This document presents the provisional GDP estimates for Bangladesh for the fiscal years 2018-19 and the final estimates for 2019-20, indicating a growth of 5.24% despite global economic contractions. Key sectors contributing to the GDP include agriculture and manufacturing, with detailed sectoral performances provided. The implications of COVID-19 on the economy are discussed, with a consensus among economists that the published growth figures may overestimate actual economic health.

1. Divis
Report on:
Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY 2018-19 and Final
Estimates of GDP For FY 2019-20.
Submitted To:
Dr. Santos Kumar Deb
Associate Professor
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management
Faculty of Business Studies
University of Dhaka
Submitted By:
Group: Tourism Concord
MBA Batch: 11th
Section: B
Date of Submission: 10 September, 2020

2. Group Profile
Serial No Name Id
1. Md. Mamun Hasan 850
2. Md. Zahidul Islam 858
3. Mohammad Towhidul Alam 1065
4. Shipon Baraik 120(BBA)

3. Letter of Transmittal
10 September, 2020
Dr. Santus Kumar deb
Associate Professor
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management
Faculty of Business Studies
University of Dhaka.
Subject: Submission of the report.
Dear Sir,
It is my great pleasure to submit the report title “Provisional Estimates of GDP, 2018-
19 and Final Estimates of GDP, 2019-20”. Throughout the study we have tried our
level best to accommodate as much information and relevant issues as possible and
tried to follow the instruction as you have suggested. We sincerely believe that it will
satisfy your requirements.
We shall remain deeply grateful if you kindly take some period to go through the report
and evaluate our performance.
Thank you for your cooperation.
Sincerely,
......................
Md. Zahidul Islam
Team Leader
On behalf of “Group Tourism Concord”
MBA 11th
Batch, Section: B
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management,
University of Dhaka.

4. Acronym
BBS : Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
BFDC : Bangladesh Fisheries Development Corporation
BFIDC : Bangladesh Forest Industries Development Corporation
BMPI : Building Materials Price Index
BOP : Balance of Payment
BSIC : Bangladesh Standard Industrial Classification
CFC : Consumption of Fixed Capital
C&F : Clearing and Forwarding
CPI : Consumer Price Index
CSPS : Community Social and Personal Services
DAM : Department of Agricultural Marketing
FY : Fiscal Year
FISIM : Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured
GCF : Gross Capital Formation
GDP : Gross Domestic Product
GFCF : Gross Fixed Capital Formation
GNI : Gross National Income
GO : Gross Output
GVA : Gross Value Added
HIES : Household Income and Expenditure Survey
IC : Intermediate Consumption
ISIC : International Standard Industrial Classification
MP : Market Price
NBR : National Board of Revenue
m.p. : Market Price
NI : National Income
NPISHS : Non-Profit Institutions Serving Household Sector
OS : Operating Surplus
PPI : Producer Price Index
QIIP : Quantum Index of Industrial Production
SID : Statistics and Informatics Division
SNA : System of National Accounts
UVI : Unit Value Index
VA : Value Added

5. Table of Contents
Serial No Sub Point Page
1. Executive Summary 1
2. Introduction: 2
3. Provisional Estimates of GDP in FY2018-19 3
4. Sectoral performances of the economy for
FY2018-19:
5
5. Key Indicators of National Accounts 19
6. Final Estimates of GDP for Fiscal
Year 2019-20:
21
7. Sectoral performances of the economy for
FY2018-19:
23
8. Bangladesh - Economic Indicators 25
9. Bangladesh - Economic Forecasts - 2020-
2022 Outlook
26
10. Conclusion 27
11. References 38

6. Executive Summary
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh GDP grew by 5.24 per cent
during 2019-20 raising the per capita income by US$155 to US$2,064. This growth rate has been
achieved when the global economy is contracting, in particular the whole developed world where
according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major economies
are expected to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. The World Bank GDP projection for 2020 predicts a
fall by 2.5 per cent for developing countries and 1.8 per cent for developed countries. Even the
neighboring country India recorded a contraction of the economy by 23.9 per cent during the April-
June quarter of 2020.
This growth rate is also much above the economic growth forecast provided for Bangladesh by the
World Bank (WB) at 1.6 percent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 3.8 percent and Asian
Development Bank (ADB) at 4.5 percent for 2020. While these forecast figures are for the calendar
year 2020, but the BBS growth figure is for the 2019-20 financial year. In fact, the Bangladesh
government believes that the economy is on track to achieve 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2020-21 and
also expects the economy to rebound at a higher pace than before after the pandemic is over (FE,
August, 28). There is an implicit message that the economy is not only trekking back to pre-pandemic
levels but also will surpass that.
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic created highly uncertain circumstances for households,
businesses and governments around the world including Bangladesh. While cost of the shutdown
could be substantial, the cost of not shutting down the economy would have been even higher. This
situation will continue until an effective vaccine or treatment becomes available. People in
Bangladesh, like elsewhere are in an unprecedented situation where the economy is struggling to
recover from shutdowns and partial shutdowns. In such circumstances people are struggling to make
sense of the published data, which often has a substantial lag.
Bangladesh reported the first cases of Covid-19 in the early March and in response to widespread
concern regarding the intensity and duration of the pandemic, the economy was initially shut down
from the mid -March to the end of May. Thereafter some partial openings to complete shutdowns in a
localized fashion have continued depending on the intensity of the pandemic. But since early August
most restrictions have been lifted. Therefore, the impact of four months of economic slowdown from
March to June is reflected in this published figure assuming July, 2019 to February, 2020 economy
operated as normal and was on track with the projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the period
under consideration. But available data on macroeconomic aggregates such as household
consumption, trade and private investment do not support that the economy was tracking along the
projected growth rate path before the onset of the pandemic.
Not surprisingly it appears there is a general consensus among the economists in general and the
leading economic research institutes in particular in the country that the published growth figure is an
overestimation and unrealistic in view of the fact that the economy was already slowing down even
before the onset of the pandemic. They also questioned the methodological process used in estimating
the growth figure including its reliability. According to the BBS, the growth figure was achieved by
extrapolating actual data from July 2019 to March, 2020 for the next three months (April-June, 2020),
therefore the figure remains provisional. But one thing for sure, there will be ongoing costs to the
economy both due to the impact of shutdowns as well as the fear of pandemic preventing people to
resume normal economic activity. The combined impact will result in a significant contraction of the
economy.
1

7. Introduction:
COVID-19 has disrupted our lives, our sector and the global economy in an unprecedented way;
putting things in perspective and challenging us to think about the future. In this context experts and
environmentalists are considering how to create a sense of urgency around the climate crisis to drive
efficient and rapid action to avoid facing a similar climate and sustainability-related crisis in the
future. While Travel & Tourism’s growth is crucial to continue to support the 330 million jobs and
10.3 % of global GDP, ensuring that the sector’s growth is sustainable, contributes positively to the
communities and the ecosystems on which they depend and protects the natural and cultural heritage
core to its success, and is one of WTTC’s top priorities. In September 2019, during WTTC’s first
Climate and Environmental Action Forum, leaders agreed that the Travel & Tourism must “change
before it has to”. Climate change is not only existential but outpacing us, requiring sustained targeted
resilience and collaboration across stakeholder groups. The sector must hit net zero emissions by 2050
to limit global warming to survivable rates. The Travel & Tourism sector can and must be a force for
good when it comes to sustainability, with sustainability being at the core of all growth. Today is
about taking bold and long-lasting action beyond isolated green initiatives. Sustainability is not an
issue on which the sector should compete on, rather we are all in this together and must address
climate change, moving towards a circular or regenerative economy. As we look to the future, we
require courage and leadership; purpose and long-terms; and need to understand the power of
partnership and empathy to drive meaningful climate action.
2

