- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 7.53% gross and 6.34% net for 2016. Returns were supported by equities offsetting losses in municipal bonds.
- For the fourth quarter, returns were 0.83% gross and 0.26% net. The portfolio has outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Barclays Aggregate index on a year-to-date basis with lower volatility.
- The document discusses economic and market outlooks, noting expectations for modest US growth around 2-2.5% in 2017, potential for higher inflation and interest rates, and risks from a strong US dollar.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
In this special edition of Valuation Insights, we discuss some of the key valuation and compliance impacts that will likely result from Brexit. Specifically, we review the short-term and long-term economic implications, as well as compliance and regulatory considerations. We also highlight valuation issues, including how companies and investors determine cost of capital and measure risk in the current environment, and discuss implications for transfer pricing with respect to EU Directives. While all industries will be impacted by Brexit, in this issue we focus on the banking and financial services sectors, which stand to be the most heavily affected.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Fall 2016Duff & Phelps
Middle-market issuers were greeted by strong demand this quarter from mainstream credit sources as well as those seeking higher degrees of risk and return. Macroeconomic fundamentals continued to improve, though the focus remained on monetary policy. With an increasingly stark dichotomy of views at the Federal Reserve, volatility persisted in anticipation of clearer guidance on the pace and timing of rate hikes.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The Commerce Department reported housing starts fell 17.0% in February. The Fed noted industrial production rose 0.1% in February. The second estimate of 4Q 2014 real GDP put growth at 2.2% q/q saar, under the first estimate of 2.6%.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 320,000 in the week ending February 28, 2015. The four-week moving average was 304,750. The February employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% to 5.5%.
China’s factory activity showed some signs of stabilizing in June but still contracted for the
fourth straight month, according to a preliminary private survey, suggesting more stimulus
measures may be needed to support the world’s second-largest economy.
A comprehensive fiscal analysis of the policies put forward by presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It shows how each would affect the federal budget and national debt. See more at http://crfb.org/.
Visio Academy Eğitim&Koçluk&Danışmanlık Hizmetleri Şirket TanıtımımızVisio Academy
Kişisel Gelişim ve Kurumsal Danışmanlık Hizmetleriniz için www.visioacademy.com adresini ziyaret edebilir ve iletisim@visioacademy .com mail adresinden istek ve sorularınızı sorabilirsiniz.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Client Alert: Brexit - The Impact on Cost of CapitalDuff & Phelps
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether to leave or remain as member of the European Union (EU). Against prior poll prediction, 51.9% of U.K. voters were in favor of leaving the EU, while 48.1% voted to remain a member. This decision is popularly known in the financial press as “Brexit”.
To assist in this discussion, on July 12, 2016, Duff & Phelps held the second of its Brexit webinar series entitled “The Impact on Cost of Capital,” featuring a panel of world-renowned cost of capital experts. The webcast focused on the challenges of estimating the cost of capital from the perspectives of U.S., U.K., and Eurozone investors in a post-Brexit world.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
In this special edition of Valuation Insights, we discuss some of the key valuation and compliance impacts that will likely result from Brexit. Specifically, we review the short-term and long-term economic implications, as well as compliance and regulatory considerations. We also highlight valuation issues, including how companies and investors determine cost of capital and measure risk in the current environment, and discuss implications for transfer pricing with respect to EU Directives. While all industries will be impacted by Brexit, in this issue we focus on the banking and financial services sectors, which stand to be the most heavily affected.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Fall 2016Duff & Phelps
Middle-market issuers were greeted by strong demand this quarter from mainstream credit sources as well as those seeking higher degrees of risk and return. Macroeconomic fundamentals continued to improve, though the focus remained on monetary policy. With an increasingly stark dichotomy of views at the Federal Reserve, volatility persisted in anticipation of clearer guidance on the pace and timing of rate hikes.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The Commerce Department reported housing starts fell 17.0% in February. The Fed noted industrial production rose 0.1% in February. The second estimate of 4Q 2014 real GDP put growth at 2.2% q/q saar, under the first estimate of 2.6%.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 320,000 in the week ending February 28, 2015. The four-week moving average was 304,750. The February employment report stated nonfarm payrolls rose by 295,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% to 5.5%.
