- The document provides information on COVID-19 vaccines currently in clinical trials, with the earliest completion date being September 2021. After phase II trials establish safety, some vaccines may receive emergency approval for frontline workers. - It also includes summaries of GDP growth forecasts from the World Bank, showing a projected global economic contraction of 5.2% in 2020 before a modest recovery in 2021. Advanced economies are expected to contract more severely and take longer to recover pre-pandemic levels. - The Thai economy is forecast to contract 10% in 2020, with exports, tourism, and consumption only beginning to recover once the pandemic ends, not reaching pre-COVID levels until 2023. Various industries are negatively and positively impacted.

1. KIRIDA
BHAOPICHITR
15 July 2020
&

2. 2
• Earliest planned completion date for COVID-19 is September 2021.
• After successful phase II, once safety has been established, vaccines could be granted emergency
use, e.g. for frontline health workers.
Source: Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and New York Times
Type: Genetic Vaccines
PROGRESS
Phase I/II – Aug 2021
PROGRESS
Phase I – Nov 2021
Phase II – Apr 2021
Type: Genetic Vaccines
Phase I – May 2021
Type: Genetic Vaccines
PROGRESS
Phase I – July 2020
Type: Genetic Vaccines
PROGRESS
Phase I/II – Sep 2020
Type: Inactivated Virus
PROGRESS
Phase I/II – Nov 2021
Type: Inactivated Virus
PROGRESS
SINOPHARM
Phase I/II – Oct 2020
Type: Inactivated Virus
PROGRESS
PROGRESS
Phase I – Jun 2021
Phase II/III – Sep 2021
Type: Virus Vector
PROGRESS
Phase I – Jan 2021
Phase II – Feb 2021
Type: Virus Vector
Phase I/II – Jan 2021
Type: Protein Based
PROGRESS
Phase I – Nov 2020
Type: Protein Based
PROGRESS
Vaccines currently undergoing clinical trials

3. 3
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
USA
WORLD
-7.0%1.6%
2019
Growth in 2020
(1.4%)
2021
3.9%
(1.5%)
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
EMERGING MARKET AND
DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
-5.2%2.4%
(2.5%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
4.2%
(2.6%)
EURO AREA
RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST
AND NORTH AFRICA
CHINA JAPAN
INDIA
-6.1%2.3%
(1.8%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
4.0%
(1.7%)
EAST ASIA
AND PACIFIC
(excluding china)
-2.5%3.5%
2019
Growth in 2020
(4.1%)
2021
4.6%
(4.3%)
-7.2%0.8%
(1.8%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
2.8%
(2.4%)
-9.1%1.2%
(1.0%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
4.5%
(1.3%)
-6.0%1.3%
(1.6%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
2.7%
(1.8%)
-4.2%-0.2%
(2.4%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
2.3%
(2.7%)
1.0%6.1%
(5.9%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
6.9%
(5.8%) -6.1%0.7%
(0.7%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
2.5%
(0.6%)
-1.2%4.8%
(4.9%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
5.4%
(5.0%)
-3.2%4.2%
(5.8%)
2019
Growth in 2020 2021
3.1%
(6.1%)
• World Bank projects the global economy to contract by 5.2% in 2020, much worse than during
the 2008-09 global financial crisis, as advanced economies in the West contract by 7%.
• Global economy will grow slowly next year, reaching pre-COVID levels only in late 2022 at
the earliest, and grow modestly thereafter; advanced economies, however, will not recover to
pre-COVID levels until 2023 at the earliest.
Source: Global Economic Prospects (June 2020), World Bank and TDRI calculation
Note: shows increase/decrease compared to previous year; Number in bracket is forecast in January 2020; Size of circle is the size of economy
GDP Growth Forecasts by World Bank