8. 1 Provisional Estimates of GDP for FY2018-19 and Final
Estimates of GDP for FY2019-20
Provisional Estimates of GDP in FY2018-19
Provisional estimates of GDP for FY2018-19 indicate an expansion of the economy, with a
growth of 8.13% in real term as compared to 7.86% (final estimate) in FY2017-18. As
compared to FY2017-18, the higher GDP growth in FY2018-19 is mainly due to increase of
growth in respect of (i) Agriculture (ii) Manufacturing, (iii) Electricity, Gas and Water Supply,
(iv) Construction, (v) Wholesale and retail trade and (vi) Health and Social Works. Crops and
horticulture, a sub-sector of the agriculture sector is estimated to post a downward growth of
2.58% in FY2018-19 compared to 3.47% in FY2017-18. However, the growth of overall
manufacturing sector increased to 14.73% in FY2018-19 as against 13.40% in the previous
year.
The GDP growth rates at current and constant prices during the years from FY2005-06 to
FY2018-19 are shown in the following graph.
GDP at current market prices is provisionally estimated at Tk. 25,362 billion which is about
12.69% higher than that of FY2017-18. GDP at constant market prices is provisionally
Figure 1: GDP Growth Rate at Current and Constant Price
17.5
15.5
13.99 14.35
14.83 15.22
14.32 14.02 13.90
13.5
12.94 13.11
13.62
12.81
12.15
12.69
12.07
11.5
9.5
7.86 8.13
7.5 6.67 7.06
6.01
6.46 6.52
7.11 7.28
5.57
6.01 6.06
6.55
5.5
5.05
3.5
CurrentPrice ConstantPrice
3

9. Figure 2: Per Capita GDP, GNI at Current Price in Taka
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
GDP GNI
estimated at Tk. 11,055 billion which is 8.13% higher than that of FY2017-18 as shown in
Table 5 and Table 6.
Per Capita Income
At current prices the per capita GDP and GNI for FY2018-19 are estimated at Tk. 153,197
(US$ 1827) and Tk. 160,060 (US$ 1909) respectively. At constant prices (at 2005-06 prices)
the per capita GDP and GNI for FY2017-18 are estimated at TK. 66,778 and Tk. 69,770
respectively. The provisional estimates are based on the five to seven months actual data
available for the real sectors, government budget and the projected or trend data of the
remaining sectors and sub-sectors.
Figure 3: Per Capita GDP, GNI at Current Price in US$
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
GDP GNI
514
543
562
598
637
686
703
759
780
843
860
928
880
955
976
1,054
1,110
1,184
1,236
1,316
1,385
1,465
1,544
1,610
1,675
1,751
1827
1909
4

10. Sectoral performances of the economy for FY2018-19:
Agriculture Sector
The agriculture sector contributes about 13.31% of the total GDP. It includes three sub-sectors
namely (i) Crops and horticulture (ii) Animal farming and (iii) Forest and related services. The
overall growth rate of the broad agriculture sector for FY2018-19 is provisionally estimatedat
3.51% in real terms over FY2017-18.
Crop agriculture
Crops and Horticulture sub-sector: According to the provisional estimate, the crops and
horticulture sub-sector of the agriculture sector is likely to increase by 2.58% in real terms in
FY2018-19 over FY2017-18. This growth is due to increase in Boro, Jute, Potato and Maize
production. The production of Jute has increased from 88.94 lac bale in FY2017-18 to 100.23
lac bale in FY2018-19.
Table 1. Production of major crops
(Lac Metric Ton)
Major Crops 2013-14 2014-15 2015-
16
2016-17 2017-18 2018-
19(p)
Aus 23.26 23.28 22.88 21.34 27.09 27.57
Aman 130.23 131.90 134.8
3
136.56 139.93 140.19
Boro 190.07 191.92 189.3
7
180.14 195.75 195.65
Wheat 13.03 13.47 13.48 13.11 13.01 13.01
Total cereals 356.59 360.57 360.5
6
351.15 375.78 376.42
Maize 21.24 23.50 24.45 27.58 32.72 34.31
Potato 89.50 92.54 94.74 102.16 103.20 103.75
Jute (Lac bale) 74.36 75.01 75.58 82.46 88.94 100.23
Note: “p” denotes provisional.
• Production of Aus rice is 27.57 lac metric tons in FY2018-19 against 27.09 lacmetric
tons in the previous year, i.e. 01.77% higher.
• Aman rice production is estimated at 140.19 lac metric tons in FY2018-19 against
139.93 lac metric tons in FY2017-18.
• Boro rice production is estimated at 195.65 lac metric tons in FY2018-19 against
195.75 lac metric tons in FY2017-18.
5

11. • It assumes that the previous year’s production of Wheat will be retained (13.01 lac
metric ton) in FY2018-19.
• Production of Maize has been increased significantly over the recent past and BBS is
actively considering to adopt the same procedure for estimating its production like
other major crops. In FY2018-19, the production Maize has been estimated to 34.31
lac metric tons.
• Production of Potato has been forecasted at 103.75 lac metric tons in FY2018-19 as
compared to 103.20 lac metric tons in FY2017-18.
• Production of Jute has increased from 88.94 lac bales in FY2017-18 to 100.23 lac bales
in FY2018-19, i.e. 12.69% higher.
• Minor crops contributed about 30% to the total output of the crop sub-sector which
includes pulses, spices, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, tobacco etc. Most of the minor
crops production is yet to be finalized and hence the previous year’s production has
been taken as estimated production for FY2018-19. It may cause some changes in the
production of minor crops if the final estimation is used. It needs to mention here that
during the estimation of provisional GDP, a number of both major and minor crops
have not been harvested. Therefore, final estimate was not done. Over-all, the growth
of agriculture and forestry sector is likely to increase by 2.58% in FY2018-19 as
against 3.47% growth in the previous year.
6

12. Non-crop agriculture
Animal Farming and Forestry: The growth rate in the animal farming sub-sector is likely
to be 3.47% in FY2018-19 compared to 3.40% in FY2017-18. Gross value added in the forestry
and related services sub-sector is expected to grow by 5.58% during FY2018-19, compared to
5.51% in FY2017-18.
Fishing: Total production of inland and marine catches as estimated by the Directorate of
Fisheries (DoF) is higher in FY2018-19 than that of the previous year. The fishing sector is
likely to grow by 6.29% in FY2018-19 compared to 6.37% in FY2017-18.
Table 2. Fish production (adjusted)
(Thousand Metric Ton)
Year Inland Fish Marine Fish Total Production
2005-06 1,969 427 2,396
2006-07 2,048 446 2,494
2007-08 2,133 464 2,597
2008-09 2,218 482 2,700
2009-10 2,311 503 2,814
2010-11 2,429 566 2,995
2011-12 2,559 597 3,156
2012-13 2,723 633 3,356
2013-14 2,895 648 3,543
2014-15 3,018 684 3,702
2015-16 3,186 692 3,878
2016-17 3,353 697 4,051
2017-18 3,572 704 4,277
2018-19(p) 3,806 717 4,523
Note: “p” denotes projected estimates
7

13. Industry Sector
The broad industry sector comprises (i) mining and quarrying (ii) manufacturing (iii)
electricity, gas and water supply and (iv) construction activities. The industry sector accounts
for 35.14% of GDP at constant prices for FY2018-19. The growth rate of the broad industry
sector is provisionally estimated at 13.02% for FY2018-19 compared to 12.06% for FY2017-
18. The expected sectoral performances are likely to be as follows:
Mining and Quarrying: Data of major components of this sector, i.e. gas, coal and hard rock
are obtained from Petrobangla. Estimation of this sector has been made on the basis of three
months (July-September, FY2018-19) data. Mining and quarrying is likely to sustain its growth
at 7.39% in FY2018-19 which is higher than (7.00%) FY2017-18. Production of coal at
Barapukuria is included in the ‘Other Mining’ sub-sector. The growth rate of the ‘Other
Mining’ sub-sector is 12.02% in FY2018-19 as compared to 12.66% in the previous year.
Manufacturing: This sector comprises two sub-sectors:
i) Large and medium scale industries and
ii) Small scale industries
Provisional estimate of Quantum Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) used in computing
value added of large and medium scale industries. Growth rate of value added for large &
medium scale industries is 15.61% in FY2018-19 as compared to 14.26% in FY2017-18.
Production of both large and medium scale manufacturing industries, particularly in the case
of Garments, Knitwear, Lather and related products, Coke and refined petroleum,
Pharmaceuticals, Cement, Animal feed, Dairy products etc. shows higher growth in the first
five months of FY2018-19. However, Sugar, Beverages, Cigarette, Grain milling, Electric
equipment, Paint and varnishes, Jute textile etc. showed negative growth in the first five months
of FY2018-19 as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.
For estimating output of small scale industries Quantum Index of Industrial Production for
Small Scale Industries is used. This sub-sector contributes about 27% of the total output of
manufacturing sector. The production of this sub-sector mostly depends on indigenous raw
materials and is generally immune to external shocks. Small scale manufacturing industries
like Food manufacturing, Grain milling, Garments products, Paper products, Printing and
publishing, Metal products, Jewelries, Wooden furniture etc. show higher growth in the first
six months of current fiscal year. On the other hand, production indices of Rubber products,
8

