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How wireless is changing the world
May 18th 2016
Bob Tarzey
Analyst and Director
Quocirca Ltd
© Quocirca 2016
Wireless drivers
People
on the
move
Internet
of
Things
Wearables
Easy LANs
Home
networks
Café society
Guests
Mobile
devices
© Quocirca 2016
Selective history of wireless computing
1960 1980 20001970 1990 20202010
Bell Labs
first cell
phones
Univ.
Hawaii
wireless
computer
network
FCC permits
public cell
phones
19.2 KBPS
mobile data
links
Cellular
digital packet
data 19.2
KBPS
Wireless
LANs 1-2
MBPS
Wireless
Andrew
campus wide
network at
Carnegie
Mellon
IEEE
802.11
Wi-Fi
First
commercial
802.11 AP
from Aruba
Wi-Fi chip
sets
LPWA
Nokia
launches
public mobile
network in
Finland
802.11ac
2G 3G 4G/LTE1G 5G
IEEE
802.16
WiMAX
© Quocirca 2016
Approximate maximum throughput (download)
Maximums are rarely
achieve especially with
cellular
Only with 3*3 streams
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
MBPS
802.11ac Wave 2 > 5MBPS
© Quocirca 2016
The bad boys of radio
Shadowing
Reflection
• Multi-path
• Scattering
Interference
Diffraction
Atmospheric refraction
After Dr. Alex Hills
© Quocirca 2016
Variables
Channels
Power
Frequencies
Licences
Ownership
© Quocirca 2016
More jargon
• Wi Fi modes:
– Infrastructure (via access points)
– Ad hoc (peer to peer), Wi-Fi Direct
• Spread spectrum
• Handoff
– AP to AP
– Wi Fi to cellular (offload)
• Load balancing
• Carrier sense multiple access with collision
avoidance
• Cellular beacons
• Dynamic configuration…..
© Quocirca 2016
Wireless new wave
• Personal area/near field
– Bluetooth/Bluetooth LE/Smart
– ZigBee
– NFC
– Google Thread (household)
• Low Power/Wide Area (LPWA)
– LoRa Alliance - LoRa WAN
– Weightless-N/W
– Thread
– NarrowBand IOT
– Sigfox
– Etc.
© Quocirca 2016
Network variety for supporting IoT deployments
17%
21%
27%
36%
49%
55%
22%
22%
18%
23%
23%
26%
28%
29%
31%
20%
14%
10%
33%
28%
24%
21%
14%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
LoRa WAN
Beacons
Bluetooth LE
Proprietary wireless
SP mobile networks
Standard Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11)
Up take of various network types
Using now Will use soon
Not considered See no need/don't know
© Quocirca 2016
More IoT Considerations
• Scale
– Wearables
– Buildings
– Cities
– National
– Space
• Existing versus new things
• Consumer-facing versus internal
• Static versus mobile deployments
• Planned versus ad hoc
© Quocirca 2016
Industry views on impact of IoT
20%
25%
25%
50%
65%
65%
50%
50%
35%
25%
15%
25%
25%
15%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other commercial
Financial services
Manufacturing
Retail
Transport
View on IoT
Major Expectant Sceptics
© Quocirca 2016
Ad hoc arrival of IoT devices
introduced by users
11%
20%
35%
24%
61%
73%
60%
66%
28%
7%
5%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sceptics
Expectant
Major
Overall
ViewonIoT
Already happening Likely Unliklely/don't know
© Quocirca 2016
Potential number of devices involved over the
next 12 months by view on IoT
7%
8%
6%
6%
4%
6%
5%
17%
7%
27%
16%
22%
29%
35%
30%
33%
42%
24%
34%
22%
11%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sceptics
Expectant
Major
Overall
ViewonIoT
Exstimated millions/thousands of devices
10M to 100M* 1M to 10M 100K to 1M
10K to 100K 1,000 to 10K < 1,000
© Quocirca 2016
Growing number of things (Gartner 2015)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2014 2015 2016 2020
Millionsofthings http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3165317
Consumer Business: Cross-Industry
Business: Vertical-Specific Overall
© Quocirca 2016
IoT security concerns
0.09
0.15
0.38
0.42
0.44
0.47
0.59
0.66
0.88
0.9
1.02
0 0.5 1
Open source hacker tools
Insecure devices delivered…
Devices recruited to botnets
Devices used as ingress points
Employee privacy
IoT firmware/APIs vulnerable
Ownership of the data
IoT business processes vulnerable
Regulatory controls
IoT expands attack surface
Customer privacy
Average score - max = 3
© Quocirca 2016
Wireless downsides
Security
Compliance
Over the top (for carriers)
Societal impacts (TV everywhere)
© Quocirca 2016
• Built in security
– 802.11i
• Protecting your network
– Employee devices
– External users
– Hackers
• Protecting your assets
– Employees on public networks
– Devices
– Data
Security
© Quocirca 2016
Protecting your network with NAC
• NAC = Network Access Control
• IEEE 802.1X agents or agentless?