China’s factory activity showed some signs of stabilizing in June but still contracted for the
fourth straight month, according to a preliminary private survey, suggesting more stimulus
measures may be needed to support the world’s second-largest economy.
A comprehensive fiscal analysis of the policies put forward by presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It shows how each would affect the federal budget and national debt. See more at http://crfb.org/.
Visio Academy Eğitim&Koçluk&Danışmanlık Hizmetleri Şirket TanıtımımızVisio Academy
Kişisel Gelişim ve Kurumsal Danışmanlık Hizmetleriniz için www.visioacademy.com adresini ziyaret edebilir ve iletisim@visioacademy .com mail adresinden istek ve sorularınızı sorabilirsiniz.
Equatel Health™ - Our proprietary and complete EHR platform enables you to digitize and centralize all of your healthcare management on one cloud-based platform. It provides a secure and simple solution to input patient data as well as monitor, organize and track all government and NGO health programs.
Additionally, we provide a host of external medical devices which provide remote e-Health services, such as: blood pressure, heartrate, e-consultations, prescription... All e-Health services and personal health records are accessible by the patient, with simultaneous oversight & guidance of a remote healthcare professional.
Every year PSMJ does a forecast of the various architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) markets. This year, we present PSMJ’s A/E/C Market Outlook: How do the A/E/C Markets Look in 2016 and Beyond? This report covers A/E/C industry and market trends for 2015 and 2016.
We begin by looking at trends in the overall economy–especially those trend that affect A/E/C firms. Next, we detail what is happening specifically in the A/E/C industry right now.
Then we present our outlook for next year and beyond—what we think is going to happen in the various market sectors. We look at which markets are up and which markets are down.
And finally, we conclude with recommendations on what A/E/C firms should to do to be successful in 2016 and beyond.
Thailand Blockchain Community InitiativeRein Mahatma
“Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward”
Keynote Address by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob
Governor of the Ban of Thailand
Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018
5 June 2018 / Singapore
"Highlights":
Wage growth continues
Private consumption behind GDP growth
Situation in lending is improving
"In Focus":
The right moment to put the budget in order. Press conference of the Governor of Latvijas Banka (summary) – Ilmārs Rimšēvičs
Economic growth is slowing downGlobalization contributes many.docxtidwellveronique
Economic growth is slowing down
Globalization contributes many advantages to the global economy. The global boom is the result from globalization. Economy had a rapid growth after 1990s. But the globalization also carries some problems to the economic. As a result, the economic growth is slowing down in recent years.
In the article The steam has gone out of globalization, the author states that the globalization is leading our economy to a new era called “slowbalisation”. The economy has a robust growth during the golden age of the globalization in 1990-2010. But the economic growth rate become slower in recently years because the benefits from the globalization is almost used up. The cost of shipping has stop falling, multinational firms find a hard time survive in both global markets and the local markets. Meanwhile activity is shifting towards service, which is harder to trade across the borders. Those are the factors cause the slowbalisation. And globalization remains many issues that slow the economy down in the recent years.
First, the decline of the total investment in the market caused the economic growth to slow down. Investment is a very significant factor that effect the long-term aggregate supply. If the long-term aggregate supply doesn’t increase, the rise in the aggregate demand will cause inflation but not economic growth. Moreover, the high geopolitical risk makes firms unwilling to put investment in countries and industries that carry high risk. In the article, “global value of cross-border investment by multinational companies sank by about 20% in 2018” (Slowbalisation, page 2 para 3). And the decline in the payoff of from the investment also slow down the economy. Globalization bring the production cost significantly lowered than before. But after the cost of shipping has stop falling and the labor cost can not be reduced, firms can not lower the production cost anymore therefore lower the total payoff from investment. This means a country need to put more money in the investment in order to reach the same economic growth as before, which is not sustainable (Ip).