14. Iron and steel and its products, Non-electrical machineries etc. show downward trend in the
same period. Growth rate of small-scale industries as a whole stands at 10.26% in FY2018-19
as against 9.25% in FY2017-18.
Table.3. Quantum Index of Major Industries (Large and Medium Scale Industries)
(Base: 2005-06)
July-November
Code Name of Industry 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2017-18 2018-19 (p)
Growth
rate
3 GENERAL INDEX(MFG.) 268.11 297.89 342.47 326.12 384.99 18.05
10 Food products 385.10 410.42 501.16 502.47 524.70 4.42
11 Beverages 269.75 257.61 240.41 265.14 263.52 -0.61
12 Tobacco products 135.48 139.57 138.51 136.07 136.33 0.19
13 Textile 138.90 168.39 195.19 183.95 184.85 0.49
14 Wearing apparel 338.73 343.74 388.62 359.53 441.76 22.87
15 Leather and related products 125.44 194.13 292.22 278.41 368.98 32.53
16
Wood and products of wood and
cork 301.72 325.26 339.52 335.59 350.71 4.51
17 Paper and paper products 181.08 183.67 185.38 184.71 186.98 1.23
18
Printing and reproduction of
recorded media 147.83 155.62 162.22 159.39 173.53 8.87
19
Coke and refined petroleum
products 112.00 182.74 100.80 92.38 109.46 18.49
20 Chemicals and chemical products 92.73 104.04 100.50 109.62 148.79 35.73
21
Pharmaceuticals and medicinal
chemical 319.26 424.30 507.53 484.25 676.56 39.71
22 Rubber and plastic products 338.14 359.79 411.94 398.08 435.04 9.28
23
Other non-metallic mineral
products 258.34 341.85 381.85 357.55 415.61 16.24
24 Basic metals 202.85 174.04 185.27 181.70 187.40 3.14
25
Fabricated metal products except
machinery 200.53 146.01 274.34 271.82 293.86 8.11
26
Computer, electronic and optical
products 231.89 153.33 178.57 175.42 196.79 12.18
27 Electrical equipment 214.12 142.77 337.58 346.49 308.12 -11.08
28 Machinery and equipment n.e.c 279.14 406.37 548.73 507.46 606.65 19.54
29
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-
trailers 331.63 559.61 438.44 342.19 766.72 124.06
30 Other transport equipment 592.41 560.00 604.43 584.44 569.44 -2.57
31 Furniture 132.02 151.44 184.81 182.69 196.86 7.76
If other industries could retain at least the same rate of growth as achieved in the corresponding
period of previous fiscal year, the overall manufacturing sector may achieve a growth rate of
14.73% in FY2018-19 as compared to 13.40% in FY2017-18.
Electricity and Gas: The data available up to December 2018 have been used for projecting
the growth rate of this sector. Long term trend of the annual production of electricity and gas
is shown in the following table:
9

15. Table 4. Production of Gas and Electricity
Year Gas
(106
Cu. meter)
Electricity
(106
KWh)
2005-06 14,921 22,977
2006-07 15,920 23,268
2007-08 17,014 24,953
2008-09 18,511 26,533
2009-10 19,919 29,246
2010-11 20,075 31,355
2011-12 21,056 35,117
2012-13 22,670 38,229
2013-14 23,232 38,040
2014-15 25,263 40,358
2015-16 27,559 46,371
2016-17 27,445 50,691
2017-18 27,430 56,014
2017-18 6,929 (July-September) 27,954 (July-December)
2018-19 7,036 (July-September) 31,211 (July- December)
• In FY2016-17 and FY2017-18 electricity production was 50,691 and 56,014 million KWh
respectively as reported by Power Development Board (PDB). Electricity production for
the first six months (July-December 2018) of FY2018-19 was 31,211 million KWh,which
was 3,257 million KWh higher than that of the same period of the previous year. It is
expected that the generation of electricity will maintain the same growth in the full year of
FY2018-19.
• In FY2016-17 and FY2017-18 gas production was 27.45 and 27.43 billion cubic meters
respectively. Gas production for the first three months (July-September 2018) of FY2018-
19 was 7.04 billion cubic meters, which was 1.54% higher than that of the same period of
last year.
As a result, the growth rate of the electricity, gas and water supply sector is expected to be
10.57% in FY2018-19 as compared to 9.19% in FY2017-18.
Construction: The major components of construction activities are pucca, semi-pucca, kutcha
house construction and other structures. The value of output of pucca and semi-pucca dwelling
and non-dwellings construction is estimated using commodity flow approach. This approach
envisages estimation of production of commodities used in construction after adjusting them
for inputs in other industries, changes in stocks; imports and exports so as to obtain the net
10

16. availability of commodities for construction purposes. The expenditure on kutcha house
construction is estimated in an indirect way, based on the estimated increase in the stock of
such houses and the cost of construction of an average quality house. Cement, iron and steel,
bricks, timber & round wood and fixtures & fittings are the major inputs of the construction
sector. The domestic production of cement in the first six months of FY2018-19 is higherthan
that of the same period of previous year. Data available from Bangladesh Bank shows that the
import of iron and steel during July-December 2018 is higher than that of the same period of
the previous year. The production of bricks in the first six months of FY2018-19 is slightly
increased over the same period of previous year. Public sector construction is likely to be higher
due to increased Annual Development Programme for FY2018-19. As a whole the construction
sector is likely to achieve higher growth rate due to increase of construction activity. The
construction sector is, therefore, projected to grow by 9.61% in FY2018-19.
11

17. Service Sector
Service sector or tertiary sector includes all service activities. Total output of the service sector
consists of the collective outputs of the wholesale and retail trade, transport, storage and
communication, financial intermediations, real estate, renting and business activities, public
administration and defence, education, health and social work and community, social and
personal services activities. The sectoral share of the services sector is 55.38% of the total
GDP at current prices. Growth scenarios of the service sector for FY2018-19 are briefly as
follows:
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles and Personal and
Household goods: Commodity flow method is applied to estimate output of this sector which
depends on agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The output of this sector is likely to register
a growth rate of 7.70% in FY2018-19 compared to 7.45% in previous year. It is due to increase
in manufacturing production and imported commodities in FY2018-19. Table 5 and table 6
present the value added estimates and the growth rates of wholesale and retail trade sector
during FY2015-16 to FY2018-19 at current and constant prices respectively.
Hotel and Restaurant: Growth rates obtained from Hotel and restaurant survey 2009-10 are
used for estimating output of Hotel and Restaurants sector adjusted by coefficients from survey
of selected economic indicators. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used for constant price
estimates. The sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 7.43% in FY2018-19 which is
higher than previous year (7.28%).
Transport, Storage and Communication Sector: Major sources of information of this sector
are Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA), Bangladesh Railway (BR), Bangladesh
Shipping Corporation (BSC), Chittagong Port Authority, Bangladesh Inland Water Transport
Corporation (BIWTC), Bangladesh Post Office etc. The combined effect of information from
this sector show that the transport, storage and communication sector is expected to achieve a
growth rate of 6.88 in FY2018-19 which is higher than previous year (6.58%). Post and Tele
communication services increased with a growth of 7.56% in FY2018-19. Communication
services, particularly the Mobile Phone Services (MPS) market continued to drive the
telecommunication industries because of strong consumer demand which led to the high
growth of Post and Telecommunication sub-sector. Hence the share of this sector in GDP is
estimated 10.98% at constant prices.
12

