This is the keynotes of Dr. Marcus Mietzner's lecture at The Bosphorus University, December 18th, 2012 in Istanbul

1. Indonesia's Democratization after
Suharto: Successes and Failures
Marcus Mietzner
Australian National University
Boğaziçi University, Asian Studies Center
Istanbul, 18 December 2012

2. Structure of Presentation
1. Overview of Indonesia’s
Democratization Trajectory
2. Successes: Electoral Reforms,
Military Reform, Institutional
Strengthening, Decline of
Communal Violence, Economic
Stability
3. Failures: Corruption,
Dysfunctional Party Financing
System, Erosion of Religious
Tolerance, Stagnation
4. Conclusions

3. Overview of Democratization Trajectory
Suharto resigned in May 1998
after 32 years of military-
backed rule
Handed over power to VP B.J.
Habibie
Habibie quickly reformed
political system, promising
elections for mid-1999
Political prisoners freed, free
press established
But he did not view himself as
a transitional president -
instead, he worked towards
his re-election

4. Overview of Democratization Trajectory
Habibie failed in his bid for re-
election
Abdurrahman Wahid was
elected president in October
1999 through the People’s
Consultative Assembly
Erratic, chaotic presidency
ensued
Parliament almost immediately
turned against him
Political system paralyzed
between early 2000 and mid-
2001

6. Overview of Democratization Trajectory
Wahid was impeached in
July 2001
Under his successor,
Megawati Sukarnoputri,
fundamental reforms were
brought on the way
Constitutional amendments
passed in 2002
But Megawati seen as
aloof, indifferent and elitist
Lost 2004 direct
presidential elections to
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

7. Overview of Democratization Trajectory
Yudhoyono benefited from many
of the reforms put in place before
he took office
Democratic consolidation began
with his election
Initially, he seemed to live up to
his reformist promises
His single most important
achievement: settling the Aceh
dispute peacefully in 2005
Won landslide re-election based
on high likeability factor and
generous cash hand-outs to the
poor
But now seen as gentle but
indecisive lame duck president;
reform process has stalled

8. Successes: Electoral Reform
Indonesia now the most
democratic state in Southeast
Asia
One of the reasons: it has one
of the most open and
competitive electoral systems
in the world
President, governors, mayors,
district heads, village heads all
directly elected (since 2004)
Parliamentary elections moved
from a closed party list system
to an open one between 1999
and 2009
High incumbency turnover rate

9. Successes: Military Reform
Military remained influential
throughout the transition
But its power declined
drastically after 2004 -
especially after the Aceh
peace accord
Main reason: intra-civilian
consensus on pillars of
political reform - military
sidelined as a result
Military had to surrender
internal security function to
police (separatism,
communal violence,
terrorism)

10. Successes: Institutional Strengthening
Most of Indonesia’s
institutional innovations
proved effective
Constitutional Court
established in 2003, creating
an effective, independent and
reformist arbitrator of
political conflict
Anti-corruption Commission
also created in 2003, which
quickly gained public trust
through high-profile arrests
Executive-legislative relations
turned from being hostile in
the early 2000s to complex
but polite in the early 2010s

11. Successes: Decline of Communal Violence
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12. Successes: Economic Stability

13. Successes: Economic Stability

14. Successes: Economic Stability

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16. Failures: Corruption
Despite high-level arrests by
the KPK (ACC), corruption
remains rampant
In the TI Corruption Perception
Index 2012, Indonesia ranked
118th (2011: 100th; 2010:
110th)
Patronage remains all-
pervasive in politics and
society
Corruption makes legal sector
weak and an instrument of the
rich

17. Failures: Dysfunctional Party Financing
System
One of the reasons for the
continued corruption is the
dysfunctional party financing
system
Indonesia cut state subsidies
for parties by 90% in 2005
All Indonesian parties get
together around US$ 1 million
a year, allowing them to cover
far less than 1 % of their
expenses
Result: parties squeeze their
legislators and executive
representatives for funds
They, in turn, recoup the funds
through corruption and
lobbyism

18. Failures: Erosion of Religious Tolerance
Democracy has opened the
door for the expansion of
radical Islamist groups
These groups have agitated
against Christians, Ahmadis,
Shias, atheists and other
minorities
Government reluctant to take
action because it does not
want to be seen as un-Islamic
Erosion of minority rights
particularly pronounced under
Yudhoyono
Rise of moralist conservatism

19. Failures: Stagnation
No significant reforms since
2004
Yudhoyono has administered
the country’s stability, but
has launched no new
initiatives for change
Indeed, some conservative
elites have tried to roll back
reforms (electoral rights,
ACC)
Economically, wages have
remained stagnant, informal
labour rates high and near-
poverty widespread
Wealth concentration
increases while ordinary
Indonesians get few benefits
from the strong GDP growth

20. Conclusions
Indonesia has recorded remarkable achievements in its
democratization process
It has avoided a fresh military take-over, territorial disintegration
and another economic collapse
The political institutions are functional, and economic growth
respectable
But the country has stopped in the mid-2000s to pursue further
institutional reforms
Most importantly, it has not managed to establish a workable party
financing system
As a result, corruption remains endemic, the influence of oligarchs
on politics is increasing, and the reputation of party politics is
declining
If this situation continues unabated, and no further reforms are
being launched, the public could become disillusioned with
democracy, and calls for a neo-authoritarian solution could emerge
Thus, the 2014 elections will be crucial in deciding Indonesia’s
democratic future