Inauguration hoehne 1 sept 2016

Prof.dr Niklas Höhne
Inaugural lecture upon taking up the position of Special Professor of
Mitigation of greenhouse gases at Wageningen University
on 1 September 2016
Limiting climate
change to well
below 2°C or 1.5°C
Invitation
International effo
r
ts and opt ions
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne
Inaugural lecture upon taking up the position as Special
Professor of mitigation of greenhouse gases at Wageningen
University on 1 September 2016
Niklas.Hoehne@wur.nl
N.Hoehne@newclimate.org

Greenhouse gas emissions need to be
reduced to limit global temperature increase
See also: Joeri Rogelj, Julia Nabel, Claudine Chen, William Hare, Kathleen Markmann, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Kirsten
Macey, Niklas Höhne 2010: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature, Vol 464, p. 1126-1128

Delay means earlier phase out
With delay:
Earlier phase out
Negative emissions

Global
1,5/2°C: Limit temperature increase to „well below 2°C“ and “pursue efforts” to limit it below 1.5°C
Phase out of greenhouse gas emissions: Global greenhouse gas emissions should reach net
zero in the second half of the century
National
National contributions: All countries submit national contributions on how much to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions (INDCs)
Raising ambition: Contributions will be revised, renewed and extended until longterm goal is met
Paris Agreement is a landmark

How could an international agreement on climate change
help?
What are national governments doing?
What are other actors doing?
What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within reach?
Content

help?
• Allocation of emission allowances to countries
Content

How to share the reduction effort?
Joeri Rogelj, Julia Nabel, Claudine Chen, William Hare, Kathleen Markmann, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel
Schaeffer, Kirsten Macey, Niklas Höhne 2010: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature Vol 464, p.
1126-1128

Determining future GHG emission
reduction targets
Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort
sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

Research report of 2005
Höhne, N., Phylipsen, D., Ullrich, S., Blok, K., 2005. Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Prepared by Ecofys for
the German Federal Environmental Agency, Climate Change 02/05. http://www.umweltbundesamt.org/fpdf-l/2847.pdf
Also used in
Höhne, N., 2005. What is next after the Kyoto Protocol? Assessment of options for international climate policy post 2012. PhD thesis,
University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. ISBN 90-739-5893-8, Revised version published in 2006 at Techne Press, Amsterdam as
ISBN 90-8594-005-2, http://www.technepress.nl/publications.php?id=13

Necessary reductions presented in IPCC
report 2007 influenced national target setting
Table explained in
• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2008. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for
meeting concentration stabilisation targets. An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 91, 249–274.
• den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate Policy, 10, 247–
260.
EU: -80% to -95%
Germany: -80% to -95%
USA: -80%
Japan: -25% (repealed)
Norway: -40% (conditional)
NL: court case

Dutch court ruling of June 2015
Source:
http://uitspraken.rechtspraak.nl/inziendo
cument?id=ECLI:NL:RBDHA:2015:7196

Suggested targets in 2030 compatible
with 2°C
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.28. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG
reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.

Suggested targets in 2050
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.29. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG
reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
-80% to -95% for 2°C
-90% to -100% for 1.5°C

2020: 17% below 2005
2025: 26% to 28% below 2005
USA
See also: Roelfsema, M., Elzen, M. D., Höhne, N., Hof, A. F., Braun, N., Fekete, H., ... & Larkin, J. (2013). Are major economies on
track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies. Energy Policy.

20% below 1990 in 2020
30% below 1990 in 2020 with ambitious international treaty
At least 40% below 1990 in 2030
EU

2020: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005, 15% non-fossil energy, afforestation
2030: target to peak CO2 emissions in 2030 at the latest, CO2/GDP by 60% to 65%
below 2005, 20% non-fossil energy, afforestation
China
See also: den Elzen, M., Fekete, H., Höhne, N., Admiraal, A., Forsell, N., Hof, A. F., … van Soest, H. (2016). Greenhouse gas emissions
from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030? Energy Policy, 89, 224–236.
http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030

Effect of “Intended nationally
determined contributions” (INDCs)
Source: Climate Action Tracker update, 8 December 2015
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html
Summ
Contrib
185 cou
INDCs
implem
around
a likely
result
INDCs
fully im
warmin
discuss
global
only 0.4% of global emissions,
global emissions as “medium,”
Conditional elements of INDCs
1.5 and 2°Cby roughly 2.8 GtCO
Taking into consideration the
more ambitious (4.6-7.8 GtCO2
benefits. For limiting warming
be closed by 20-34%.
Cancelling all announced and p
gap—the gap between current
The Paris Agreement can raise
long-term operationalization
regular reviews of action that l

Effect of “intended nationally
determined contributions“ (INDCs)
Source: Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete, Harald Winkler, Roberto Schaeffer,
Fu Sha, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen 2016: Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well
below 2 C, Nature 534, 631–639

