1. FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR
JAMAICA
THE ANSWERS TO THOSE 3
QUESTIONS YOU HAVE ALWAYS
WANTED TO ASK ABOUT CLIMATE
& JAMAICA BUT NEVER GOT A
CHANCE TO!

2. Climate Answers...
YES
NO
MAYBE

3. Is our climate really changing?
Temperatures are
increasing
CSGM
(2013)
Both airport
stations show a
rising trend in
mean
temperature ~
0.1 oC/decade.
Consistent with
the global rise.
Jones et al (2015
submitted)
YES
NO
MAYBE

4. Temperatures are
increasing
A rising trend in mean
temperature ~ 0.1
oC/decade.
Warm days have steadily
increased (~22 days since
1960)
Warm nights have steadily
increased (~21 days since
1960)
Cold nights and days have
decreased (~14 fewer cold
nights since 1960)
Cool nights
Warm nights
Warm days
Stephenson et al (2014)
YES
NO
MAYBE
Is our climate really changing?

5. Temperatures are
increasing
Rainfall very
variable
1
3
2
3
4
Walters (2015)
1 2
3 4
No particular long term
trend
Dominated by interannual
and decadal variability
Increased short term
variability in near term
YES
NO
MAYBE
Is our climate really changing?

6. Temperatures are
increasing
Rainfall very
variable
Stephenson et al (2014)
Total rainfall
Intense rainfall
1961-2010 1986-2010
• Trends in the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall events i.e. a
noticeable shift in the ‘character’ of regional rainfall.
• Whereas an overall drying or wetter trend is not evident, the number of
dry days between rain events is increasing, and when rain occurs it tends
to be heavier.
YES
NO
MAYBE
Is our climate really changing?

7. Temperatures are
increasing
Rainfall more
variable
1980-1999 2000-2012
More storms
and hurricanes
With respect to severe flooding
events: the last 20 years were
49% more active (1.55 events/yr)
than the last 40 years (0.9
events/yr).
Burgess et al. (2015)
Is our climate really changing?
YES
NO
MAYBE

8. Temperatures are
increasing
Rainfall more
variable
More storms
and hurricanes
‘…Caribbean’s rate of sea
level rise appears to follow
the global mean.’
Sea levels
are rising
Torres & Tsimplis (2013)
Is our climate really changing?
YES
NO
MAYBE

9. Models Scenarios or
Storylines of
future global
development
Future Climate
Temperature
Rainfall
Extremes
Sea Level Rise
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?
YES
NO
MAYBE

10. Temperatures will
continue to increase
MeanTempsWarmDaysCoolNights • Between 1 and
3.5oC by end of
century.
• Warming exceeds
historical
variability
• 30-98% of days
annually will be
considered ‘hot’ by
by the 2090s
• Only 2% ‘cool’ by
the 2080s
McSweeney et al. (2008)
Present Future
By mid 2020s-2030 every year (in the mean) will be warmer than
hottest year felt to date. CLIMATE DEPARTURE
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?
YES
NO
MAYBE

11. Temperatures still
increasing
Taylor, Mandal et al. (2015 in preparation)
Variable +
Drying trend
W C E
McSweeney et al. (2008)
wetter
drier
Annual rain decrease by up to 55%. Largest reduction between May and December. A
reduction by 7-8% in the length of the rainy season and an increase of 6-8% of the length of the
dry season.
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?
YES
NO
MAYBE

12. Temperatures still
increasing
Centella et al. (2015 in preparation)
Variable +
Drying trend
Present Future Present Future
Moderate Drought Severe Drought Extreme Drought
Model 1 Model 2
YES
NO
MAYBE
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

13. Temperatures still
increasing
Bender et al. (2010)
Variable +
Drying trend
Number of simulated
storms remains the same
but more intense, with
higher rainfall rates and
increased maximum
winds.
More intense
extremes
YES
NO
MAYBE
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

14. Temperatures still
increasing
Variable +
Drying trend
More intense
extremes
Jamaica
Present climate 100 year 24 hour
precipitation depths will become
the 42 and 57 year RP events by
2100 for NMIA and SIA
respectively.
Flood risks of deaths and
damages are expected to increase
11% and 9% respectively to ~4.4
persons per annum and JMD9.2
billion (USD105.2) in 2010 dollars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Deathsanddamages,JMDbillions(2010
value)
Probability of exceedance
Deaths-present climate
Deaths-future climate
Damages-present climate
Damages-future climate
4.0
8.3
4.7
4.1
5.2
4.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Deaths Damages
Deaths(#persons)anddamagesEAD,inJMS
billions
Present-
observed
Present-
validation
Future,
2100
Burgess et al.
(2015)
YES
NO
MAYBE
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