Since the benefits from the globalization become less significant, trade conflict between two countries become more ordinary in recent years that reduce the chance of cooperation in economic and slow down the economic. Country like the United States is now putting more attention to the domestic economic growth rather than the global economic growth. Trade conflict between U.S. and China is the trigger for the latest slowing (Ip). Moreover, the high tariff set by the U.S. government even hurt its small domestic business because of the increasing cost in production (Guo). As a result, trade behavior between countries will become more regional.
The divergent monetary policies between America and the rest of the world will hurt the economy in the emerging markets. The Federal Reserve has already raised the interest rate 8 times while the European Central Bank ha.
Trade Nivesh Is A Best Known SEBI Registered Investment Advisor In Indore, We Provide Best In Class Equity And Commodity Trading Tips Get Registered For A Free Trial For Intraday And Positional Calls.
This is a very risky preposition. The forecast should be revisited annually rather than assuming no economic downturn through 2019.
Fiscal Pressures. Given the relatively small budget shortfalls projected by IBO for 2017-2019 and the sizable reserves contained in the Mayor’s financial plan—including general reserves of $1 billion annually and $2.6 billion in the Retiree Health Benefits Trust—the city’s fiscal outlook remains solid. But this outlook presumes no economic downturn through 2019. If that forecast holds the city will have gone an unprecedented 10 years without a recession.
The NIFTY 50 Index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark expansive based securities exchange index for the Indian value showcase. In Nifty50 Cash Services Trade Nivesh provide you Nifty Intraday Trading Tips with High Profit Levels.
Borrowing costs for middle-market debt issuers generally declined during the third quarter, despite a modest increase in leverage levels and little change in benchmark rates. The Fed, as expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, but did announce a program to gradually reduce its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing) to $3 trillion over the next three years. Thus, the prevailing combination of low borrowing costs, high leveragability and a generally benign default rate outlook, presents an attractive backdrop for issuance. This "perfect storm" of market conditions provides a compelling (albeit narrowing) window for middle-market issuers.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
1. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 1
Total Asset Partners Year End Review
January 2017
For the year 2016 our Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 7.53% gross, 6.34% net. Returns for the year
reflected a solid contribution from our equity portfolio that offset losses in municipal bonds, which took the
biggest hit when fixed income markets sold off after the election. Returns for the fourth quarter came in at 0.83%
gross, 0.26% net.
We remain focused on providing an attractive and growing level of income with a positive real total return after
inflation, taxes, and expenses. As you can see in the chart below, which we introduced in our third quarter letter,
our net returns year-to-date have surpassed the Barclay’s Total Return Fixed Income Aggregate by 3.7%, have
been competitive with the S&P 500, which came in at 11.9%, and posted a real return of 4.24% over year-to-date
CPI of 2.1% through December. We have achieved these results with limited volatility month to month.
Seaport Total Asset Partners
as of December 31, 2016
Comparative Year-to-Date Returns for Total Asset Partners,
S&P 500, and Barclay’s Aggregate Total Return
Politics and Economics
Contrary to expectations in 2016, Brexit passed, Trump won the election, 10-year Treasury yields rose 100 basis
points from the end of July, inflation year-over-year accelerated from under 1% to over 2%, and the Chicago Cubs
won the World Series! One would expect markets to suffer losses in face of such uncertainty, but the S&P 500,
which closed under 6% for the year at the end of October, finished the year up 11.9%. So much for consensus
forecasts, including ours!
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
TAF
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2. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 2
Over the past 12 months, we have taken a cautious stance in managing our portfolio. Global economic growth
has been anemic, valuations expensive, and market liquidity tight throughout the year. Whatever your political
views, the results of the election will change the national political agenda and rearrange the various political
coalitions in the government. The ultimate outcomes of this regime change are impossible to predict, but we
believe they are likely to be positive for growth. A broad consensus appears to be emerging on the need for tax
reform, investment in infrastructure, and deregulation—and the Republican party has the levers of power to
implement all three.
Investment in infrastructure is a clear and present need. In 2015 some 10% of the 610,000 bridges in the U.S.,
serving daily over 200 million drivers, were rated structurally deficient. At current levels of maintenance
expenditures, it will take almost 20 years to replace them. The American Society of Civil Engineers reports that
32% of our major roads are in poor condition and gives the U.S. a D+ for infrastructure.