Source: Dubash, N. K.,
Hagemann, M., Höhne,
N., & Upadhyaya, P.
(2013). Developments in
national climate change
mitigation legislation and
strategy. Climate Policy,
13(6), 649-664
2/3 of emissions covered by national
climate policy
Further developed in
• Bulder, K.J., 2013. Climate
Policies in the Top 50
Greenhouse Gas Emitting
Countries. Policy Drivers and
the Climate Policy
Development Index. Master
thesis, Wageningen.
Climate legislation
Climate strategy
None of the above
No data

Policy database and initial analysis report
Coverage of climate policy varies
www.climatepolicydatabase.org http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/
good-practice-policies/
Supported by the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment
• G. Iacobuta 2016: Good
practice policies for
climate change
mitigation, master thesis,
Wageningen.
• Ongoing PhD of G.
Iacobuta through CD-
links project led by IIASA

How many countries apply good practice
policies?
Coverage of policy areas by the 30 largest emitters
Source: http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies
Summary
This study compared recommendations for good practice climate change mitigation policies from various
institutions with the current status of application of these policies by countries. In an initial attempt, a broad set of
climate mitigation-related policies covering all sectors were analysed for the 30 major emitting countries that
comprise 82% of global GHG emissions.
Table S1: Good practice policy matrix and coverage by analysed countries (percentage indicates the share of
the 30 countries that have a policy in the respective areas)
Changing activity Energy efficiency Renewables
Nuclear, CCS or fuel
switch
Non-energy
General
Climate strategy (67%)
GHG reduction target (73%)
Coordinating body for climate strategy 57%)
Support for low-emission RD&D (47%)
National energy efficiency
target (43%)
Renewable energy target
(40%)
Electricityandheat
Support for highly efficiency
power plants (70%)
Renewable energy target
for electricity sector (57%)
CCS support scheme
(20%)
Reduction obligation schemes
(7%)
Support scheme for
renewables (83%)
Grid infrastructure
development (67%)
Sustainability standards for
biomass use
Overarching carbon pricing scheme or emissions limit (27%)
Energy and other taxes (20%) (not comprehensively addressed)
No fossil fuel subsidies (30%)
Strategy for material
efficiency (23%)
Support for energy efficiency in
industrial production (47%)
Support schemes for
renewables (33%)
CCS support scheme
(27%)
Landfill methane
reduction (17%)
Energy reporting and audits
(47%)
Sustainability standards
for biomass use (7%)
Incentives to reduce
CH4 from oil and gas
production (20%)
Minimum energy performance
and equipment standards
(47%)
N2O from industrial
processes (17%)
fluorinated gases (10%)

Policy coverage
in Japan
Example of policy coverage
35
5.12 Japan
Climate policies in Japan show a balanced coverage of all sectors, with the exception of agriculture. One noteworthy
example from the buildings sector is the Low-carbon City Promotion Act (Eco-city Law, 2014), providing codes and
standards, as well as fiscal/financial incentives for low-carbon choices. The absence of fossil fuel subsidies, the
implementation of carbon and (decades-long) energy taxes and the implementation of a feed-in tariff scheme for
renewable electricity are the most important aspect of Japan’s climate action. Future climate mitigation measures in
Japan could consider policy areas with a limited number of implemented policies, such as the support schemes for
renewable energy use in non-electricity sectors.
Table 15 Coverage of the good practice policy menu in Japan
Source:
http://www.climatepolicydatabase.org
http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies

Close to 2°C, if all countries would do
what many do already
Source: Fekete, Roelfsema, Höhne, den Elzen, Forsell, Becerra 2015: Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global
greenhouse gas emissions, https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/task2c_goodpracticeanalysis_july_2015.pdf
Figure 1. Global greenhouse gas emissions under current policies scenario and implementation of
good practice policies in all countries excl. LULUCF and only LULUCF. Note: emissions in 2010 are
48.8 GtCO2e, and thus slightly lower than other sources (e.g. (UNEP, 2014)).
Figure 2: Reductions below the implemented policies for each of the nine policy areas covered, based
on two methods from NewClimate Institute and PBL. Source: Authors
All the results above are based on the assumption that the good practice policies can be technically
implemented on a global level. We have not considered country specific circumstances beyond energy
and emission data, and sometimes projections of activities. In our calculations, we did not take into
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NewClimateInstitute PBL
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GtCO2e/a
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Promotion of electric vehicles
Efficiency standards for light duty vehicles
Efficiency standards for the building
envelope
Reduction of f-gases
Promotion of energy efficiency in industry
Targets for methane reduction from oil and
gas production
Reducing electricity demand from industry
and buildings
Support for renewable electricity
Current policies (excl. LULUCF)
Reductions if all countries would apply best practice policies in selected areas

Commitments by actors other than
national governments are increasing
Source: Hsu et al. 2016,
http://www.nature.com/news/tr
ack-climate-pledges-of-cities-
and-companies-1.19764

Business determined contributions
Source: Hö̈ hne, Kuramochi, Sterl, Gonzales-Zuñiga 2016: the business end of climate change, https://newclimate.org/2016/06/28/the-business-end-of-climate-
change/

