Keynote - GRI European Summit 2011
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The global economic recovery will continue but will remain uneven, with ongoing challenges like high commodity prices, fiscal tightening, and weakened banking systems. The US recovery will rely on risky fiscal and monetary policies while the dollar pressure continues. The European recovery will be mixed in 2011 with divergence between countries. The sovereign debt crisis can be managed if political will exists both nationally and within the EU to find a convincing long-term solution, though intervention may still be needed in the short-term. Inflation will remain low in both the US and Europe in 2011-2012, and interest rates will rise gradually in Europe while remaining low overall. Government bond yields will remain volatile without a clear resolution to the European debt problems.
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Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 August
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
June 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
The global economic forecast saw slowing GDP growth in Q1 2011 due to rising oil prices impacting consumer spending. While job growth weakened in May, the report assumes the economy will regain momentum in H2. Medium-term growth will be constrained by fiscal tightening and deleveraging. The earthquake in Japan is expected to reduce GDP growth to -0.5% in 2011 due to impacts on supply chains and power, but a recovery is anticipated in H2 driven by manufacturing and reconstruction. Emerging markets face inflation risks requiring further monetary tightening.
May 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
- Global GDP growth softened to 1.8% in Q1 2011 due to high oil prices impacting consumer spending and confidence, while unemployment remained persistently high.
- Monetary policy tightening is needed in countries like China and elsewhere in the emerging world to control inflation, while fiscal austerity and high borrowing costs will constrain growth in southern European countries.
- The earthquake and tsunami in Japan severely impacted power supplies and supply chains, leading to a downgrade of Japan's 2011 GDP growth forecast to 1%.
EIU Webinar_European Debt Crisis_Nov 23 2010
As a result of the financial crisis and global recession public debt burdens have risen to critical levels in a number of Western European countries. Emergency loans from the EU and IMF have eased funding pressures, but have only bought the region time; painful fiscal adjustment and an improvement in competitiveness is required if the region is to enjoy a sustainable recovery.
Eastern Europe, while rebounding through exports and industrial output, will underperform its emerging-market peers in 2010. Business and consumer sentiment in the region is fragile, and its currency and bond markets are vulnerable to contagion from problems in the euro zone or a rise in risk aversion more broadly.
This presentation takes a look at the economic outlook for both Western and Eastern Europe.
January 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
January 2013 World Economic Situation and ProspectsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
- The world economy continues to struggle in recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis, with growth projected to reach only 2.4% in 2013.
- Weakness in major developed economies, particularly in Europe and Japan, are dragging down the global economy, while some emerging markets are also slowing.
- Significant economic risks remain, including further deterioration of the eurozone crisis, uncertainty around US fiscal policy, and the potential for economic hard landings in large emerging economies like China. More proactive policy actions are needed to address these risks and support stronger global growth.The UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy
The UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World EconomyDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
The UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (Project LINK) was held in New York on 24-26 October. The agenda of the meeting included three broad items: (1) Economic outlook for the world economy in 2012-2013, (2) Major macroeconomic policy issues, and (3) Econometric modelling. The LINK Global Economic Outlook summarizes the forecasts for the world economy in 2012-2013. Also available are the LINK Country Reports which contain detailed country forecasts and policy analyses. The Global Economy No. 1 - January 31, 2012
The Global Economy No. 1 - January 31, 2012: The fiscal pact is one step forward – strengthening growth and support mechanisms will be harder
July 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
The global economic forecast slowed in the first quarter of 2011 due to rising oil prices negatively impacting consumer spending. While job growth weakened, the report assumes the economy will regain momentum in the second half. However, fiscal tightening and household deleveraging will constrain medium-term growth. The eurozone economy also slowed, with fiscal austerity and high borrowing costs holding back peripheral countries. The earthquake in Japan severely contracted the economy in the second quarter, but a recovery is expected in the second half.
Where Next For The World Economy
A powerpoint presentation on the state of the global recovery, with specific reference to the US, Eurozone, and CEEMEA
EIU Global Economic Forecast January 2012
The document provides an economic forecast summary from January 2012 by the global forecasting service Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). It summarizes forecasts for major economies and regions including the US, eurozone, Japan, emerging markets, and commodities. Key points include weak growth in the US and eurozone in 2012, contraction in the eurozone economy, and emerging markets outperforming developed economies through 2016.
Horacio Outlook 2012-FINAL
- The document discusses the outlook for 2012 following a volatile 2011 marked by events like the Japanese earthquake, Arab Spring, US credit downgrade, and ongoing European debt crisis.
- It summarizes the views of Horacio Valeiras, CIO of Allianz Global Investors Capital, on risks and opportunities in 2012, including expectations for slow growth in Europe, political gridlock in the US, and stronger growth in emerging markets compared to developed nations.
- Valeiras expects global monetary policy alignment to continue in 2012, with risks of higher long-term inflation, and sees China avoiding a hard landing despite property market risks.
February EIU Global Economic Forecast 2012
The document provides an economic forecast summary for February 2012 from an global forecasting service. It summarizes forecasts and outlooks for various economies and industries. Key points include revised GDP growth forecasts for some countries and regions due to recent data, monetary policy outlooks, housing and labor market trends, and forecasts for commodity prices and consumption growth. Risks discussed include the eurozone crisis, slowing growth in emerging markets, and geopolitical instability.