15. Temperatures still
increasing
Variable +
Drying trend
More intense
extremes
Even higher
sea levels
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?
YES
NO
MAYBE

16. Temperatures still
increasing
Variable +
Drying trend
More intense
extremes
Even higher
sea levels
Impacts from a 2m SLR on
Jamaica
1. Land area lost (1% of
Jamaica).
2. People displaced (1%
Jamaica).
3. Damage or loss to power
plants (20% in Jamaica)
4. Tourism resorts damaged
or lost (18% Jamaica).
5. Loss or damage of
airports (60% Jamaica).
6. Loss of roads (2%
Jamaica).
7. Loss or damage to port
structures (100%
Jamaica)
- UNDP/CARIBSAVE
(2010)
Will things soon return to ‘normal’?
YES
NO
MAYBE

17. Do we have a viable future?
YES
NO
MAYBE

18. Suitability Maps
Ginger
2030s
2050s
CIAT (2011)
27% less suitable
Current(AP Photo/Collin Reid)
Expansion of vulnerability
Increased Exposure
Do we have a viable future?
YES
NO
MAYBE

19. Diminishing capacity to cope
EVENT
Jamaica
Year Category Impact
(% GDP)
Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 0.8
May/June Flood Rains 2002 0.7
Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.02
Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 8.0
Hurricanes Dennis &
Emily
2005 4 1.2
Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 0.7
Hurricane Dean 2007 4 3.4
Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 2.0
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 1.9
Hurricane Sandy 2012 1 0.9
The capacity of
the Caribbean to
cope with climate
impacts is being
challenged, not
just by the
magnitude of the
climatic events but
also by the
increasingly
recurrent nature of
the threats.
Planning Institute of Jamaica
Expansion of vulnerability
Increased Exposure
Do we have a viable future?
YES
NO
MAYBE

20. The Caribbean’s
annual cost of
inaction will be
US$22 billion
annually (10%) by
2050 and $46
billion (22%) by
2100.
Percentages with respect
to the Caribbean economy
in 2004.
Country 2025 2050 2075 2100
Anguilla 10.4 20.7 31.1 41.4
Antigua & Barbuda 12.2 25.8 41.0 58.4
The Bahamas 6.6 13.9 22.2 31.7
Barbados 6.9 13.9 20.8 27.7
Cuba 6.1 12.5 19.4 26.8
Dominica 16.3 34.3 54.4 77.3
Dominican Republic 9.7 19.6 29.8 40.3
Grenada 21.3 46.2 75.8 111.5
Haiti 30.5 61.2 92.1 123.2
Jamaica 13.9 27.9 42.3 56.9
Martinique 1.9 3.8 5.9 8.1
Puerto Rico 1.4 2.8 4.4 6.0
St. Lucia 12.1 24.3 36.6 49.1
Trinidad & Tobago 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0
Turks & Caicos 19.0 37.9 56.9 75.9
TOTAL Caribbean 5.0% 10.3% 15.9% 21.7%
Bueno et al. 2008
YES
NO
MAYBE
Do we have a viable future?
Diminishing capacity to cope
Expansion of vulnerability
Increased Exposure

21. A National Strategy/Plan for Action
NowNational plan guided by sector plans
Mitigation
‘…efforts to reduce
the amount of
greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, either
by reducing them at
source or by creating
sinks for the gases.’
In Jamaica’s Climate Policy mitigation efforts centre on
three sectors: Energy, Waste, Forestry/Agriculture
Do we have a viable future?
Adaptation
‘…recognizes the
inevitability of present and
upcoming change and
advocates pursuing
options to facilitate
resilience and
sustainability in spite of
the changed climate’
Education
“…providing
information and
engendering
behavioural
change’’
In developing a Comprehensive Adaptation Plan
* Identify Sensitivities * Determine what changes due to changing
climate
* Identify Priorities * Identify actions to pursue
Of all sector stakeholders – persons
directly and indirectly involved, public at
large, etc.
YES
NO
MAYBE

22. Climate Answers…
YES
NO
MAYBE
Our climate is really changing!
Things may not be ‘normal’ any time soon!
There is hope but we have to act now!
Thank
you