On May 16, ICLR hosted a special webinar which provided a forecast of the 2018 wildfire season. The session was led by Richard Carr, Fire Research Analyst for the Canadian Forest Service. The interactive webinar summarized the current conditions in Canada and provided a forecast for the 2018 fire season. Richard provides fire weather processing for the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) and international projects. He provides fire weather briefings to the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) fire group, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), and to federal emergency response personnel, and helps provide seasonal forecasting of fire risk. He also helps provide information to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment Outlook, and the North American Drought Monitor via AAFC’s Canadian Drought Monitor. He represents NRCan-CFS in the CIFFC Forest and Fire Meteorology Working Group.

1. Wildfire Season Forecast
Forecast 2018
May 16, 2018
Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst,
Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada
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Agenda
This presentation
• Provides some background information
• Revisits last year’s fire season
• Summarizes current global and Canadian conditions
• Describes the forecast methodology
• Provides the 2018 forecast (May 1 run)
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Background information
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4. Forecasts: General points
Forecasts of seasonal wildland fire risk are available on
• Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) web site:
http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
• North American Seasonal Forecast Assessment Outlook:
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf
Forecasts are based on:
• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) seasonal forecasts
• Information contained in the CWFIS
• North American outlook areas use visual assessment of other climate
models’ output
• Advice provided by provincial agencies
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5. Wildland fire in Canada
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2017
Fire numbers and areas burned are highly variable
• Number of fires decreasing
• Area burned increasing

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Canadian Wildland Fire Information
System (CWFIS)
The CWFIS provides:
• Fire weather
• Fire behaviour
• Fire locations
• Interactive map
• Seasonal forecast and
other information
URL:
http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
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Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI)
System
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Temperature
Humidity,
Wind, Rain
Temperature,
Humidity,
Rain
Wind
Temperature,
Rain
Fire Weather
Observations
DC
Drought Code
DMC
Duff Moisture Code
ISI
Initial Spread Index
BUI
Buildup Index
FWI
Fire Weather Index
FFMC
Fine Fuel Moisture Code
Fire Behavior
Indexes
Fuel Moisture
Codes
Snow depth
Barometric Pressure
Horizontal Visibility
Cloud cover and type
Upper air data
DSR/MSR/SSR
Severity Rating
Seasonal forecasts use the severity rating anomaly

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Drought Code
The Canadian FWI System allows for adjustment of fall
conditions to the spring using winter precipitation.
Fuel moisture codes represent moisture at three forest floor depths:
Moisture Depth Layer Woody Fuel Precip
Code Threshold
FFMC 0-2 cm Litter layer L Fine twigs, needles, etc 0.5mm
DMC 2-5 cm Fibric layer F Bark, small branches 1.5mm
DC 5+ cm Humic layer H Logs, large branches 2.8mm
Drought Code (DC) based on forest floor moisture capacity of ~200mm
L
F
H

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What affects spring DC?
• Spring DC (and FWI) can depend on El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) events
• La Niña (negative phase) and El Niño (positive phase) are major
drivers of seasonal weather
• Other oscillations (PNA, PDO, AO, MJO, …) likely effect DC,
but at different timescales, intensities; effects not as well-
described
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El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño:
• Warm ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric
pressure higher over Darwin thanTahiti
La Niña:
• Cold ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric
pressure higher overTahiti than Darwin
Events may cause extreme global weather (floods, droughts)
Events persist 9-12 months; sometimes 2+ years
Events recur every 2 to 7 years
Develop often during April-June
Reach maximum strength Dec-Feb

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Fire problems in ENSO Springs
El Niño:
• Warm, windy,
and dry in
western Canada
La Niña:
• Arctic surface
highs bring dry
air, strong wind
around edges
• Temperature
may be cool
Summer fire
problems may
depend on other
influences
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5
1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1
1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7
2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1
2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6
Most area burned
2nd most area burned
Chisholm, AB
Kelowna, BC
Virginia Hills, AB
Slave Lake, AB
Fort McMurray, AB

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ENSO forecasts: Climate Ensembles
ENSO and other influences represented in climate models
Models used by ECCC’s Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC):
• Were developed by Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis
(CCCma)
• Provide temperature and precipitation forecasts
• Ensembles of ten members each produce 12-month forecasts
• CanCM3 uses atmospheric model CanAM3 (AGCM3)
• CanCM4 uses atmospheric model CanAM4 (AGCM4)
• CanSIPS: Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System
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Ensemble Forecasts: FWI calculations
Predicted temperatures and precipitation amounts are
entered into the Canadian FWI system.
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Ensemble Forecasts: Confidence
The ensemble approach
provides a measure of
confidence indicated by
the spread of the
ensemble members.

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The 2017 Fire Season
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2017 National Statistics
Date 2017 fires 10-yr Avg fires % normal 2017 Area (ha) 10-yr Avg Area (ha) %normal
May 31 1,041 1,909 55 8,481 210,967 4
June 28 1,614 2,911 55 165,330 753,071 22
August 2 3,288 4,640 71 1,202,646 2,134,800 56
August
30
4,870 5,780 84 2,983,460 2,527,647 118
End? 5,305 7,500* 71 3,500,000 2,500,000* 140
*NFDB 1990-2016, otherwise CIFFC/CFS Sitrep

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2017 Season
YT, NT, MB, and PC had
slightly more fires than
normal
BC,YT, and NT had much
higher than normal area
burned.