18. Financial Intermediations: The financial institutions including central bank, schedulebanks,
leasing companies, insurance companies, microfinance institutions, stock markets etc. belong
to this sector. The sources of data are Bangladesh Bank, Insurance Development and Regularity
Authority (IDRA), Bangladesh Insurance Association, Bangladesh Central Depository Ltd and
annual report of other financial institutions. Net interest income is the key indicator used to
estimate the value added of banking sector, where premium received less claim paid is usedto
estimate the value added of insurance sector. Other financial auxiliary includes money
changers, insurance agents and stock markets. The sector experienced an increase of 7.90% in
FY2017-18, where the increase is estimated to 8.32% in FY2018-19.
Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Sector: Inter-censal compound growth rate is
used for estimating dwelling houses. Annual average house rent and maintenance cost is used
for estimating output and intermediate consumption respecting at constant price. Extrapolation
and set movers obtained from the Population and Housing Census, 2011, have been used for
estimating the value added in this sector for FY2018-19. The growth rate in this sector is
provisionally estimated at 5.15% in FY2018-19.
Public Administration & Defence Sector: This sector covers services rendered by the
administrative departments of the central and the local governments, government non-profit
institutions (NPIs) and defense sector as well. The sources of data are the budget documents of
the central government (revenue and development budgets) and local governments. At
constant prices Public Administration and Defense sector is likely to grow by 6.45 percent in
FY2018-19 compared to the previous year.
Education Sector: Gross value added (GVA) of this sector is compiled mainly from public
and private educational institutions. Public part is estimated from Government budget
document. Private part is estimated from the growth rate of “Private education survey 2006-
07”. Sectoral growth rate for education is expected to be 6.50% in FY2018-19 compared 7.01%
in FY2017-18.
Health and Social Works: Health sector is divided into public and private sub sector. Current
price GVA of Public sector is estimated on income method by using the data from government
expenditure data collected from office of the Comptroller General of Accounts (CGA). Current
price is then deflated to constant price by using CPI national. Growth rate of Survey on private
health establishment survey, 2007 is used to estimate constant price GVA of private sector and
it is being inflated by the said deflator to come up with current price estimate. It is estimated
13

19. that the sector would record as higher growth of 9.15% in FY2018-19 as compared to 7.02%
in FY2017-18.
Community, Social and Personal Services: This sector is projected to grow by 3.69% in
FY2018-19 over FY2017-18. This sector is estimated from the growth rate of “Labour force
survey 2013” and “Professional and miscellaneous survey 1992-93”.
Sectoral Shares in GDP
At current prices the share of the Agriculture sector (which includes crop and non-crop
agriculture, animal farming and poultry, forestry and fishing) in total GDP is 13.31% in
FY2018-19 as against 13.82% for FY2017-18. At current prices, the share of Industry sector
in total GDP is 31.31% for FY2018-19 as against 30.17% for FY2017-18. The share of the
service sector (wholesale and retail trade; hotel and restaurants; transport, storage and
communication; financial intermediations; real estate, renting and business activity; public
administration and defence; education; health and social work; community, social and personal
services) in total GDP is 55.38% for FY2018-19 which was 56.00% for FY2017-18. The data
on sectoral shares show that the share of agriculture sector in GDP is gradually decreasing
while that of service sector is increasing.
These changes indicate that while physical output (particularly for crops and horticulture) of
Agriculture sector has increased on a sustained basis, its relative contribution has been
declining while service sector contribution has been steadily increasing over the period.
14

20. Table 5. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Sector at Current Prices, 2015-16 to
2018-19(p)
(Million Tk.)
Industry Sector
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
I. Agriculture 2,433,902 8.62 2,650,253 8.89 2,942,347 11.02 3,210,937 9.13
1. Agriculture and Forestry 1,903,146 7.83 2,053,983 7.93 2,273,525 10.69 2,462,659 8.32
i) Crops and Horticulture 1,343,222 6.50 1,437,045 6.98 1,591,711 10.76 1,713,076 7.62
ii) Animal Farming 331,653 10.98 360,262 8.63 396,246 9.99 432,118 9.05
iii) Forest and Related Services
228,271 11.38 256,676 12.44 285,568 11.26 317,465 11.17
2. Fishing 530,756 11.55 596,270 12.34 668,823 12.17 748,278 11.88
II. Industry 4,738,710 16.51 5,483,066 15.71 6,422,191 17.13 7,552,838 17.61
3. Mining and Quarrying 285,777 19.69 341,270 19.42 388,837 13.94 440,386 13.26
4. Manufacturing 2,951,110 15.96 3,418,287 15.83 4,041,443 18.23 4,820,481 19.28
i) Large and Medium Scale 2,401,641 16.59 2,792,168 16.26 3,325,938 19.12 3,998,602 20.22
ii) Small Scale 549,469 13.31 626,119 13.95 715,505 14.28 821,878 14.87
5. Electricity, Gas, Water
Supply 238,291 19.94 262,435 10.13 293,361 11.78 325,408 10.92
6. Construction 1,263,532 16.47 1,461,073 15.63 1,698,550 16.25 1,966,563 15.78
III. Services 9,300,505 14.23 10,565,912 13.61 11,918,701 12.80 13,361,116 12.10
7. Wholesale and Retail Trade;
Repair of Motor Vehicles,
Motorcycles and Personal
and Household Goods
2,142,574 11.25 2,439,581 13.86 2,798,225 14.70 3,212,040 14.79
8. Hotels and Restaurants 170,583 14.27 193,182 13.25 221,228 14.52 252,803 14.27
9. Transport, Storage and
Communication 1,691,650 12.76 1,870,755 10.59 2,046,300 9.38 2,254,382 10.17
10. Financial Intermediations 636,013 14.06 732,046 15.10 837,283 14.38 942,647 12.58
11. Real Estate, Renting and
Business Activity 1,237,395 16.67 1,445,392 16.81 1,664,189 15.14 1,868,491 12.28
12. Public Adm. and Defence 667,111 31.65 784,407 17.58 902,277 15.03 1,001,203 10.96
13. Education 465,124 23.62 568,555 22.24 644,778 13.41 723,081 12.14
14. Health and social work 347,578 15.34 389,867 12.17 440,642 13.02 500,562 13.60
15. Community, social and
Personal services 1,942,478 10.12 2,142,127 10.28 2,363,779 10.35 2,605,906 10.24
GVA at current basic prices 16,473,116 14.00 18,699,230 13.51 21,283,239 13.82 24,124,891 13.35
Tax less subsidy 855,521 20.81 1,058,923 23.78 1,221,555 15.36 1,236,879 1.25
GDP at current market prices 17,328,637 14.32 19,758,154 14.02 22,504,793 13.90 25,361,770 12.69
GNI at current market prices 18,326,749 13.53 20,607,164 12.44 23,531,077 14.19 26,497,865 12.61
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates
15

21. Table 6. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Sector at Constant Prices,
2015-16 to 2018-19(p) (base:2005-06)
(Million Tk.)
Industry Sector
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
Value
Added
Sectoral
Growth
Rate
I. Agriculture 1,301,786 2.79 1,340,511 2.97 1,396,616 4.19 1,445,659 3.51
1. Agriculture and Forestry 992,281 1.79 1,011,725 1.96 1,046,880 3.47 1,073,917 2.58
i) Crops and Horticulture 708,139 0.88 714,908 0.96 736,780 3.06 749,693 1.75
ii) Animal Farming 141,027 3.19 145,689 3.31 150,646 3.40 155,873 3.47
iii) Forest and Related services 143,115 5.12 151,128 5.60 159,453 5.51 168,351 5.58
2. Fishing 309,504 6.11 328,786 6.23 349,736 6.37 371,742 6.29
II. Industry 2,675,137 11.09 2,948,659 10.22 3,304,284 12.06 3,734,347 13.02
3. Mining and Quarrying 149,966 12.84 163,302 8.89 174,737 7.00 187,658 7.39
4. Manufacturing 1,782,228 11.69 1,977,653 10.97 2,242,701 13.40 2,573,030 14.73
i) Large and Medium Scale 1,473,134 12.26 1,638,195 11.20 1,871,837 14.26 2,164,112 15.61
ii) Small Scale 309,094 9.06 339,458 9.82 370,864 9.25 408,919 10.26
5. Electricity, Gas, Water supply 127,422 13.33 138,196 8.46 150,892 9.19 166,844 10.57
6. Construction 615,521 8.56 669,508 8.77 735,954 9.92 806,814 9.63
III. Services 4,505,812 6.25 4,807,284 6.69 5,114,389 6.39 5,447,017 6.50
7. Wholesale and Retail Trade;
Repair of Motor Vehicles,
Motorcycles and Personal and
Household Goods 1,186,654 6.50 1,274,166 7.37 1,369,139 7.45 1,474,618 7.70
8. Hotels and Restaurants 63,657 6.98 68,198 7.13 73,159 7.28 78,598 7.43
9. Transport, Storage and
Communication 959,718 6.08 1,024,633 6.76 1,092,084 6.58 1,167,187 6.88
10. Financial Intermediations 287,873 7.74 314,127 9.12 338,934 7.90 367,119 8.32
11. Real Estate, Renting and
Business Activities 562,968 4.47 589,973 4.80 619,357 4.98 651,277 5.15
12.. Public Adm. and Defence 307,962 11.43 336,152 9.15 364,628 8.47 388,139 6.45
13. Education 202,480 11.71 225,465 11.35 241,270 7.01 256,955 6.50
14. Health and Social Work 156,124 7.54 168,040 7.63 179,841 7.02 196,303 9.15
15. Community, Social and
Personal Services 778,376 3.30 806,529 3.62 835,977 3.65 866,820 3.69
GVA at constant basic price 8,482,734 7.17 9,096,454 7.23 9,815,289 7.90 10,627,022 8.27
Tax less subsidy 352,655 5.83 382,521 8.47 409,087 6.94 428,115 4.65
GDP at constant market prices 8,835,389 7.11 9,478,975 7.28 10,224,375 7.86 11,055,137 8.13
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates
16