Impact of initiatives on global GHG emissions
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions(GtCO2e/a)
Year
CP min CP max
initiatives min initiatives max
INDC 2025 INDC 2030
SunShot Initiative
US Wind Program
SEII
EWI
GFEI
UIC
SEAD
GBPN
C40
Under 2 MOU
GCFTF
Bonn Challenge / NYD
GACC
GMI
CCAC
RE100
Caring for Climate
Power
Transport
Buildings
Cities / regions
Forestry
Non-CO2
Business
Source: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris
Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/

Impact of initiatives on global GHG
emissions
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions(GtCO2e/a)
Year
CP min CP max
INDC 2025 INDC 2030
SunShot Initiative
US Wind Program
SEII
EWI
GFEI
UIC
SEAD
GBPN
C40
Under 2 MOU
GCFTF
GACC
GMI
CCAC
RE100
Caring for Climate
Power
Transport
Buildings
Cities / regions
Forestry
Non-CO2
Business
9 GtCO2e
If the initiatives reach their goals
And if this does not replace ambition elsewhere
Source: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris
Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/

help?
What is necessary to keep the 1.5/2°C goal within
reach?
Content

Implement and overachieve national climate
proposals - build on the positive experiences with INDC
planning for the Paris Agreement, apply good practice
Support leading non-state actors and capture their
efforts in national ambition
Induce faster-than-expected transformations by new
‘transformative coalitions’: groups of countries and
stakeholders with critical mass to flip global markets by
deploying one specific technology at a large scale.
What is needed to keep “well below 2°C” and
“working towards 1.5°C” within reach?
Source: Höhne et al. (forthcoming): The Paris Agreement: resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions, Climate Policy

Small coalitions induce technological
breakthrough
nt of
it the
ges
s
ion
way,
and
ant
es
s
on
s
at
on
nario
ch
Figure 2 (IEA 2006c, 2007, 2008b, 2009, 2010b, 2011,
2012b, 2013, 2014c, 2015d).
Figure 1 —WEO Projections of Globally Installed
Solar Capacity in Gigawatts
Note: 2006–2009 data reﬂect the reference scenario; 2010–2015 data
reﬂect the Current Policies Scenario.
Figure 2 —WEO Projections of Globally Installed
Wind Capacity in Gigawatts
Source: Cronin, C., Menon, S., Monteith, S., Plechaty, D., Hagemann, M., Höhne,
N., … Sferra, F. (2015). Faster and Cleaner - Decarbonisation in the power and
transport sectors is surpassing predictions and offering hope for limiting warming
to 2°C. https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/faster-cleaner-
decarbonization-in-the-power-transport-sectors.pdf
Example: wind and solar electricity Example: electric cars
• Norway: today 20% of new
registrations are electric cars
• Norway and Netherlands:
goal of 100% of new
registrations are electric by
2025
• China and USA: significant
support for electric vehicles
• Needed for 1.5°C: last
gasoline/diesel car sold in
2025 to 2035
Source: Sterl et al. 2016: The road ahead: How do we move to cleaner
car fleets? CAT Decarbonisation Series, www.climateactiontracker.org

help?
• Allocation of emission allowances to countries
• Countries’ international contributions are not yet sufficient to keep
temperature increase below 2°C
• Close to 2°C if all countries would do what many do already
• Actions by other actors are increasingly relevant
• Size of their contribution is under-researched
• Implement and overachieve national climate proposals
• Support leading non-state actors and capture their efforts in national
ambition
• Induce faster-than-expected transformations by new ‘transformative
coalitions’
Limiting climate change to well below
2°C or 1.5°C
Louise Jeffery,
Marcia R
Summary
As of 8
Contributions (IN
185 countries an
The CAT
INDCs are fully
implemented af
around 2.7°C by
a likely chance o
Compar
result from curr
INDCs lower wa
fully implement
Both cu
warming that
discussion in Par
Of the 3
global emission
only 0.4% of global emissions, i.e. 17 ar
global emissions as “medium,” and 15, c
Conditional elements of INDCs would le
1.5 and 2°Cby roughly 2.8 GtCO2e (12-1
Taking into consideration the co-bene
more ambitious (4.6-7.8 GtCO2e, or 24-4
benefits. For limiting warming to 1.5°C,
be closed by 20-34%.
Cancelling all announced and pre-perm
gap—the gap between current policy pr
The Paris Agreement can raise efforts b
long-term operationalization in terms
regular reviews of action that lead to ac
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emissions(GtCO2e/a)
Year
CP min CP max
INDC 2025 INDC 2030
2-degree consistent (median) 2-degree consistent (upper bound)
2-degree consistent (lower bound)
SunShot Initiative
US Wind Program
SEII
EWI
GFEI
UIC
SEAD
GBPN
C40
Under 2 MOU
GCFTF
GACC
GMI
CCAC
RE100
Caring for Climate
Power
Transport
Buildings
Cities / region
Forestry
Non-CO2
Business

Inauguration hoehne 1 sept 2016

Inauguration hoehne 1 sept 2016

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