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Maribel Lopez May 5


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Maribel Lopez May 5

  1. 1. MOBILITY AND THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE <ul><li>Maribel D. Lopez </li></ul><ul><li>Lopez Research </li></ul><ul><li>May 5, 2009 </li></ul>
  2. 2. Mobility by the numbers <ul><li>Nokia solid 472M cell phones in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>China and India lead the world in mobile subs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>India added 13 M subs in Feb. 09 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China Mobile adds an average 6.3M subs per month </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4B WW mobile subscribers at the end of ’08 </li></ul><ul><li>Household penetration: US 88%, Italy 145%, Hong Kong 168% </li></ul><ul><li>Enterprise is also growing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>58% penetration of WLAN in large enterprises </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>32% mobile data penetration in NA </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Wireless data ARPU has exceeded 20% for most carriers with the notable exception of India </li></ul>
  3. 3. Elements come together to provide a new world of mobility <ul><li>Carriers build better nets </li></ul><ul><li>Device manufacturers provide a innovative foundations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accelerometers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cameras </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved battery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Touch screens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Video </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Apple illustrates a shift in mobility <ul><li>Innovation by improving the basics </li></ul><ul><li>A better storefront </li></ul><ul><li>A reasonable revenue share model </li></ul><ul><li>25,000 Apps </li></ul><ul><li>Over 1 billion app downloads </li></ul>
  5. 5. And the best reason to focus on mobility – consumers love their devices
  6. 6. The Evolution of Mobility CONNECT SEAMLESSLY Time CONNECT BROADLY GET CONNECTED 1990 2013+ 2010
  7. 7. Web 1.0 and Mobile 1.0 focused on getting connected
  8. 8. Mobile 2.0 focuses on connecting seamlessly across networks >10km Broadcast DVB, DAB Mobile 802.11 hotspots WiMAX 0.1-10km 10-100m Wi-Fi Mobile Zigbee 1-10m Bluetooth UWB, RFID <1m Wires USB, Firewire, Powerline telephone NFC IR
  9. 9. Technologies will vary by location but become transparent to the use Building Seamless Connectivity across devices and networks Hotel ADSL / Ethernet Wi-Fi ISDN/PSTN RFID, Sensors At home ADSL/Ethernet PSTN Wi_Fi, Zigbee 3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA On the road 3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA WiMAX RFID Sensors Office LAN/Ethernet Wi-Fi 3G/GPRS EDGE/HSDPA WiMAX Homeworkers LAN/Ethernet 3G/GPRS (4G) EDGE/HSDPA PSTN/ISDN Public places Wi-Fi 3G/GPRS/EDGE/HSDPA PSTN/ISDN At the venue Wi-Fi, 3G+ WiMAX
  10. 10. But connecting seamlessly moves beyond integrating access Category Get Connected Connect Seamlessly # of Networks Multiple disparate networks Interconnected wired and wireless networks Types of devices Few (Laptops and cell phones ) Many (Gaming consoles, ereaders, netbooks) # of devices per individual 1-3 3+ Communications features Voice and location on cell phones Multi-device comm.-enablement (voice, video, presence and location) Market focus Connectivity Application and services
  11. 11. Phase 3: Connect broadly means people to things and things to things Source: 4G OWA meeting
  12. 12. The Future: The Semantic Web
  13. 13. Device proliferation creates opportunities and challenges for software vendors
  14. 14. No one OS to rule them all….in fact there are at least 8
  15. 15. Distribution and licensing changes <ul><li>New distribution channels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Competition improves the carrier channel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales are global not just local </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue models differ by channel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New licensing models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Per device to per user </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But users devices can be uniquely identified </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. The path ahead <ul><li>Build strategies that take into account the expected </li></ul><ul><li>Plan to design in multiple OSs but prioritize </li></ul><ul><li>Create a business development team to support new app stores </li></ul><ul><li>Define a cloud strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Design software to support both on-device and in-cloud access </li></ul>
  17. 17. Thank you <ul><li>Maribel Lopez </li></ul><ul><li>Lopez Research </li></ul><ul><li>+1 617 872 8631 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: MaribelLopez </li></ul>