22. Table 7. Sectoral Share of GDP at Current and Constant Prices, 2015-16 to 2018-19(p)
Industry Sector
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
Current
Prices
Constant
Prices
Current
Prices
Constant
Prices
Current
Prices
Constant
Prices
Current
Prices
Constant
Prices
I. Agriculture 14.77 15.35 14.17 14.74 13.82 14.23 13.31 13.60
1. Agriculture and Forestry 11.55 11.70 10.98 11.12 10.68 10.67 10.21 10.11
i) Crops and Horticulture 8.15 8.35 7.69 7.86 7.48 7.51 7.10 7.05
ii) Animal Farming 2.01 1.66 1.93 1.60 1.86 1.53 1.79 1.47
iii) Forest and Related Services 1.39 1.69 1.37 1.66 1.34 1.62 1.32 1.58
2. Fishing 3.22 3.65 3.19 3.61 3.14 3.56 3.10 3.50
II. Industry 28.77 31.54 29.32 32.42 30.17 33.66 31.31 35.14
3. Mining and Quarrying 1.73 1.77 1.83 1.80 1.83 1.78 1.83 1.77
4. Manufacturing 17.91 21.01 18.28 21.74 18.99 22.85 19.98 24.21
i) Large and Medium Scale 14.58 17.37 14.93 18.01 15.63 19.07 16.57 20.36
ii) Small Scale 3.34 3.64 3.35 3.73 3.36 3.78 3.41 3.85
5. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply 1.45 1.50 1.40 1.52 1.38 1.54 1.35 1.57
6. Construction 7.67 7.26 7.81 7.36 7.98 7.50 8.15 7.59
III. Services 56.46 53.12 56.50 52.85 56.00 52.11 55.38 51.26
7. Wholesale and Retail Trade;
Repair of Motor Vehicles,
Motorcycles and Personal and
Household Goods 13.01 13.99 13.05 14.01 13.15 13.95 13.31 13.88
8. Hotels and Restaurants 1.04 0.75 1.03 0.75 1.04 0.75 1.05 0.74
9. Transport, Storage and
Communication 10.27 11.31 10.00 11.26 9.61 11.13 9.34 10.98
10. Financial Intermediations 3.86 3.39 3.91 3.45 3.93 3.45 3.91 3.45
11. Real Estate, Renting and
Business Activities 7.51 6.64 7.73 6.49 7.82 6.31 7.75 6.13
12. Public Adm. and Defence 4.05 3.63 4.19 3.70 4.24 3.71 4.15 3.65
13. Education 2.82 2.39 3.04 2.48 3.03 2.46 3.00 2.42
14. Health and Social Work 2.11 1.84 2.08 1.85 2.07 1.83 2.07 1.85
15. Community, Social and
Personal Services 11.79 9.18 11.46 8.87 11.11 8.52 10.80 8.16
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates
17

23. Table 8. Per Capita GDP and GNI at Current Prices, 2014-15 to 2018-19(p)
Item 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
GDP (Million Tk.) 15158022 17,328,637 19,758,154 22,504,793 25,361,770
GNI (Million Tk.) 16142043 18,326,749 20,607,164 23,531,077 26,497,865
Per Capita GDP (Tk.) 96004 108,378 122,152 137,518 153,197
Growth rate (per capita GDP) 11.29 12.89 12.71 12.58 11.40
Per Capita GNI (Tk.) 102,236 114,621 127,401 143,789 160,060
Growth rate (per capita GNI) 11.11 12.11 11.15 12.86 11.32
Per Capita GDP (US $) 1236 1,385 1,544 1,675 1,827
Per Capita GNI (US $) 1316 1,465 1,610 1,751 1,909
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates
Table 9. Per Capita GDP and GNI at Constant Prices, 2014-15 to 2018-19(p)
(Base: 2005-06)
Item 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
GDP (Million Tk.) 8248624 8,835,389 9,478,975 10,224,375 11,055,137
GNI (Million Tk.) 8784104 9,344,299 9,886,288 10,690,636 11,550,358
Per Capita GDP (Tk.) 52243 55,259 58,603 62,477 66,778
Growth rate (per capita GDP) 5.11 5.77 6.05 6.61 6.88
Per Capita GNI (Tk.) 55634 58,442 61,121 65,326 69,770
Growth rate (per capita GNI) 4.94 5.05 4.58 6.88 6.80
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates
18

24. Key Indicators of National Accounts
Indicator 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
1. GDP at current market prices (billion Tk.) 17,329 19,758 22,505 25,362
2. GDP at constant market prices (billion Tk.) 8,835 9,479 10,224 11,055
3. GNI at current market prices (billion Tk.) 18,327 20,607 23,531 26,498
4. GNI at constant market prices (billion Tk.) 9,344 9,886 10,691 11,550
5. Per capita GDP at current market prices (Tk.) 108,378 122,152 137,518 153,197
6. Per capita GNI at current market prices (Tk.) 114,621 127,401 143,789 160,060
7. Per capita GDP at current market prices ( in US$) 1,385 1,544 1,675 1,827
8. Per capita GNI at current market prices ( in US$) 1,465 1,610 1,751 1,909
9. Per capita GDP at constant market prices (Tk.) 55,259 58,603 62,477 66,778
10. Per capita GNI at constant market prices (Tk.) 58,442 61,121 65,326 69,770
11. Growth rate of GDP at constant prices (%) 7.11 7.28 7.86 8.13
12. Sectoral growth rate of GDP at constant prices (%)
Agriculture 2.79 2.97 4.19 3.51
Industry 11.09 10.22 12.06 13.02
Services 6.25 6.69 6.39 6.50
13. Sectoral shares of GDP at constant prices (%)
Agriculture 15.35 14.74 14.23 13.60
Industry 31.54 32.42 33.66 35.14
Services 53.12 52.85 52.11 51.26
14. Consumption at current prices (billion Tk.) 13000 14754 17366 19294
Private consumption (billion Tk.) 11979 13569 15935 17696
Public consumption (billion Tk.) 1021 1185 1431 1598
15. Investment at current prices (billion Tk.) 5138 6028 7029 8005
Private investment (billion Tk.) 3983 4564 5235 5934
Public investment (billion Tk.) 1155 1465 1794 2071
16. Domestic savings at current prices (billion Tk.) 4328 5005 5139 6068
17. National savings at current prices (billion Tk.) 5332 5857 6170 7206
18. Consumption as % of GDP 75.02 74.67 77.17 76.07
Private consumption 69.13 68.67 70.81 69.77
Public consumption 5.89 6.00 6.36 6.30
19. Investment as % of GDP 29.65 30.51 31.23 31.56
Private investment 22.99 23.10 23.26 23.40
Public investment 6.66 7.41 7.97 8.17
20. Domestic savings as % of GDP 24.98 25.33 22.83 23.93
21. National savings as % of GDP 30.77 29.64 27.42 28.41
22. Revenue receipt as % of GDP 10.24 11.06 11.53 13.38
Tax 8.97 9.73 10.32 12.06
Non-Tax 1.27 1.33 1.21 1.32
23. Total Government expenditure as % of GDP 15.27 16.05 16.51 18.32
Note: “p” denotes provisional estimates. Constant price base year: 2005-06 Contd.
19

