Presentation on "Foresight Methods to Create Transformative Growth" by Tanja Hichert IFI Seminar - 30 Aug 2018, Bangkok Thailand

1. FORESIGHT METHODS TO CREATE
TRANSFORMATIVE GROWTH
Tanja Hichert
30 August 2018

2. “FUTURISM IS AN ART OF REPERCEPTION. IT MEANS
RECOGNIZING THAT LIFE WILL CHANGE, MUST CHANGE,
AND HAS CHANGED, AND IT SUGGESTS HOW AND WHY.
IT SHOWS THAT OLD PERCEPTIONS HAVE LOST THEIR
VALIDITY, WHILE NEW ONES ARE POSSIBLE.”.
Bruce Sterling, science fiction writer

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CHANGE VS TRANSFORMATION

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THE FORESIGHT METHODS MENTIONED TODAY
 Jim Dator’s Scenario Archetypes aka generic “images of the future”
 Horizon Scanning
 Three Horizons Framework
 Adapted Mānoa scenarios method
 Causal Layered Analysis

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SCENARIO ARCHETYPES / GENERIC “IMAGES OF THE FUTURE”

6. Steffen et al. 2015. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review 1-18.

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SCENARIO ARCHETYPES / GENERIC “IMAGES OF THE FUTURE”

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LIMITS TO GROWTH

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SCENARIO ARCHETYPES / GENERIC “IMAGES OF THE FUTURE”

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A GOOD LIFE FOR ALL WITHIN PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

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SCENARIO ARCHETYPES / GENERIC “IMAGES OF THE FUTURE”

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VISIONS OF A GOOD ANTHROPOCENE: SCANNING FOR ‘SEEDS’
OF POSITIVE FUTURES

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3-HORIZONS FRAMEWORK -- UNDERSTAND SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Curry & Sharpe

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CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS

15. “THE RISE AND FALL OF IMAGES OF THE FUTURE PRECEDES OR
ACCOMPANIES THE RISE AND FALL OF CULTURES. AS LONG AS
A SOCIETY'S IMAGE OF THE FUTURE IS POSITIVE AND
FLOURISHING, THE FLOWER OF THE CULTURE IS IN FULL
BLOSSOM. ONCE THE IMAGE OF THE FUTURE BEGINS TO
DECAY AND LOSE ITS VITALITY, HOWEVER, THE CULTURE
CANNOT LONG SURVIVE.”
Frederich L. Polak: The Image of the Future 1961

16. “…UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE OF THE FUTURE AND
THE ROLE IT PLAYS IN WHAT WE SEE AND DO. EVIDENCE
SHOWS THAT PEOPLE CAN CHANGE HOW AND WHY THEY
THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE. DEVELOPING THIS CAPACITY
TO IMAGINE CAN BE A POWERFUL TOOL FOR CATALYSING
CHANGE TODAY.”
Riel Miller: Transforming the Future

17. “THE PURPOSE OF FUTURISM IS TO DISTURB THE
PRESENT.”
Gaston Berger – who set up the first futures practice in Paris
“WHAT I WANT TO DO WITH THE SCENARIOS IS TO GET
THE EXECUTIVES TO READ THEIR NEWSPAPERS
DIFFERENTLY.”
Pierre Wack

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 The future does not exist in the present but anticipation does. The form the future takes
in the present is anticipation.

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TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY
The end of current forms of behaviour, beliefs, norms, or organization, and the
emergence of new forms (rather than a return to older or traditional ones)
Two main sub-variants:
 ‘high-tech’ (technological) and
 ‘high-spirit’ (spiritual / consciousness) transformation.
And interesting ‘hybrids’ of these: trans/post-humanism

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 http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools.shtml
 https://futuryst.blogspot.com/
 https://toolsforhopeblog.wordpress.com/
 UNDP Foresight manual
 Angela Wilkinson??

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SOCIO-TECHNICAL TRANSITIONS

23. https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/

24. The Anthropocene:
A new geological epoch where human activity is a
dominant force shaping ecosystems at global scales