Trump has quoted a $1 trillion target for investment in infrastructure over the next 10 years. With the time
required to pass the necessary legislation and clear regulatory hurdles, little of this is likely to occur in 2017, but
once the programs are in place, the level of investment could reach 0.5% of GDP, which is a meaningful number
in an economy that has experienced growth of just 2.2% since 2009.
On the subject of deregulation, the cost of compliance with federal regulations in 2015 was estimated at $1.9
trillion according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s annual survey. The number of pages in the Federal
Register, which details every rule and regulation passed by Congress, has almost tripled since the 1970’s, and the
cost of compliance almost certainly higher today with the regulatory burden of the Affordable Care Act. Small
businesses, which account for 50% of all new jobs, are closing at a faster rate than they are opening. Regulation
is consistently cited as one of the most significant concerns in surveys of small business owners by The National
Federation of Small Business. Any reduction in regulatory compliance can’t help but have a positive impact on
new business formation and growth.
Two components to the broad based corporate tax reform currently under discussion: repatriation of overseas
cash balances and lower corporate tax rates. We don’t believe that repatriating corporate cash will increase
business investment in the face of limited pricing power and anemic revenue growth. A more likely outcome is
the cash will be used to reduce debt and finance share buybacks. Corporate balance sheets and reported earnings
per share will benefit, but the impact on economic growth will be marginal.
Unlike repatriation of overseas cash, lower corporate tax rates should support both growth and wages. Among
188 countries surveyed by the Tax Foundation, the U.S. has the third highest corporate tax rate at 35%. Since
2000, most major trading partners of the U.S. have lowered corporate tax rates. While large multi-national
companies have the resources and international domiciles to reduce taxes through sophisticated legal structures,
this option has not been available to a broad swath of domestic American businesses. The inverse relationship
between corporate tax rates, wages, and new business formation has been well documented.
Trump has also proposed lowering marginal rates for individuals while broadening the tax base by eliminating
many currently available deductions. In the past, such changes in tax policies have been politically challenging to
implement because any tax cut will benefit the wealthy when those with income in the top 20% pay more than
80% of total individual income taxes. However, a tax regime, such as the one outlined by Treasury Secretary
Mnuchin that offsets tax cuts for the wealthy with the elimination of deductions and directs the majority of
3. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 3
benefits to the middle class, would be positive for growth since middle class wage earners tend to spend their
disposable income while those in the top 20% will save a much larger portion of any incremental income they
receive.
Despite what could be highly favorable policies of the new administration, a populist policy of trade protectionism,
to which the president appears to be committed, raises the specter of a trade war that could seriously undermine
global and thereby domestic economic growth. That does not mean that changes in incentives to encourage
domestic production, such as the border adjustments under discussion in the press, might accomplish similar
objectives without the adversarial character and consequences of protectionist policies. However, the knock on
effects of such policies on the dollar and inflation are difficult to predict and could be highly disruptive.
Secular Trends
Demographics, excessive sovereign debt, and declining productivity have impeded the pace of economic growth
and slowed the recovery that began in June 2009. With the decline in birth rates since 1960, the growth of the
labor force has slowed dramatically across most industrialized markets as their populations have grown older. It
was excessive debt in the private sector to finance a housing bubble that caused the financial crisis and the ensuing
recession of 2008-2009. The policies put in place in response transferred significant portions of this debt from
private to public balance sheets. At the same time six years of artificially low interest rates have encouraged
borrowing, driving private and public debt to record levels.
To reduce real debt burdens, central banks are likely to keep interest rates low and tolerate higher inflation. A
strong U.S. dollar from higher rates would threaten domestic manufacturing and employment, creating political
risk in the current populist environment. Statements from the Fed to let the economy run hot should be taken
seriously, which suggest the Fed will tolerate higher inflation rather than put any economic expansion at risk with
higher interest rates.