25. Indicator 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(p)
24. General economic level and performance
GDP per capita (US $) 1,385 1,544 1,385 1,544
GDP rate of growth (%) 7.11 7.28 7.11 7.28
25. Investment
Gross fixed capital formation / GDP 29.65 30.51 29.65 30.51
26. Savings
Savings / GDP 30.77 29.64 30.77 29.64
Savings / Gross fixed capital formation 103.77 97.16 103.77 97.16
27. Performance of government
Government budget deficit / GDP 4.74 4.76 4.74 4.76
Taxes / GDP 8.97 9.73 8.97 9.73
28. Foreign trade performance
Imports / GDP, import rate of growth 21.30 20.27 21.3 20.27
Exports / GDP, export rate of growth 16.65 15.04 16.65 15.04
(Exports + imports) / GDP 37.95 35.30 37.95 35.3
(Exports less imports) / GDP -4.65 -5.23 -4.65 -5.23
29. Balance of payments
Current external account balance / GDP 1.14 -0.92 1.14 -0.92
(Exports less imports) / GDP -4.65 -5.23 -4.65 -5.23
30. Foreign exchange reserve (million US$) 30,138 33,493 30,138 33,493/a
31. Prices
Producer Price Index (PPI) (base : 2005-06) 196.19 205.47 216.86 219.791/b
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (base : 2005-06) 219.86 231.82 245.22 262.36/c
Interest rate 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Foreign exchange rates (Taka per US$) 78.27 79.24 82.10 83.94/d
20

26. Final Estimates of GDP for Fiscal Year 2019-20:
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Bangladesh was worth 302.57 billion US dollars in 2019,
according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. The
GDP value of Bangladesh represents 0.25 percent of the world economy.
World Bank (WB) has forecasted the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of Bangladesh
at 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2019-20, while government’s projection for the same fiscal year in
the national budget was 8.2 per cent.
Total GDP:
$347.991 billion (nominal; 2020 est.)
$860.916 billion (PPP; 2020 est.) (Wikipedia).
GDP rank
39th (nominal, 2019)
30th (PPP, 2020)
GDP growth
7.9% (17/18) 8.2% (18/19e)
5.2% (19/20f) 1.0% (20/21f) (Wikipedia).
According to The National Statistical Office (NSO) GDP at Current Prices is estimated to show
growth rate of 7.5% in 2019-20. The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and
Programmed Implementation has released the First Advance Estimates of National Income for
2019-20 forecasting real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2019-20 as compared to the growth rate of 6.8%
in 2018-19. Real GVA growth is estimated 4.9% in 2019-20 as against 6.6% in 2018-19.
21

27. Gross National Product in Bangladesh increased to 12195.25 BDT Billion in 2020 from 11550.46 BDT
Billion in 2019.
Per capita income:
The Per Capita Net National Income is estimated to be Rs 1,35,050 in 2019-20 showing a rise of
6.8% as compared to Rs 1,26,406 during 2018-19 with the growth rate of 10.0% (NSO).
The National Income is expected to register a growth rate of 7.6% in 2019-20 as against the
previous year's growth rate of 11.3% (NSO). The per capita income is now $2064 US Dollar (Prime
Minister)
GDP per capita
$2,065 (nominal, FY20)
$5,453 (PPP, 2020 est.) (Wikipedia).
GDP per capita rank
143rd (nominal, 2019)
137th (PPP, 2019) (Wikipedia).
Inflation (CPI):
5.5% (2020 est.) (Wikipedia). 22

28. The annual inflation rate in Bangladesh declined to 5.53 percent in July 2020 from a seven-month
high of 6.02 percent in the previous month, as food inflation slowed to 5.70 percent from 6.54
percent. Meanwhile, non-food prices increased 5.28 percent, compared to 5.22 percent in June. On a
monthly basis, consumer prices climbed 0.78 percent, after a 0.95 percent jump in June.
Sectoral performances of the economy for FY2019-20:
Agriculture sector:
The growth in the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', ' is estimated to be 2.8%, 1.5%, respectively (NSO).
Industry and Services Sector:
The sectors which registered growth rate of over 4.9% are, 'electricity, gas, water supply and other
utility services', 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting',
'financial, real estate and professional services' and 'public administration, defense and other services'
at 5.4%, 5.9%, 6.4%, 9.1% respectively (NSO).
In terms of GDP, the rates of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current and Constant
(2011-12) Prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 60.2% and 57.4%, respectively, as against the
corresponding rates of 59.4% and 56.9%, respectively in 2018-19.
The rates of Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current and constant (2011-12)
prices during 2019-20 are estimated at 11.9% and 11.3%, respectively, as against the corresponding
rates of 11.2% and 10.7%, respectively in 2018-19.
The rates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current and Constant (2011-12) prices during
2019-20 are estimated at 28.1% and 31.1%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.3%
and 32.3%, respectively in 2018-19.
As per the government data, private investment to GDP increased to 23.63% in FY2020 from 23.54%
in FY2019, which required a nominal growth of 10.4%. Public investment to GDP increased to
8.12% in FY2020 from 8.03% in FY2019
23

29. Sectoral shares in GDP:
agriculture: 13.60%
industry: 35.14%
services: 51.26% (Bangladesh Economic Review 2019)
Labor force by occupation
• agriculture: 40.6%
• industry: 20.4%
• services: 39.6% (Bangladesh Economic Review 2019)
The total population in Bangladesh was estimated at 165.2 million people in 2019, according to the latest
census figures and projections from Trading Economics.
24

30. Bangladesh - Economic Indicators
Markets Last Reference Previous Range Frequency
Currency 84.63 Sep/20 84.8 67.2 : 85.1 Daily
Stock Market (points) 4928 Sep/20 4892 3593 : 6337 Daily
Overview Last Reference Previous Range Frequency
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 8.2 Dec/19 7.9 4.08 : 8.2 Yearly
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.2 Dec/19 4.3 2.2 : 5.1 Yearly
Inflation Rate (%) 5.53 Jul/20 6.02 -0.03 : 16 Monthly
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 Jun/20 5.25 4.5 : 8.75 Daily
Balance of Trade (BDT Billion) -137 Jun/20 -111 -210 : 0 Monthly
Current Account (USD Million) -871 Mar/20 -774 -3293 : 1852 Quarterly
Current Account to GDP (%) -1.8 Dec/19 -3.6 -4.4 : 3.7 Yearly
Government Debt to GDP (%) 27.9 Dec/18 27 27 : 50 Yearly
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.5 Dec/19 -4.8 -5.5 : -1.3 Yearly
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25 Dec/19 25 25 : 40 Yearly
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 30 Dec/19 30 25 : 30 Yearly
Coronavirus Cases (Persons) 319686 Sep/20 317528 3 : 319686 Daily
Coronavirus Deaths (Persons) 4351 Sep/20 4351 0 : 4351 Daily
Coronavirus Recovered (Persons) 211016 Sep/20 211016 0 : 211016 Daily
Source: Trading Economics
25

31. Bangladesh - Economic Forecasts - 2020-2022
Outlook
Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 84.63 85.04 85.27 85.51 85.75 86.22
Stock Market (points) 4927.82 4819 4712 4608 4506 4302
Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 8.20 1.5 1.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6
Inflation Rate (%) 5.53 2.83 3.7 4.3 5.5 6
Interest Rate (%) 5.25 5 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75
Balance of Trade (BDT Billion) -137.20 -90 -80 -90 -40 -110
Current Account (USD Million) -871.00 -1050 -850 -320 -150 -550
Current Account to GDP (%) -1.80 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.5
Government Debt to GDP (%) 27.90 30.3 30.3 34.1 34.1 34.1
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.50 -7.5 -7.5 -7 -7 -7
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Source: Trading Economics
This page has economic forecasts for Bangladesh including a long-term outlook for the next decades,
plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the
next release affecting the Bangladesh economy.
26

