Governor Olli Rehn Bank of Finland Keynote speech, The National Audit Office of Finland (NAOF)  Helsinki, 28 November 2019

1. Bank of Finland
Fiscal Statistics and Fiscal Rules:
Some Lessons from Recent Years
Building Trust - the Role of Supreme Audit Institutions
in Ensuring the Reliability of Fiscal Data
Helsinki, 28 November 2019
Governor Olli Rehn

2. Today’s topics
• Fiscal statistics
• Greek data before 2010
• Powers of Eurostat
• Fiscal rules
• Simplicity, transparency, predictability
• Expenditure rule
• We need rules that reinforce countercyclical policy and fiscal
sustainability – together with reliable fiscal data
28.11.2019

3. Fiscal deficit in the euro area, 2000-2020
28.11.2019 3
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Government deficit in euro area, % of GDP
Sources: European Commission and Macrobond.
*Shadowed area indicates forecasts.

4. 28.11.2019 4

5. bof.fi
Thank you!
28.11.20195

6. GDP and its growth in the euro area, 2008-2021
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Euro area real GDP ECB forecast
Index, 2008Q1 = 100
Euro area, changing composition. Figures next to the line are annual growth rates.
Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Macrobond.
0.4
-4.4
2.1
1.6 -0.9 -0.3 1.4
2.1
1.9
2.5
1.9 1.1
1.2
1.4
28.11.2019 6

7. Rebalancing of the Eurozone economy, 2007-20
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Surplus countries* (in 2008) Deficit countries** (in 2008) Euro area
Current account balance, % of GDP
* Surplus countries: AT, BE, DE, FI, NL
** Deficit countries: FR, IT, ES, PT, IE, GR
Sources: European Commission and Macrobond.
Forecast for
2019 - 2020
28.11.2019 7