat, but prices are still noticeably higher than a year ago.
- Some prices like food, transportation and medical services are rising at concerning rates.
- The Federal Reserve will likely continue its low interest rate policy through mid-2013 to support economic growth, though this could increase inflation risks.
Inflation Watch: November 2011
- Inflation moderated or declined in October for measures like the consumer price index, gold prices, and producer price indexes, though prices remain higher than a year ago.
- While overall and core consumer prices remain within the Fed's target range of 1-2% and 2-4% respectively, they are approaching the upper bounds.
- The relaxation in price growth in October means the Fed will likely continue its low-rate policy committed through mid-2013.
Inflation Watch: September 2011
While inflation remained moderate in September due to declining commodity prices, consumer prices continue to rise and are approaching the upper bounds of the Federal Reserve's target range. Certain necessities like food, transportation, and healthcare are seeing considerable price increases. Stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation, remains a risk if interest rates are not properly managed.
Global inflation
Global inflation is increasing due to rising commodity prices, with inflation around 6% in Brazil, 10% in India, and 2.4% in the Euro area. However, much of the price increases are due to temporary factors like weak harvests or tax increases. Core inflation excluding food and fuel has risen much less. Emerging markets face more risk of persistent inflation as their economies are growing faster and monetary conditions are looser than in 2008. Tighter fiscal policy through reduced budget deficits would be a better tool than interest rates for emerging markets to fight inflation.
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Inflation Watch: June 2011
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern.
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In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern in a brief, polished presentation.
Inflation Watch: July 2011
In the Inflation Watch series, NAR Research focuses on the price level. We monitor measures of inflation that affect the business of REALTORS® and summarize their impact, highlighting areas of potential concern.
Inflation Watch: August 2011
Inflation increased from July to August according to several measures, though crude materials prices declined. Year-over-year inflation remains high due to previous price increases. While core consumer prices are within the target range of 1-2% and headline consumer prices are within 2-4%, prices for necessities like food, transportation, and medical costs increased at above average rates raising concerns.
Inflation Watch: December 2011
- Inflation remained moderate in November with overall prices flat, but prices are still noticeably higher than a year ago.
- Some prices like food, transportation and medical services are rising at concerning rates.
- The Federal Reserve will likely continue its low interest rate policy through mid-2013 to support economic growth, though this could increase inflation risks.
Inflation Watch: November 2011
- Inflation moderated or declined in October for measures like the consumer price index, gold prices, and producer price indexes, though prices remain higher than a year ago.
- While overall and core consumer prices remain within the Fed's target range of 1-2% and 2-4% respectively, they are approaching the upper bounds.
- The relaxation in price growth in October means the Fed will likely continue its low-rate policy committed through mid-2013.
Inflation Watch: September 2011
While inflation remained moderate in September due to declining commodity prices, consumer prices continue to rise and are approaching the upper bounds of the Federal Reserve's target range. Certain necessities like food, transportation, and healthcare are seeing considerable price increases. Stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation, remains a risk if interest rates are not properly managed.
Global inflation
Global inflation is increasing due to rising commodity prices, with inflation around 6% in Brazil, 10% in India, and 2.4% in the Euro area. However, much of the price increases are due to temporary factors like weak harvests or tax increases. Core inflation excluding food and fuel has risen much less. Emerging markets face more risk of persistent inflation as their economies are growing faster and monetary conditions are looser than in 2008. Tighter fiscal policy through reduced budget deficits would be a better tool than interest rates for emerging markets to fight inflation.
Inflation Watch: February 17, 2011
Inflation is important for real estate agents because changes in prices can impact interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. While fears of deflation emerged during the financial crisis, inflation has now become a concern, with some worried that high unemployment and inflation could result in stagflation, making it difficult for the Fed to address inflation without further hurting the job market. Producer prices are showing signs of inflation and commodity prices remain high, though consumer prices are more subdued, putting upward pressure on prices from a weak dollar and increasing costs of imported goods.
Is the World Economy Heading for the Great Deflation?
The document discusses the rising risk of a "Great Deflation", where falling commodity and asset prices could trigger a vicious cycle of declining global prices, economic activity, income, investment, and consumption. Lower oil prices and stock market declines are exacerbating global deflationary pressures. A Great Deflation would significantly weaken the global economic outlook and hurt commodity exporting nations the most. While central banks' monetary policies have proven ineffective against deflation, increased government spending may be needed to boost demand and stabilize prices.
