This research examines the determinants of home heating fuels in relation to gas connection and consumption, focusing on spatial, socio-demographic, and building characteristics. Key findings indicate that gas connection probability decreases with increased distance from the network, while oil connection probability increases over similar distances. The study concludes that building age, type, and ownership status significantly impact heating fuel consumption patterns.

1. Home heating fuels: spatial, socio-demographic
and building determinants
Grilli G., Tovar Reaños M., Curtis J.
gianluca.grilli@esri.ie
ESRI-UCC-MaREI energy research: climate action conference
17th May 2019, Dublin

2. Background Methods Results
Acknowledgements
This research is part of the ESRI - EPRC reserach program
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3. Background Methods Results
Background
Climate targets: -80% emissions by 2050
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4. Background Methods Results
Background
Climate targets: -80% emissions by 2050
Investigate factor affecting gas connection
Investigate factor affecting consumption
Provide a profile of connected vs non-connected buildings
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5. Background Methods Results
Data
Source: CSO + GNI
domestic premises (exc. apartments)
Subset of all existing buildings:
Distance from network ≤ 30m
Only Buildings available in both 2011 and 2016
Property-specific variables
Socio-demographics
Approx. 556,000 Obs
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6. Background Methods Results
Data
Table: Main fuel type
Mean st. dev Min Max
Gas 0.766 0.424 0 1
Oil 0.170 0.376 0 1
Solid fuels 0.038 0.190 0 1
Electricity 0.027 0.161 0 1
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7. Background Methods Results
Data
Table: Distance from Network
Mean st. dev Min Max
≤ 15m 0.548 0.498 0 1
15 − 20m 0.311 0.463 0 1
20 − 30m 0.141 0.348 0 1
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8. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
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9. Background Methods Results
Estimation methods
Gas connection:
Multinomial logit model
Connection as a function of:
distance
house characteristics
personal variables
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10. Background Methods Results
Estimation methods
Gas connection:
Multinomial logit model
Connection as a function of:
distance
house characteristics
personal variables
Consumption:
Ordered probit model
Heckman Correction:
first stage: Binary probit
for connection
Second stage: ordered
probit model
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11. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas connection
Table: Probability of Gas connection related to network distance
Distance Prob. Of gas connection
≤ 15m (ref. level)
15 − 20m -6%
20 − 30m -12.70%
The cost of connection increases with distance
Table: Probability of Oil connection
Distance Prob. Of oil connection
≤ 15m (ref. level)
15 − 20m 5.60%
20 − 30m 10.40%
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12. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas connection
Table: House Ownership and house type
Owneship Prob. Of gas connection
owner with mortgage (ref.level)
outright owner 7.50%
Rent (from private) -3.70%
Rent (from public) 7%
House type:
Detached houses (ref. level)
Semi-detached 4%
Terraced houses 5.70%
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13. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
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14. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
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15. Background Methods Results
Results - Gas Consumption
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16. Background Methods Results
Concluding Remarks
Gas connection affected by:
Distance (at increasing rates)
Peak for 2001–2010 buildings
after 2010: electricity
Owners: with mortgage and
social housing
House type: Semi-detached
houses and terraced houses
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17. Background Methods Results
Concluding Remarks
Gas connection affected by:
Distance (at increasing rates)
Peak for 2001–2010 buildings
after 2010: electricity
Owners: with mortgage and
social housing
House type: Semi-detached
houses and terraced houses
Consumption affected by:
Age of buildings (≈ Energy
efficiency)
The house type
Private owners consume
more
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18. Background Methods Results
Thank you for your attention
Questions?
gianluca.grilli@esri.ie
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