32. Conclusion
The rapid evolution of COVID-19 and its already palpable impact on the Travel & Tourism sector,
has once again highlighted the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of shocks today, the
reality of the “panic factor” and the importance of being crisis ready to ensure the sector is able to
safeguard its people and its destinations. While Travel & Tourism has become increasingly resilient,
with the average recovery time from crisis decreasing from 26 months to 10 months between 2001
and 2018; the economic impact of shocks has increased. In effect, according to WTTC’s scenario
analysis from June 2020, which reflects the current uncertainty in the sector’s outlook particularly
with regards to the scale and duration of travel restrictions; Travel & Tourism job losses for 2020 are
projected at 121.1 million for the baseline scenario and 197.5 million for the downside scenario.
Meanwhile, Travel & Tourism GDP losses are projected at $3.4 trillion for the baseline and $5.5
trillion for the downside scenario.
It is clear from WTTC’s previous research and the current experience with COVID-19, that no one
stakeholder group can address today’s shocks on their own; requiring both inter-governmental
cooperation as well as public-private collaboration. The extensive impact of COVID-19 has once
again illustrated the need to strike a balance between protecting the health of individuals and the
health of economies. Managing the fear, panic, stigma – and associated info emic- is also key. In
effect, according to the WHO, 90% of economic losses during any outbreaks arise from the
uncoordinated and irrational efforts of the public to avoid infection.
As such, the importance of taking strategic approach, built on facts and experience, and ensuring
business continuity, remains central to the successful management and swift recovery of a crisis. To
enable the sector to bounce back in the aftermath of COVID-19, WTTC recommends the
implementation of policies such as the improvement of travel facilitation, the removal of barriers, the
easing of fiscal policies, the introduction of incentives as well as the support of destinations. To
support the sector’s recovery, WTTC has launched global protocols with the aim of rebuilding
confidence amongst consumers so they can travel safely once the restrictions are lifted.
The Travel & Tourism sector grew considerably over the past decades, with the number of air
travelers increasing from 2.4 billion in 2009 to 4.4 billion in 2018 according to IATA. Yet, this
growth has led to a strain on infrastructure, processes and systems, all of which are insufficient to
meet this forecast demand, even with the implementation of current improvement plans and solutions.
27

33. These pressures are expected to continue mounting in the coming years, making action to continue
enabling the secure, safe and seamless movement of legitimate travelers across international borders.
In this context, and in light of COVID-19, transformations through technological advances, most
notably biometrics and the use of digital identity, show strong opportunities to enable a safe, secure
and seamless end-to-end experience, whilst supporting the sector’s recovery. Such a solution is
supported with WTTC research suggesting that, on average, 4 out of 5 travelers would be willing to
share their photographs in advance of travel to speed up their journey. Most recently, a survey from
Global Rescue released on April 27 revealed that 91% of travelers are willing to subject themselves to
screening and testing, 93% are willing to share their past 14-day travel history, and 73% are willing to
disclose medical conditions related to a compromised immune system. Over the past 18 months,
WTTC considered the pain points from a security perspective to ensure a seamless journey, analyzing
80 biometric initiatives around the world and identifying many examples of better journeys for
travelers. For instance, in one case, the boarding time of a 400-person capacity aircraft was reduced
by 66% from 45 minutes to 15 minutes, through improvements in efficiency from the use of biometric
technology. WTTC plans to build on its approach for a seamless journey to identify the health
security and hygiene pain points as the world responds to COVID-19 and find tangible solutions to
support the sector in ensuring it deliver a safe and seamless traveler experience.
Human confinement and the economic impact of COVID-19 has transformed the retail landscape.
Following this intense period of digital engagement and physical restriction, high-quality experiential
and meaningful flagship destinations will be demanded more than ever before. The Bicester Village
Shopping Collection’s luxury shopping destinations in Western Europe and China are located in
culturally rich regions outside the city, where guests can enjoy a day in an open-air environment. Yet,
in response to Chinese local Government guidelines, Suzhou Village and Shanghai Village closed for
four and six weeks respectively. Since reopening, the two Villages in China have rapidly recovered,
achieving robust double-digit growth and demonstrating the confidence that guests have in these
destinations. In this new era guests are more cautious, initially gravitating to destinations close to
home, first locally, then nationally. For instance, high net worth individuals who may have travelled
frequently for business or leisure pre-Covid-19 now remain closer to home. In China, Suzhou’s
Tourism Board also launched the ‘Locals Travelling Locally’ initiative to capitalize on domestic
guests. This will then be followed by the re-emergence of short-haul and eventually long-haul travel;
logically the same principle will apply in Europe.
28

34. Ultimately, guests are drawn to destinations that ensure a safe environment through the
implementation of protocols, as well as uplifting experiences, where social distancing can be calmly
observed. As of 15 June, The Bicester Village Shopping Collections’ nine Villages in Europe are all
open and have again demonstrated healthy growth since reopening. The Bicester Village Shopping
Collection’s experience in China and in Europe is now informing its vision for the future and, in the
near term, the integration of Shopping Protocols, aligned with local government and health authority
guidelines, while delivering an exceptional guest experience. Travel & Tourism is facing
unprecedented challenges and an existential threat from the impact of the COVID-19 virus globally.
WTTC, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, has conducted a scenario analysis to look at a range
of plausible economic outcomes from COVID-19 on the Travel & Tourism sector. Three scenarios -
upside, baseline and downside - reflect the current uncertainty in the tourism outlook, particularly
with regards to the scale and duration of travel restrictions. WTTC’s annual research shows the Travel
& Tourism sector experienced 3.5% growth in 2019, outpacing that of the global economy (2.5%) for
the ninth consecutive year. Over the past five years, one in four of all global net new jobs were
created by the sector, making Travel & Tourism the best partner for governments to generate
employment. However, with the COVID-19 crisis we are in uncharted territory; our sector is uniquely
exposed. Barriers to global travel, such as quarantine measures, blanket anti-travel advisories,
inadequate testing & tracing, limited adoption of global health and safety protocols, a lack of
coordination across governments and between public & private sectors, and a second wave of
infections could all lead to significant economic losses. Therefore, it is essential that governments
recognize this and implement measures that will safely re-start and facilitate the faster recovery of the
Travel & Tourism sector and save millions of people whose livelihoods depend on it.
KEY GLOBAL PROJECTIONS FOR 2020
❖ In general, domestic travel restrictions will be lifted first, followed by those for short-
haul/regional travel and finally the restrictions for intercontinental travel.
❖ Travel & Tourism job losses for 2020 are projected at 98.2 million for the upside scenario,
121.1 million for the baseline and 197.5 million for the downside scenario.
❖ Travel & Tourism GDP losses are projected at $2,686 billion for the upside, $3,435 billion for
the baseline and $5,543 billion for the downside.
29

35. GLOBAL UPSIDE (BEST-CASE) SCENARIO
Assumptions: Current restrictions starting to ease from June for domestic and short-haul/regional
travel, and from August for intercontinental travel. This translates into 41% reduction in international
travel (arrivals) overall in 2020 compared with the counterfactual scenario and 26% reduction in
domestic travel.
• Results:
Under this scenario, there are 98.2 million Travel & Tourism job losses projected for 2020 and a
$2,686 bn loss in Travel & Tourism GDP. This represents a 30% reduction in jobs and GDP
compared with 2019. While this scenario would have a devastating impact on Travel & Tourism, the
outcome avoids unnecessary additional harm to the sector as travel restrictions are not prolonged in
this case. It would protect 99.3 million jobs and $2,857 billion in GDP that could otherwise be lost
under the downside scenario. However, this can only be achieved if governments take urgent action to
remove barriers to travel and safely re-start and support the recovery of the Travel & Tourism sector.
This scenario could be achieved by:
1.The infection rates continuing to decrease
2.Extensive and consistent testing and tracing
3. Travel corridors and bubbles that enable faster border opening
4. A coordinated approach across countries, and between public & private sectors
5. Adoption of global health and safety protocols
6. Continued government support for the sector
7. The removal of travel advisories and bans on non- essential international travel, which prevent
insurance protection cover for travelers
8.No quarantines.
GLOBAL BASELINE SCENARIO
• Assumptions: Current restrictions starting to ease from June for domestic travel, from July for short-
haul/regional travel, and from September for intercontinental travel. This translates into 53% reduction
in international travel (arrivals) overall in 2020 and 34% reduction in domestic travel.
30