Why Fear Deflation? A Tutorial
1) The document discusses why economists fear deflation, noting that sustained deflation can interfere with the smooth operation of the economy.
2) Deflation becomes problematic when nominal interest rates hit 0%, as further deflation causes real interest rates to rise, discouraging borrowing and economic activity. Unexpected deflation can also cause losses for banks by reducing the value of loans and collateral.
3) Deflation limits the effectiveness of monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts once rates hit 0%, and alternative tools like quantitative easing have had mixed results in stimulating economies.
4) Deflation also creates challenges for labor markets, as workers resist nominal wage cuts even if they only match falling prices, which can lead to higher
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Subtopics:
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Index Figures, Measuring Inflation
The CPI
RPI: An Alternative Measure of Inflation
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The global economy entered 2015 facing deflationary pressures, as falling oil prices pushed the Eurozone and other regions into disinflation or deflation. Lower energy costs were affecting wages, asset prices, and expectations of future inflation. If wages and prices continue declining, the world risks entering a prolonged period of deflation known as the "Great Deflation." Evidence showed disinflation slowing wage growth, house prices falling in major economies, and global stock prices declining in recent months. To avoid a continued disinflationary spiral, governments may need fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand.
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The document discusses inflation and its effects. It defines the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as measuring average price changes in a basket of goods and services over time to indicate inflation. Due to inflation, goods and services cost more so purchasing power decreases, financial planning is difficult, and pensioners and those on fixed incomes are particularly impacted. Inflation can also spur wage-price spirals as unions demand higher pay to offset higher costs, potentially fueling further inflation. The document lists inflation rates for various countries from 2012, with India having the highest rate of 9.3%.
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The document discusses the concept of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (Nairu). The Nairu represents the lowest level of unemployment an economy can sustain before wages and prices begin to rapidly increase. It captures both parts of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and price stability. However, estimating the precise Nairu is difficult because the relationship between unemployment and inflation has changed over time and the Phillips Curve is no longer stable. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve monitors unemployment relative to estimates of the Nairu when making decisions around interest rates and monetary policy.
Inflation & Types of Inflation
This document defines different types of inflation and provides examples of each. It discusses creeping, walking, and galloping inflation, defined by annual price increases of less than 3%, 3-10%, and over 10% respectively. Hyperinflation occurs when prices rise over 50% per month. Stagflation is when economic growth stagnates while prices still inflate. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices. Wage inflation is when pay rises faster than cost of living. Demand pull inflation results from demand increasing faster than supply, while cost push inflation stems from higher production costs.
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Subtopics
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Impacts of Economic Growth content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
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The global economic recovery will continue but will remain uneven, with ongoing challenges like high commodity prices, fiscal tightening, and weakened banking systems. The US recovery will rely on risky fiscal and monetary policies while the dollar pressure continues. The European recovery will be mixed in 2011 with divergence between countries. The sovereign debt crisis can be managed if political will exists both nationally and within the EU to find a convincing long-term solution, though intervention may still be needed in the short-term. Inflation will remain low in both the US and Europe in 2011-2012, and interest rates will rise gradually in Europe while remaining low overall. Government bond yields will remain volatile without a clear resolution to the European debt problems.
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The document discusses inflation and its effects. It describes rising food prices around the world in 2008 which increased costs of living and pushed up wages, impacting the overall supply of goods and services. Central banks were concerned this rising food inflation could lead to broader inflation across the economy. The document asks what the Fed would likely do to stop inflation, the consequences for the economy, and the impacts on employment and unemployment from the Fed's actions.
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The document discusses the rising risk of a "Great Deflation", where falling commodity and asset prices could trigger a vicious cycle of declining global prices, economic activity, income, investment, and consumption. Lower oil prices and stock market declines are exacerbating global deflationary pressures. A Great Deflation would significantly weaken the global economic outlook and hurt commodity exporting nations the most. While central banks' monetary policies have proven ineffective against deflation, increased government spending may be needed to boost demand and stabilize prices.
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1) The document discusses why economists fear deflation, noting that sustained deflation can interfere with the smooth operation of the economy.
2) Deflation becomes problematic when nominal interest rates hit 0%, as further deflation causes real interest rates to rise, discouraging borrowing and economic activity. Unexpected deflation can also cause losses for banks by reducing the value of loans and collateral.