4. 4
• Thai economy could contract by 10% this year and will not reach pre-COVID levels until 2023
as exports, tourism and domestic consumption will only start to pick up once the COVID-19
pandemic ends.
76
76.5
77
77.5
78
78.5
79
79.5
80
12
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13
13.2
13.4
13.6
Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19
Household debt % of GDP (right axis)
Trillionbaht
Household debt
Source: Bank of Thailand
• Post-COVID, exports will be affected by lower
global purchasing power and higher trade
barriers; tourism will recover to pre-COVID
levels only in 2023 when the pandemic is
behind and international movements of
people fully resume.
• With rising household debt burden and fall in
incomes and savings, household
consumption recover to pre-COVID level
0.5-1 year after the pandemic is over.
• Rising NPLs and excess capacity will lead to
a slump in private investment and delay
adoption of automation until 2022.

5. 5
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON BUSINESS POSITIVE IMPACT
ON BUSINESS
• Hotels
• Shopping malls
• Retail shops • E-commerce (Food,
online Marketplace, etc.)
• Delivery services &
packaging
• E-services (education,
banking, movies, etc.)
• Digital services
• Telecom services
• Medical supplies (face
mask, alcohol,
medicines vitamins,etc.)
• Food
• Insurance
• Airlines
• Wellness, Spa
• Hair salons, Barber
shops
• Pubs & bars
• Automobile and parts
• Garments
• Restaurants
• Construction • Electronics
• Entertainment
venue/services
• Booking agency
• Tour companies
• Public transportation
• Gas station
• Property
• Electricity, gas
• Healthcare services
• Education
• Professional services
LOWMODERATEHIGH
Source: BOT, Bangkokbiznews, Thansettakij, marketingoops, Phatra, SET, TRIS, TDRI analysis
>1Million
employees
100,00–1Million
employees
<100,000
employees
IMPACTONEMPLOYMENT

6. 6
Source: BOT, Labor Force Survey Q3:2019 with TDRI calculation
Note: Low impact occupation include State employees, heath care workers, chemists, physicists, computer programmers, telecom workers and
high-skilled workers
• Jobs of 9.7 million people are severely affected by the lockdown from Covid-19 outbreak, with
the largest group being retailers followed by cooks & waiters, hair dressers, tour guides and taxi,
van and motorcycle drivers.
11.8
3.9
5.1
1.6
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.01
Low impact occupation*
Agriculturists
High-skill Technicians, tailors
Retailers
Cooks, waiters, hair dressers, tour guides
Taxi, van & motorcycle drivers
Low-skill workers
Street vendors
Hotel or restaurant managers
General hired workers
Assistant cook
Head chefs, museumand art center directors
Tourism operators and hotel staff
Singers
General customer service
Controllers, technicians on ships & airplanes and pilots
Employed persons impact from COVID-19 by occupation (Million persons)
Moderate impact
15.6million persons
High impact
9.7million persons
Low impact
12.1million persons

7. 7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Total Fruits Fowl Sugarcane Swine Rubber Paddy
Price Production Farm income
&
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics with TDRI calculation
YoY Growth of Farm income by Crops (2020)
Percent
Source: World Bank
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rice Sugar Rubber (Right Axis)
ThousandUSD/metricton
ThousandUSD/metricton
Global agriculture prices
Mar
• Farm incomes from rice may rise yoy this
year, while those from rubber and
sugarcane falls as
• Production of rice falls by 6-7% and
sugarcane by 40% from severe drought
in 2020H1, while rubber production falls
as farmers were unable to tap rubber
during the curfew.
• Rice prices will rise by around 10% this
year, while rubber and sugar price falls
with lower crude oil price and global
demand.
• Incomes of agriculture households have
also fallen as their 65% of their incomes
are from non-farm activities &
remittances from non-farm family
members.

