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This document summarizes several studies on the economic impact of different fiscal solutions for Alaska's budget deficit. The 2016 ISER study examined the impact of options like spending cuts, PFD cuts, and tax increases on income, jobs, distribution across income levels, and regions of Alaska. It found that PFD cuts would have the largest adverse impact on the economy and families. Subsequent ISER studies reinforced that PFDs significantly reduce poverty. A 2019 study argued for reduced spending and analyzed revenue options using static and dynamic models. A 2020 Tax Foundation study argued that certain taxes like sales taxes could have lower economic impact than others, but it provided limited analysis. The presentation concludes by advocating for a flat tax as the best option to

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The document provides a summary of Alaska's 2020 oil production forecast. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production in 2020, leading to deferred maintenance and interrupted drilling. The forecast expects average 2021 production of 470,000 barrels per day, within the range of 413,000 to 526,000 barrels per day. Currently producing fields will remain the backbone of production, while future projects under development or evaluation could help offset declining output from mature fields over the long term. However, uncertainty increases in longer-term forecasts due to risks associated with new projects.

LegFin: Preliminary Overview of the Governor's FY22 Budget (1.8.2021)

The document provides a preliminary overview of Alaska's structural budget deficit and the Governor's FY2022 budget proposal. It notes that Alaska has faced nine consecutive years of budget deficits due to declining oil revenue. The Governor's budget reduces spending from the current law baseline through lower agency budgets and partial funding of items like the PFD. It draws funds from the ERA to fully pay the PFD but still faces a small deficit. The 10-year plan aims to balance the budget starting in FY2023 through dividend reductions, spending cuts, and new revenue.

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Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)

The document outlines key fiscal and economic deadlines and expirations for 2020 through 2026, including temporary extensions of appropriations, tax provisions, and entitlement programs. Key dates include the expiration of pandemic unemployment programs and various tax extenders at the end of 2020, debt limit suspension ending in July 2021, and trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and pensions anticipated to be exhausted between 2024-2031 based on Congressional Budget Office projections.

Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)

DOR Presentation to HFIN (10.2.2020)

The document provides an update on Alaska's tax credits and revenue projections from the Department of Revenue. It summarizes that the outlook is uncertain due to COVID-19 and volatility in oil prices and the economy. It also discusses the potential impacts of Ballot Measure 1, which would increase oil taxes but decrease producer profits and investments. The measure could more than double tax revenues from the North Slope at current oil prices according to estimates, but also increase uncertainty for producers. Contact information is provided for the Commissioner of Revenue and Chief Economist for any additional questions.

Leg finance presentation: FY21/22 Fiscal Update (10.02.2020)

This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and budget outlook for FY2021 and FY2022. For FY2021, it notes some budget issues like shortfalls in revenue for agencies due to COVID-19 and incomplete capital appropriations. For FY2022, it presents two potential budget scenarios based on current law (with a $3,100 PFD) and current policy (with a $1,000 PFD), finding deficits of $2.4 billion and $902.6 million respectively under 10/2/20 revenue projections. Key factors like fund balances, statewide appropriations, and agency operations are also outlined.

Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed

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