36. • Results:
Under this scenario, there are 121.1 million Travel & Tourism job losses projected for 2020 and $3,435
bn loss in Travel & Tourism GDP. This represents a 37% reduction in jobs compared with 2019 and
39% reduction in GDP.
• This scenario could be achieved by:
o the infection rates continuing to decrease
o Some testing and tracing
o the gradual adoption of global health and safety protocols
o Travel corridors and bubbles agreed between select countries
o the gradual adoption of a coordinated approach across governments, and public & private sectors
o Continued government support for the sector.
GLOBAL DOWNSIDE (WORST-CASE) SCENARIO
• Assumptions:
Current restrictions starting to ease from September for domestic and short-haul/regional travel, and
from November for intercontinental travel. This translates into 73% reduction in international travel
(arrivals) overall in 2020 and 64% reduction in domestic travel.
• Results:
Under this scenario, there are 197.5 million Travel & Tourism job losses projected for 2020 and
$5,543 bn loss in Travel & Tourism GDP. This represents a 60% reduction in jobs compared with
2019 and 62% reduction in GDP. This scenario projects 99.3 million additional job losses compared
with the upside scenario.
• This scenario could be achieved by:
o A second outbreak/second wave of infections
o Inadequate testing & tracing
o Limited adoption of global health and safety protocols
o Continued 14-day quarantines and border closures
o Limited coordination across governments and between public & private sectors
o A lack of government support for the sector
31

37. o Blanket anti-travel advisories.
In addition, prolonged restrictions alongside a weaker economic outlook would depress consumer
confidence and lead to a significant drop in tourism active.
REMARKS
The worst-case scenario can be avoided if countries follow WTTC´s five-point plan for
recovery:
1. Immediate removal and replacement of any quarantine measures, with ‘air corridors’ to countries
with similar circumstances to stimulate the Travel & Tourism sector and the global economy, as well
as the removal of travel advisories and bans on non- essential international travel, which prevent
insurance protection cover for travelers.
2. Adoption of global health and safety protocols, such as the ‘Safe Travels’ initiative recently
launched by WTTC, to provide assurance to travelers that it is safe to travel again.
3. Implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy to help contain the spread of the virus, while still
allowing people to travel responsibly at home and abroad.
4. Greater, and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a
standardized, global approach to the crisis.
5. Continued government support for the sector in terms of fiscal and liquidity incentives as well as
measures to protect workers.
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38. Explanatory Notes
Concepts and data sources used in compiling GDP estimates
1. GDP is an aggregate measure of the total value of gross output produced within the economic
territory of a country in a specified period, before deducting allowance for consumption of fixed
capital (CFC) or depreciation. GDP is measured by using three different approaches.
2. Provisional GDP estimates for Bangladesh are compiled using both “production” and
“expenditure” approaches. Data sources used for “production” approach include crops statistics,
extrapolation based on inter-census growth rate of population and agriculture censuses, current
industrial production survey, government budgets, other administrative records, external trade
statistics, etc.
3. Under “Production” approach/method, GDP is measured as the total value added (value of output
minus intermediate consumption) arising from production of all goods and services sectors of the
economy. It is the sum of value added of all industrial sectors.
4. For “Expenditure” approaches data sources include HIES (Household Income Expenditure Survey),
external trade statistics, balance of payment statistics, government accounts and related data from
non-government organizations.
5. Under “Income” approach GDP can be measured as the sum of incomes paid out to the employees
by the producers known as Compensation of Employees (CE), Mixed Income (MI) of the self-
employed persons and Operating Surplus (OS) of the producers and the Consumption of the Fixed
Capital (CFC). The sum of all elements covering payments to the factors of production is also equal
to gross value added at basic prices. If Indirect Taxes (IT) less subsidies on production and products
are added, it would be equivalent to GDP in market prices. For lack of required data, BBS could not
compile GDP by using this approach.
6. Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over
a period of time. Publication schedule of production and expenditure-based GDP estimates.
33

39. 7. “Production” and “Expenditure” based “Provisional Estimate of Annual GDP” are released with a
time lag of about nine months after the reference year (i.e. in April / May of the current financial
year). This is the 21st such publication of BBS. Annual GDP estimates along with other national
accounts aggregates are also published in the Monthly Statistical Bulletin and other publications of
BBS.
8. The final estimates are based on confirmed data and released within eight to nine months after the
end of the financial year. The GDP estimates of Bangladesh are published as follows:
i) Provisional GDP Estimates: Data mainly up to December of the fiscal year to be used for estimation
and publication by April-May of the fiscal year.
ii) Final GDP Estimates: By April-May of the following fiscal year. Qualification of data and caveats
on the use of provisional GDP estimates
GDP estimates by Production Approach:
9. Provisional GDP estimates based on production approach are subject to a number of qualifications
due to non-availability of the required data. These qualifications are:
1. Agriculture and Forestry
a. Crops and horticulture:
Generally actual production figures of aus and jute are used. For other major crops (aman, boro and
wheat) projected production figures are used. Estimates made by the Ministry of Agriculture and
Sample Crop Cutting by BBS are used to validate the estimates. Minor crops are imputed at last
year’s levels and validated as and when necessary with the production estimates available from the
most recent Household Income Expenditure Survey.
34

40. b. Animal farming:
Extrapolated on the basis of inter-census growth rate obtained from Census of Agriculture, 1983-84,
Census of Agriculture, 1996 and 2008.
c. Forest and related services:
Outputs projected on the basis of earlier years.
2. Fishing
Based on estimates/projection provided by DOF and validated on the basis of the most recent HIES
2010 data.
3. Mining Quarrying
Administrative data of BCIC and Petro Bangla are used for estimating most of the outputs.
4. Manufacturing
Actual growth plus extrapolation based on QIIP for medium and large industries and also QIIP for
small industries are taken into consideration.
5. Power, Gas, Water
Based on targets, modified by actual production data up to December for gas and electricity of the
fiscal year.
6. Construction
Based on the trend of imports of major construction inputs and domestic production data of related
industries till December of the fiscal year.
7.Wholesale and Retail Trade
Growth rate reflecting trends of imports, agricultural and industrial production.
8. Hotels and Restaurants
Extrapolated on the basis of Report on Integrated Annual Survey of Non-farm Economic Activities.
35

41. 9. Transport, Storage and Communication
Imputation of last year’s figure and selective use of administrative data available up to December of
the fiscal year. Also, the budgetary data of government transport and communication agencies of the
fiscal year are utilized.
10. Public Administration and Defense
Based on national budget allocations for the fiscal year.
11. Financial Intermediations
Projections based on last year data, bank deposit and credit up to December 2018.
12. Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities
Projections based on inter-census growth rate: Population Census, Labor Force Surveys, Household
Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and estimates of housing stock and rental income.
13. Health and Social Work
Based on national budget allocations for FY2018-19 for public sub-sector estimates. Projection and
extrapolation growth rates of the major components for private subsector estimates.
14. Education
Based on national budget allocations for the public sector. Projection and extrapolation of growth
rates for private sub-sector.
15. Community, Social and Personal Services
Projection and extrapolation growth rates of major components. Provisional estimates provide trends
of economic performance. Provisional GDP estimates are usually subject to revisions because of
subsequent data changes.
36

42. Expenditure based GDP estimates
Expenditure based provisional GDP estimates are relatively imprecise in nature because of weakness
in the data base used in calculation. The estimates are also subject to limitations of the methodologies
used in estimating the components. The external trade statistics of the last quarter of the year usually
show higher trends and may not follow the previous year’s pattern. Uncertainties in the actual
expenditures during first quarter are likely to affect the volume of public sector investments. The
basis of extrapolation of the private consumption expenditures and investments is also fragile. Owing
to data limitations, no account is taken of the overall stock changes.
Consumption of NPISH and acquisition net of disposal of valuables are assumed to be included in
private consumption.
The provisional GDP estimates by expenditure category are compiled on the basis of the following
data sources:
1. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure: Based on national budget allocation,
government final consumption is extrapolated.
2. Private Final Consumption Expenditure: Extrapolation is done based on recent HIES 2010 data
and also residual method is adopted for reconciliation.
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Import of capital goods and domestic production of materials for
capital goods like construction input up to December of the fiscal year is used.
4.Net Exports: Based on Balance of Payment (BOP) data and actual trends of imports and exports up
to December of the fiscal year.
37

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44. ❖ Chowdhury, Kamran Reza (19 May 2013). "Mongla seaport to get railway link in 4 years".
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