3) Deflation limits the effectiveness of monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts once rates hit 0%, and alternative tools like quantitative easing have had mixed results in stimulating economies.
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Inflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measured content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics:
Intro to Inflation
Index Figures, Measuring Inflation
The CPI
RPI: An Alternative Measure of Inflation
Fiscal deficit & inflation gaurav tripathi jamia millia islamia, new delhi
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I prepared this slide on my research paper 'fiscal deficit and inflation ' on the current economic situation of India. In this data has been collected from economic survey 2011-12 and several other books. This slide has full data how the the central govt. and central bank uses their, fiscal policy and monetary policy respectively Hope, it will provide a good help for students who want to know about these concepts of economics.
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The global economy entered 2015 facing deflationary pressures, as falling oil prices pushed the Eurozone and other regions into disinflation or deflation. Lower energy costs were affecting wages, asset prices, and expectations of future inflation. If wages and prices continue declining, the world risks entering a prolonged period of deflation known as the "Great Deflation." Evidence showed disinflation slowing wage growth, house prices falling in major economies, and global stock prices declining in recent months. To avoid a continued disinflationary spiral, governments may need fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand.
Delores week1 assignment
This document defines several key macroeconomic terms:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a one-year period. Real GDP adjusts for inflation to show economic growth. Nominal GDP measures current market value. Unemployment rate refers to those able to work but unemployed. Inflation rate shows rising prices. Fiscal policy involves government taxation and spending to influence Aggregate Demand. Monetary policy is how the Federal Reserve controls money supply and credit. The Aggregate Demand curve depicts different price levels and output demanded in the economy.
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This document summarizes New Zealand's business cycles since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. It discusses 4 main business cycles: 1) the global financial crisis, 2) a green shoot recovery from 2009-2010, 3) a period of domestic caution and global uncertainty from 2012-2012, and 4) a time of persistently low inflation from 2014 to present day. During each cycle, the document outlines changes in economic indicators like GDP, inflation, interest rates, and immigration. It also describes the monetary and fiscal policy responses used in New Zealand to address challenges in each economic period.
What is Inflation?
The document discusses inflation and its effects. It defines the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as measuring average price changes in a basket of goods and services over time to indicate inflation. Due to inflation, goods and services cost more so purchasing power decreases, financial planning is difficult, and pensioners and those on fixed incomes are particularly impacted. Inflation can also spur wage-price spirals as unions demand higher pay to offset higher costs, potentially fueling further inflation. The document lists inflation rates for various countries from 2012, with India having the highest rate of 9.3%.
What is the Nairu and Why Does It Matter?
The document discusses the concept of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (Nairu). The Nairu represents the lowest level of unemployment an economy can sustain before wages and prices begin to rapidly increase. It captures both parts of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and price stability. However, estimating the precise Nairu is difficult because the relationship between unemployment and inflation has changed over time and the Phillips Curve is no longer stable. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve monitors unemployment relative to estimates of the Nairu when making decisions around interest rates and monetary policy.
Inflation & Types of Inflation
This document defines different types of inflation and provides examples of each. It discusses creeping, walking, and galloping inflation, defined by annual price increases of less than 3%, 3-10%, and over 10% respectively. Hyperinflation occurs when prices rise over 50% per month. Stagflation is when economic growth stagnates while prices still inflate. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices. Wage inflation is when pay rises faster than cost of living. Demand pull inflation results from demand increasing faster than supply, while cost push inflation stems from higher production costs.
inflation project
This document outlines a web quest project for high school economics students on the topic of inflation in the Philippines. It provides tasks for students to research inflation rates and their impacts. Students are assigned the role of an IMF representative and must create a position paper exploring how inflation is calculated in the Philippines, its effects on Filipinos, and possible policies to soften its impact. A variety of online resources are provided to facilitate research.