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2017 Season
Sep 30
Aug 31
June 30
July 15
July 31
Aug 15

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2017 Predictions
March June
The seasonal fire severity forecast changed
with ENSO forecast changes.
Weak “Modoki” ENSO, positive PDO, and
MJO may have helped shape the 2017
season.

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2017 Predictions – May and July runs
June July August
New look (at the time)
The “new new” look appears later
May run
July run

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2017 NASFAO: 2-month lead time
May’s forecast for July June’s forecast for August July’s forecast for September
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf
• Uncertainty in climate predictions affected severity forecasts
• 2-month lead time resulted in poor predictions
• Countries use different methodologies

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Oops! We found a coding error in
the cm4 precipitation file reading
…
Fixed for May 1 run
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 ?
Possible problems with 2017 predictions
2016-18: Rapid ENSO fluctuations

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2018 Seasonal Prediction
Starting Conditions
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2017 Fall conditions
Many locations in top 10th percentile
for the time of year
Drought Code
Oct 28, 2017
• 0.0 – 250.0
• 250.0 – 500.0
• 500.0 – 750.0
• 750.0 – 1000.0
• 1000.0 – 1250.0
Does CWFIS need a
new DC class?

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2018 Spring start-up conditions
Past 6 months precipitation: CDM – end of April
Dry in MB, BC Chilcotin;
wet in northeast BC and mountains
Snow depth anomaly:
April 10, May 6

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2018 Spring start-up conditions
DC in much of Canada is higher than in mid-May 2017

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2018 Seasonal Prediction
Climate and CMC Forecasts
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ENSO – Current SST
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ENSO Forecasts
Models predict neutral conditions during spring and summer,
and weak El Niño by late fall/early winter

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ENSO Forecasts
Increasing chance El Nino develops in winter of 2018-19

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0 50 100 150
051015202530
CYEG
Days from Apr 1
Temp-cm3
Seasonal Forecast Methodology
1.Use fall conditions to help assess
spring start-up
2. Calculate average daily weather
4. Calculate fire weather anomaly 3. Apply seasonal predictions
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CanSIPS Forecasts: May, June, July
Higher probability of temperature above normal in BC, central
and eastern regions. Increased chance of low precipitation in
Prairie Provinces.

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CanSIPS Forecasts: July, Aug, Sept
Above-normal temperatures possible for most of Canada
No precipitation trends evident

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Other models
We make visual
assessments of
other models’
output.
These are
temperature plots,
but precipitation is
also evaluated

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2018 Seasonal Prediction
NRCan-CFS Model Predictions
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NRCan-CFS Seasonal Prediction -- New
More fully automated – less chance of failed runs
Classification of anomalies: shows below average and more
distinct classes
New summary map content: areas may use visual assessment
of other models’ predictions
• Included in NASFAO but not CWFIS yet

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for May
Anomaly
Predicted values normalized against average weather
NASFAO
BNs
The “newer look” maps feature areas
with expected below normal fire risk.

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for June
Anomaly
Predicted values normalized against average weather
NASFAO
BNs

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for July
Anomaly
Predicted values normalized against average weather
NASFAO
BNs

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NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for August
Anomaly
Predicted values normalized against average weather
BNs

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Temperature Precipitation
Cranbrook, BC
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https://www.ndstudies.gov
Cranbrook: positive SSR trend mostly dependant on forecast
low rainfall

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Temperature Precipitation
Fort St. John, BC
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https://www.ndstudies.gov
Fort St John: Warm temperatures probable by summer, hint
rainfall may be lacking

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Temperature Precipitation
Fort Simpson, NT
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https://www.ndstudies.gov
Fort Simpson: On the edge of our higher risk area this summer

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Temperature Precipitation
The Pas, MB
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https://www.ndstudies.gov
The Pas: CM4 temperature trend, probable low rainfall driving
trend in MB in spring/summer

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Temperature Precipitation
Sioux Lookout, ON
Sioux Lookout forecasts are for warm temperatures, dry, and
positive severity rating trend
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https://www.ndstudies.gov

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Temperature Precipitation
Wabush Lake, NF
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https://www.ndstudies.gov
Wabush Lake: May be warmer than normal, but forecast
precipitation looks adequate

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What’s up with the large temperature departure on
one ensemble element?
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Notes
Forecast temperature higher in many places in May
run than April’s
Does positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation reduce
spring rain in southwestern Canada?

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NRCan-CFS Seasonal Prediction– Future?
One more step needed to refine anomaly map classes
Add software to CWFIS architecture
Better snowmelt estimate
Understand ensemble members and apparent biases
Input from other climate models
Reconcile CWFIS and NASFAO presentation methods
Incorporate provincial methodologies
Assessment of model performance

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Watch for …
New forecasts done in the first week of each month
New anomaly class scheme
Daily conditions on the CWFIS
and/or provincial fire weather
web sites

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Questions?
Contact:
Richard Carr
Fire Research Analyst
Natural Resources Canada –
Canadian Forest Service
Richard.Carr@canada.ca
5320 122 Street NW
Edmonton, AB, Canada
T6H 3S5
780-435-7313
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