Household indebtedness and macroprudential supervision

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The director general of the FIN-FSA opened a conference on household indebtedness and macroprudential supervision. Her three main messages were: 1) Fundamental flaws have emerged in consumer protection. 2) Household indebtedness is at record levels and it is unclear if this trend can continue. 3) The current macroprudential toolkit is not fit for its purpose. She presented statistics showing over 380,000 people have bad credit records, household debt has more than doubled over 20 years, and construction is a cyclical sector. The director general concluded that consumer loan growth has unwanted side effects, household indebtedness has sharply risen, and the current macroprudential toolkit requires scrutiny and impact analysis to be

Economy & Finance

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Opening remarks:
Household indebtedness and
macroprudential supervision
Ms Anneli Tuominen, Director General, FIN-FSA

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Welcome to the conference:
My three main messages
1. Fundamental flaws in consumer protection have emerged
2. Household indebtedness at record levels – can the trend continue?
3. Our current macro prudential toolkit is not fit for purpose

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
More than 380 000 people have a bad credit record
304,9
318,4 326,6
344,2
360,3 366,9 369,9 374,2 374,2 381,7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
9M/2009 9M/2010 9M/2011 9M/2012 9M/2013 9M/2014 9M/2015 9M/2016 9M/2017 9M/2018
1000 persons
Sources: Asiakastieto + UC.
Persons with payment defaults 2009 – 2018

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Household indebtedness has more than
doubled over the last 20 years
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Statistics Finland.
Household debt in relation to disposable income
2003 – 2018
Other loans HH's share of housing corporation loans
Consumer credit Loans for house purchases

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Construction has been, is and will be a cyclical sector
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Index 2010Q1=100
Source, Statistics FInland, national accounts
GDP and construction 1990 - 2018
GDP volume in Finland, 2010Q1=100 Construction volume in Finland, 2010Q1=100

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Households’ share of housing
corporation debt has increased rapidly
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sources: Statistics Finland and Bank of Finland.
Annual percentage changes of household loans 2004 – 2018
HH's share of housing corporation loans Consumer credit from CI's
Loans for house purchases

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
During booms, asset prices tend to increase
faster than income
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1981Q1=100
Sources: Statistics Finland and Bank of Finland.
House prices, household income and
their relationship 1981 – 2018
Nominal house prices 1981Q1=100
Wages and salary earnings, 1981Q1=100
House prices relative to wage and salary earnings

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Effectiveness and operability of tools
𝐿𝐿𝑜𝑜𝑎𝑎𝑛𝑛 𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑜𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑡𝑡+ 𝑌𝑌𝐿𝐿+𝑀𝑀𝐸𝐸𝐿𝐿−𝑂𝑂𝐼𝐼𝑇𝑇
𝐸𝐸𝐴𝐴𝑃𝑃+𝑌𝑌𝐿𝐿+𝑀𝑀𝑂𝑂𝐴𝐴𝐽𝐽+ 𝑂𝑂𝑇𝑇+𝑀𝑀𝑅𝑅+𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑃𝑃−𝐴𝐴𝑃𝑃+𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇
LTC Formula:

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Impact assessments are crucial
Macroprudential policy circle

Finlandia Hall 28 Nov 2018
Conclusion
1. Consumer loan growth has unwanted side effects
• Consumer protection in the forefront
• Should FIN-FSA’s mandate be extended?
2. Household indebtedness has more than doubled in the past
20 years
• Low interest rate environment combined with longer maturities
• Households’ preparedness to higher rates is a question mark
3. The current macroprudential toolkit under scrutiny
• Problems both in effectiveness and operability
• New policy area – thorough impact analysis is required

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