Over the next several years, deflationary forces are likely to recede as inflation picks up. The degree to which real
growth follows depends, of course, on productivity gains and a successful implementation of the Administration’s
economic programs. From the perspective of the market, however, there is no trend to take the place of the
spectacular decline in interest rates from over 15% to under 2% that occurred over the past 30 years and took
fixed income and equity valuations to historically expensive levels. Periods of extreme valuation are followed by
periods of low returns. Investors who expect the experience of the past 30 years to repeat itself are likely to be
disappointed.
Economic Outlook
After a weak start, domestic growth in 2016 staged a modest recovery over the balance of the year. Real growth
came in at 1.6% for 2016 after the fourth quarter fell short of expectations due to a drop in exports. On a positive
note, final sales to domestic purchasers, excluding inventories and exports, grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter, up
from 2.1% in third.
We believe growth in the US economy this year will fall in the range of 2% to 2.5%. With little slack remaining in
the labor market, rising wages should continue to support growth in real incomes and personal consumption. A
recovery in the energy sector and in manufacturing after a protracted inventory destocking cycle should support
4. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 4
a modest increase in capital spending. Significant commitments to capital investments, however, will be delayed
until the outline and timing of anticipated changes in tax and fiscal policy become clearer.
After several years of false starts, there is a reasonable likelihood we will see two hikes in interest rates this year
by the Fed. Meanwhile Libor continues to move higher with the benchmark 3-month rate now over 1% versus
0.61% at the beginning of 2016; the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 1.78% before the election to 2.36%; and
the U.S. monetary base, which has been contracting at over 11% year-over-year since the end of September, is
down over 10% since the beginning of 2016. So far, the data does not indicate any significant threat of inflation
in the near or intermediate term.
The recession in corporate profits appears to have ended after 5 quarters of negative comparisons. We expect a
gradual improvement in revenue growth, but a strong U.S. dollar will suppress pricing power for exports, while
profit margins will come under pressure from increased wages, higher cost of energy, and to a lesser extent higher
interest rates.
A strong U.S. dollar poses the greatest risk to growth and market returns in 2017. By several measures the dollar
appears overvalued, in some cases by as much as 20%. Any appreciation in the dollar poses risks to the domestic
economy and the emerging market issuers of dollar-denominated debt. The Federal Reserve recognizes this risk
and is likely err on the side of caution in raising rates. Nevertheless, the broad consensus of market commentators
expects the dollar to remain strong, if not strengthen, which increases systemic risk from reverses in capital flows
should the consensus prove wrong.
Portfolio Strategy and Structure
Expectations for the economy have improved with the election and investors have bid up stocks, sold fixed income
securities, and bought the dollar. Unfortunately, new policies that get actually get implemented will have minimal
impact in 2017 while debate over trade policy, tax reform, and the budget will likely fuel volatility.
Across the spectrum in fixed income, most asset prices remain distorted by negative real interest rates with a
quarter of the global fixed income assets trading at nominal (forget about real) negative yields. In the U.S, equity
valuations rank in the 9th and 10th quartiles of virtually every measure of value that we follow.
The chart on the next page, which we introduced in our last quarterly letter, plots enterprise value to net capital
and 12-month rolling forward returns for the S&P 500 from 1990 through September 2016. We’ve chosen
enterprise value to net capital as our valuation benchmark because it is based on physical assets and liabilities
that can be measured precisely, unlike net income, which includes estimates and other arbitrary assumptions. It
is a more stable valuation measure since it can be negative only under rare circumstances. Finally, companies do
not trade below their net capital for long periods unless there are significant assets of questionable and hard-to-
determine value on their balance sheets. Consider this a simpler version of Tobin’s Q Ratio, which measures
market capitalization of stock to their replacement value, but requires a vastly greater number of estimates than
enterprise value to net capital.
The other element of the chart plots the 12-month forward returns for the S&P 500. In other words, for each
point on the chart we’ve calculated the rolling return for the next 12 months. A comparison of the two series
demonstrates the common sense point that lower future returns naturally follow higher valuations.
5. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 5
At the end of December, the S&P 500 closed trading at an enterprise/net capital valuation of 1.51x. As you can
see in the chart below, this comes close to the top of the range, leaving aside the elevated valuations that
accompanied the telecom internet boom of the late 1990’s. We don’t consider this to be a tool for market timing,
but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that equities are trading at historically high levels.