8. 8
6.8 7.0
8.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2018
(41.88%)
2019
(41.19%)
2020F
(58%)
Public debt
(Fiscal year)
Trillionbaht
(% of GDP)
Source: Public Debt Management Office with TDRI calculation
• Public Debt Management Office projects public debt to GDP to reach no more than 58% this fiscal
year (includes Bt0.6 trn out of the Bt1 trillion borrowing bill, which will borrowed this fiscal year).
• The Government has so far provide cash
transfers of almost Bt350 billion to almost 30
million individuals.
• There is room for further government
borrowing of up to 60-65% of GDP or another
Bt 0.8-1.5 trillion, if needed.
• But if the economic slow down extends
beyond 2022, there will be little room left for
additional fiscal stimulus.
• It is therefore important how the funds are
used to support the vulnerable, stimulate
demand and prepare for the post-Covid world.

9. 9
• Health consciousness will shift pattern of tourism
• from mass tourism to FIT and mainly domestic tourists
• from large hotels to boutique hotels
• from long distance to shorter travel distance as long-
distance flights are few and more expensive.
• Air travel cost will be higher as there are fewer
flights and aviation rules require physical
distancing in long flights.
• Air Asia, for example, may increase prices by 10-15%
to break even.
• Many M&As in hotel and airline businesses are
expected.
• Pre-COVID patterns of tourism will return.
• There will be opportunities in medical tourism and
health & wellness as Thailand has strengthened its
reputation from handling the pandemic e.g. Dusit
Thani has partnered with a hospital to start a
wellness facility in Hua Hin.
• Regional tourism will increase as international
tourists, especially from China, will reduced their
travel budgets; Chinese tourists will prefer to travel
to countries that do not have an anti-Chinese
sentiment.
• AR/VR in tourism will not happen.
TRANSITION PERIOD POST-COVID
• Domestic tourism will start recovering in
Q3/2020 with FIT, seminars, conferences,
and leisure travel; it will not fully recover
to pre-COVID level until 2022.
• Government’s domestic tourism stimulus
packages of Bt22.4 billion from July to
October 2020 will also help.
• International tourism will start to
slowly recover end-2020 with focus
on selected business and medical
travelers.
• Foreign tourists who are vaccinated
can start to come in 2022.
• Full recovery will not be until 2023
Foreign tourismDomestic tourism

10. 10
• As economies shrink, nations are
compelled to support domestic producers
by using trade protectionism policies,
which will hurt the global economy.
• Global trade is expected to be significantly
lower than its pre-COVID-19 level due to
weak demand & protectionism
as witnessed after
the global financial crisis of 2009 (GFC);
shortened supply chains will also reduce
global trade post-COVID.
• Linkage between global trade growth and
economic growth will be weaker; Thai
export growth will unlikely reach 5%
post-COVID.
World merchandise trade volume
Source: WTO
Index,2015=100
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Merchandise trade
Pessimistic scenario
Optimistic scenario
Trend 1990-2008
Trend 2011-2018

11. 11

12. 12
4.5
0.9
2.7 2.8 15.6 22.6
Millions
of people
Additional people driven into extreme poverty
during COVID-19 pandemic
• COVID-19 pushed millions into extreme poverty
especially in most affected areas (South Asia &
Sub-Saharan Africa)
• Implications: Reduced purchasing power
• Leaders will prioritize domestic over global issues,
leading to nationalism & protectionism.
• Tariff rates likely hiked as in previous crises
• Major powers act unilaterally, while
international organizations (e.g. WTO. WHO,
UN) lose influence.
• Implications: Shorter supply chains, regionalization,
and “G-zero” world.
Percent
Source: Barry Eichengreen and Douglas A. Irwin (2009), “The Great Depression
and the Protectionist Temptation: Who Succumbed and Why?” and World Bank
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
USA
UK
Germany
France
Japan
Average Tariff Rate (%) of Major Industrialized Countries
Pre-depression (1928)
Post-depression (1935)
Source: Lakner et al (2020), PovcalNet, World Bank Global Economic 2020 Prospects,
Latin America & CaribbeanEast Asia & Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub Saharan Africa
POVERTY REDUCTION GLOBALIZATION
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
USA
UK
Germany
France
Japan
Percent
Pre-COVID-19 (2018)
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
COVID-19 added millions into extreme poverty globally
June downside
projection
June baseline
projection
Pre-COVID-19
projection
Millionsofpeopleinextremepoverty