Causes of Economic Growth
Causes of Economic Growth content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics
Actual & Potential Economic Growth
Demand side Causes of Economic Growth
Supply side Causes of Economic Growth
Constraints on Economic Growth
Export-led Growth
Impacts of Economic Growth
Impacts of Economic Growth content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics
Positive Impacts
Negative Impacts
Keynote - GRI European Summit 2011
The global economic recovery will continue but will remain uneven, with ongoing challenges like high commodity prices, fiscal tightening, and weakened banking systems. The US recovery will rely on risky fiscal and monetary policies while the dollar pressure continues. The European recovery will be mixed in 2011 with divergence between countries. The sovereign debt crisis can be managed if political will exists both nationally and within the EU to find a convincing long-term solution, though intervention may still be needed in the short-term. Inflation will remain low in both the US and Europe in 2011-2012, and interest rates will rise gradually in Europe while remaining low overall. Government bond yields will remain volatile without a clear resolution to the European debt problems.
Macro Economics - Stagflation
Stagflation is an economic cycle characterized by high inflation, high unemployment, and low economic growth. The document discusses stagflation, providing causes such as oil crises and monetary policy, effects such as high unemployment and inflation, and solutions such as increasing money supply and reducing taxes. It analyzes stagflation in the 1970s U.S. and India in the 2011-2013 period, where India showed signs of overheating and weakness simultaneously.
Quantitative Easing
QE has become an integral part of monetary policy in a number of countries over the last ten years. Essentially it has been part of a strategy of cheap money brought in by central banks as a policy response the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis amid fears of a return to deflationary depression experienced in the 1930s. Economic historians will surely debate the role of Quantitative Easing (QE) in staving off a depression for many years to come.
Inflation Watch for January, 2011
Inflation is important for real estate agents because changes in prices can impact interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. During the financial crisis, there were fears of deflation leading to a downward price spiral similar to the Great Depression. While deflation fears have lessened, some worry high inflation in coming years could result in stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation making it hard for central banks to address inflation without further hurting jobs. Commodity and metal prices are rising along with oil, adding inflationary pressure, though the dollar is showing recent strength against these pressures.
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The document discusses inflation and its effects. It describes rising food prices around the world in 2008 which increased costs of living and pushed up wages, impacting the overall supply of goods and services. Central banks were concerned this rising food inflation could lead to broader inflation across the economy. The document asks what the Fed would likely do to stop inflation, the consequences for the economy, and the impacts on employment and unemployment from the Fed's actions.
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Metro Unemployment Data: September 2011
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While some prices declined in August and September, inflation remains a concern. Consumer prices are rising for many necessities like food, housing, and transportation. While overall inflation is within the target range of 1-2% and 2-4%, some prices are increasing at a considerable rate and approaching the upper bounds of those ranges. The Federal Reserve must balance keeping interest rates low to stimulate the economy with raising them to combat inflation.
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inflation
1. Inflation is defined as a rise in the general level of prices where a unit of currency buys less than it previously could. It occurs when the money supply grows faster than the economy.
2. There are three main types of inflation: demand-pull inflation caused by increased demand, cost-push inflation caused by increased costs of production, and built-in inflation caused by expectations of future inflation.
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The document provides an analysis of the current economic landscape and projections for recovery. It summarizes key economic indicators showing the severity of the recession across sectors such as housing, employment, manufacturing, and consumer spending. Government responses are also reviewed, including stimulus programs aimed at supporting recovery in 2009-2010. Challenges to recovery are noted, but a gradual cyclical upturn is projected starting in 2010, led by increased employment and spending. Longer term issues facing the US economy are also discussed.
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Home prices showed a slight decline in January according to most measures, with the exception of CoreLogic's distressed-excluded measure which increased slightly. Early February data showed year-over-year price increases for the first time since November 2010 according to existing home sales. Distressed sales, which hold back price increases, comprised 34% of sales in a recent survey, down from nearly 40% a year ago. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong demand are expected to continue supporting home prices.
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The document summarizes inflation data for March 2012. It reports that consumer and producer prices increased 0.4% in March, with annual inflation at 2.9% and 3.3% respectively. Some items like food and medical services saw price increases above overall inflation. The Federal Reserve is committed to low interest rates through 2014 to boost the economy, but high inflation could force them to raise rates sooner.
State Employment Trends: January 2012
The document summarizes state employment trends from February 2012. It highlights that the US unemployment rate declined in January 2012 and that most states also saw improvements in their unemployment rates over the previous month and year. It notes that over 40 states added jobs in January 2012 and that job growth was seen in 44 states over the previous year. The outlook is that increasing labor force participation may slow further declines in unemployment rates even as new jobs are added. The rest of the document provides charts showing nonfarm payroll employment levels for each state from 2007 to 2011.