S&P 500 Enterprise Value to Net Capital versus
SPX Forward 12-month Returns, 1990-2016
Source: Bloomberg, Seaport Investment Management
Against this backdrop, we enter 2017 with a just over a third of the portfolio in equities with a below market beta
of 0.91 and above market yield of 3.1%. We have also maintained a defensive position in fixed income, which has
limited exposure to rising interest rates with duration of 1.6 and a solidly investment grade average quality, as
you can see in the table below.
Seaport Total Asset Partners
as of December 31, 2016
Exposure and Contribution to Gross Portfolio Returns by Asset Class
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
12monthforwardrollingreturn
enterprisevaluetonetcapital
enterprise
value/net capital
forward 12-mo SPX
rolling return
gross returns
category asset class exposure beta duration yield rating ytd ytd contrib
Fixed Income Credit 36.7% 0.09 0.83 2.8% BBB2 3.61% 1.21%
Mortgage 8.7% 0.03 3.01 2.4% B1 4.08% 0.48%
Muni 4.6% 0.18 5.51 4.9% BBB1 4.60% 0.23%
Fixed Income Total 50.0% 0.09 1.64 2.9% BBB3 3.82% 1.91%
Equity Equity 26.3% 0.94 - 2.3% 14.60% 4.09%
MLP 3.9% 0.86 - 5.7% 28.16% 0.95%
REIT 4.5% 0.79 - 4.9% 7.91% 0.33%
Options (0.4%) 1.20 - - 12.98% 0.16%
Equity Total 34.3% 0.91 - 3.1% 15.02% 5.53%
Commodity Commodity 1.1% 0.14 - - 6.77% 0.10%
Commodity Total 1.1% 0.14 - - 6.77% 0.10%
Cash Cash 14.6% - - - AAA - -
Cash Total 14.6% - - - AAA - -
Grand Total 100.0% 0.36 0.82 2.5% BBB1 7.54% 7.52%
6. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 6
The positions in the table below were the top 15 contributors to portfolio returns in 2016 and accounted for over
half of the gross return before fees and expenses of 7.52%. With the exception of the DoubleLine closed end
credit and mortgage fund, the rest were high yielding equities from 11 different industries that benefitted from
attractive valuations at the beginning of the year. Many of them are positions we have held over several years.
Three of them—Brookfield Infrastructure Partnership Units, Macquarie Infrastructure Common Stock, and SJW
Corp Common Stock—reflect our longstanding secular focus on companies that will benefit from positions in
infrastructure and water supplies.
Seaport Total Asset Partners
as of December 31, 2016
Top 15 Contributors to Portfolio Returns
Equities (34%)
Equity exposure, which includes equities, MLP’s, REITs, and options, held more or less steady at 34%-35% over the
fourth quarter. As a measure of volatility relative to the market, the beta of our equity portfolio increased
marginally from 0.87 to 0.91, versus 1.0 for the S&P 500 (the beta for the entire portfolio is 0.35).
To increase our exposure to water utilities and service providers, we added two new positions in the fourth
quarter. The first, Consolidated Water Company, operates desalination plants in the Bahamas and several
emerging market countries. We believe that operational mistakes in Indonesia have been resolved and that the
company is moving steadily towards completion of a transaction to build and operate a large desalinization plant
in Rosarita Mexico that will supply Baja and San Diego markets, both of which are coping with water shortages.
This contract represents a catalyst that would lead to a revaluation of the stock on the back of a substantial
increase in earnings. Currently, Consolidated Water yields 3% and trades slightly above book value at a discount
to other water utilities.