• Known (managed), unknown and rogue devices
• Device health checks
– Software up to date
– Device security in place
– Logging services active
• Permit, limit or deny access
• maintain audit trails
© Quocirca 2016
Wi-Fi and protecting assets
• Data, devices and employees
• Policy-based access
– Network access type
– Hotspot providers
– Router types
– Location analysis
• Bring you own – devices/apps/services
• Technologies
– Agents and VPNs
– “Traditional” anti-malware
– Enterprise mobility management (EMM)
– Apps
– Isolation
© Quocirca 2016
Compliant Wi-Fi
Public Wi-Fi hotspots
• Copyright infringement/illegal activity
– UK Digital Economy Act 2010
• Data protection
– EU General Data Protection Regulation
• Data retention
– Data Retention Regulations (2009 EU Directive)
– UK Regulatory and Investigatory Powers Act
(RIPA)
Within business
• Compliant end-points
• Compliance reporting
• Employee “monitoring”
© Quocirca 2016
Deployment of security measures by
view on IoT
50%
44%
28%
17%
17%
22%
47%
33%
33%
29%
38%
36%
46%
43%
41%
30%
35%
46%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Regular scanning of devices
Mitigation of DoS attacks
Scanning device firmware
Pattern matching to identify
anomalous behaviour
Hub and spoke IoT
Closed IP networks (intranet of
things)
% saying already in place
Major
Expecta
nt
© Quocirca 2016
The future summarised
• ~65M hotspots in 2015; over 400M predicted
by 2020
• 1.7B WiFi user devices by 2020 (3 x cellular)
• 20B things by 2020
• Wi Fi is now a utility expectation – and
therefore not a differentiator
• 802.11ac WAVE-2 (with MU-MIMO)
• More WiFi initiatives:
– More cellular offload > HetNet
– Homespots/community hotspots
• Augmented reality 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
802.11n(2007)
WiMAX(2011)
5G(2020?)
802.11ac(2013)
802.11acWave2
MBPS
© Quocirca 2016
Thank you
– Bob Tarzey
– Service Director, Quocirca
– Bob.Tarzey@Quocirca.com
– +44 7900 275517

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How Wireless is Changing the World

  • 1. Sponsor logo IT Untethered How wireless is changing the world May 18th 2016 Bob Tarzey Analyst and Director Quocirca Ltd
  • 2. © Quocirca 2016 Wireless drivers People on the move Internet of Things Wearables Easy LANs Home networks Café society Guests Mobile devices
  • 3. © Quocirca 2016 Selective history of wireless computing 1960 1980 20001970 1990 20202010 Bell Labs first cell phones Univ. Hawaii wireless computer network FCC permits public cell phones 19.2 KBPS mobile data links Cellular digital packet data 19.2 KBPS Wireless LANs 1-2 MBPS Wireless Andrew campus wide network at Carnegie Mellon IEEE 802.11 Wi-Fi First commercial 802.11 AP from Aruba Wi-Fi chip sets LPWA Nokia launches public mobile network in Finland 802.11ac 2G 3G 4G/LTE1G 5G IEEE 802.16 WiMAX
  • 4. © Quocirca 2016 Approximate maximum throughput (download) Maximums are rarely achieve especially with cellular Only with 3*3 streams 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 MBPS 802.11ac Wave 2 > 5MBPS
  • 5. © Quocirca 2016 The bad boys of radio Shadowing Reflection • Multi-path • Scattering Interference Diffraction Atmospheric refraction After Dr. Alex Hills
  • 7. © Quocirca 2016 More jargon • Wi Fi modes: – Infrastructure (via access points) – Ad hoc (peer to peer), Wi-Fi Direct • Spread spectrum • Handoff – AP to AP – Wi Fi to cellular (offload) • Load balancing • Carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance • Cellular beacons • Dynamic configuration…..
  • 8. © Quocirca 2016 Wireless new wave • Personal area/near field – Bluetooth/Bluetooth LE/Smart – ZigBee – NFC – Google Thread (household) • Low Power/Wide Area (LPWA) – LoRa Alliance - LoRa WAN – Weightless-N/W – Thread – NarrowBand IOT – Sigfox – Etc.