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Home prices rose slightly in November according to some measures but declined according to others. Distressed home sales made up 32% of total sales in November, down from 40% a year ago. Most forecasts predict stable or increasing home prices in coming months, supported by low inventories and affordable prices, though limited new construction could constrain buyer options.
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The document summarizes home price data from various sources in January 2012. It finds that while most measures showed slight monthly price increases in November, year-over-year declines remained small. Distressed home sales made up 32% of the market, down from 40% a year ago. The outlook anticipated limited new construction supply balancing with low inventories, declining delinquencies, and potential economic improvements supporting home prices.
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The document analyzes unemployment rates in 27 major metro areas in the United States. It finds that while unemployment is not back to normal levels everywhere, 24 areas saw job gains in the last year and unemployment improved in 25 areas. Minneapolis had the lowest unemployment rate at 5.5% in December while Las Vegas had the highest at 12.7%. Houston had the biggest payroll growth over the last year.
State Employment Trends: December 2011
The unemployment rate in the US and most states declined in December 2011. 46 states saw an improvement in their unemployment rate over the past year, led by Nevada, Florida, and New Mexico. 25 states and DC experienced job growth in December, though the average growth among states was less than previous months. While unemployment rates declined, this may be partly due to a decrease in workforce participation, which could keep unemployment rates high or cause them to rise despite new job creation.
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The document discusses recent inflation trends in the US. In December, consumer and producer prices either moderated or declined for items like food, energy and utilities, causing overall inflation measures to remain flat or decrease slightly. However, some prices like food at home and medical services increased at concerning rates. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve will likely continue its low interest rate policy through 2013 to support the economy, which risks potential future inflation.
On Common Ground: Winter 2012
The document discusses how developers are addressing affordable housing needs in the current economic environment by building on a smaller scale with slower development. Specifically, some developers are focusing on smaller projects that do not require as much debt, and many home builders are constructing smaller homes to match current consumer demand. Additionally, local realtor associations are playing important roles in their communities by addressing workforce housing needs through various strategies like sustainable affordable housing.
Metro Area Unemployment Data: January 2012
While unemployment rates have improved in most metro areas compared to a year ago, there is still significant geographic variation. The Minneapolis area had the lowest unemployment rate in November at 5.1%, while Las Vegas continued to have the highest at 12.5%. Twenty-six of the 27 metro areas reviewed saw decreases in their unemployment rates over the last year, with only Chicago seeing an increase. Las Vegas saw the greatest improvement, with its unemployment rate falling 2.4 percentage points from 14.9% to 12.5% over the year.
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State Employment Trends: November 2011
The unemployment rate declined in November across most states and nationally. Forty-three states and DC saw declines, with Michigan, Alabama, Minnesota, South Carolina and Utah seeing drops over 0.5%. New Mexico saw the largest year-over-year improvement. Most states also added jobs in November, led by South Carolina, while Alaska lost jobs. However, slowing labor force growth may keep unemployment rates from declining further despite job creation.
Global Perspectives December 2011
Canadian buyers are a significant source of demand for US real estate. Canadians accounted for 23% of international buyers in 2010, up from 7% in 2007. Factors driving Canadian demand include the strong Canadian dollar, relatively lower home prices in the US, and higher returns on investment properties. Popular destinations for Canadian buyers include Florida, Arizona, and parts of the Western US. Real estate professionals are advised to connect with Canadian agents and professionals to build referral relationships and tap into the growing Canadian market.
Global Perspectives October 2011
The document discusses strategies for real estate agents to build successful multicultural teams. It recommends that agents partner with others who have complementary skills and specialize in different niche markets. This allows the team members to leverage each other's strengths and expand their reach. The document provides tips for agents to formalize roles, create compensation agreements, and develop communication systems to ensure their team runs smoothly. It highlights one successful team that specializes in the Canadian and UK markets in Florida.
House Price Monitor: November 2011
The document summarizes home price data from various sources in November 2011. Most sources showed a typical seasonal month-to-month decline in home prices except for the FHFA price index and CoreLogic index, which increased slightly. Year-over-year comparisons showed price declines of 1-4% from the previous year, around the same as prior months. New home prices continued to fluctuate due to low construction levels. Distressed home sales remained around 30% of total sales, slowing price growth. Low inventories, declining delinquencies, and stable buyer traffic were expected to support prices despite limited new home construction options for buyers.