Our second addition is Econolab, a specialty chemical company that supplies a broad range of chemicals used to
purify and process water across a broad range of industries. Econolab should benefit from increasing secular
demand for water products and services. The stock currently yields 1.25% and anticipated dividends are expected
to grow 6%-8% over the next several years.
security
asset
class industry exposure
ytd
return
ytd
contrib
Spectra Energy Common Stock Equity Pipelines 1.1% 65.0% 0.55%
DoubleLine Income CEF (DSL) Credit Global Total Return 1.9% 30.3% 0.48%
SJW Corp Common Stock Equity Utilities 1.0% 65.3% 0.43%
Time Warner Common Stock Equity Broadcasting & Cable 0.9% 49.9% 0.35%
AmeriGas Partners MLP MLP Pipelines 0.9% 42.2% 0.34%
Xylem Common Stock Equity Diversified Manufacturing 0.9% 38.3% 0.31%
Brookfield Infrastructure Ptnrship Units MLP Utilities 0.9% 38.9% 0.28%
Republic Services Common Stock Equity Environmental 1.0% 31.0% 0.26%
BlackRock CE Bank Debt Fund (FRA) Credit US Corporates 1.5% 18.7% 0.25%
Macquarie Infrastructure Common Stock Equity Industrial Services 1.0% 25.6% 0.21%
SunTrust Banks Common Stock Equity Banking 0.6% 58.4% 0.21%
Seaboard Corp Common Stock Equity Food & Beverage 0.7% 38.9% 0.18%
Everest Re Common Stock Equity Insurance 0.9% 20.9% 0.17%
Alleghany Corp Common Stock Equity Insurance 0.7% 27.1% 0.17%
Ventas REIT REIT Real Estate 0.8% 20.2% 0.17%
Total 14.5% 37.0% 4.36%
7. Registered Investment Advisor
Seaport Investment Management www.seaportIM.com 844.249.9463 7
To expand our exposure to companies operating or building infrastructure we added Heidelberg Cement and
8Point3 Energy Partners L.P. Heidelberg Cement is positioned to benefit from infrastructure spending in both the
U.S and global markets. We believe management’s announced strategy to double earnings and cash flow is
achievable, even though the stock trades at a discount to its peer group and yields 1.5%.
8Point3 Energy Partners L.P operates solar energy facilities serving residential, commercial, and industrial users.
With dramatic increases in solar efficiency and battery storage solar energy is becoming more competitive with
other sources of electricity. The stock yields 7% with the potential for low double digit increases in the distribution
over the next several years.
Fixed Income (50%)
We increased our exposure to fixed income securities in the fourth quarter from 45% to 50% primarily through
short maturity bonds to achieve higher returns than we can earn on excess cash balances, which we reduced from
20% to 15%. In a period of rising interest rates, we remain understandably cautious towards investment grade
corporate debt. Long term debt issued by the S&P 500 companies has risen 75% since 2010 and leverage ratios
have risen to levels that appear excessive at this late stage of the business cycle. The rating agencies have taken
notice and downgrades have increased. We continue to manage our fixed income risk actively with a short
position in the iShares Investment Grade ETF (LQD), currently at 2.3% of the total portfolio and 24% of portfolio
duration. LQD reduces the duration of our fixed income holdings by that amount and limits our exposure to rising
interest rates and widening credit spreads.
The incremental yield offered by non-agency mortgage and high yield bonds has narrowed substantially over the
past year, and, in aggregate, offers little in the way of returns beyond the current yield. Our positions in these
sectors are determined by individual issue selection, rather than a broader allocation to the sectors, which are
trading a historically rich levels.
In contrast to mortgages and high yield, which have managed to hold their value, municipal bonds were hit hard
after the election. Proposed cuts to individual tax rates would not only reduce the value of the municipal tax
exemption, but would also weaken the credit quality of hospitals and states from any repeal of the Affordable
Care Act. These concerns drove the ratio of municipal to treasury yield to the highest levels since the summer of
2015.
The biggest factor affecting the magnitude and duration of any move higher in municipal yields may be where
corporate tax rates land. At a 20%-25% tax rate, insurance companies and banks, the most significant corporate
buyers, would demand higher yields to compensate for lower rates after taxes. The cost to us of the market
adjustment to a lower corporate tax rate is less than the capital gains we would have to pay if we sold our
municipal holdings. We continue to avoid issuers with substantial unfunded pension obligations while seeking
opportunities from potential dislocations in this sector.