13. 13
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
INCREASING INEQUALITY RISING POLITICAL TENSION
DEEPENING AGING SOCIETY
President Trump Job
Disapproval
Source: RCP
• Informal workers tend to lose more wealth
because of inaccessibility to government support.
• Poor households are less likely to work from
home, so they benefit less from efficiency gains.
• Low skill workers will have difficulty finding jobs
• Implication: Lower purchasing power
• COVID-induced inequality
create political instability and
potential chaos.
• Implications: rise of populist
government worldwide and
reversed globalization.
• Birthrate will decline as it normally does in economic
downturns.
• Implications: Lower demand for child-related
businesses and more opportunities for grey economyMillionperson
1997
-1 0 1
Ability to Work from home (WFH)
> 30,000
16,001 – 30,000
12,001 – 16,000
9,001 – 12,000
6,001 – 9,000
≤ 6,000
Income (baht)
Source: PIER from LFS2019Q3
unable to WFH can fully WFH
54
52
50
48
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1,000 cases
New-borns in Thailand, 1994-2000
Source:
NSO, 2019

14. 14
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
Source: eMarketer, May 2020
Source: Nasdaq, NYSE
$523.6
$601.7
$709.8 $765.2
$859.3
13.6% 14.9%
18.0%
14.4% 15.5%
9.9% 11.0%
14.5%
7.8%
12.3%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Percent
• E-commerce, related businesses and on-demand
entertainment will keep growing after big jump
during COVID-19.
Retail Ecommerce Sales in USA
Retail Ecommerce
sales (billion)
% Change
% of total retail
sales
Netflix
AMC
Netflix & Cinema (AMC) Stock Performance
From-home economy will drop from current level but
will continue as it saves money and helps attract
employees, and related infrastructure has already
been invested. As a result, there will be
• demand for technology enablers (5G, platform,
cloud service, electronic device) and employment
of IT workers.
• some shifts to suburban homes for WFH workers.
• COVID-19 has migrated patients to telemedicine
• US expected 1billion online doctor visits in 2020 and
expanded Medicare to cover online doctor visits.
• Ping An Good Doctor’s users grew 900% (Dec 2019
to Jan 2020) and is eyeing on ASEAN market
• Doctor Raksa, partnered with Bamrungrad, saw its
registered online users increased from 300K to 400K
in April 2020 alone.
• ASEAN has potential for telemedicine due to low
access to medical services.
ONLINE COMMERCE/SERVICE FROM-HOME ECONOMY
TELEMEDICINE

15. 15
Slower move towards automation in developing
countries due to
• Slowdown in demand
• Stagnant labor wages
• Excess production capacity
Profits will be prioritized over the environment,
especially in developing countries.
• As e-commerce grows, large
amount of waste from delivery is
created.
• Plastic waste from food delivery in
Thailand is predicted to doubled
during COVID-19; one-time food
delivery produces 7 pieces of
waste.
• Post-COVID, demand new plastic
containers may rise as their prices
remain low with low oil price.
Pre-
COVID
During
COVID
140M
280M
Source: TDRI, 2020
CIRCULAR ECONOMY RENEWABLE ENERGY
SHARING ECONOMY
• Fear of infection will be only temporary.
• Post-COVID, budget constraints will increase
demand for cheap sharing services.
AUTOMATION
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Thailand: Capacity utilization rate (Seasonally adjusted)
Cap U
Motor vehicles
Computer &
Electronic Products
Electrical equipment
Rubber & Plastic
Products
Percent
Source: Office of Industrial
Economics.
Plastic waste from
food delivery
Renewable energy becomes less attractive in
developing countries due to
• Less subsidies due to public debt
• Less competitive as prices for oil, gas, & coal drops

16. 16