House Price Monitor: November 2011
The document summarizes various home price measures from November 2011. Most measures showed the typical seasonal month-to-month decline, except the FHFA price index and CoreLogic index which increased slightly. Year-over-year price changes remained around 1-4% decline. New home prices continued to fluctuate due to low construction levels. Distressed sales remained around 30% of total sales. Low inventory, declining delinquency rates, and stable buyer traffic were expected to support prices despite limited housing options.
Home Price Monitor: October 2011
While home prices were stable month-to-month in August, typical seasonal declines occurred in September as the summer selling season ended. Compared to a year ago, price changes remained stable between August and September for existing homes with a 3-4% annual decline in both months, while new home prices worsened somewhat. Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, continue to make up about 30% of sales, down from nearly 40% earlier in the year. Limited new construction means buyers initially looking for new homes may find more selection among existing homes.
State Employment Trends: September 2011
The US unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at 9.1% but has decreased from 9.6% a year ago. Unemployment rates improved in 25 states and were unchanged in 12 states in September. Louisiana and Minnesota saw the largest improvements of 0.3%. Since September last year, 38 states have seen lower unemployment rates, with New Mexico experiencing the biggest drop from 8.6% to 6.6%.
Home Price Monitor: September 2011
Most home price measures increased in July, though new home prices weakened slightly. NAR's median price measure showed weakness in July and August, possibly due to the end of the peak buying season and changing home mix. Over the year, home prices are down slightly but the decline is small, especially excluding distressed sales. Low new construction and little new home activity cause volatility in new home price data. Distressed sales, which hold back prices, comprise around 30% of sales, down from 40% earlier in the year, and this should help support price increases. Stable to declining inventories and rising apartment rents relative to affordable home prices make buying attractive.
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Inflation watch 4.18.11
- 1. RESEARCH April 2011 Inflation Watch An Eye on Prices April 15, 2011 Next Release: May 13, 2011
- 2. Inflation Watch Inflation (price-level growth) is important for REALTORS® because it can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Generally, the FOMC lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, rates that are too low may lead to inflation. To combat inflation, the central bank increases interest rates but this policy may dampen economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates could bring home buyers into the market and create jobs while higher mortgage rates caused by inflation or central bank action could reduce demand among home buyers. RESEARCH
- 3. Inflation Watch During the recent financial crisis, fears of deflation (price-level decline) were rampant. (Deflation caused a downward spiral of prices that destroyed the economy in the Great Depression.) With financial markets now stable, some fear that inflation is around the corner. Stagflation, another unpleasant economic condition characterized by high unemployment and high inflation, is also a possibility. In stagflation, it is difficult for the central bank to raise interest rates to combat inflation due fear of further job market deterioration if demand is hurt by the increased interest rates. RESEARCH
- 4. April 2011 Highlights Increases in producer prices are beginning to creep into consumer prices, especially in energy prices Headline consumer prices increased far too quickly in the month; only apparel, computers, and household furnishings have seen price declines A survey of industry economists finds rising prices and the expectation of further price and cost increases RESEARCH
- 7. PCUSLFE CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100 CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100 PCUSLFE.EMF (USECON) PCUSLFE / PCU 10603-11102
- 8. PCUHSHO CPI-U: Owners' Equivalent Rent/Primary Residence % Change - Year to Year SA, Dec-82=100 PCUHSHO.EMF (USECON) PCUHSHO 10103-11102
- 9. SP3000 PPI: Finished Goods % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100 PPI: Finished Goods less Food and Energy % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100 SP3000.EMF (USECON) SP3000 / SP3500 10603-11102
- 10. PZGOL Cash Price: Gold Bullion, London Commodity Price, PM Fix US$/troy Oz PZGOL.EMF (USECON) PZGOL 10603-11102
- 11. PZTEX Domestic Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate % Change - Year to Year $/Barrel PZTEX.EMF (USECON) PZTEX 10103-11102
- 12. PMEA Import Price Index: All Imports NSA, 2000=100 PMEA.EMF (USECON) PMEA 10004-11103
- 13. CCIHF Houses under Construction: Fixed-Weighted Price Index NSA, 2005=100 NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States $ CCIHF.EMF (USECON) CCIHF / USMNBDP 10102-11101