Economic forcast
The document provides an economic forecast summary for February 2012 from the global forecasting service Economic Intelligence Unit. It summarizes forecasts and outlooks for various economies and industries. Key points include revised GDP growth forecasts for some countries and regions, monetary policy outlooks, factors influencing commodity prices and demand, and risks to the global economic outlook.
Bond letter (2014.12.01 en ww)
This monthly bond letter from Pictet Asset Management provides an overview and analysis of developments in global bond markets in December 2014. It discusses slowing economic growth in major economies, accommodative monetary policies, and subdued inflation. The document analyzes factors impacting various regions and bond sectors, including comments on the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and corporate credit markets. Forecasts suggest leading bond markets will remain steady given ongoing economic uncertainty, low inflation, and supportive central bank policies.
Putting the-euro-area-on-a-road-to-recovery
The document discusses policies to promote faster recovery in the euro area. It finds that weak domestic demand, rather than exports, has held back growth. While some structural reforms have helped potential growth, others are needed to address problems like high unemployment, low inflation, and constrained credit in some countries. The document recommends that monetary, fiscal and structural policies be used in a coordinated manner, with more stimulus from the ECB, greater flexibility of fiscal rules, increased public investment, and further structural reforms to boost potential growth.
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 47
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 47Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
Published by DESA’s Development Policy and Analysis Division, the September issue of the Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects covers recent events affecting the world economy such as the connection between slowing growth in Europe and weaker exports from Asia. The recessionary environment in Europe is reducing growth prospects for some developing economies as it weakens demand for those economies’ exports. This has been felt most strongly in East and South Asia, where exports to the EU are down by 7.2 per cent year on year, and Western Asia (including Iran) where exports are down 18 per cent.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtmlDeclaracion de Mario Draghi (2 de agosto de 2012)
The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged following a decrease the previous month. Inflation is expected to decline in 2012 and be below 2% in 2013, while economic growth in the euro area remains weak. The Governing Council discussed undertaking outright open market operations and other non-standard measures to address high risk premia in bond markets, which are hindering monetary policy transmission. Policymakers need to push ahead with fiscal consolidation, reforms, and institution building to create conditions for risk premia to disappear.
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...
The document summarizes Standard & Poor's outlook for global credit markets in 2012. Key points include:
- Sovereign debt problems in Europe and potential fiscal tightening in the US increase uncertainty and risk of recession.
- The US recovery is expected to continue but unemployment will likely remain above 8%. Growth in emerging markets should be solid.
- European economies will likely see continued recession in the first half of 2012 driven by weak demand, tight credit conditions, and high unemployment. Housing markets will remain weak except in the UK.
February 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
February 2013 World Economic Situation and ProspectsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
- Recent policy initiatives in Japan, the US, and Europe have improved the situation in global financial markets, but uncertainties remain high.
- Japan implemented a large stimulus package and increased inflation targets, significantly depreciating the yen against other currencies.
- The US Federal Reserve set a numerical target of 6.5% unemployment for the first time and continues monetary easing.
- Major central banks adopted open-ended bond purchasing programs to anchor expectations, though this strategy raises some concerns.March 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
March 2013 World Economic Situation and ProspectsDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
- The US Congress failed to agree on deficit reduction, triggering automatic spending cuts of $1.2 trillion equally split between defense and non-defense programs. This is estimated to reduce the fiscal deficit but also cut GDP and jobs.
- Weaknesses persist in the EU as Italy's election raised doubts over reforms and GDP declined more than expected in many countries in Q4 2012. France is expected to miss its deficit target.
- The Japanese yen sharply depreciated against the dollar and euro, worrying other Asian countries about competitive currency devaluations.Similar to Keynote - GRI European Summit 2011 (20)
January 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
January 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
The UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy
The UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 47
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 47
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...
February 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
February 2013 World Economic Situation and Prospects
Keynote - GRI European Summit 2011
- 1. Global Economic Outlook 2012 GRI Europe Summit 2011 Paris, 8 September 2011 Dr. Jürgen Pfister, Chief Economist and Head of Research
- 3. Global economy: Two-speed recovery (1) Inflation and seasonally-adjusted GDP vs. trend, quarterly figures, first quarter 2000=100
- 4. US: Slow recovery Inflation and seasonally-adjusted GDP, change on previous period in percent, annualized
- 5. US: Adjustment to losses in wealth completed Private household saving rate in percent and change in net worth in trillions of dollars 1) 1) Saving rate: H1 2011; net worth: Q1 2011
- 6. US: Widening gap Share of government outlays and revenues in percent of GDP Gross-government debt as percentage of GDP 99% End-2011: 61% End-2006:
- 7. Euro area: Slow recovery Inflation-adjusted GDP, change on previous period in percent
- 8. Euro area: Two-speed recovery (2) Inflation and seasonally-adjusted GDP, first quarter 2008=100
- 9. Euro area: Slow progress towards sustainable public finances General government deficit and gross debt as percent of GDP
- 11. US/Euro area: ECB ahead of the Fed In percent p.a.
- 12. Bond markets: Low bond yields for a while Yields on ten-year government bonds, monthly averages in percent
- 15. Thank you for your attention! Dr. Jürgen Pfister Chief Economist and Head of Research Phone: +49 (0)89.2171.21750 Email: juergen.pfister@bayernlb.de