Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed
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A presentation to the Alaska Interior Republicans to review Alaska's current fiscal situation, where it is headed and the various options for dealing with the continued fiscal gap.
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The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses:
1) Projections of growing budget deficits and debt levels through 2029, with deficits averaging 4.4% of GDP and debt held by the public rising to 96% of GDP.
2) The economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, slower than recent years but still positive, with low unemployment and inflation.
3) Spending is projected to outpace revenue growth due to rising healthcare and interest costs, while tax cuts will increase deficits by $1.9 trillion from 2018-2028.
CBO’s 10-Year Budget and Economic Projections
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
The Budget Outlook for 2020 to 2030 in 13 Slides
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
295522066 160107-gunnar-knapp-an-introduction-to-alaska-fiscal-facts-and-choi...
Alaska faces a serious fiscal challenge due to falling oil revenues from low oil prices. The state is spending over twice as much as its revenues and paying the deficit by drawing down savings, which cannot be sustained. In coming years, Alaska will need to close the large gap between spending and revenues by making significant cuts to spending, enacting new revenues, and/or using earnings from the Permanent Fund. There are no easy choices, as major changes are needed to achieve a balanced budget.
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Testimony before HRES on South Central Gas
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation for AGC (11.30.2023).pdf
Presentation to the Associated General Contractors of Alaska Sustainable Budget Task Force on our views on achieving long-term fiscal sustainability.
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Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
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Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
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Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
The Economic Impact on Alaska of Various Fiscal Solutions (4.10.2021)
This document summarizes several studies on the economic impact of different fiscal solutions for Alaska's budget deficit. The 2016 ISER study examined the impact of options like spending cuts, PFD cuts, and tax increases on income, jobs, distribution across income levels, and regions of Alaska. It found that PFD cuts would have the largest adverse impact on the economy and families. Subsequent ISER studies reinforced that PFDs significantly reduce poverty. A 2019 study argued for reduced spending and analyzed revenue options using static and dynamic models. A 2020 Tax Foundation study argued that certain taxes like sales taxes could have lower economic impact than others, but it provided limited analysis. The presentation concludes by advocating for a flat tax as the best option to
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This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Legislative Finance Division: Alaska's Fiscal Position, Look Back & Projectio...
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
DNR Fall 2020 Production Forecast (1.27.2021)
The document provides a summary of Alaska's 2020 oil production forecast. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production in 2020, leading to deferred maintenance and interrupted drilling. The forecast expects average 2021 production of 470,000 barrels per day, within the range of 413,000 to 526,000 barrels per day. Currently producing fields will remain the backbone of production, while future projects under development or evaluation could help offset declining output from mature fields over the long term. However, uncertainty increases in longer-term forecasts due to risks associated with new projects.
LegFin: Preliminary Overview of the Governor's FY22 Budget (1.8.2021)
The document provides a preliminary overview of Alaska's structural budget deficit and the Governor's FY2022 budget proposal. It notes that Alaska has faced nine consecutive years of budget deficits due to declining oil revenue. The Governor's budget reduces spending from the current law baseline through lower agency budgets and partial funding of items like the PFD. It draws funds from the ERA to fully pay the PFD but still faces a small deficit. The 10-year plan aims to balance the budget starting in FY2023 through dividend reductions, spending cuts, and new revenue.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)
The document outlines key fiscal and economic deadlines and expirations for 2020 through 2026, including temporary extensions of appropriations, tax provisions, and entitlement programs. Key dates include the expiration of pandemic unemployment programs and various tax extenders at the end of 2020, debt limit suspension ending in July 2021, and trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and pensions anticipated to be exhausted between 2024-2031 based on Congressional Budget Office projections.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)
A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
Leg finance presentation: FY21/22 Fiscal Update (10.02.2020)
This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and budget outlook for FY2021 and FY2022. For FY2021, it notes some budget issues like shortfalls in revenue for agencies due to COVID-19 and incomplete capital appropriations. For FY2022, it presents two potential budget scenarios based on current law (with a $3,100 PFD) and current policy (with a $1,000 PFD), finding deficits of $2.4 billion and $902.6 million respectively under 10/2/20 revenue projections. Key factors like fund balances, statewide appropriations, and agency operations are also outlined.
COVID-19 RESPONSE FUNDING (4.21.2020)
An overview by the Dunleavy Administration of use of CARES Act and other federal funds allocated to the state for COVID-19 response.
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Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...
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HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...
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Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...
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Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)
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一比一原版美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学毕业证如何办理
原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学毕业证成绩单】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
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留信网认证的作用:
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2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
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- 1. Alaska’s Fiscal Situation: Presentation to: Alaska Interior Republicans May 15,2020 Where are we now ... … where are we headed … what are the options
- 2. The backdrop: oil price & production * We were facing large revenue shortfalls before * They have become much worse in the last few months * FY 21 oil price 40% lower than forecast even 6 mos ago (Dec ‘19)
- 3. Where are we now ... * While revs are falling (⬇ 34% from FY19) ... * … spending has declined only slightly (⬇ 6% from FY19).
- 4. Where are we now … * Even w/ rising PFD diversions, con’t reliance on savings draw * But: CBR effectively depleted by end of FY21
- 5. Where are we now … * “Rainy day” funds (SBR/CBR) depleted * Under Constitution, CBR draws are a loan
- 6. Where are we headed ... * Key point: FY21 is only the tip of the fiscal iceberg * Even capping spending at inflation, 10 yr deficit avg’s $1.63B/yr
- 7. What are the options ... * OMB FY21 10-year plan: - Spending cuts - PFD restructuring - Substitute revs * Scenario 5: “Balanced”
- 8. Two comments about PFD cuts ... “ The impact of the PFD cut falls almost exclusively on residents, and it is highly regressive, so it has the largest adverse impact on the economy per dollar of revenues raised.” -- Short-Run Economic Impact of Alaska Fiscal Options (May 2016) “ A cut in PFDs would be by far the costliest measure for Alaska families.” -- How Much Might Closing the State Budget Gap Cost Alaska Families? (Feb 2017)
- 9. Two comments about PFD cuts … * Regressive * FY21: Diverts 3.5% of AGI from private to public sector * .. but takes most from middle & lower income brackets
- 10. Questions