  • 9. © Quocirca 2016 Network variety for supporting IoT deployments 17% 21% 27% 36% 49% 55% 22% 22% 18% 23% 23% 26% 28% 29% 31% 20% 14% 10% 33% 28% 24% 21% 14% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% LoRa WAN Beacons Bluetooth LE Proprietary wireless SP mobile networks Standard Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11) Up take of various network types Using now Will use soon Not considered See no need/don't know
  • 10. © Quocirca 2016 More IoT Considerations • Scale – Wearables – Buildings – Cities – National – Space • Existing versus new things • Consumer-facing versus internal • Static versus mobile deployments • Planned versus ad hoc
  • 11. © Quocirca 2016 Industry views on impact of IoT 20% 25% 25% 50% 65% 65% 50% 50% 35% 25% 15% 25% 25% 15% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Other commercial Financial services Manufacturing Retail Transport View on IoT Major Expectant Sceptics
  • 12. © Quocirca 2016 Ad hoc arrival of IoT devices introduced by users 11% 20% 35% 24% 61% 73% 60% 66% 28% 7% 5% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sceptics Expectant Major Overall ViewonIoT Already happening Likely Unliklely/don't know
  • 13. © Quocirca 2016 Potential number of devices involved over the next 12 months by view on IoT 7% 8% 6% 6% 4% 6% 5% 17% 7% 27% 16% 22% 29% 35% 30% 33% 42% 24% 34% 22% 11% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sceptics Expectant Major Overall ViewonIoT Exstimated millions/thousands of devices 10M to 100M* 1M to 10M 100K to 1M 10K to 100K 1,000 to 10K < 1,000
  • 14. © Quocirca 2016 Growing number of things (Gartner 2015) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2014 2015 2016 2020 Millionsofthings http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3165317 Consumer Business: Cross-Industry Business: Vertical-Specific Overall
  • 15. © Quocirca 2016 IoT security concerns 0.09 0.15 0.38 0.42 0.44 0.47 0.59 0.66 0.88 0.9 1.02 0 0.5 1 Open source hacker tools Insecure devices delivered… Devices recruited to botnets Devices used as ingress points Employee privacy IoT firmware/APIs vulnerable Ownership of the data IoT business processes vulnerable Regulatory controls IoT expands attack surface Customer privacy Average score - max = 3
  • 16. © Quocirca 2016 Wireless downsides Security Compliance Over the top (for carriers) Societal impacts (TV everywhere)
  • 17. © Quocirca 2016 • Built in security – 802.11i • Protecting your network – Employee devices – External users – Hackers • Protecting your assets – Employees on public networks – Devices – Data Security
  • 18. © Quocirca 2016 Protecting your network with NAC • NAC = Network Access Control • IEEE 802.1X agents or agentless? • Known (managed), unknown and rogue devices • Device health checks – Software up to date – Device security in place – Logging services active • Permit, limit or deny access • maintain audit trails
  • 19. © Quocirca 2016 Wi-Fi and protecting assets • Data, devices and employees • Policy-based access – Network access type – Hotspot providers – Router types – Location analysis • Bring you own – devices/apps/services • Technologies – Agents and VPNs – “Traditional” anti-malware – Enterprise mobility management (EMM) – Apps – Isolation
  • 20. © Quocirca 2016 Compliant Wi-Fi Public Wi-Fi hotspots • Copyright infringement/illegal activity – UK Digital Economy Act 2010 • Data protection – EU General Data Protection Regulation • Data retention – Data Retention Regulations (2009 EU Directive) – UK Regulatory and Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA) Within business • Compliant end-points • Compliance reporting • Employee “monitoring”
  • 21. © Quocirca 2016 Deployment of security measures by view on IoT 50% 44% 28% 17% 17% 22% 47% 33% 33% 29% 38% 36% 46% 43% 41% 30% 35% 46% 0% 20% 40% 60% Regular scanning of devices Mitigation of DoS attacks Scanning device firmware Pattern matching to identify anomalous behaviour Hub and spoke IoT Closed IP networks (intranet of things) % saying already in place Major Expecta nt
  • 22. © Quocirca 2016 The future summarised • ~65M hotspots in 2015; over 400M predicted by 2020 • 1.7B WiFi user devices by 2020 (3 x cellular) • 20B things by 2020 • Wi Fi is now a utility expectation – and therefore not a differentiator • 802.11ac WAVE-2 (with MU-MIMO) • More WiFi initiatives: – More cellular offload > HetNet – Homespots/community hotspots • Augmented reality 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 802.11n(2007) WiMAX(2011) 5G(2020?) 802.11ac(2013) 802.11acWave2 MBPS
  • 23. © Quocirca 2016 Thank you – Bob Tarzey – Service Director, Quocirca – Bob.Tarzey@Quocirca.com – +44 7900 275517